David Revell, PhDAnd others…

CSBPA Coastal Conditions 2018Bodega Bay, CA

Beach front homeowners ask what will my house be worth in 30 years?Beach communities ask what will my beach look like in 30 years?Politicians ask how can I make everyone happy?

What if…?

How much does it cost?

Do Nothing Accommodate

Protect Inland Relocation

Hybrid

� Public vs Private perspectives� Typically sector focus � Green versus gray� Modeling of human management decisions� Often lack of economics to inform long term decisions� Needs evaluation of Maladaptation

� Construction Costs� Escalating Maintenance Costs� Ecology� Recreation� Views� Aesthetics

Seawalls destroy beaches and views

� Developed/ Yard – Private – structure / land value� Beach – Public - towel space, sand castles, tourists, locals� Intertidal – Public – surf fishing, beach walking� Subtidal – Public - Surfing, diving, kiteboarding,

� $ - willingness to pay, businesses, taxes, avoided costs� Natural defenses/ ecology – birds, marine mammals, water

filtration, erosion protection, aesthetics, human health

� House = $3 million, armoring is $500K� Beach recreation= $? � Ecology= $? � Human Heath= $?� $ = too hard, don’t know = $0� So existing coastal management results� $3million> $500,000 + $0+ $0 +$0 = save the houseCCC Staff - Identify shortcomings, Recommend conditions, CCC approves

� Beach Width vs Upland – Physical modeling (assumes erosion caused by accelerated erosion rates, not direct storm impacts)

� Physical and Economics over multiple horizons

� Recreation yes but not habitat valuation

� Narrow versus wide beach

For each Adaptation Strategy:• Armor• Relocate• Groins• Nourishment• Dune / Cobble Restoration

• Upland protected• Dry sand beaches disappear 2050 - 2075• Only damp sand beaches by 2035 - 2065

• Upland 2-3 houses gone• Beaches remain

Revell Coastal et al 2016

� Evaluated Armoring, Dune Restoration, Accommodation and Managed Retreat

� Beach Width vs Upland – Physical modeling (assumes erosion caused by accelerated erosion rates, and annualized 100 year storm impacts)

� Recreation but not habitat valuation

Rincon, Phil King, Everest, and Revell Coastal et al 2017

Site Yearly Attendance Source %

surfers Value of SurfingTotal Recreational

Value

Rincon La ConchitaMussel ShoalsHobsonRincon Parkway NorthFaria CountyRincon Parkway SouthMandosEmma WoodC StreetSan BuenaventuraOxnard ShoresSilver StrandPort HuenemePoint Mugu

Total

350,000.00 BEACON 75%40,000.00 BEACON 25%10,000.00 BEACON 90%90,000.00 Interviews 76%

100,000.00 BEACON 30%100,000.00 Interviews 46%30,000.00 BEACON 55%

210,000.00 BEACON 80%240,000.00 CA State Parks 43%400,000.00 BEACON 97%500,000.00 CA State Parks 4%50,000.00 BEACON 15%

410,000.00 BEACON 33%50,000.00 BEACON 25%

470,000.00 CA State Parks 20%

3,050,000.00

17,062,500$ 20,562,500$ 650,000$ 1,850,000$ 585,000$ 625,000$

4,446,000$ 5,310,000$ 1,937,000$ 4,745,000$ 3,003,000$ 5,155,000$ 1,072,500$ 1,612,500$

10,920,000$ 12,600,000$ 6,676,800$ 12,168,000$

25,116,000$ 25,660,000$ 1,300,000$ 20,500,000$

487,500$ 2,187,500$ 8,794,500$ 19,782,500$

812,500$ 2,312,500$ 6,110,000$ 21,150,000$

88,973,300.00 156,220,500.00

Revell Coastal in review

� Most cases, managed retreat wins typically between the mid to late century (+ 50 years) in the long term� Narrower beaches or higher erosion faster� Exception was Oxnard Shores (highest urban density)

� Habitat valuation still difficult CCC input would help� Various implementation mechanisms need evaluation� Beneficial in community adaptation discussions

� Think about a more holistic evaluation of our coastal resources and community identity

� Need data – Citizen scientists, graduate students� How many people, when, what are they doing?� How much do they spend?

� Changes to the coastal system over time

� All Adaptation is local, but solutions need regional and technical perspectives� Coordination� Lack of authority

� Language and Communication issues� Managed retreat� Hybrid structural solutions

� How to monetize non market benefits?� Funding resources

� Limited dollars for adaptation planning