PMP Canada. Winter/Hiver 2014. 5(2)

Note from the Editor / Mot de l’editeur

L’edition Hiver 2014 de l’infolettre de PMP Canadaest caracterisee par sa grande variete de contributions.A la suite des evenements tragiques survenus auParlement canadien cet automne, Paul Baines etNicholas O’Shaughnessy presentent un resume deleur article sur le marketing d’Al-Qaıda. Ces derniersetudient d’un angle marketing politique la manieredont des ideologues islamistes utilisent des techniquesde propagande afin de promouvoir leur groupeterroriste. Ils se questionnent aussi sur la vitalitede la marque de commerce d’Al-Qaıda, au momentmeme ou l’Etat islamique s’active a promouvoirune version plus radicale de l’ideologie islamique.Alexandre Blanchet, quant a lui, s’attarde au conceptde sophistication politique en tant que “l’un deselements centraux structurant la relation entre l’offreet la demande politique”. La literature en marketingpolitique n’accorde en effet pas assez d’importancea l’effet des niveaux variables de sophisticationpolitique dans la population. Blanchet se penche surl’origine de cette sophistication politique et remeten question l’effet de l’education; la sophisticationpolitique decoulerait plutot des habilites linguistiqueset verbales de l’enfant et du statut socio-economiquede ses parents. Shannon Sampert suit ensuite avecun resume de son article “Jumping the Shark” danslequel elle demontre l’utilite de l’application duconcept de mediatisation au contexte partisan cana-dien. Avec ses collegues, elle a analyse la couverturemediatique des 13 courses au leadership de partispolitiques canadiens au cours des 37 dernieres annees.Leurs resultats demontrent un changement importantdans la couverture de ces courses au leadershipdepuis l’an 2000. Par la suite, David Houle s’attardea expliquer le calcul marketing des partis politiquesau pouvoir lors de l’elaboration de politiquesenvironnementales sur les changements climatiques.Finalement, Jennifer Lees-Marshment decrit la cam-pagne marketing des differents partis neo-zelandaislors des elections de septembre dernier qui menaa la reelection du Parti National de Nouvelle-Zelande.

Yannick Dufresne

This Winter 2014 edition of the PMP Canadanewsletter is characterized by the diversity of itscontributions. In light of the recent attacks onCanadian Parliament, Paul Baines and NicholasO’Shaughnessy present a precis of their recent articleon the marketing of Al Qaeda. Their refreshing takeon the analytic political marketing approach showshow propaganda techniques are used by Islamistideologues to advance Al Qaeda. The contributionconcludes with a question about the vitality of the AlQaeda brand and reflects upon whether the IslamicState successfully promotes a “hard-core version ofIslamist ideology.” Alexandre Blanchet’s contribu-tion focuses on political sophistication as “one ofthe central elements structuring the relationshipbetween political supply and demand”. The politicalmarketing literature tends to underestimate theimpact of variable political sophistication levels inthe population. Blanchet investigates the origins ofpolitical sophistication and challenges the impactof education, arguing instead for a greater focuson more fundamental processes, such as childhoodlinguistic development and parental socio-economicstatus. Thereafter, Shannon Sampert summarizesher article about the “jumping the shark” momentin Canadian party politics. She and her colleaguesuse the mediatization concept to thoroughly study13 Canadian party leadership contests over a 37-yeartime period. Their findings show a shift in thenews coverage of leadership contests that is in linewith the theory on mediatization of politics. DavidHoule’s contribution focuses on the marketing ofenvironmental policies. After demonstrating theimportance of the environmental issue in recentelections, Houle explains how political partiesnavigate the partisan market to introduce newlegislation that combats climate change. Finally,Jennifer Lees-Marshment describes the politicalmarketing campaign of the competing parties in theSeptember 2014 New Zealand election that led tothe re-election of the National Party. Enjoy.

PMP Canada. Winter 2014. page 1 of 19

An aberration ofpolitical marketing:An analysis ofAl-Qaeda positioningfrom 1999-2008Paul BainesCranfield University, United Kingdom

Nicholas O’ShaughnessyQueen Mary University of London, United Kingdom

The short article below is a combinationof a precis of a recent published articleon Al-Qaeda propaganda as follows and

some thoughts on IS propaganda, including itsmanifestations and implications: Baines, P. andO’Shaughnessy, N.J. (2014), “An aberration of polit-ical marketing: An analysis of Al Qaeda positioningfrom 1999-2008”, Public Relations Inquiry, 3, 2, 163-191.

We contribute this short introduction to our abovearticle to the PMP-Canada Newsletter given the re-cent tragic events at the Canadian parliament in Ot-tawa when Michael Zehaf-Bibeau, a Muslim convert,shot a Canadian soldier dead before himself being fa-tally wounded. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police(RCMP) have identified that Zehaf-Bibeau killed forideological reasons, after the Canadian governmentconfiscated his passport so he could not travel toSyria as a foreign fighter (Leger, 2014). Whilst our

article precis charts an anatomy of Al Qaeda (AQ)propaganda between 1998 and 2008, we attach a briefdiscussion on how Islamic State’s (IS) propagandadiffers markedly from that of AQ, particularly inits raw snuff-filmesque brutality, and how the polit-ical marketing research agenda might be reformedto investigate the negative societal consequences ofsuch marketing of terrorist groups and how it can becountered.

The Precis of the Article

Al Qaeda was the first global terrorist organizationin history; its acts have been characterised by: first,the extremism of the terror act itself, second, theglobal reach of such acts, and third, the ability toelucidate the message of those acts verbally and vi-sually on a global scale, particularly through the

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internet. Al Qaeda message appeals focus on shar-ing a fantasy, that of the global conspiracy againstIslam (and the global nature of the internet allowsglobal dissemination of this idea), the iniquity of itsenemies, and the notion that they are fighting tosave their faith from extinction. The terror act, andthe cyberspace amplification of that deed (evidencedby the presence of online propaganda), is entirelyself-referential. Al Qaeda solicit multiple targets us-ing a range of objectives. Undoubtedly, recruitmentis an aim; AQ propaganda seeks to legitimize theexcitement and danger of combat as a way of luringbored and unemployed youth: but they also need asource of legitimacy from culturally significant fig-ures. Despite security service successes in a numberof countries, Al Qaeda remains fully focused on itsmurderous mission. An analysis of AQ messagingby IntelCenter revealed a significant increase in theannual production of AQ’s propaganda tapes by as-Sahab, its main media production company, fromcirca 6 in 2002 to 58 in 2006. By the end of 2007,they had produced at least 87 (IntelCenter, 2007).The three key figures appearing in as-Sahab propa-ganda videos between 2002-2007 were Osama binLaden, Ayman Al Zawahiri and Yahya Al Libi. Oneparticularly noteworthy assessment in the evolutionof as-Sahab propaganda was AQ’s ability to respondto unpredictable events with audio-visual statementssometimes released within 5-7 days of significantevents (usually bombings for which they claimedresponsibility). No sole corpus of theoretic ideas sat-isfactorily elucidates the complex phenomenon of AlQaeda messaging; only through inter-disciplinarity(e.g. marketing theory, political science, psychologyand public health) and methodological pluralism canthe zeitgeist of this movement, and other Islamistmovements, be accessed and checked.

AQ governance shows recognition that ideas haveto be actively sold, so AQ conscripts theatrical de-vices to present the same messages in different ways.The dramaturgy of AQ messaging explains its sur-prisingly persuasive power. The suicide bomber nar-rative, of pious Islamic warrior, melds theatre andritual. The ritual is well-established in AQ’s mes-saging: the bomber’s articulation of his motivations,farewell to friends and family, avowal of the certaintyof paradise, the preparation of the vehicle and bombconstruction, the hiding of the vehicle, the approachof the enemy convoy, the explosion. This intermixingof life and death and the emanicipation of death asan ideal for the idealistic Muslim is truly an exercisein social creativity. Unfortunately, sufficient numbersof Western citizens appear to believe the myths.

Dramatic persuasion

AQ is capable of building a histrionic drama, for ex-ample, the ‘representation’ of Mohammed Al Durra’sfather via a voice-over (the boy had been shot byIsraeli security forces). There is a sequence of wail-ing and screaming hyperbole, using a ‘vox populi’method where ordinary Palestinians in the streetexpress their rage. AQ tapes also add other voices,notes of calm authority – the rational centre of anirrational world - before moving on to the incendi-ary images of death; and the brand identificationsymbols such as flaming arrows; vistas of the eter-nal such as sunlit landscapes: and the liberal use ofcomputer generated graphics. AQ is capable of arange of media tricks, acting flexibly depending onthe communication problem.

Inviting fantasies

Much of the AQ product invites viewers to partici-pate in a fantasy. The literature certainly stressesthe significance of fantasy in human behaviour; forexample Velleman (2000) cites various categories ofbehaviour that feature motivation by imagining. Tar-gets are being offered, vistas of a truly diabolic enemyfought by truly saintly warriors in the simple binaryof good and evil. Target audiences do not have tobelieve all the particulars of this vision of enmity, oreven its principal allegations. What AQ seek is anemotional trigger, an imagistic and rhetorical ratio-nale whose truth or falsehood is not the main point:it does not (necessarily) make the mistake of askingfor belief. Le Bon said of the masses that “theyturn instinctively, as the insects seek the light, to therhetoricians who tell them what they want... who-ever can supply them with delusions is easily theirmaster; whoever attempts to destroy their illusionsis always evicted” (Le Bon, 1908). Fantasies are notbeliefs: They are known to be false but believed tobe true. Fantasy has been conceived as an inter-nal dialogue that serves some wish-fulfilling function(Poster, 1988). The cyberspace nature of much of theengagement with AQ audio-visual material serves toenhance the opportunities for followers to celebratetheir fantasies, individually and in online fora, for itto reach a wider audience.

The pious persona

One aspect of superiority, as political Islam’s defacto praetorian guard, is a depth of piety mani-fest in the rejection of all worldly blandishmentsand siren voices. There is a significant focus on

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the life of austerity led by the martyrs and the Mu-jahideen fighters who reject a life of comfort to fightfor their cause. They are positioned as supremelymoral men. But AQ also aligns the cause of Islamwith anti-materialism, since the western adversaryrepresents materialism and all that is evil with such.What is constant throughout these rhetorical essaysis the notion of a binary universe for the Al Qaedaworld - luxury/austerity: good/evil: city/country:human/animal: Muslim/infidel: paradise/hell. Suchan essentially Manichean perspective is attractiveto some because it ‘sorts’ a complex world, but itmay also be facilitated by the hard-wiring of thebrain itself. The neurologist Damasio, has suggestedthat the brain has mechanisms that classify things asgood or bad, and that those things contiguously asso-ciated are also thus classified. Other disciplines havemade similar suggestions, the social anthropologistLeymore for example, in line with the structuralismof Levi-Strauss, suggests that the mind is particu-larly sensitive to contrasts in the human condition(Leymore, 1975).

AQ are the self-elected and self-appointed defend-ers of Islam, justified by showing themselves to bethe most pure illustrated through martyrdom, withtheir message amplified in cyberspace. Their video-graphic material, available online, presents an idealself, a model to be emulated, but also a challengesince self-detonation is cast as the ultimate test ofmanhood. Martyrs are not presented as strange men,and the fact of their ostensible normalcy is importantto AQ, as is their attractiveness of personality andappearance. Bin Laden fortified these ideas by con-stantly seeking to give the impression of a scholarlyclergyman, in some of these videos.

Legitimacy of a supra-national movement

AQ seek to demonstrate that their own approachof exacting death in the name of their religion’shonour is validated by Islam, that it is the exclusive,interpretation of the Qur’an. Hence AQ misuses thelanguage of religion, in a necessarily imprecise way.The mandates of any global religion must have aninherent vagueness because of the millions of differentsituations in which a particular individual might findthemselves. No religion crafts a formula for eachconceivable situation. AQ place these general, andgenerally poetically expressed precepts, alongsidethe militant text of their own authorship to createan associative emotional connection where none canconceivably be regarded to exist in logic.

It is also significant that AQ re-conceptualises Is-

lam as a nation with its own territoriality. This isan illicit conceptual move: it takes an idea from onerealm, politics, and applies it to another, spirituality.If peoples within geographic areas can self-constituteas sovereign nations, so then can a religion. This in-cludes indeed any former Islamic territory like Spain(Al Andalus). The rhetorical ascription to Islamof the idea of nationhood offers the derivative of apolemic of nationalism, with specific reference to theUmma (the world body of Islamic adherents).

Key Messages

AQ’s propaganda focuses particularly on a messageaimed at consolidating a religious anti-Western world-view, espousing a global conspiracy against Islam –a myth its video-messages seek to perpetuate anddeepen. The only antidote is to perform Jihad, self-defined as either the conduct of a martyrdom op-eration, the provision of financial or sympatheticsupport, or at the very least passive non-engagementwith AQ (as opposed to actively working againstthem). Its approach is increasingly sophisticatedboth in terms of production values and in terms ofits symbolic and rhetorical argumentation and itsmaterial is widely available for consumption acrossthe internet, both for individuals and for groups infora. A message of hope, and an illumination of thathope, must form a critical part of counter-messagingstrategy. AQ’s material seeks to exploit and capturea mood, not necessarily a dominant one, but one towhich some in the Middle East have been peripateticrecruits, not perhaps permanently or even deeply,but fitfully. It is this mood of angry despair- manifestalso in secular ways as in the revolutions of the 2011Arab Spring - that AQ attempt to direct. It is acondition characterized by ‘a loss of informationalanchors and competence, of life becoming unman-ageable’ (O’Shaughnessy & O’Shaughnessy, 2003).Cantril’s early (1941) study of deviant social move-ments like the Nazi party shows how national moodsdevelop. What is clear overall is that despite BinLaden’s death, the West continues to face a sophis-ticated ideological battle against AQ propagandists,a battle it will not win without comprehending thereligious nature of the context and without fightingharder to rebut AQ ideology – an ideology essentiallyconstructed around a perverse and perverted view ofIslam. There is an urgent need to provide an alterna-tive metaphysical sanctuary for disaffected Muslims(in Pakistan, Europe and the US), enlisting the helpof our Muslim communities committed to democracy

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and with national and global loyalties to humanity.

The need lies with research as well as persuasion;a psychology of radicalization must be predicatedon a psychology of propaganda as the modern erahas reinvented it. Therefore the analysis and studyof the techniques, effects and cumulative impacts ofpolemic and visual hyperbole in their cyberspace re-incarnations must be given a public research prioritycommensurate with its public significance.

Fast Forward to 2014: How is ISDifferent?

Moving forward to 2014, there is clearly an importantdistinction between the propaganda conducted byIS and that of Al Qaeda. Some have suggested thatthe Al Qaeda brand is now dead (Keck, 2014), as aresult of the turf war between AQ and Islamic State(Hubbard, 2014), a more vicious Islamist variant, inwhich the leader of Al Qaeda central recommendedthat the leader of IS (formerly ISIL, ISIS), Abu BakrAl Baghdadi move out of Syria to allow AQ’s affili-ate there, Nusra Front, room for manoeuvre. Thiswas a request that Al Baghdadi flatly turned down.IS have even assassinated a number of AQ figuressent as intermediaries to broker a joint agreement(Ackerman, 2014). IS has also released a numberof propaganda videos in which they have shown thekilling by beheading of 5 US and British citizensand a number of Syrian government troops. Thissnuff-filmesque approach is designed to shock a coregroup of Islamist fanatics, particularly in the Westto support a more hard-core version of Islamist ide-ology. Given the number of Western foreign fightersin Syria (many of which come from the US, Britain,France, Canada and so on), this propaganda strategymay actually be working. Their reality horror filmrecruitment video may actually tie into its watchers’deep desire for excitement and the need to be partof something powerful and identify meaning in theirlives (see Baines et al, 2010).

Quo Vadis, the Research Agendafor the Political Marketing ofTerrorist Groups

The concern of Western counter-terrorism agenciesand others studying propaganda/terrorism studies,including those in Canada, is to ascertain how attrac-tive this new variant of Islamist ideology actually isto their citizens, including Muslim converts, and to

what extent it might inspire acts of terrorism. If itdoes inspire violence, how might these acts actuallymanifest themselves? Will they be the large spectac-ular events of AQ in New York, Madrid and Londonor Al Shabab in Nairobi, or will they instead inspiremore random, lone-wolf style attacks such as thoseaimed at drummer Lee Rigby in London and NathanCirillo in Ottawa? We encourage political marketingresearchers to begin to research these themes andto recognize that Islamist ideologues have hijackedmarketing techniques to promote their own warpedpolitical visions. The battle of ideas between West-ern ideals and those of a minority of Islamist fanaticsis taking place in a political marketspace and thesooner we research this important area, the more wecan understand this phenomenon and why it’s takingplace. This, in our view, is a necessary antecedentin dealing with the problem of this dangerous newvariant of Islamist terrorist ideology.

Paul’s research has particularly fo-cused on political marketing, public opinion and propa-ganda. He seeks to help develop a Theory of MessageReception.

The main thrust of NicholasO’Shaughnessy’s recent work has been to evolve amore theoretically rigorous foundation for the fieldof political marketing (having charted its originalparameters). He seeks to contribute to the evolutionof a significantly under-subscribed field of researchand to rejuvenate the word ’propaganda’ in academicdiscourse.

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Les origines de lasophisticationpolitique. Commentdevient-on uncitoyen averti?Alexandre BlanchetCandidat au doctorat, Universite de Montreal

Le marketing politique s’interesse aux strategiesde communication utilisees par les leaders etpartis politiques pour convaincre efficacement

les citoyens d’appuyer leurs propositions et idees poli-tiques. D’un point de vue purement consumeriste,le marketing politique etudie donc les strategies decommunication de l’offre politique en relation a uneeventuelle demande emanant du public. Bien en-tendu, meme dans le marche des biens et servicestraditionnels, l’offre et la demande ne sont jamaiscompletement etanches l’une a l’autre et sont con-stamment en interrelation. Ceci etant, plusieurselements font en sorte que la demande dans le marchedes idees politiques a des caracteristiques partic-ulieres. D’une part, meme si les decisions politiquesont incontestablement des impacts importants sur lavie de tous les citoyens, ces impacts sont la plupartdu temps tres diffus et difficiles a evaluer pour lecitoyen ordinaire. Il est par exemple beaucoup pluscomplexe d’evaluer les couts et les benefices de voter

pour tel parti plutot que tel autre que de faire dememe pour l’achat de telle voiture plutot qu’uneautre. Les impacts positifs ou negatifs d’une decisionpolitique sont egalement normalement ressentis beau-coup plus tard et les liens entre la decision initialeet les consequences sont rarement evidents.

Contrairement aux situations de consommationtraditionnelles lors desquelles un prix est apposea un produit dont on peut raisonnablement atten-dre un benefice relativement clair, les �transac-tions� politiques demeurent donc toujours large-ment incertaines. Par ailleurs, l’univers politiqueest eminemment complexe et sa comprehension exigebeaucoup d’investissements en temps et ressources.Un citoyen desirant prendre des decisions politiqueseclairees doit prendre le temps de lire les journaux,regarder les nouvelles televisees, lire des livres ouacquerir de l’information sur des enjeux l’interessantplus particulierement. Etre un citoyen averti re-quiert donc de fournir un effort cognitif relativement

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soutenu et regulier alors qu’il est largement incer-tain que cet effort apportera reellement des beneficesclairs pour le citoyen. Cela est d’autant plus vraique contrairement a l’achat d’un bien particulier, lavoix d’un seul individu n’a que bien peu de poidsdans la decision finale d’une collectivite comprenantdes millions d’individus.

L’ampleur de l’incertitude entourant les couts etles benefices des decisions politiques, combine au faitque la comprehension reelle de l’univers politique soitsi exigeante fait en sorte que bien peu de citoyensont reellement un interet a bien s’informer politique-ment. Alors qu’un consommateur desirant s’acheterune voiture a des incitatifs clairs a bien s’informerquant aux options lui etant offertes afin de faire lemeilleur choix possible, ces incitatifs sont beaucoupmoins clairs en ce qui a trait aux decisions politiques.Cela explique d’ailleurs largement pourquoi l’un desrares consensus en science politique concerne le faitque la tres vaste majorite des citoyens dans toutesles democraties occidentales sont tres peu informespolitiquement, qu’ils developpement des attitudespolitiques souvent instables et incoherentes et qu’ilssont pour la plupart tres peu interesses a la politique.En termes plus techniques, nous dirons que la tresvaste majorite des citoyens sont tres peu sophistiquespolitiquement.

Le faible niveau de sophistication politique du pub-lic a egalement bel et bien des impacts reels sur nosdemocraties. La science politique a par exempledemontre que les individus moins informes voteraientdifferemment s’ils etaient plus informes et plusieursetudes menees dans plusieurs pays, dont le Canada,montrent que le resultat des elections aurait parfoisete different si les individus moins informes l’avaientete davantage. Au-dela des resultats electoraux, ila aussi ete demontre que les individus moins in-formes auraient des opinions politiques differentess’ils etaient plus informes. Non seulement leurs opin-ions seraient-elles differentes, elles seraient aussi plusnuancees et moins polarisees.

La sophistication politique du public revet ainsi uninteret pour la democratie en general, mais aussi pourle marketing politique puisqu’elle demeure l’un deselements centraux structurant la relation entre l’offreet la demande politique. Si nous pouvons aisementnous accorder sur l’idee qu’un public plus informe etsophistique politiquement soit une bonne chose, laquestion qui suit naturellement est de savoir commentse developpe la sophistication politique des individus.Mais avant de discuter de son developpement, jevoudrais definir clairement ce qu’est la sophisticationpolitique.

Qu’est-ce que la sophisticationpolitique?

En psychologie, des idees, des opinions ou des penseessont designees par le terme de technique de �cog-nition� et les idees, attitudes et opinions politiquesd’un individu sont donc des formes de cognitions.Suivant cela, la sophistication politique se fonde surtrois elements cles : la quantite de cognitions quetient un individu a propos de l’univers politique;l’etendue de l’univers politique couvert par ces cogni-tions; et finalement la coherence entre les differentescognitions d’un individu. La quantite refere doncsimplement au nombre d’idees ou d’opinions poli-tiques d’un individu. L’etendue designe quant aelle l’eventail des enjeux politiques couverts par lesopinions d’un individu. Finalement, la coherencerefere a l’interconnexion entre toutes les opinionsd’un individu. Les opinions d’un individu coherentseront toutes liees entre elles en un systeme coherentd’opinions alors qu’un individu incoherent aura desopinions largement independantes et destructurees.

Un individu peut donc avoir une faible ou unegrande quantite d’opinions politiques. Ces opinionspeuvent etre faiblement etendues — couvrir tres peude sujets — ou largement etendues — couvrir beau-coup de sujets. Les opinions peuvent finalement etrebien interalliees entre elles — former un systemecoherent — ou non. Bien sur, la quantite, l’etendueet la coherence sont largement interalliees dans larealite. Il est par exemple bien difficile d’imaginer unindividu qui a enormement d’opinions politiques surun seul sujet (grande quantite mais faible etendue),ou un individu qui a tres peu d’opinions sur beau-coup de sujets (faible quantite mais grande etendue);ou encore un individu qui a beaucoup d’opinionssur beaucoup de sujets mais tout en demeurant in-coherent. Ainsi, bien que la distinction entre cestrois elements soit utile d’un point de vue conceptuel,ces trois elements sont bien entendu largement in-terdependants.

Comment se developpe lasophistication politique?

Intuitivement, la premiere explication a laquellenous songeons habituellement pour expliquer que cer-tains individus soient plus sophistiques que d’autresconcerne l’education. L’education, pensons-nous,developpe des habiletes et inculque des connaissancessusceptibles d’aider les individus a etre plus attentifs,plus interesses et a mieux comprendre l’univers poli-

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tique. Pourtant, si cela n’est pas totalement faux, larecherche actuelle en science politique — de memeque mes propres recherches — tend a demontrer quele role de l’education soit largement surestime. Sibien sur les individus plus eduques sont en generalegalement plus sophistiques, il appert que ces indi-vidus sont deja plus informes et sophistiques avantmeme d’entrer au college ou a l’universite. Ainsi, sile lien positif entre l’education et la sophisticationexiste bel et bien, il est en fait largement expliquepar autre chose.

Mes recherches actuelles et celles d’autreschercheurs dans la discipline demontrent que le fac-teur le plus important expliquant la sophisticationpolitique est ce que nous appelons les habiletes cog-nitives. Pour le dire un peu rapidement, les habiletescognitives sont essentiellement liees a l’intelligenced’un individu. C’est a la fois l’intelligence d’un in-dividu qui explique qu’il soit plus sophistique etqu’il atteigne un niveau eleve d’education. Mesrecherches demontrent que l’education, et princi-palement l’education dans un domaine pertinenta la politique, joue un role independant dansle developpement de la sophistication, mais quel’importance de l’education demeure extremementfaible lorsque nous prenons en compte les habiletescognitives.

Ceci est tres important parce que la recherche enpsychologie demontre que les habiletes cognitivessont developpees tres tot dans la vie des individus.La plupart d’entre nous savent que les premieresannees de vie sont cruciales pour le developpementgeneral d’une personne, mais il appert qu’elles lesoient tout autant pour la sante de nos democraties.A cet egard, mes recherches demontrent que la raisonprincipale pour laquelle les habiletes cognitives sontsi importantes provient du fait qu’elles sont intime-ment liees aux habiletes linguistiques et verbales desindividus. Avoir de meilleures habiletes verbales etlinguistiques permet de mieux comprendre les ideescomplexes, soit en les lisant dans les journaux ouen ecoutant les leaders politiques. Les habiletes lin-guistiques permettent aussi de mieux exprimer desidees complexes, que ce soit a l’oral ou a l’ecrit. Uncitoyen ayant de bonnes habiletes verbales est doncplus a meme de comprendre l’univers politique etpeut plus efficacement reflechir et s’exprimer sur lesenjeux politiques.

Finalement, la recherche en psychologie demontreque les habiletes verbales se developpent tres rapide-ment des la tendre enfance et sont tres influenceespar les parents. Il est demontre que les parents destatut socio-economique plus eleve parlent davantage

a leurs enfants, utilisent un vocabulaire plus varie etune structure syntaxique plus complexe. Suivant cela,leurs enfants sont plus rapidement soumis a des stim-ulations linguistiques plus complexes et developpentainsi beaucoup plus rapidement leurs habiletes ver-bales et linguistiques. Puisque l’apprentissage denouvelles choses s’effectue toujours a partir de chosesque l’on sait deja, les enfants issus de milieux fa-vorises entrent a l’ecole elementaire avec un meilleurstock de connaissances leur permettant d’apprendreencore plus rapidement. Ainsi, de maniere analogueau fait que des placements de 100$ et de 1000$ neproduiront pas les memes benefices pour un tauxd’interet identique, la croissance des habiletes suitune courbe exponentielle plutot que lineaire. Ainsi,de petits ecarts dans les habiletes en bas age pro-duiront en fait de tres grands ecarts vingt ans plustard.

La sophistication politique du public a bienentendu des impacts majeurs sur nos democraties etc’est le cas principalement parce qu’elle structurela relation entre l’offre et la demande politique.Les individus moins sophistiques participentegalement moins aux processus politiques et sonten consequence moins bien representes. Lorsqu’ilsvotent, ils le font differemment que s’ils etaientplus sophistiques et leurs opinions politiques sontegalement differentes et plus extremes que s’ilsetaient plus informes. La sophistication politiquea donc des impacts bien reels et les personnesinteressees au marketing politique ont en ce senstout avantage a s’interesser a la sophisticationpolitique du public de meme qu’a ce qui expliqueson developpement. Finalement, puisqu’il devient deplus en plus clair que les origines de la sophisticationpolitique sont a etre trouvees dans les inegalitesdans la qualite de l’environnement de stimulationdes la tendre enfance, il faudra admettre quela sante de la vie democratique de nos societesdebute deja lorsque nous sommes encore aux couches.

Alexandre travaille sur ledeveloppement de la sophistication politique. Ils’interesse particulierement aux effets de l’education,des traits de personnalite, des habiletes cognitives etde l’interet pour la politique dans ce developpement.

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Jumping the shark:media coverage ofCanadian partyleadershipShannon SampertUniversity of Winnipeg

It is very clear that the way political news is re-ported has transitioned over time. Indeed, asour journal article, Jumping the Shark: Mediati-

zation of Canadian Party Leadership Contests, 1975– 2012 argues, mediatization has directly affected theway the Globe and Mail has covered party leader-ship contests. The article, published in JournalismPractise in 2012 and now being republished in Mak-ing Sense of Mediatized Politics: Theoretical andEmpirical Perspectives, edited by Jesper Strombackand Frank Esser, is an analysis of 13 Canadian partyleadership contests over a 37-year time period.

Mediatization is an interesting concept that hasn’tbeen widely embraced as yet in the Canadian context.In essence, mediatization looks at how media and po-litical actors work in meeting demands of normativeand market logic. On one hand, the media provideinformation about news events as a public service,to operate as an important part of democracy. Onthe other hand, particularly in this increasingly frag-mented market, the media also must perform in themarket. They must sell newspapers, ad space ontelevision and maintain audiences. Politicians alsohave two main goals. The first is also an important

part of democracy: the requirement to representconstituents and to formulate public policy for thepublic good. However, politicians also need to getelected. They need to protect and promote theirparty brand.

The way the two logics have become more deeplyentwined is the topic of this paper. As the mediamove more towards a fully market model that’s allabout maintaining readers and as politicians movemore towards a fully market model that’s all aboutgetting votes, we see a transition in media coverageof political events. This transition, we argue is the“jumping the shark” moment. “Jumping the shark,”a phrase coined by television critics to describe atelevision program’s demise, usually involves the in-troduction of gimmicks or bizarre plot twists to holdthe audience’s attention. Think for example of theplot twist in Homeland when the President’s pace-maker is hacked by terrorists or Downton Abbeywhen Matthew Crawley is killed in season 3. In2004, Maclean’s used the term to describe politicianswho lose credibility when they calculatedly engage inspectacles designed to attract media attention. Foran example of that, think of former Reform Party

PMP Canada, Winter 2014 • Jumping the shark page 9 of 19

leader, Stockwell Day arriving at a news conferencein Kelowna riding a jet-ski.

Our study builds on the mediatization literatureby mapping the impact of the ascendance of mar-ket logic on newspaper coverage of party leadershipselection processes. If newspapers are increasinglycompeting for readers and if parties and candidatesare changing their communication strategies to reflectthis logic, news stories about party leadership raceswill be more truncated, opinionated, visually ori-ented, personalized and sensationalised. We analyzenewspaper coverage of Canadian party leadershipcampaigns held between 1975 and 2012 to test theproposition that the nature of the political story be-ing told by the press will reflect key indicators of thecontemporary process of mediatization.The study ex-amines 13 national party leadership contests held bypolitical parties with seats in the House of Commonsduring a 37-year time period. All regular news sto-ries, columns, editorials and opinion pieces publishedin the Globe about a contest, from the day afterthe resignation or death of the former leader untila week after the vote to select the new leader, wereincluded in the data set for a total of 2,463 articles.To explore the effect of the mediatization process onnewspaper reporting about party leadership contests,we used content analysis.

We expected the following effects of the mediati-zation process to be discernible in changes in theGlobe’s reporting of party leadership selection pro-cesses: 1. Because of the emphasis on infotainment,there will be less coverage of political party leadershipcontests, measured by the number of stories per dayper campaign. 2. Moreover, the form and format ofreporting will illustrate a desire to capture and holdthe attention of readers by, over time, offering moreopinion pieces and photographs and fewer regularnews stories. 3. The news value of celebrity, coupledwith publicity-seeking behaviour by individual can-didates, will result in an increased individualizationof the leadership contests. As a result, leadershipcandidates will have a higher profile than their partyorganizations in story headlines. 4. An increase inthe use of aggressive words or phrases will be ap-parent in headlines, illustrating the news values ofcompetition and conflict. The transition to primarilymarket logic in mediatization was in full flight after2000, as the turn of the century marked the rise of thecontinuous campaign in Canada, the fragmentationof the media market in a time of media-saturation,and the dramatic ascension of spin-doctors in theCanadian political marketplace. As such, we com-pare indicators of mediatization in two distinct time

periods: 1975 to 1995 (seven leadership contests) and2002 to 2012 (six leadership contests). Our studyoffers four important findings consistent with themediatization thesis. First, there is less news aboutpolitical leadership contests after 2000 in the Globe.This is significant since newspapers are more likelythan other media to provide substantive and detailedcontent of political contests. Remarkably, after 2000there was less attention paid to leadership contests,even though these contests play an important rolein the policy directions of government, and choosethe individuals who may go on to govern the country.Second, after 2000 the Globe changed the format ofreporting about high-profile leadership contests, pub-lishing fewer regular news stories, and more opinionpieces and photographs. As a result, the informationabout major parties communicated by these reportsis increasingly mediated; that is, filtered, interpreted,framed and assessed by the editorial writer, colum-nist or photographer. Third, there was less attentionpaid to the parties and more attention paid to the in-dividual party leader after 2000. Finally, the Globe’scoverage after 2000 was significantly more combativein their lexical choices, thus conveying negativityand emphasizing the strategic elements of politicalprocesses. Through a systematic, large-scale quanti-tative analysis of newspaper coverage of an importantdemocratic process—party leadership selection—ourstudy the study tests key theoretical assertions ofthe mediatization literature and provides substantialevidence of Canada’s “jump the shark” transition tomarket logic mediatization.

Our research team is Shannon Sampert, WinnipegFree Press; Linda Trimble, University of Alberta;Angelia Wagner, University of Alberta; DaisyRaphael, University of Alberta; Bailey Gerrits,Queen’s University.

Shannon Sampert’s research focuseson Canadian politics, media and gender and she iscurrently involved in two SSHRC-funded projects. Thefirst is a collaboration with political scientists acrossCanada examining the mediation of provincial elec-tions. The second is a longitudinal analysis of theGlobe and Mail coverage of leadership contests inwhich women were candidates.

PMP Canada, Winter 2014 • Jumping the shark page 10 of 19

Marketing politiqueet changementsclimatiquesDavid HouleCandidat au doctorat, University of Toronto

L’election federale de 2008 a montre que leschangements climatiques et les instruments demarche pour reduire les emissions de gaz a effet

de serre (GES), en particulier les taxes carbones,peuvent constituer un enjeu important dans unecampagne electorale. Dans les faits, les changementsclimatiques ont egalement ete un enjeu dans qua-tre autres elections au Canada ces dernieres anneesincluant celles de la Colombie-Britannique en 2009et 2013, de l’Alberta en 2012 et de l’Ontario en2011. Une comparaison entre ces elections nous per-met de faire plusieurs observations sur les strategiesutilisees par les partis politiques concernant l’enjeudes changements climatiques et d’en tirer des leconsimportantes. La principale lecon est que meme si unemajorite de canadiens est en faveur des instrumentsde marche, les partis politiques de droite, autant surla scene provinciale que federale, ont ete en mesured’utiliser cet enjeu pour polariser l’electorat et mo-biliser leurs partisans. Cependant, lorsque les partisde droite appuient l’idee d’utiliser des instrumentsde marche pour lutter contre les changements cli-matiques, ils sont en mesure de creer un consensusinter-partisan sur cette question. C’est notammentce que montre l’experience du Parti liberal de laColombie-Britannique qui represente l’aile droite del’echiquier politique de cette province.

L’evolution de l’opinion publique canadienne sur

les instruments economiques en changements clima-tiques

Depuis l’emergence de l’enjeu des changementsclimatiques vers la fin des annees 80 et le debutdes annees 90, l’opinion des canadiens concernantles instruments economiques a connu une evolutionimportante, presentee a la Figure 1. En fait, depuismars 2010 une majorite de canadiens (entre 55 et57%) appuie l’idee d’une taxe visant a encouragerla reduction des emissions de GES. Il s’agit d’unprogres remarquable si l’on considere que seulement25% des canadiens appuyaient cette idee en juillet1991.

Figure 1: Support pour une taxe sur le carbone, de 1991a 2012 (Source : Environics)

PMP Canada, Winter 2014 • Marketing politique et changements climatiques page 11 of 19

De recentes etudes ont montre que le support pourdes instruments economiques en changements clima-tiques varie egalement selon le type d’instruments(Borick, Lachapelle et Rabe, 2011 ; Lachapelle,Borick, Rabe, 2012). Par exemple, les systemesde plafonnement et d’echange sont en general pluspopulaires que les taxes sur le carbone. Celadonne une opportunite pour les partis politiques derecadrer les propositions de leurs adversaires en util-isant des etiquettes tels que �taxe sur le carbone�,�taxe sur l’essence� ou encore �taxe carbone tueused’emplois� (job-killing carbon tax). Les partis poli-tiques utilisent cette strategie meme si dans les faitsles propositions de leurs adversaires sont souvent so-phistiquees, incluant des systemes de plafonnementet d’echange ou des taxes carbones associees a desmesures pour contrer leurs effets regressifs. Cesmesures incluent des reductions de taxe pour lesfamilles a faible revenu ou de l’assistance financiereaux entreprises.

La campagne electorale federale de2008

La strategie du parti conservateur federal lors de lacampagne electorale de 2008 a l’encontre du viragevert propose par le parti liberal federal, dirige parStephane Dion, est un exemple desormais celebrede recadrage d’une taxe carbone neutre sur le planfiscal. Durant cette campagne, le parti conservateura concu plusieurs publicites negatives et les a diffuseesdans les stations d’essence a travers le pays, dans lesmedias et sur Internet. La reforme fiscale proposeepar les liberaux etait decrite a la fois comme unetaxe carbone et une �taxe sur tout�. Par ailleurs, lesconservateurs insistaient egalement sur le fait qu’ils’agissait, selon leur interpretation, d’un stratagemeafin d’augmenter le fardeau fiscale des contribuables(voir Figure 2).

Dans les faits, une taxe carbone neutre sur le planfiscal, comme celle mise en œuvre par la Colombie-Britannique a partir de 2008, apporte des revenusfiscaux supplementaires aux gouvernements. Cepen-dant, plutot que de les utiliser pour financer des pro-grammes gouvernementaux additionnels, ces revenusservent a reduire le fardeau fiscal des consommateurset des entreprises. Cependant, il est a prevoir quecertaines entreprises et familles, surtout si leur con-sommation de combustibles fossiles est superieurea la moyenne, aient effectivement un fardeau fiscalplus important. Cet impact est en fait desirable envertu du principe de pollueur-payeur et incite les

Figure 2: Publicite negative des conservateurs, �Dion’sTax on Everything�

entreprises et menages emettant une plus grandequantite de GES a reduire leurs emissions par deschangements dans les technologies employees, leshabitudes de vie et les procedes employes. Cepen-dant, le fait qu’un instrument economique a un im-pact fiscal neutre pour l’ensemble de l’economie maispotentiellement negatif pour certains menages et en-treprises permet aux partis politiques d’insister surles impacts redistributifs tout en occultant l’impactfiscal total de la mesure.

Par ailleurs, le fait qu’un instrument economiques’applique a un vaste ensemble d’activites estegalement un element important de son design,qui assure a la fois l’equite entre les secteurs del’economie et de son efficacite, puisqu’un plus grandnombre d’industries et d’individus sont mis a con-tribution (Stern, 2007). Cependant, les partis poli-tiques opposes a la mesure auront tot fait de signalerque personne ne pourra echapper a la mesure quis’appliquera a un grand nombre de biens et de ser-vices via son impact sur le secteur du transport.

Une enquete d’opinion publique realisee par lesEtudes electorales canadiennes (EEC) montre bien,dans le cadre de l’election federale de 2008, les ef-fets du recadrage de la proposition du parti liberal.Lorsque l’on demande aux electeurs s’ils croient quele virage vert propose par les liberaux est nefaste pourl’economie, 40% des repondants sont d’accord (17%fortement d’accord, 23% plus ou moins d’accord).Cette proportion augmente a 53% (28% fortementd’accord, 25% plus ou moins d’accord) lorsqu’onremplace l’expression �virage vert� par �taxe car-bone� (voir Figure 3).

Cet effet est plus fort chez les partisans con-servateurs mais affecte egalement les partisansliberaux. Alors que 65% des partisans conserva-

PMP Canada, Winter 2014 • Marketing politique et changements climatiques page 12 of 19

Figure 3: Evaluation de l’impact de la taxe sur le car-bone/virage vert sur l’economie (n=1238)(source : EEC)

teurs sont fortement ou plus ou moins en accord avecl’affirmation selon laquelle le virage vert est nefastepour l’economie, cette proportion augmente a 75%lorsque l’expression �taxe sur le carbone� est utilisee.Chez les partisans liberaux, un changement similairepeut etre observe, la proportion de repondant croyantque la mesure aura un effet nefaste sur l’economiepassant de 34% a 43%. Un similaire peut etre observechez les partisans du NPD.

Changements climatiques etcampagnes electorales provinciales

L’enjeu des changements climatiques a egalementemerge dans le cadre de quatre elections provinciales,incluant celle de la Colombie-Britannique en 2009 et2013, de l’Alberta en 2012 et de l’Ontario en 2011.

En ce qui concerne la Colombie-Britannique, legouvernement de Gordon Campbell a mis en place,des 2008, une taxe sur le carbone neutre au niveaufiscal presentee comme une composante essentielledu plan de la province pour reduire les emissions deGES. Presque aussitot le principal parti d’opposition,le NPD dirige par Carole James, s’est oppose a lamesure en insistant sur les impacts que la taxe car-bone pourrait avoir sur les familles a faible revenu quifut recadre comme etant une �taxe sur l’essence�.Durant la campagne, plusieurs groupes progressisteset ecologiques, en general favorable au NPD, ontdenonce la position du parti et ont offert leur sup-port au gouvernement liberal, qui remporta l’election.L’election de 2014 a confirme que le changementde strategie du NPD, qui appuie, maintenant lataxe sur le carbone tout en demandant qu’une par-tie des revenus soit investie dans des mesures pourla reduction des emissions comme des investisse-ments au niveau des infrastructures et des transports

publics. Un nouveau gouvernement liberal majori-taire fut cependant reelu sous le leadership de ChristyClark.

Dans le cadre de la campagne electorale albertainede 2012, l’enjeu des changements climatiques fit sonapparition a la toute fin de la campagne. Le WildroseParty, un parti d’extreme droite forme par une coali-tion regroupant des electeurs conservateurs sur lesplans economiques et moraux, avait gagne un momen-tum considerable et semblait en voie de remporterl’election etant donne l’impopularite croissante desconservateurs, au pouvoir depuis 1971. Cependant,plusieurs declarations ont nui a sa credibilite, inclu-ant l’affirmation de la part du chef du parti, DanielleSmith, a l’effet que le debat sur les changementsclimatiques n’etait pas clos (”We have always saidthe science isn’t settled and we need to continue tomonitor the debate”). Cette declaration, associee ad’autres propos controverses faits par les membresde son parti, aurait contribue a la victoire du particonservateur de l’Alberta, dirige par Alison Redford.Il est important de noter cependant l’absence decritiques emises par le Wildrose durant cette cam-pagne concernant le marche d’emissions albertain,qui entrait alors dans sa cinquieme annee de miseen œuvre. Peu de temps apres la campagne, MmeSmith se ravisa et declara qu’elle acceptait l’idee queles changements climatiques sont reels et causes parles activites humaines.

Finalement, durant l’election ontarienne de 2011,les commentaires d’un candidat liberal Dave Levac, al’effet que le gouvernement provincial considerait lapossibilite de mettre en œuvre une taxe sur le carbonesouleverent l’ire du parti conservateur, le principalparti d’opposition de la province. M. Levac cepen-dant avait confondu l’idee d’une taxe sur le carboneavec le systeme de plafonnement et d’echange que laprovince s’efforcait de developper en partenariat avecle Quebec et la Californie. Bien qu’une clarificationfut presque immediatement publiee par le candidatet le parti liberal, le parti conservateur lanca uneserie de publicites negatives. Ces publicites etaientsimilaires a celles employees par le parti conserva-teur du Canada en 2008. Elles decrivaient le chefdu parti liberal Dalton Mcguinty comme un percep-teur d’impot avide de trouver de nouvelles sources derevenus (”Dalton Mcguinty the Tax Man”). Selon lesconservateurs, ce dernier serait meme pret a envisagerune nouvelle taxe sur le carbone, presentee commeun stratageme (trick) pour augmenter le fardeau descontribuables. La campagne de 2011 se solda par unediminution marquee de l’appui pour le parti liberalqui forma un gouvernement minoritaire. Dans les

PMP Canada, Winter 2014 • Marketing politique et changements climatiques page 13 of 19

mois suivants l’election, le gouvernement annoncaqu’il renoncait a l’idee de mettre en œuvre un systemede plafonnement et d’echange de droits d’emission.Cette decision a ete prise, dans un contexte ou lesenjeux energetiques devinrent particulierement sensi-bles en raison de la hausse des prix de l’energie, descritiques a l’endroit du programme de rachat garan-tis (feed-in tariff) et le scandale lie a l’annulation dedeux centrales au gaz naturel.

Quelles sont les lecons que l’on peut tirer del’utilisation de l’enjeu des changements climatiquespar les partis politiques dans la campagne federale de2008 et dans les campagnes electorales des provincescanadiennes?

Premierement, lorsque les partis politiques veu-lent discrediter les politiques en changements clima-tiques de leurs adversaires, la premiere etape consistea proceder a un recadrage des mesures proposees.Dans tous les cas observes, un eventail complexe demesures sophistiquees incluant des taxes carbonesneutres sur le plan fiscal et des systeme de plafon-nement et d’echange de droits d’emission sont toutsimplement decrits comme etant une taxe carbone,une �taxe sur l’essence� ou encore une �taxe surtout�. Ces cadrages minimisent le lien entre lesmesures proposees et l’enjeu des changements cli-matiques tout en insistant sur l’augmentation dufardeau fiscal des contribuables qu’elles pourraientengendrer. En examinant de pres l’impact de cerecadrage sur l’evaluation des electeurs concernantl’effet de ces mesures sur l’economie durant l’electionfederale de 2008, il est possible de constater qu’ilsrenforcent les prejuges negatifs des partisans con-servateurs a l’encontre des instruments economiquestout en semant le confusion au sein des electeursliberaux et progressistes.

Deuxiemement, lorsque l’on compare l’utilisationde cette strategie par differents partis politiques, ilest possible de constater que les partis de droitel’ont utilisee avec plus de succes que les partis degauche. Dans les faits, lorsque les partis politiquesqui controlent l’aile droite de l’echiquier politiquede leur province appuient l’utilisation d’instrumentseconomiques, ils se placent dans une position deforce comparativement aux partis progressistes. Cefaisant, ils peuvent ainsi creer un consensus sur cetenjeu. C’est notamment le cas des partis liberauxdu Quebec et de la Colombie-Britannique ainsi quedes progressistes conservateurs de l’Alberta. Toute-fois, la montee des partis d’extreme droite, tel que leWildrose Party et la Coalition Avenir Quebec, vientbrouiller les cartes, bien que pour l’instant ces par-tis se sont montres prudents concernant l’enjeu des

changements climatiques. Dans le cas du WildroseParty, ses positions climato-sceptiques ont memecontribue a le discrediter lors de la campagne de2012.

Troisiemement, les partis progressistes ou cen-tristes confrontes a un adversaire supporte parun electorat de droite doivent faire preuve d’uneextreme prudence etant particulierement vulnerableau recadrage de leurs propositions de politiques enchangements climatiques. Cette conclusion est tireede l’experience des partis liberaux du Canada et del’Ontario qui ont ete confrontes sur cet enjeu pardes partis conservateurs recadrant leur politique duclimat, une reforme fiscale verte et un systeme depermis et d’echange de droits d’emission, commeetant des taxes sur le carbone.

Finalement, l’exemple du NPD de la Colombie-Britannique montre egalement que lorsqu’un partiprogressiste tente de rallier l’opposition a des instru-ments de marche en changements climatiques, il y aun risque reel de s’aliener leurs allies traditionnels, in-cluant les groupes progressistes et environnementaux.

David Houle est doctorant audepartement de science politique et au Centre for En-vironment de l’Universite de Toronto. Il a obtenu unemaıtrise en analyse des politiques (2007) et un bac-calaureat en economie et en science politique (2005)de l’Universite Laval. Ses recherches sont principale-ment axees sur les politiques en changement clima-tique. Il s’interesse egalement aux politiques publiquesen general ainsi qu’a la politique quebecoise et cana-dienne.

PMP Canada, Winter 2014 • Marketing politique et changements climatiques page 14 of 19

The New-Zealand2014 Election from apolitical marketingperspectiveJennifer Lees-MarshmentAuckland University, New Zealand

Ihave now got 13 books to my name but what Isaid in my very first book published in 2001stands–that political marketing is not about

the campaign, it’s about the product on offer andwhether it responds to voters needs as well as wants,and whether the party and its leader can deliverit if elected to government. The product includesleadership. John Key, leader of the National Partyand Prime Minister for two terms, won on leadershipand capable governing, delivered to the public overthe last six years. Whilst the Labour oppositionoffered policies that appealed to growing voter con-cerns about inequality and low wages, voters did notbelieve they–and their leader David Cunliffe–coulddeliver them. There is little point promising peoplewhat they want if no one believes you can deliver it.Political marketing isn’t about promising the earth;and voters are mature enough to know they want aleader to offer them what they–and their country–need, as well as want. They also know they needa leader who people can envisage becoming PrimeMinister. National won on delivery in so much asthey were seen as a team capable of governing andlargely to have delivered on previous promises. And

they seemed responsive–Key’s first comment whenhe met the media after winning outside his house wasto thank New Zealanders for their vote. That basicrespect for voters is what has won him his third termof government. Even after losing badly Labour leaderDavid Cunliffe showed very little humility–there wasstill a questioning of voters judgement in supportinga party dogged by dirty politics back into power, anda lack of responsibility for his party’s losses with himbeing quick to say he would carry on as leader of theparty.

However there is also a hidden story with thiselection is that National actually made a number ofmistakes. Their pollster David Farrarr noted the dayafter the election in the television programme Q&Athat part of their success was the impact of voteswhich went to other parties who did not reach the5% threshold: “its not that they got a lot more votesthan last time but because there was the wasted votethat gave them their majority.” Vote Compass - theonline voter education tool invented in Canada–wasrun by TVNZ in the NZ election and I was luckyto be involved in it. The data suggested there area number of growing voter concerns which national

PMP Canada, Winter 2014 • The NZ 2014 Election page 15 of 19

policies were not addressing. Data revealed a strongunderlying sense with voters across party and incomelines that something is not quite right. In the finalstory run on TVNZ on election night we noted howdespite dirty politics people care most about ordi-nary issues that affect their daily lives. However,whilst Key also said this during the campaign, thesame data suggested they didn’t feel National hadaddressed those issues well enough. New Zealanderswanted to see the new government do more for or-dinary people. They wanted more done on the gapbetween rich and poor, minimum wage and tax. Atthe same time there was support for achievementin education (free tiertiary education, national stan-dards) suggesting people want to see an increase insuccess and skills. To adapt the three main partycampaign slogans...things were not quite working forNZ as they should. Not everything is as positive aswe might have wanted it to be. And New Zealanderswere not getting as much love as they should.

Labour’s weaknesses and the election result is iron-ically a risk for National because they have not hadto work as hard as they should to get a third termin power, and unless they are very wise and unusu-ally reflective–and most third term governments arenot–they will follow the standard pattern of descend-ing pretty quickly into arrogance and complacency.National’s overall brand vision was never articulatedclearly in the campaign. Key talked of being on the“cusp of something special” without every saying whatthat “something special” was. New Zealanders havevoted for a third term National government with-out really knowing for sure what they have votedfor. Unless Key can prove himself an exceptionalleader and avoid becoming arrogant with the 2014result–and he would be bucking every trend to doso–he may find he has power but not the mandate toenact change in this third term. The Key legacy maysimply end up being careful economic managementbut never anything that special.

National failed to engage in pre-election delivery.They didn’t make the product clear, they didn’thave 3-5 clear pledges or focused areas they wantedto delivery on that voters could then assess theirperformance on, or the government could demon-strate quick wins on once re-elected. This meansthey don’t as yet have a mandate, they haven’t gal-vanised support behind their product (no one reallyknows what it is apart from economic managementand that is not enough), and so they have failed tomanage expectations of what it is they will deliver.So right wing supporters may be expecting a move tothe right, middle NZ supporters want more centrist

policies and left wing voters won’t even bother tothink they will be considered and will already beexpecting to oppose what the new government does.

Add this to the general trend of all third termgovernments to become arrogant and out of touch–in political marketing terms we say they will losetheir market-orientation–and this could become achallenge for Key in power. I don’t know any exampleof a leader/party who has avoided losing touch andbecoming arrogant in a third term. And this will bemade worse by Labour doing so badly as this couldmake it harder for them to offer a strong opposition.

The good thing for National is Key demonstrated ahighly unusual awareness of this in the post-electionappearances. At a press conference on Sunday andthrough at least 6 media outlets on Monday 22September–New Zealand Herald,TVNZ breakfast,TV3 firstline, Radio New Zealand, Campbell Live,seven sharp–he talked of the need to avoid beingarrogant, stay in the centre ground, and considerthat New Zealanders cared about those less well offso the new government. On breakfast TV he said“all I do know is third term governments and gov-ernments that have an absolute majority always runthat risk [of being arrogant]...our political opponentswill say that over the next three years; the test isn’tso much whether they say it, it’s whether the publicfeel it. I just know that we should carry on with theform that we’ve had–in other words hug the centreline, be there to represent all New Zealanders, chal-lenge ourselves, make sure we do look at some ofthose challenging issues, and say are we really doingenough in those places?” On Campbell Live he eventalked about having a chat with colleagues about thepotential new direction: “if I could take the bold stepof speaking for the million odd people that voted forus, they are caring New Zealanders; they do recog-nise that there are others that need more support.”Maybe he listened to the Vote Compass data afterall?

Looking forward, my overall interpretation ofthe election is that whilst there was a desire andsupport for continuing in the same direction as wehave been, the new National Government needs todo more so that everyone can be on that boat/doingwell. In their campaign, National used a rowingboat analogy to suggest they don’t rock the boatas it was moving forward under their leadership,but Vote Compass data suggested Kiwis think somepeople might have missed the boat and are gettingleft behind. There are underlying storms for thenew government to navigate their way through–thepublic is worried not everyone is able to keep up,

PMP Canada, Winter 2014 • The NZ 2014 Election page 16 of 19

or go as fast as they could. The new governmentneeds to do more to bring more people on board;it needs to make spreading the success a priority;and ensure everyone in the boat has the right skills.Kiwis see the progress that has been made so far,but they don’t want the government to leave somepeople behind. What policies they use to do thatare of course a debate–Labour lost, after all–so Iwouldn’t advise them to just go and adopt policiesVote Compass showed support for. Instead, theyneed to find a National version of a response tothe concerns. And Labour need to find their ownversion too. Which party succeeds in creating acredible, deliverable product that meets those con-cerns will win the next election. But it won’t be easy.

Jennifer Lees-Marshment is an Asso-ciate Professor and A-rated researcher at AucklandUniversity in New Zealand. She is a research-led butpractice-oriented academic who researches the rela-tionship between politicians, government and publicopinion, mainly through the field of political market-ing which she has established international expertisein, but more recently, political leadership. She is au-thor/editor of 13 books in the field of political market-ing.

PMP Canada, Winter 2014 • The NZ 2014 Election page 17 of 19

Call for Papers / Appels de communications

2015 Global Political Marketing & Management Conference WellingtonWellington, New Zealand5-7 June, 2015The School of Marketing & International Business at Victoria Business School, Victoria University ofWellington, is pleased to host and organise Global Political Marketing and Management Conference 2015.Deadline for conference only papers: 1 February 2015.See: http://www.victoria.ac.nz/smib/research/global-political-marketing-and-management-conference-2015

PSA Political Marketing Group NewsletterInformation transfer between all members, including political marketing scholars, practitioners and experts.The PMG newsletter provides you with the opportunity to communicate with political marketing scholars,practitioners and experts. If you have anything you would like included in a PMG newsletter (being released inMarch, June, and September) please send it to Jennifer Lees-Marshment at j.lees-marshment@auckland.ac.nzor Edward Elder at eeld001@aucklanduni.ac.nz. Items that may be included may be, but not exclusive to,recently released or upcoming books, upcoming events and conferences, career or scholarship opportunities,or any articles about recent elections, trends and academic findings.Next deadline for submissions: 15th March 2015.See: http://sites.google.com/site/psapmg/home

PMP Canada, Winter 2014 page 18 of 19

New Books / Nouveaux Livres

Political Communication in Canada: Meet the Press and Tweet the RestAlex Marland, Thierry Giasson and Tamara A. SmallUBC PressRelease Date: 9/21/2014ISBN: 9780774827768316 pages

Never before has the two-way flow of information between the public and elected officials been easier and,paradoxically, more complex than it is now. Changes in technology and media consumption are transformingthe way people communicate about politics. Are they also changing the way politicians communicate to thepublic?

In the era of the permanent campaign, negative advertising, personalized politics, and social media,Political Communication in Canada examines the way political parties, politicians, interest groups, the media,and citizens are using new tactics, tools, and channels to disseminate information, and also investigates theimplications of these changes.

Drawing on recent examples, contributors review the branding of the New Democratic Party, howStephen Harper’s image is managed, and politicians’ use of Twitter. They also discuss the evolving role ofpolitical journalism, including the struggles of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery, how the mediacovers politics, and how Canadians use the Internet for political discussions. At a time when politicalcommunication – from political marketing to citizen journalism – is of vital importance to the workingsof government, this volume provides insight into how key political actors in Canada are conveying theirmessages and raises important questions about the future of Canadian democracy.

Contributors: Penelope Daignault; Susan Delacourt; Anna Esselment; Elisabeth Gidengil; Georgina C.Grosenick; Harold Jansen; Royce Koop; Mireille Lalancette, with Alex Drouin and Catherine Lemarier-Saulnier; Andrea Lawlor; Adam Mahon; J. Scott Matthews; Denver McNeney; Mike Moyes; Daniel J. Pare;Stuart Soroka; and Jared J. Wesley

PMP Canada, Winter 2014 page 19 of 19

Contact Information • Pour nous joindrePolitical Marketing politique - CanadaDepartement de science politiquePavillon Charles-De Koninck, bureau 3449Universite Laval, 1030 avenue des Sciences-HumainesQuebec City (Quebec) G1V 0A6Canada

Web: www.pmpcanada.ulaval.caEmail: info@pmpcanada.ulaval.caFacebook: facebook.com/pages/PMP-Canada/

Thierry Giasson, Directeur/DirectorThierry Giasson is associate professor in the department of political science at UniversiteLaval, in Quebec City. Dr. Giasson is the lead investigator of the Groupe de recherche encommunication politique (GRCP) at the same institution. His work focuses on new formsof political communication on the web and on the effects of political communication andmarketing practices on political behavior, electoral campaigns, political participation andcivic engagement in Quebec and Canada.

Yannick Dufresne, Editeur/EditorYannick is a doctoral candidate in the department of political science at the Universityof Toronto. He will soon begin a postdoctoral fellowship at Laval University. He receivedhis undergraduate and Master’s degrees from the University of Montreal. His academicinterests are in Canadian politics and political behaviour. His research principally focuseson electoral strategies, voting behaviour, and the effects of political issues.