2018 - Dynamic Cities · Dynamic Cities considers energy, sanitation, buildings, transport as well as information infrastructure, which is gaining in importance. The index examines

2018

[email protected]

Kiran PatelGlobal Chief Investment Officer

Irfan Younus Head of Research, Europe

Judith FischerRegional focus: Benelux

Nicole Bångstad Regional focus: Nordics

Benedict Lai Regional focus: Asia-Pacific

Victoria OrmondRegional focus: Spain, United Kingdom

Andreas Trumpp Regional focus: Germany, Poland

Hilary Waterman Regional focus: Ireland

VISIT THE WEBSITE

dynamiccities.savillsim.com

Europe stands among the most urbanised regions on the globe. Trends in urbanisation are increasingly important for investors. However, not all cities are equal. With the predicted growth of disruptive technology, it is vital to identify locations that will show resilience to change.

PREFACEThe Savills Investment Management Dynamic Cities index incorporates cities’ longer-term upwards growth potential rather than focus on the one- to two-year, shorter-term real estate cycle.

Using 60 indicators across 6 subcategories, Savills Investment Management has identified London, Cambridge, Paris, Amsterdam and Berlin as the top five European cities for real estate investment.

These winning cities are enjoying infrastructure investments and well-developed knowledge networks. They are supported by a backdrop of universities and enterprise that are influencing innovation.

The cities boast a global talent pool and have strong cultural amenities. Not only does that retain a workforce, but it also continues to attract highly skilled labour, generating innovation that creates wealth over the longer term.

The Dynamic Cities project allows investors to choose cities where most people want to work, rest and play. That can only be good for long-term real estate investment.

All three property sectors - office, retail and industrial - benefit from these characteristics. Rising employment helps support the office sector. Wealth creation is a positive for growing consumer expenditure, benefitting the variety of retail subsectors. Together with structural change in the form of e-commerce and trends in last-mile delivery, the demand for the industrial sector can only be positive.

KIRAN PATEL

Global Chief Investment Officer

Savills Investment Management

2018

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2018

2 3

http://dynamiccities.savillsim.com

Contents

LONDON• Page 18

CAMBRIDGE• Page 20

PARIS• Page 22

AMSTERDAM• Page 24

BERLIN• Page 26

DUBLIN• Page 28

MUNICH• Page 30

OXFORD• Page 32

BASEL• Page 34

STOCKHOLM• Page 36

14.Future proofingcities through ESG

16. 2018 top 10 dynamic cities

10. What makes adynamic city

06. Top 40 dynamic cities

08. Methodology

12. Why dynamic cities matters for commercialreal estate

2018

4 54 5

RANK 2018 RANK 2017 CITY COUNTRY

1 1 London England

2 3 Cambridge England

3 2 Paris France

4 4 Amsterdam The Netherlands

5 5 Berlin Germany

6 7 Dublin Ireland

7 6 Munich Germany

8 14 Oxford England

9 15 Basel Switzerland

10 8 Stockholm Sweden

11 10 Zurich Switzerland

12 9 Edinburgh Scotland

13 16 Lausanne Switzerland

14 19 Copenhagen Denmark

15 24 Luxembourg City Luxembourg

16 25 Bristol England

17 21 Frankfurt am Main Germany

18 12 Vienna Austria

19 13 Oslo Norway

20 11 Madrid Spain

RANK 2018 RANK 2017 CITY COUNTRY

21 17 Barcelona Spain

22 18 Brussels Belgium

23 20 Geneva Switzerland

24 22 Bern Switzerland

25 23 Prague Czech Republic

26 28 Helsinki Finland

27 26 Hamburg Germany

28 29 Reykjavik Iceland

29 27 Manchester England

30 - Gothenburg Sweden

31 40 Newcastle upon Tyne England

32 34 Milan Italy

33 31 Belfast Northern Ireland

34 - Cardiff Wales

35 - Eindhoven The Netherlands

36 37 Trondheim Norway

37 36 Bergen Norway

38 35 Reading England

39 30 Birmingham England

40 38 Stavanger Norway

2018

6 7

TOP 40DYNAMIC CITIES

6 7

2018

8 9

METHODOLOGY

CATEGORIES

INNOVATION

Connectivity

Digital, local, national and international connectivity

Commuting

Factors related to commuting and congestion

Local connectivity

Local transport indicators less

transport projects underway

Transport infrastructure improvements

Transport infrastructure under execution, in both

absolute and relative terms

INTERCONNECTION INFRASTRUCTURE

INSPIRATION

Future population

Captures future human capital

Current infrastructure

Includes human and digital Infrastructure

Governance

A composite score of different risk and governance factors

Infrastructure spending

Includes number of transport, energy, sanitation, digital, housing, amenities and other projects relative to population size

Parks & cafes

A composite of the number of high quality parks and cafes within the city limits

Engagement

The measure of how readily a city’s population

engages in arts and culture

Arts sector strength

The overall strength of a city's arts and culture sectors in comparison to other cities

Culture

The density of cultural events, local activities and

social entertainment relative to a city's population

Liveability

Indicators of contentment with living in a city

Resources

Indicators of the strength of resources such as successful funding or

universities that promote innovation

Activity

A measure of the level of Innovation activity

Patents

A composite measure of absolute and relative density of patent generation

INCLUSION

Magnet & purchasing power

Given that there is generally a positive correlation between a city’s cost of living and apparent attractiveness, spending power indicators are used to capture relative affordability

Participation

Indicators related to the level of grassroots activity

across demographics

Diversity

A composite of demographic indicators

Maneuvreability

Ability to travel around a city

INVESTMENT

Commercial real estate score

Indicators related to a city’s real estate market

liquidity and stock of sustainable buildings

Wealth

A composite measure of wealth indicators and driver of commercial real estate markets

Property activity

A composite indicator of commercial real estate activity

Population growth

A composite measure of predicted

demographic changes

Magnet & pollution

The degree that a city draws people from elsewhere who may return home in the future, combined with pollution that may impede walkability

Savills IM Dynamic Cities aims to capture the factors that make a city attractive to talent, resilient to disruptive technology and a leader in the knowledge economy.

The index was created using statistical analysis and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) handbook on constructing composite indicators.

More than 250 in-house, publicly available and externally purchased factors were collected for 130 cities. These cities include all of the European capitals as well as cities with a minimum metropolitan area of 250,000 inhabitants and positive forecast population growth.

The final index includes 60 inputs across 6 categories. The inputs range from conventional commercial real estate factors to wider urban economics indicators.

The data behind Dynamic Cities is from a combination of proprietary in-house calculations as well as publicly available and commercially provided sources. Key data providers include 2thinknow : City Benchmarking Data, Timetric and Oxford Economics. Data was collected during Q1 2018.

The model’s six categories are Investment, Innovation, Inspiration, Inclusion, Interconnection and Infrastructure. The index works on the basis that top cities for real estate investors demonstrate balanced performance across all of these categories.

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2018

10 11

WHAT MAKES A DYNAMIC CITY

INFRASTRUCTURE INTERCONNECTION INCLUSION INSPIRATION INNOVATION INVESTMENT

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?

Infrastructure is critical to support the sustainable expansion of a city’s population and physical size.

Governments may use infrastructure spending as a tool to stimulate economic growth and to earmark a city as having future potential.

Strong digital infrastructure is necessary to both utilise technological advancements and lead in technological innovation.

Human and intellectual capital as a form of infrastructure are crucial to supporting the knowledge economy.

Interconnection is necessary to link different players and entities within a city and to the wider world.

Without interconnection, inspiration and inclusion have limited ability to promote the transfer of ideas and drive to innovate. For example, economist Edward Glaeser highlights the importance of face-to-face contact to spur creativity, collaboration and innovation.

Good transport to and within a city helps reduce congestion, which carries with it the opportunity cost of lost time, productivity and utility.

A city that is well-connected physically also promotes even development and reduces the risk of spatial mismatch with pockets of high unemployment.

A globally connected city not only reduces human capital barriers to entrepreneurship, but also helps that city operate in the global marketplace.

Social and economic theorist Richard Florida espouses the benefit of tolerance, or what he labels an ‘open culture premium.’

An inclusive society promotes freedom of expression, a factor of inspiration that makes a city more attractive to talent.

Lower barriers to entry for human capital fosters a diversity of ideas and facilitates mobilisation of resources to support entrepreneurial activity within cities.

Diversity of experience and background also facilitates knowledge spillovers and effective problem solving.

Creative environments and pools of talented, open-minded individuals are essential to innovation taking hold.

Florida suggests that the ‘creative class’ generates an ‘aesthetic-amenity premium’ that culturally enhances one’s experience of a city and helps draw and retain urban populations.

Researcher Allen Scott suggests that creativity is ‘organically developed,’ and the Dynamic Cities model includes an indicator to capture this in the form of self-organised community groups.

Innovation, human capital and technology are central to economic growth theory.

Innovation is defined as the creation of new ideas, methods or things.

Technology, a by-product of innovation, enables productivity and capacity for growth.

Research and development (R&D) fosters this technological change and helps to future proof cities.

Although innovation has and will continue to disrupt existing sectors of the economy - for example, in the case of driverless cars or self-checkout machines in supermarkets - advanced technologies also create new employment categories and offer potential cost savings and scalability.

The innovation, inspiration, inclusion, interconnection and infrastructure that characterise Europe’s dynamic cities contribute to wealth creation, sustainability and long-term population growth, all of which are fundamental drivers of commercial real estate.

Taken together, measures of these six ‘i’s’ serve as a guide to the investment potential of European cities.

WHAT GOES INTO IT?

Dynamic Cities considers energy, sanitation, buildings, transport as well as information infrastructure, which is gaining in importance. The index examines both infrastructure in place and that under development.

Dynamic Cities also incorporates human and intellectual capital as forms of infrastructure - for example, by considering research institutions and forecast population growth.

Governance is also taken into account as an intangible form of infrastructure crucial for cities’ long-term performance.

Interconnection considers the strength of linkages within cities, globally and nationally, including the type and variability of transport in place and under development.

The index considers walkability as an important method of transport as well as a facilitator of engagement and interaction between residents and businesses, as espoused by urban studies theorist Jane Jacobs.

Interconnection also considers other connectivity indicators such as digital connectivity as well as spaces that promote interaction and collaboration, such as cafes and universities.

The underlying Dynamic Cities indicators draw on research showing that cultural and other types of diversity - for example, age, sexuality, job type or religion - have a positive correlation with wealth.

Factors such as strength of public transport to reduce spatial mismatch are also incorporated.

The index examines purchasing power rather than cost of living as an indicator of affordability, due to the strong positive correlation between diversity and wealth.

Dynamic Cities includes indicators related to liveability, culture, engagement, arts sector strength as well as parks and cafes.

In addition to capturing the number of green spaces accessible to a community, the category takes into account the quality of those spaces and, therefore, their capacity to inspire.

This category includes indicators of a city’s resources to innovate. For example, cities with well-established universities encourage innovation, often help bring research to the commercial realm and promote agglomeration effects.

The index considers a city’s absolute number and density of patents generated as well as other indicators of innovation activity, such as start-ups.

The Investment category looks at a series of wealth indicators, a city’s current real estate investment activity, its pool of officially green-rated buildings and its real estate pipeline currently under construction.

HOW IS IT VALUABLE TO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE?

Multichannel retail requires well-functioning virtual infrastructure, while developments in online shopping and last-mile delivery mean physical infrastructure is increasingly important.

Reliable and powerful electricity supplies are also essential to logistics units that use automation.

Population size influences demand for office markets and creates critical mass for retail.

Strong governance is important to support the investment market, facilitating transactions and supporting investor rights.

Interconnection ultimately fosters innovation, supporting the wealth and growth important for all commercial real estate sectors.

In the age of big data, digital connectivity is of growing importance to companies, from retailers to financial institutions.

Agglomeration effects combined with well-linked transport foster the development of new office and research centres in cities such as Paris and Berlin.

Logistics benefits lower-congestion methods of moving goods.

Studies have demonstrated that inclusion has a positive causal effect on a region’s income and real estate values.

Making a city more attractive to a wider cohort of firms and individuals is likely to increase demand for commercial and residential real estate.

Cross-group engagement also fosters a diversity of ideas and knowledge spillovers, encouraging innovation and wealth creation, which is positive for real estate.

The subfactors included in the Inspiration category are important to attract and retain talent, which supports wealth, population growth and, in turn, commercial real estate markets.

A weight of literature links the presence of creative groups in an area to localised real estate price growth.

The extent of cultural amenities and green spaces in a city are also shown to have a direct correlation with demand for space.

A strong knowledge economy underpinned by innovation helps future proof a city against structural obsolescence, helping support commercial real estate markets over the longer term.

Innovation supports the creation of new firms, which in turn increases demand for office space and R&D laboratories.

A city with innovative critical mass also creates a centripetal force of talent attraction, and resulting productivity can lead to wealth and spending power.

Wealth creation, sustainability and long-term population growth are drivers of commercial real estate performance.

Market depth and development are also important to cities’ future investment potential.

10 11

WHY DYNAMIC CITIES MATTERS FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

2018

12 13

Wealth and population trends, particularly employment, drive successful commercial real estate markets. The factors underpinning the Dynamic Cities index are those identified as able to attract and retain talent, spur innovation and increase productivity, which encourage wealth and population growth.

Dynamic Cities index is forward looking, assessing whether cities have the foundations for future strong performance, but their history can illustrate how many of these cities are already outperforming.

Over the last 20 years, the top 10 dynamic cities have collectively outperformed the EU-28 overall in terms of GDP (figure 1) and employment (figure 2), providing a strong backdrop for real estate performance. This outperformance is not limited to just strong economics, however.

By taking the major investible European real estate markets (as reported by PMA, excluding Moscow) and categorising these as a top 10 dynamic city, top 40 dynamic city or neither, we have analysed the trend of prime annual total returns for the core commercial real estate sectors since the start of the millennium.

FIGURE 1: GDP INDEX 1997-2017

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

1997

1998

1999

2000

2010

100

180

EU - 28Top 10 cities

FIGURE 2: EMPLOYMENT INDEX

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

1997

1998

1999

2000

2010

100

135

EU - 28Top 10 cities

Sources: Oxford Economics, Savills Investment Management

Note: GDP and employment for the top 10 cities based on most local NUTS region for London, Cambridge, Paris, Amsterdam, Berlin, Dublin, Munich, Oxford, Basel and Stockholm; 1997=100

FIGURE 3: PRIME ANNUAL OFFICES TOTAL RETURN TREND LINES 2000-17 (%)

Other citiesTop 40 citiesTop 10 cities

2001

2002

2003

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2006

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FIGURE 4: PRIME ANNUAL LOGISTICS TOTAL RETURN TREND LINES 2000-17 (%)


2001

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FIGURE 5: PRIME ANNUAL HIGH STREET TOTAL RETURN TREND LINES 2000-17 (%)


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30

Sources: PMA, Savills Investment Management

Note: dashed lines indicate average prime annual total return for the major investible markets in each respective category. Solid lines are the long-term trend.

We find that while all cities experience cyclicality, dynamic cities demonstrate a stronger upwards trend in prime total returns for office, logistics and retail.

As illustrated in figures 3-5, for all three commercial real estate markets, the top 10 dynamic cities demonstrate the strongest upwards trend in prime total returns, followed by the top 40 cities, which have a stronger upwards trend than the major investible European markets not in the top 40.

Due to availability of data, we have only analysed the prime total returns for a subset of larger cities analysed in our Dynamic Cities index. However, we might expect the smaller, up-and-coming cities ranked highly by the index – for example, Cambridge and Basel – to offer similar enhanced real estate performance in the future. This is because they enjoy strength in the factors needed to retain talent, support a growing population and optimise wealth.

Long-term performance improvement becomes more important in the context of secular stagnation, or lower-for-longer growth trends. As total returns moderate, identifying those cities that will outperform over the long term is key. Dynamic Cities aims to highlight such cities.

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2018

14 15

FUTURE PROOFING CITIES THROUGH ESG

The Dynamic Cities index helps identify which European cities are best equipped to handle future economic and population growth trends in a sustainable way. ESG considerations are key to urban planning, as they serve to future proof cities by mitigating environmental risk, ensuring longevity and resilience.

LONDON IS HOME TO OUTSTANDING GREEN SPACES THAT I WANT TO PROTECT, INVEST IN AND IMPROVE AS WE AIM TO BECOME THE WORLD’S FIRST NATIONAL PARK CITY.

Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan

On average, top 10 Dynamic City host countries illustrate better governance than the Western European average, with a 21% better Corruption Perception Index score (80.3 vs. 66.4).

Source: Transparency International

World Economic Forum research has also demonstrated links between a city’s growth trends and level of social inclusion. The Dynamic Cities index examines social inclusion as a driver of entrepreneurialism and innovation via the promotion of social diversity and interest group participation.

Social spaces serve as meeting points and sources of inspiration in a city. There are established links between economic growth and factors that influence a city’s inspiration potential, measured by indicators such as number of cafes or green spaces, amount of litter or the extent of accessible cultural amenities that encourage social connectivity and knowledge spillovers.

Planned environmental and social initiatives will fall short in cities without good governance structures and processes in place. Effective governance underpins urban planning and development, influencing a diversity of city characteristics from levels of bribery and corruption; to socio-political impacts such as politically organised violence, social conflict, criminality, gangs and terrorism; to the need for planning regulations that are equitable, transparent and democratic.

Governance is crucial to ensure a city’s stability, resilience and propensity for economic growth. Consequently, the Savills IM Dynamic Cities Infrastructure category takes into account governance measures.

Air pollution

According to the World Health Organisation, outdoor air pollution caused an estimated 4.2 million premature deaths worldwide in 2016. City mayors are unsurprisingly focusing more and more on ambient air pollution and its effects on citizens’ heath.

Particularly impactful to a city’s economic growth potential are elevated levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Dynamic Cities incorporates a measure of PM2.5 levels in its Interconnection category, as increased levels of ambient air pollution may inhibit movement of people, the extent to which they cross paths with other city dwellers as well as their likelihood of sharing ideas and forging connections, impacting a city’s economic growth.

There is increased awareness of the need to consider environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors at both the city and real estate asset levels.

Urban planning with ESG in mind helps make cities more resilient to future shocks, and better able to achieve sustained economic growth. At the asset level, optimising ESG helps foster growth and future proof investor returns.

The Dynamic Cities model considers several environmental, social and governance elements that help set cities on paths to sustainable growth. Here, Lucy Auden, ESG Manager at Savills IM, explores which ESG factors are becoming increasingly important considerations for real estate investment.

Green transport infrastructure

Greener transport contributes significantly to the reduction of city dwellers’ carbon footprint, ambient air quality and health and wellbeing, promoting productivity. Dedicated bike routes, bike hire schemes, wider pavements and efficient public transport systems all increase the ease and safety with which people can commute carbon neutrally. Showers, lockers and bike storage are now commonplace in office buildings across Europe, and proximity to transport hubs increases property values and occupancy rates.

Increasingly, newly constructed residential blocks are limiting car parking spaces (with the exception of disabled access) in cities with sophisticated public transport systems that can draw citizens away from private vehicles and towards non-car-based transport. For example, in London, which has a robust public transport system, the number of cars per household has dropped steadily since 2008, according to Transport for London.

Low-carbon transport programs are particularly successful in Northern European cities, which benefit from high density, and where cars were not planned as the primary mode of transport. Low-carbon commuting is also linked to improved worker health, wellbeing and productivity, with research from the National Cycle Network suggesting a lower number of sick days for office workers who cycle to work.

The Savills IM Dynamic Cities index considers the benefits of lower-carbon transport as part of its Interconnection measure.

ENVIRONMENTAL

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

LONDON CAMBRIDGE PARIS AMSTERDAM BERLIN DUBLIN MUNICH OXFORD BASEL STOCKHOLM

ug/m

3

European average

SOCIAL GOVERNANCE

FUTURE PROOFING CITIES THROUGH

ESG

ANNUAL MEAN LEVELS OF PM2.5 IN TOP 10 DYNAMIC CITIES

Sources: World Health Organisation, Cambridge City Council, Savills Investment Management14 15

2018

16 17

London

Paris

Amsterdam

MunichBasel

Berlin

Stockholm

Dublin

Cambridge

Oxford

All of the top 10 cities saw an increase in their overall scores this year, apart from London, which declined by 1 point.1 However, LONDON comfortably retains the top ranking for the second year running, leading the way in all of the 6 categories apart from Inclusion, for which it ranks 3rd.

CAMBRIDGE moved up one place to 2nd this year, swapping places with PARIS (3rd), which continues to improve in terms of underlying scores. Cambridge particularly outperforms on density of grassroots organisations related to technology and the arts. The city also has the highest density of start-ups relative to population out of the 130 cities included in the index, according to 2thinknow : City Benchmarking Data.

AMSTERDAM and BERLIN maintain their places in the top 5. DUBLIN moved up one place to 6th, and MUNICH down one place to 7th. Dublin’s population has a high density of grassroots organisations and a strong university presence supporting its improving Innovation indicators. Munich also demonstrates improvement on many indicators.

OXFORD and BASEL, ranked 8th and 9th, respectively, are both new entrants into the top 10 this year.

1 See respective city pages for score breakdowns or visit dynamiccities.savillsim.com/city-rankings to compare scores across cities and categories.

Oxford has been earmarked by the UK government for 100,000 new homes and represents the western point of the ‘golden triangle’ of leading research universities in the UK. The city has moved into the top 5 for Innovation, with strong grassroots participation and a high density of start-ups relative to population.

Basel sits in the top 5 for the majority of Dynamic Cities wealth indicators and has seen an increase in population growth forecasts. The city is also an Innovation hub, ranking second for overall density of patents relative to population.

Finally, STOCKHOLM takes the 10th place in this year’s index. While this represents a fall of two places, Stockholm’s overall score has improved. Furthermore, the Swedish capital remains in the top 5 cities for absolute level of patent generation.

In the top 10 last year, ZURICH and EDINBURGH fell slightly in the rankings for 2018, to 11th and 12th, respectively. However, the overall scores for both cities have improved, as have their performances in categories such as Innovation and Investment.

2018TOP 10 Dynamic Cities

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http://dynamiccities.savillsim.com/city-rankings

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8

1

London Underground

Docklands Light Railway

Elizabeth line

Transport for London

CASE STUDYPlacemaking in the Greenwich Peninsula area

The Greenwich Peninsula is centrally located in London’s zone 2, one tube stop east of the 1 Canary Wharf financial services

hub. This formerly undeveloped area is rapidly transforming into a place for living and working as well as recreation. At the tip of the peninsula sits one of the busiest indoor event arenas in the world, 2 The O2, which will soon also include a new designer fashion outlet. Additionally, 3 Peninsula Place, the planned GBP

1 billion tower designed by architect Santiago Calatrava, will house a new transport hub, performance venue and winter gardens, complementing office space and other leisure attractions.

The region is already well connected by tube, bus and boat services as well as by the more recent 4 Emirates Air Line, a cable

car link to the 5 ExCeL London exhibitions and convention centre.

The Elizabeth line, scheduled to open later this year, will improve underground connectivity to the peninsula. Planning permission has also been granted for a 6 London City Cruise Port at

Enderby Wharf.

More than 15,000 residential units are also planned for the area, with several of these schemes already completed. According to the Greater London Authority, the redevelopment will also include education and health care facilities, film and media studios, community spaces, a 5K running track and an updated Thames foot and cycle path.

The area at the base of the peninsula is already benefiting from the above placemaking, with the recently opened 7 Brocklebank Retail Park and 8 Ikea Greenwich, which will be

the first full-size store in London in 13 years, set to open by the end of 2018.

Infrastructure

Current Infrastructure

Governance

Infrastructure Spending

Future Population

Interconnection

Connectivity

Commuting

Transport Infrastructure

Improvements

Magnet & Pollution

Local Connectivity

Inclusion

Participation

Diversity

Maneuvreability

Magnet & Purchasing Power

Inspiration

Liveability

Culture

Engagement

Parks & Cafes

Arts Sector Strength

Innovation

Resources

Activity

Patents

InvestmentCommercial Real Estate Score

Wealth

Population Growth

Property Activity

2018

18 19

LONDON#1

INFRASTRUCTUREINTERCONNECTIONINCLUSION

INSPIRATIONINSPIRATIONINNOVATION

INSPIRATIONINNOVATIONINVESTMENT

97SCORE

10092

100100

100100

THE LONDON INFRASTRUCTURE 2050 PLAN INVOLVES MORE THAN GBP 1 TRILLION WORTH OF INVESTMENT COVERING HOUSING, TRANSPORT, DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND BASIC SERVICES.

Source: Savills Investment Management

NO.1 FOR INTERCONNECTION

NO.1 FOR INNOVATION

NO.1 FOR INVESTMENT

TOP 1O FOR INCLUSION

NO.1 FOR INSPIRATION

NO.1 FOR INFRASTRUCTURE

18 19

Infrastructure


Governance


Future Population

Interconnection

Connectivity

Commuting


Improvements

Magnet & Pollution

Local Connectivity

Inclusion

Participation

Diversity

Maneuvreability


Inspiration

Liveability

Culture

Engagement

Parks & Cafes


Innovation

Resources

Activity

Patents


Wealth

Population Growth

Property Activity

Historically centred around the

University of Cambridge, the city

of Cambridge is now the base for

the largest technology cluster in

Europe. Over 4,700 knowledge-

intensive firms are located in the

city, employing over 60,000 people

and generating more than GBP 12

billion in revenue.

The 1 Cambridge Science

Park to the north, 2 Cambridge

Biomedical Campus to the

south and 3 West Cambridge

research space for physical

sciences and technology are a

few examples of innovation hubs

outside the city centre. According

to the University of Cambridge,

the city has the highest density of

patent applications relative to UK

population. In fact, this density is

higher than that of the next four

cities combined.

Just 45 minutes by train from

London, the city’s connectivity

has further improved with the

opening of a second rail station, 4 Cambridge North, supporting

innovation hubs in this area. A

possible third station, near the

biomedical research hub south

of the city, is currently under

discussion. This could eventually

provide links to Milton Keynes and

Oxford.

The city’s employment growth

and large student population

have led to pressures on housing.

However, pressures are now

easing, with an average of 2,000

homes completing each year,

including developments such as 5 Trumpington Meadows and 6 North West Cambridge.

Innovation hubs, transportation nodes and residential developments outside Cambridge city centre


Cambridge City Centre

CAMBRIDGE INTERNATIONAL

AIRPORT

RIV

ER CA M

RIVER CAM

Trumpington Meadows

Cambridge Biomedical Campus

Cambridge Science Park

West Cambridge

North West Cambridge

Cambridge railway station

Cambridge North station

14

5

6

2

3

2018

20 2120 21

CAMBRIDGE#2




84SCORE

96

100

43

79

99

66

CAMBRIDGE IS HOME TO MORE THAN 4,700 KNOWLEDGE-INTENSIVE FIRMS, EMPLOYING 60,000 PEOPLE AND GENERATING MORE THAN GBP 12 BILLION IN REVENUE.

TOP 1O FOR INFRASTRUCTURE

TOP 1O FOR INNOVATION

TOP 1O FOR INSPIRATION

NO.1 FOR INCLUSION

line 17

line 11

line 16

line 15

line 14

line 18

Charles de GaulleAirport

To Le Bourget Airport

Clichy - Montfermeil

Le Bourget RER

Nanterre

Pont de Sèvres

Versailles Chantiers

Val-d’Oise

Yvelines

Essonne

Seine et-Marne

Massy Palaiseau TGV

Orly Airport

Noisy - Champs

Champigny CentreVillejuif Institut G. Roussy

Paris

La Défense

Les Groues

Saint-Denis Pleyel

Bobigny P. Picasso

Line 15 – new lineLine 16 – new lineLine 17 – new lineLine 18 – new lineLine 14 – extensionLine 11 – extension

Paris Metro

2

1

3

CASE STUDYThe Grand Paris project is stimulating new developments around stations

The Grand Paris project to develop

Greater Paris into a sustainable

metropolitan area involves the

construction of four new automatic

metro lines, plus the expansion of

two existing ones. The Grand Paris

timescale includes two phases,

the first of which will be delivered

in time for the Paris 2024 Summer

Olympics. The second phase will

complete by 2030. According to

JLL, the project will double the size

of the metro network by introducing

200 kilometres of new railway lines,

generating approximately 100,000

additional jobs.

The Grand Paris infrastructure

project will improve transport links

to 1 La Défense business district

and will stimulate new real estate

developments around metro stations.

According to JLL, 2 Les Groues, a

site one metro stop from La Défense,

has a development potential of

more than 600,000 square metres.

Expected to complete in the second

Grand Paris phase, Les Groues will

offer highly sought after residential

units as well as retail and office

buildings. The redevelopment offers

regeneration potential for a previously

isolated district.

JLL also reports that 3 Saint-Denis

Pleyel, the biggest station in the new

transportation network where four

new lines will cross, has attracted

two major urban developments: an

office, residential, hotel and retail

project alongside the SNCF railway,

plus an Olympic village occupying

51 hectares along the Seine. Post-

2024 Olympics, the village will be

converted into a mixed-use area

including a fabrication laboratory.

Sources: JLL, Savills Investment Management

2018

22 2322 23

PARIS#3

Infrastructure


Governance


Future Population

Interconnection

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Commuting


Improvements

Magnet & Pollution

Local Connectivity

Inclusion

Participation

Diversity

Maneuvreability


Inspiration

Liveability

Culture

Engagement

Parks & Cafes


Innovation

Resources

Activity

Patents


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Population Growth

Property Activity




84SCORE

7173

96

83

7984

PARIS IS ONE OF THE MOST LIQUID INVESTMENT MARKETS IN EUROPE, SECOND ONLY TO LONDON, WITH A DIVERSE INTERNATIONAL INVESTOR BASE.

TOP 1O FOR INTERCONNECTION



TOP 1O FOR INVESTMENT


AMSTERDAM ZUID TRAIN STATION

Vondelpark

Rembrandt Park

Amstelpark

Frankendael Park

AMSTERDAM CITY CENTRE

VALLEY

Mixed-use complex featuring green, terraced towers including of�ces, apartments retail and cultural offerings

Space for nearly 2,000 bicycles and hundreds of cars

HOURGLASS

Mixed-use building including multi-tenant of�ces and a long-term-stay hotel

Shopping, dining and parking space

THE GEORGE AND THE GUSTAV

Nearly 200 total residential units across two adjacent complexes

Green and sustainable features such as rainwater collection

EUROPEAN MEDICINES AGENCY

Soon-to-be new home to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) after Brexit-related relocation from London

Of�ce space and conference centre

The goal is a sustainability label that exceeds the BREEAM quality mark

A

A

D

B

C

D

TO AMSTERDAM AIRPORT

CB

A10 HIGHWAY

A10 HIGHWAY

Amsterdam Metro

CASE STUDYThe Zuidas financial district is evolving into a sustainable urban hub

The Zuidas business district,

Amsterdam’s main financial centre,

is undergoing major development

to cope with growing demand for

office and residential space, and to

ease pressure on public transport.

Zuidas is increasingly becoming

an urban hub and residential area,

with 300,000 sqm of office space,

400,000 sqm of facilities and 7,000

new homes expected over the next

few years.

Sustainability is playing a key role in

the district’s evolution. Amsterdam’s

energy and environmental agenda

calls for reducing per capita energy

use by 20% between 2013 and

2020. Therefore, many new office

and mixed-use buildings will be

BREEAM certified upon completion.

Zuidasdok, the district’s largest

infrastructure project, will begin in

2019. The project will make part of the

A10 highway subterranean to

allow for the expansion of the

Amsterdam Zuid train station.

The train station will benefit from a

public transport terminal, additional

tracks and greenery. The number

of travellers passing through the

station is expected to grow from

approximately 80,000 today to up to

300,000 by 2030.

2018

24 2524 25

AMSTERDAM #4




77SCORE

8381

7170

7774

SUSTAINABILITY IS PLAYING A KEY ROLE IN THE ZUIDAS BUSINESS DISTRICT'S EVOLUTION INTO AN URBAN HUB.

Infrastructure


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Future Population

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2018

26 2726 27

BERLIN #5




76SCORE

80

76

81

71

72 70


961

21

96a1

158

2

15996

100

100

113

96a

OBERSCHÖNEWEIDE

PRENZLAUER

CHARLOTTENBURG

FRIEDENAU

KREUZBERG

NEUKÖLLN

Alexanderplatz

Tiergarten

Tempelhofer Feld

Botanical Garden

Britzer Garten

Treptower Park

Landschaftspark Herzberge

Volkspark Friedrichshain

EUROPACITY

2

1

MEDIASPREE

ADLERSHOF

3

TO BERLIN TEGEL AIRPORT

BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT

BERLIN'S HIGH TECH AND SERVICE-SECTOR BOOM HAS LED TO DYNAMIC ECONOMIC GROWTH ASSOCIATED WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT.

CASE STUDYAdlershof, Mediaspree and Europacity

Berlin’s innovation and modern digital infrastructure are increasingly attracting talent, stakeholders and, in turn, investment for the city. For example, in 2017 Berlin-based companies accounted for the majority of investment in newly launched businesses in Germany, which overall jumped by 88% year on year, according to EY.

Berlin’s dynamic growth has had a positive impact on its real estate market. Areas such as 1 Adlershof, 2 Mediaspree and 3 Europacity

have benefitted from availability of developable land, increasing demand for offices and strong transport links.

Adlershof is known as ‘the city of science, technology and media.’ The area covers around 420 hectares and hosts six Humboldt University of Berlin departments. Ten non-university research institutes are also part of this innovation centre.

At the end of 2017, almost 1,100 companies were based in Adlershof, employing almost 18,000. The urban district is forecast to grow further, with insurer Allianz set to move into its newly built, Aldershof-based campus in 2019.

Development of Mediaspree initially began in the 1990s and now spans 180 hectares in total. Since the beginning of the 2000s, the area between Berlin Ostbahnhof (Berlin East) station and Warschauer Strasse has been built up. This location has attracted a number of well-known companies such as Zalando and Mercedes Benz.

According to CA Immo, Europacity spans some 40 hectares and is directly linked to Berlin Hauptbahnhof, the city’s central railway station. A number of office and residential properties have already been completed in this new urban district.

Infrastructure


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2018

28 2928 29

DUBLIN#6

10 mins

DOCKLANDS(WESTERN

COMMUTER BELT)

PEARSE STATION(SOUTH DUBLIN SUBURBS,

SOUTH EAST IRELAND)

BELFAST)

DUBLIN LANDINGS

WeWork will lease almost 10,000 sqm of of�ce space next to the new Central Bank of Ireland headquarters

Ongoing redevelopment of Dublin Landings to include 250+ luxury apartments, restaurants, green space and other amenities

1

4

2

TO DUBLINAIRPORT

GEORGE’S DOCK

MARLBOROUGH

O’CONNELLGPO

MAYOR SQUARE - NCI

Connolly

THE POINT

PEARSE

CONNOLLY

GRAND CANALDOCK STATION

ST STEPHEN’S GREEN

SPENCER DOCK

3Arena

Bolands Quay

IFSC

St Stephen’s Green

Capital Dock

TRINITYCOLLEGE

BORD GAIS

ENERGYTHEATRE

TARA STREETSTATION

DUBLINPORT FERRY TERMINAL 3

5

3

2

Dublin transport

DART/ Commuter Rail

LUAS Red Line

LUAS Green Line

CUSTOM HOUSE QUAY

Dublin City Council aims to construct a 250-metre white-water kayak course and a public lido at George’s Dock

The council’s Custom House Quay of�ces would be converted into facilities for the leisure developments




76SCORE77

92

67

7272 71

IRELAND'S POSITIVE GROWTH OUTLOOK, LOW TAX RATES AND FLEXIBLE LABOUR LAWS MAKE DUBLIN AN EASY TARGET FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT.

CASE STUDYThe Dublin Docklands

The Dublin Docklands area has

continued to transform into a

financial hub, starting with the 1 International Financial

Services Centre (IFSC). According

to the Dublin City Council, the city is

home to 9 of the top 10 technology

companies globally.

Less than a 30-minute walk from 2 St Stephen’s Green, the

Docklands is increasingly becoming

a place to live as well as work.

Soon, the 3 3Arena will have other

attractions in its midst, including

several mixed-use developments

bringing residents and rejuvenation

to the business district.

The area surrounding Grand Canal

Dock is at the heart of the Dublin

Docklands’ transformation into a

digital hub. Google recently acquired

the entirety of 4 Bolands Quay on

Grand Canal Docks, nicknamed

Silicon Docks, for approximately

EUR 300 million. The development

will comprise cultural and dining

space as well as offices and

apartments.

Neighbouring 5 Capital Dock is

being built up simultaneously. In

addition to three office buildings,

development plans include luxury

apartments with access to cinema

rooms and winter gardens; a public

park and square; retail units and

foot bridges across the river. Office

tenants will include J.P. Morgan,

which announced its move to

the Docklands after the Brexit

referendum.


Infrastructure


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Interconnection

Connectivity

Commuting


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Magnet & Pollution

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Rosenheimer Str.

Anzinger Str.

Asc

hhei

mer

Str

Fried

enstr

aße

Orlean

sstra

ße

Piusplatz

Kustermannpark

2R

MUNICH EAST

CONCERT HALL

Residential space

Working space

Living space

Green space

Werksviertel München


CASE STUDYWerksviertel München

Munich has been experiencing

strong economic and population

growth over recent years. Oxford

Economics expects this growth to

continue, resulting in further demand

for commercial and residential real

estate.

Due to a number of ongoing or

already completed conversions of

former industrial areas, brewery

locations, container terminals or

generally underused areas such

as Theresienhöhe, Arnulfpark,

Hirschgarten and Nockherberg, there

is limited brownfield land available

for redevelopment. Werksviertel

München, a 39.5-hectare

development area close to the city’s

second most important railway

station, München Ost (Munich East),

is one of the few brownfield sites left

for redevelopment.

About EUR 1.5 billion will be invested

in Werksviertel, according to local

media. Upon completion in 10-15

years, about 3,000 residents will call

Werksviertel home.

A number of notable office

developments, such as Highrise

One and Atlas along Rosenheimer

Strasse, are also part of the project

and should be delivered to the market

this year. The office developments

could attract more than 12,500

employees. The mixed-use district

will offer shopping as well as leisure,

sports and cultural facilities, including

cinemas and a new concert hall.

2018

30 3130 31

MUNICH#7




76SCORE

68

7475

68

7975

MUNICH’S ECONOMIC STRENGTH AND HIGH QUALITY OF LIVING MEAN BOTH ITS COMMERCIAL AND RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKETS HAVE EXPERIENCED EXCESS DEMAND FOR YEARS.

Infrastructure


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Future Population

Interconnection

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Commuting


Improvements

Magnet & Pollution

Local Connectivity

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NO.1 FOR INTERCONNECTION



M4

M3

M40

M20M25

M11

M25

Proposed East-West Rail (Phase 1)

Golden triangle

Brain belt

Railway

Key

Motorway

Proposed East-West Rail (Phase 2)

MILTON KEYNES

OXFORD

LONDON

CAMBRIDGE

CASE STUDYThe golden triangle, brain belt and East-West Rail

Oxford is known for its car

manufacturing industry, as well

as the renowned University of

Oxford. Drawing on both, the city

is increasingly becoming a leader

in innovation. For example, one of

the forefront autonomous driving

technology firms, Oxbotica, is based

in the city. Oxford represents the

western point of the golden triangle

of leading research universities in

the UK.

Oxford also sits at the western end

of the new ‘brain belt’, which links

Oxford to Cambridge and which the

UK government has highlighted as

‘one of the most significant growth

corridors in the country.’ Reflecting

this, in the autumn 2017 budget, the

chancellor announced that 1 million

new homes would be built along this

corridor, starting with a deal to build

100,000 in and around Oxford by

2031.

There are also plans for an East-

West Rail that will ultimately link

Oxford and Cambridge. The western

section – scheduled to complete

first, around 2024 – is planned to run

between Oxford and Milton Keynes.

The city is currently 50 minutes west

of London by train, and served by

two main stations, one in the city

centre plus a more recently opened

station to the north.

2018

32 3332 33

OXFORD SITS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE NEW 'BRAIN BELT' GROWTH CORRIDOR, AND REPRESENTS THE WESTERN POINT OF THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE OF LEADING UK RESEARCH UNIVERSITIES.OXFORD

#8








75SCORE

81

91

6364

78

65

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Local Connectivity

Inclusion

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Wealth

Population Growth

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WEIL AM RHEIN

RIEHEN

GRENZACH-WYHLEN

BIRSFELDEN

MUTTENZMÜNCHENSTEIN

REINACH

BOTTMINGENOBERWIL

BINNINGEN

ALLSCHWIL

HÉGENHEIM

SAINT-LOUIS

HÉSINGUEHUNINGUE

VILLAGE-NEUF LÖRRACH

Wiese

St. Johann

Gotthelf

Vorstädte

Matthäus

Klybeck

Hirzbrunnen

Kleinhüningen

Rosental

Wettstein

Breite

St. Alban

Gundeldingen

Bruderholz

Iselin

ClaraAltstadt Klein-basel

Altstadt Grossbasel

Bachletten

Am Ring

GATEWAY BASEL NORD

1

Transport corridors

North Sea – Mediterranean Corridor (railway)

Rhine-Alpine Corridor (road)

Rhine-Alpine Corridor (railway)

2018

34 3534 35

BASEL #9




75SCORE

79

86

65

70

7469

BASEL IS A LEADER IN THE CHEMICAL AND PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY, AND HAS ONE OF THE HIGHEST PATENT DENSITIES IN EUROPE.

Basel is well located in the tri-

border region of Switzerland,

France and Germany. The city

is the most important logistics

location in Switzerland, located

along the European freight

corridor.

A new tri-modal transhipment

terminal called 1 Gateway

Basel Nord will be developed at

the intersection of rail, road and

Rhine. This new logistics hub will

be constructed in three phases,

and more than EUR 200 million will

be invested through 2023. After

completion, the transhipment

capacity could reach 390,000

standard containers per year.

Innovation is a key driver of the

city’s success. Basel is a leader in

the chemical and pharmaceutical

industry, and has one of the

highest patent densities in Europe.

According to Initiative Life

Sciences Cluster Region Basel,

the city has the highest number

of pharmaceutical sector

patent applications per million

inhabitants globally, and employs

33,000 people in the life sciences

sector. More than 700 life sciences

companies have settled in the

region.

Basel also boasts a high standard

of living and purchasing power,

making it attractive to international

talent. Around 70,000 cross-

border commuters from France

and Germany travel to work in

the Basel region every day, and

40,000 expats live there.

Basel: strategically located in a tri-border region


Infrastructure


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2018

36 3736 37

STOCKHOLM #10

Demand for large data centres

in good locations has risen

significantly over the past five

years, Savills reports. Since data

is the most mobile commodity

on earth, companies can source

the ideal location for their data

centre, wherever that might be in

the world.

Sweden is an attractive location

for data centres due to its naturally

low temperatures, which allow

for natural cooling, as well as

its strong digital connectivity,

transport infrastructure, local

renewable energy resources and

low country and political risk. This

has led to information technology

giants such as Google, Facebook

and Apple, with headquarters

in Silicon Valley, to choose the

Nordics as a location to expand

their data centre facilities.

The Swedish capital is considered

one of Europe’s most important

tech communities. In Sweden,

there are currently 90 data centres,

the majority of which are located

in Stockholm. Furthermore,

Stockholm benefits from strong

accessibility and connectivity

due to its international airport,

port, rail, metro and motorway

networks. Savills has produced

a benchmark to identify the best

European locations for investment

in data centres. The Nordic

countries rank exceptionally well,

with Sweden ranked second after

Norway in the 2018 benchmark.

Stockholm data centre concentration and transport network

E18

E4

E18

E18

E20

E4

SOLLENTUNA

HUDDINGE

FLEMINGSBERG

ÄLTA

BOO

TYNNINGÖ

ÅKERSBERGA

VARMDON

VALLENTUNAROSERSBERG

HILLESHÖG

14

4

2

2

PORT OF STOCKHOLM

STOCKHOLM CENTRAL STATION

TO STOCKHOLM

AIRPORT

1

1

1

1

Sources: Data Center Map, Savills Investment ManagementNotes: numbers in blue circles represent number of data centres in the area; seven Stockholm data centres are not featured on this map.




74SCORE

65

72

68

7373

77

STOCKHOLM IS ONE OF EUROPE’S MOST IMPORTANT TECH COMMUNITIES.

Infrastructure


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Population Growth

Property Activity




About Savills Investment Management

Savills Investment Management is an international real estate investment manager with offices in Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Hong Kong, Jersey, London, Luxembourg, Madrid, Milan, Munich, Paris, Seattle, Shanghai, Singapore, Stockholm, Sydney, Tokyo and Warsaw.

As of 31 December 2017, Savills Investment Management managed total assets of around EUR 16.4 billion.

Savills Investment Management is the brand name for entities in the Savills Investment Management group, including Savills Investment Management LLP, Savills Investment Management (UK) Ltd, Savills Investment Management (Luxembourg) Sàrl, Savills Investment Management (Jersey) Limited, Savills Investment Management SGR SpA, Savills Fund Management GmbH, Savills Investment Management KVG GmbH, Savills Investment Management Pte Ltd, Savills Investment Management Asia Limited, Savills Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited, Savills Investment Management Inc and Savills Investment Management (Australia) PTY Limited. Savills Investment Management LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England No: OC306423 regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Savills Investment Management LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England No: OC306423 regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Important Notice

This document has been prepared by Savills Investment Management LLP, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under registration number 615368. Property is not a financial Instrument as defined by the Market in Financial Instrument Directive under European regulation; consequently, the direct investment into and the management of property is not regulated by the FCA. The registered office is at 33 Margaret Street, London W1G 0JD. This document may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any form, without the permission of Savills Investment Management. To the extent that it is passed on care must be taken to ensure that this is in a form that accurately reflects the information presented here.

Whilst Savills Investment Management believes that the information is correct at the date of this document, no warranty or representation is given to this effect and no responsibility can be accepted by the Manager to any intermediaries or end users for any action taken based on the information. As Savills Investment Management and its subsidiaries operate and manage funds which invest in property, this research is not represented as being impartial. Property can be difficult to sell and it may be difficult to realise investments when desired.

This is a marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and it is not subject to any promotion on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Certain statements included in this outlook are forward looking and are therefore subject to risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual markets to differ materially from those forecast or implied because they relate to future events. Consequently, the actual performance of any investments could differ materially from expectations based on our forward-looking statements. Accordingly, no assurance can be given that any particular expectation will be met and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements that speak only at their respective dates.

All rights reserved by Savills Investment Management LLP.

savillsim.com

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INCLUSION

INNOVATIONINFRASTRUCTURE

INTERCONNECTION

INVESTMENT

Documents

2018 - Dynamic Cities · Dynamic Cities considers energy, sanitation, buildings, transport as well as information infrastructure, which is gaining in importance. The index examines