Retour sur « The Future of Hydrogen - AFHYPACafhypac.org/documents/IEA G20 Hydrogen Report PL_diffusion OK.pdf · •2019 FCH2JU Study Hydrogen Roadmap Europe –published in February

AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY TECHNOLOGY COLLABORATION PROGRAMME

Les positions exprimées dans cette présentation ni ne reflètent ni n’engagent celles de l IEALes positions exprimées dans cette présentation ni ne reflètent ni n’engagent celles de l IEA

Retour sur « The Future of Hydrogen »Rapport IEA pour le G20, Juin 2019 Japon

La place de l’hydrogène dans les discussions internationales multilatérales

Paul Lucchese, Chair IEA Hydrogen TCPDirecteur adjoint Capenergies

Journées Hydrogène dans les Territoires, Marseille, 10-11 juillet 2019


Les positions exprimées dans cette présentation ni ne reflètent ni n’engagent celles de l IEA

Energy Ministerial Meeting:– G7 (1976) and G20(1999) Energy Ministerial meetings>> input for G7/G20 meetings

– Clean Energy Ministerial (2010,CEM, 28 countries) and Mission Innovation (2015, 24 countries) meetings

– IEA Ministerial meeting (1976): European Countries, North America (Mexico), Chile, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Turkey, Associate and partners countries (Chine, Inde, Argentina, Russie, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand, Moroccco, Singapore…)

International organizations– OECD (1945) and IEA(1974), ITF (2006), AEN (1958)

– IRENA (2009)

– REN 21(2005, UNEP secretariat)

– United Nations(1945), UNIDO(1967), PNUE (1972), World Economic Forum(Davos) (1971)

– Plus private organization: World Energy Council(1923), WBCSD(1991), Energy Breakthrough Coalition(2015)…

– Thematic Initiative (GBEP, CSLF, IPHE, REEP, H2 ministerial meeting) and Initiative from COP21

Où discute-t-on de l’énergie au niveau multilatéral ?

IEA has a leading role in the international energy landscape– EBC Energy Business Council, EVI, E4, SDG

– CETP programme

– Official secretariat for Clean Energy Ministerial,

– Strong cooperation with Mission Innovation

– Collaboration with IRENA, REN21

“the IEA’s unique positioning as the only

organisation that covers the full energy mix,

enabling a holistic perspective on

developments and their implications at a time

when the global energy system is transforming

rapidly, with implications both in the medium

and long term on energy security”



PARIS Secretariat Team (300 people)leaded by Fatih Birol

A referent expert in Energy analysis Scenarios

Plus advisory or strategic bodies

An Influent expertinternational organizations

IEAA three pillar organization

Network of 39 TCPs6000 expert’s network

Renewables, Smart Grid, oil gas, CCS, Hydrogen, Fuel cells, Electric vehicle, combustion, ICE, Fusion, Heat and Cooling, storage, heat pump…



Après 3 années de Stagnation les émissions de CO2 repartent à la hausseWarning de Fatih Birol Directeur executif de l’IEA octobre 2018 La Chine, Le charbon….

premières causes de l’évolution du CO2

Source IEA 2018

Source IEA 2018


Fin 2017 Parc Mondial

Parc Eolien Installé: 514 GW

Parc PV 400 GW

Source Wikipedia, BP Statistical review, Irena Renewables Capacity Statistic 2018

Malgré une « massification » sans précédent de l’éolien et du PV…



Atteindre les objectifs Climat sera difficile dans deux secteurs:Transports et Industrie

Source: IEA 2DS scenario, Renewables division Report, 2017, IEA



La demande mondiale en énergie va augmenter~13 000 MToe actuellement


Deux scenarios: prise en compte des nouvelles politiques en cours versus respect objectif climat, qualité air et accès energie

Source IEA WEO 2018

CO2 emissions:

+10% 2040/2017

CO2 emissions:

- 50 % 2040/2017


L’atteinte des objectifs de la transition énergétique croissance économique, accès à l’énergie moderne, objectifs climatiques, sécurité d’approvisionnent

passe par une approche intégrée combinant:

La « massification de la massification » des renouvelables H2

Le développement de nouveaux flux internationaux massifs d’énergies décarbonées H2

Le rôle crucial des Bioenergies « Géant méconnu » H2

Le rôle du nucléaire H2 ? Publication Rapport Nucléaire IEA Mai 2019

Le rôle du CCS/CCUS avec les énergies fossiles H2

L’efficacité énergétique

Le rôle du numérique et des smart grids

H2 L’hydrogène pour l’industrie, le transport



Déclaration finale G20 Karuizawa et sommet Chefs Etats Osaka

• Energy

• 37. We acknowledge the importance of energy transitions that realize the "3E+S" (Energy Security, Economic Efficiency, and Environment + Safety) in order to transform our energy systems into affordable, reliable, sustainable and low GHG emissions systems as soon as possible, recognizing that there are different possible national paths to achieve this goal. Recalling the G20 Ministerial Meeting on Energy Transitions and Global Environment for Sustainable Growth Communique, we acknowledge the role of all energy sources and technologies in the energy mix and different possible national paths to achieve cleaner energy systems. We also recognize opportunities offered by further development of innovative, clean and efficient technologies for energy transitions, including hydrogen as well as, depending on national circumstances, the Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) taking note of work on "Carbon Recycling" and "Emissions to Value ………”

3. The G20 Energy Ministers recognize opportunities for forms of energy carriers and storage including hydrogen in fostering a cleaner energy future that supports economic growth, noting relevant international organizations’ reports such as the IEA hydrogen report. The G20 Energy Ministers will step up existing international efforts to unlock the potential of hydrogen as a clean, reliable and secure source of energy including cooperation in research and development, evaluating hydrogen’s technical and economic potential, cost reduction pathways and addressing the various challenges including regulations and standards.



Une dynamique sans précédent sur l’hydrogène depuis 3 ans…

World Governments• 2015 COP21 Paris Agreement

• 2017 Davos 2017: Creation of Hydrogen Council

• 2017 Japanese Prime Minister announces Japan’s intent to become world’s first hydrogen society

• 2018 Hydrogen adopted as 8th MISSION INNOVATION Challenge in May

• 2018 European Ministries – Linz Declaration on Hydrogen in September

• 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C in October; hydrogen workshop in October

• 2018 Japan makes voluntary contribution to IEA for preparation of G20 Report on Hydrogen to be delivered June 2019 at G20 Meeting

• 2018 First Hydrogen Ministerial Meeting in Japan in October produces “Tokyo Statement”

• 2019 FCH2JU Study Hydrogen Roadmap Europe – published in February

• 2019 Hydrogen Initiative at CEM, Vancouver

• 2019 Delivery of IEA Hydrogen Report at G20 Meeting in June with strategic workshop in June

• 2019 2nd Hydrogen Ministerial Meeting in fall



“All of IEA” effort on hydrogen in 2019

Reports / new hydrogen web portal

Technology Network Convening Power / Business Network

Energy Business Council

Secretariat

Events

Source IEA, 2019, EBC April 2019



Objectifs et Domaine du rapport « The future of Hydrogen »

• Evaluer l’état de l’art et les potentiels des chaînes de valeur Hydrogène

• Repérer les tendances et évolutions, les appuis des politiques publiques

• Evaluation des coûts

• Priorites d’ici 2030: comment passer d’une vision long terme à une vision moyen terme

• Le rapport n’est pas un one shot de l IEA

• Engagement de l’IEA pérenne sur l’hydrogène:

– Forces permanents, ETP WEO etc..

– Portail IEA Hydrogène

– Animation Initiative CEM Hydrogène

– Lien Mission Innovation

– Implication du TCP IEA Hydrogen au sein des initiatives IEA

– …..



Hydrogen – A common element of our energy future ?

• Momentum currently behind hydrogen is unprecedented, with more and more policies, projects and plans by governments & companies in all parts of the world

• Hydrogen can help overcome many difficult energy challenges

• Integrate more renewables, including by enhancing storage options & tapping their full potential

• Decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors such as steel, chemicals, trucks, ships & planes

• Enhance energy security by diversifying the fuel mix & providing flexibility to balance grids

• But there are challenges: costs need to fall; infrastructure needs to be developed; cleaner hydrogen is needed; and regulatory barriers persist

Source IEA, 2019The future of Hydrogen, Webinar



Les 7 recommandations de l IEA pour le passage à l’échelle

• Establish a role for hydrogen in long-term energy strategies

• Stimulate commercial demand for clean hydrogen

• Address investment risks for first-movers

• Support R&D to bring down costs

• Eliminate unnecessary regulatory barriers and harmonise standards

• Engage internationally and track progress

• Focus on four key opportunities to further increase momentum over the next decade




Focalisation sur 4 opportunités pour le passage à l’échelle



Boosting policy momentum via near-term value chains

Value chainContribution to 2030

goals Focus regions

Coastal industrial hubsStart building future

hydrogen hubs

Europe, China, Latin

America, United States

Existing gas

infrastructure

Develop dependable

demand for hydrogenNorth America, Europe

Fleets, freight and

corridors

Make fuel cell vehicles

more competitive

China, Japan, Korea, South

Africa, United States

The first shipping routesKick-start international

hydrogen trade

Asia-Pacific, Middle East,

Europe


Les positions exprimées dans cette présentation ni ne reflètent ni n’engagent celles de l IEALes positions exprimées dans cette présentation ni ne reflètent ni n’engagent celles de l IEA

Quelques points de discussion





Les utilisations actuelles de l’hydrogène..carboné

Global demand for hydrogen in pure forms has grown steadily over the past 50 years to around 70 Mt today. More than 40 Mt is also produced in a mixture of other gases.

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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018e

Millio

n t

on

nes

of

hyd

rog

en

Refining

Ammonia

Other pure

Methanol

Steelmaking (DRI)

Other mixed

Pure hydrogen

Mixed together with other gases




Les coûts actuels de production

Virtually all hydrogen today is produced using fossil fuels, as a result of favourable economics

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

2018

Mt/

yr

CO2

Gas

Oil

Coal

0

2

4

6

8

Natural gas Natural gas

w/CCUS

Coal Renewables

USD

/kg

Hydrogen production costs, 2018




Variabilité des coûts de l’hydrogène selon la zone géographique

In countries reliant on gas imports but with good renewable resources, hydrogen production from renewable electricity can be cost-competitive with production from natural gas.

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1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Australia China Europe India Japan Middle East United

States

USD

/kg

H2

Electrolysis (grid)

Natural gas with CCUS

Natural gas

Coal

Hydrogen production costs by region, 2018




La production d Hydrogène associé au CCS se développe

Operational

Planned

Facilities with hydrogen production and CCUS Source IEA, 2019The future of Hydrogen, Webinar



La production massive d Hydrogène bas coût à partir de

Renouvelables va se développer dans des regions favorisées

The declining costs of solar PV and wind could make them a low-cost source for hydrogen production in regions with favourable resource conditions.

USD/kgH2




Un optimum technico-économique favorable

0

5

10

15

20

USD

/kg

H2

Full load hours

Electricity use

CAPEX+OPEX

Hydrogen costs from

Electrolytic hydrogen production cost at different full load hours

Area of lowest

hydrogen costs




2030: Etendre les applications de l’hydrogène

Dependable demand from current industrial applications can be used to boost clean hydrogen production; policies & industry targets suggest increasing use in other sectors, but ambition needs to increase.

Growth in hydrogen use based on announced policies, 2018-2030

New uses

Buildings

Trucks

Cars

Other


Growth to 2030, 24 MtTotal growth

Chemicals

Refining

Steel

New uses

Total growth

Chemicals

Refining

Steel

New uses

Total growth

Chemicals

Refining

Steel

New uses

Total growth

Chemicals

Refining

Steel

New uses



Marché du secteur chimique porteur

Hydrogen demand for ammonia and methanol for existing applications is set to rise

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2018e 2030 2050

Ammonia

MtH

2/y

r

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2018e 2030 2050

Methanol

MtH

2/y

r

Fertiliser

Methanol to

olefins and

aromatics

Industrial

applications




La question des l’automobile bas carbone électrique?

Total costs of ownership could break even with EVs at 400 km drive range. Prospects for fuel cell cars depend on cost reductions in fuel cells and storage tanks, and the utilisation of stations.

0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 0,80 0,90

Fuel cell EV

400 km

Battery EV

400 km

Battery EV

250 km

Fuel cell EV

400 km

Battery EV

400 km

To

day

Lon

g t

erm

Total cost of ownership for cars (USD/km)

Battery, fuel cell

Operations and maintenance

Electricity, fuel

Refuelling, charging infrastructure

Low utilisation of infrastructure




Le marché prometteur des transports lourds (camions, autocars, trains…)?

Fuel costs make up about half of the total cost of ownership for heavy-duty truck; reducing the delivered price of hydrogen is key to achieving cost-competiveness with alternative fuels.

0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8

Fuel cell EV

Battery EV

Hybrid catenary

Diesel Hybrid

Lon

g t

erm

Total cost of ownership for trucks (USD/km)

Battery, fuel cell

Operations and maintenance

Electricity, fuel

Refuelling, charging

Low utilisation of infrastructure




Les réseaux de gaz et le résidentiel:

marché important à court terme avec beaucoup de défis

Potential hydrogen demand might be on the order of 12–20 MtH2/yr in key markets, but would require the final energy prices for hydrogen to be ranging USD 1.5–3.0/kgH2 in order to be competitive.

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Canada United

States

Japan Korea Western

Europe

Russia China

Hyd

rog

en

dem

an

d (

MtH

2)

Potential hydrogen demand for heating in buildings 2030




Coastal industrial clusters: Gateways to building hydrogen hubs

Industrial clusters are places where existing uses of hydrogen can be leveraged as sources of demand for new hydrogen production facilities and CCUS without extensive new infrastructure.

(Chemical)

Feedstock

High-

temperature

heat

Steelmaking

Electrolysis

or

Natural gas

+ CCS

Buffer

storage

Hydrogen

imports

Local

pipeline

Hydrogen

grids

Vehicle

corridors

Potential expansion

Confidential




Merci de votre attention

Documents

Retour sur « The Future of Hydrogen - AFHYPACafhypac.org/documents/IEA G20 Hydrogen Report PL_diffusion OK.pdf · •2019 FCH2JU Study Hydrogen Roadmap Europe –published in February