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Nouveaux Fondements de la Theorie de la Statistique.by Casimir Maciejewski

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Page 1: Nouveaux Fondements de la Theorie de la Statistique.by Casimir Maciejewski

Nouveaux Fondements de la Theorie de la Statistique. by Casimir MaciejewskiReview by: M. G.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. 75, No. 7 (Jun., 1912), pp. 757-759Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical SocietyStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2339824 .

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Page 2: Nouveaux Fondements de la Theorie de la Statistique.by Casimir Maciejewski

1912.] Reviews of Statistical and Economic Books. 757

population. This increased supply, however, was far behind the increased consumption per head of the population, which had grown bv I94-4 per cent., and the deficiency had to be made good from foreign sources.

(3) The cost of production has risen considerably-for example, the wages of male agricultural labourers in Bavaria doubled between 1853 and 1906, and the price of hay rose by 64-5 per cent. between 1846-50 and 1906-09. On the other hand, transport costs have fallen.

(4) Import duties and sanitary restrictions on importation are, in the author's opinion, the main causes of the dearness of meat in Germany relatively to London, which has maintained the advantage of the cheap American supplies. (5) Owing to the growth of the towns, butchers are no longer able to buy their supplies directly from the farmers, and a class of middlemen has evolved requiring a new profit. (6) Butchers' costs have increased, owing to the increase in the standard of life, to the greater cost of living, to the increase of local rates, to higher wages, and to heavier rents. Assistants "live in," but the money wages of the chief assistant have risen from 7 2O marks weekly in 1871 to Io050 marks from 1897 onwards, or 45 8 per cent. Shop-rents had quadrupled in 1900 compared with 1871-80, but, on the other hand, the shops were better. The expenses of the central abattoir and of cold storage are also higher, compared with the charges when the butcher killed at his own shop.

It is regrettable that not more studies of this kind are published in England. It is true that complete records such as those of Munich are generally wanting, but it is little to the credit of our economic schools that the output of original statistical research is so scanty.

The first issue of the Canadian report on wholesale prices was reviewed in the number of this Jouqnal for December, 1910, and therefore it is only necessary to say here that the general index number of the price of 26I commodities was 124 in 1910 and I27-3 in 1911 (1890-99 being taken as Ioo). After remaining fairly steady for the first six monlths of the year, there was a sharp rise to I29-4 in December, 1911.

Mr. Hicks points out that the higher range of monopoly prices is controlled by the competition of substitutes, and that the lower level of competitive prices is limited by unity of action among producers. He urges that in a national trust policy the proper balancing of competition and unity of action must be secured, but makes no suggestion as to how this is to be achieved. Consequently, he is not very helpful. H.W. M.

3.-Noaveaux fondements de la thUorie de la statistique. Par le Dr. Casimir Maciejewski. 125 pp., 8vo. Paris: Giard and Bri6re, 1911. Price 3 francs,

Dr. Maciejewski being impressed by the importance of statistical methods in medicine, and having also noticed the contradictory results often reached by medical writers, has endeavoured in the work before us, to render "la statistique propre A etre enseignde dans les ecoles de m6decine."

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Page 3: Nouveaux Fondements de la Theorie de la Statistique.by Casimir Maciejewski

758 Reviews of Statistical ancd Econonic Books. [JUiie,

After an introductory chapter, in which an obsolete definition of statistics quoted from the first volume of the Joarqnal is suggested as indicating certain current tendencies, the author passes to the dis- cussion of obstetrical data by means of which nearly all his arguments are illustrated. This class of material is not well adapted for the instruction of non-medical readers since the technicalities (although explained by the author) may be found difficult to grasp.

Practically, we may sum up the auithor's results as follows. If we consider a phenomenon which (1) is objectively recognisable with ease, and (2) does not unfavouirably react upon the mechanism of delivery-e.g., the frequency of births in which the fcetal head is presented in the first or second position-then the proportion of such cases will be found to vary but little from one set of statistics to another. On the other hand, if the phenomenon under con- sideration is (1) difficult to recognise or subject to a large observa- tional error, (2) of importance to the line of treatment adopted by the accoucheur-e.g., the presence or absence of a contracted pelvis in the parturient-the proportional frequencies differ extremely in different sets of statistics.

These results are due to differences in the method of measure- ment and in the class of material examined. For instance, the proportion of abnormal cases of labour will not be the same in a series of births attended by private practitioners as in the records of an obstetrical clinic. The author argues that if the phenomenon, the prevalence of which it is desired to ascertain, be determined as objectively as possible, axnd if care be taken to render the data compared as homogeneous as possible in other respects, the latter condition involving, inter alia, avoidance of an excess of instrumental cases in one of the groups-the irregularities in the percentage results tend to disappear. Dr. Maciejewski believes, indeed, that the stability of statistical ratios is as marked in the obstetrical as in certain other fields, provided necessary precautions are adopted.

The author next, after briefly reviewing the opinions of Siissmilch and Qu4telet touching the constancy of statistical ratios, propounds an explanation of his own to which we can only apply the comment of Gilbert White upon another subject-that it is " very dark and mysterious." Dr. Maciejewski next considers the conditions under which the averages of different groups are com- parable. This section of his book is in effect a dissertation upon the importance of homogeneous comparisons, with hints as to how originally heterogeneous groups may by subdivision or reclassifi- cation be rendered comparable. In the tenth chapter the method of concomitant variations is examined, but the author being apparently unacquainted with the calculus of correlations, his treatment is too superficial to be of much use to the reader. The following chapter contains an extremely short discussion of the nature and use of averages and coefficients, while much of the remainder of the book is devoted to a vigorous, if ill-informed, criticism of the theory of probability as applied to statistics. The character of Dr. Maciejewski's criticisms will be sufficiently indicated by the following passage (p. 98):- " Il s'ensuit de ce qui a At4 dit que l'opinion sur la tres grande importance pour la statistique de Ia

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Page 4: Nouveaux Fondements de la Theorie de la Statistique.by Casimir Maciejewski

1912.] R-eviews of Statistical and Economic Books. 759

loi des grands nombres des mathdmaticiens est tout a fait erronee; au contraire, l'introduction de cette loi dans la statistique a jou6 le r6le de frein dans le d6veloppement de cette science; quant a l'importance de cette loi pour I'assurance, elle a ete injustement transport6e de la loi des grands nombres des statisticiens et, par coiisequent, elle doit Atre rendue a qui de droit." One is tempted to say of the book that what is true in it is not new, and what is new not true. At the same time, the author's remarks on the importance of homogeneous comparisons, if not new, are neverthe- less by no means without value, and many medical writers would derive profit from a perusal of the treatise, which is, on the whole, written with the clearness one is accustomed to expect in French books. We must, however, add that when Dr. Maciejewski has made himself better acquainted than he seems to be at present with the actual state of mathematical statistics, he may form a somewhat lower opinion of his personal originality, and will be in a better position to establish new foundations for the theory of statistics.

M.G.

4. - England's industrial development: a historical survey of commerce and industry. By Arthur D. Innes. xvi + 374 pp., 8vo. London: Rivingtons, 1912. Price 5s. net.

The presentation of the economic history of England in a text- book of moderate compass is a task of considerable difficultv, and it is, we think, generally admitted that it has not yet been essayed with complete success, in spite of the efforts made, for example, in various ways and on differing scales by Messrs. Cuiiningham and MacArthur, Gibbins, Price, Cheyney, Warner, and Meredith. To these writers is now to be added Mr. Innes, who differs from his predecessors in that he apparently approaches his subject primarily as a political historian, who has convinced himself that " the economic aspects of history are apt to be neglected or dealt with in a some- what perfunctory fashion in the treatises of general historians.. .. or else to be treated by specialists in a manner so technical that the reader who is not a professed student of economics finds himself repelled," and that by the ordinary reader the subject " is commonly regarded as a dreary one."

We are not here concerned with the defence of the "general historians," but there is, we believe, strong reason to doubt the validity of this criticism, so far as it applies to recent English economic historians; and in view of the growing interest shown in the study of economics, both historical and theoretical, by various social classes in this country, the repetition of the old phrases about dreariness has little point. Even admitting, however, that the remarks quoted contain some measure of truth, we have reluctantly to confess our doubt whether Mr. Innes is likelv to succeed where, in his view, his predecessors have failed. Mr. Innes has read extensively (though the list of writers to whom he is especially indebted, contained in the preface, is brief, and not very impressive; we may note, in passing, that whilst Toynbee is included, M. Mantoux's valuable work on the Industrial Revolution is omitted); he strives, with some success,

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