Survey of Marine/Offshore Trendscismart.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2-Marine-Offshore... · 2016-07-13 · Propulsion Diesel engines dominate the marine market but .. LNG use increasing

Strategic Workshop

National Network for Innovative Shipbuilding/Marine Research and Training Vancouver,BC6July2016

Survey of Marine/Offshore Trends

RogerBasu&AssociatesInc.

2

Overview

�  SketchofRelevantGlobalTrends§  Shipping

§  Energy

�  What’sHappeningNow

�  WhichTechnologyAreas§  Themes

§  Somespecifictechnologies

2 RogerBasu&AssociatesInc.

3 3

GlobalTrends


4

GlobalTrends-Growthofseabornetrade


Growthinshippingexceededeconomicgrowth-globalizaSon

5

GlobalTrends-Shippingroutes

5 Source:NicholasRapp,vox.comRogerBasu&AssociatesInc.

NoteportacSvityintheEast–Shanghai,Singapore,Guangzhou…

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GlobalTrends-Energyusage

�  Oil,asa%ageofenergyused,hasdecreasedoverseveraldecades

�  Gasusesteadilyincreasing

�  Renewables§  LowstarSngpoint

§  Rapidlyincreasing


Source:BPEnergyOutlook2016

7

What’sHappeningNow-Bulkcarrierrates

�  Shippingisaboomandbustindustry

�  AnindirectmeasureoftheshippingindustryistheBalScDryIndex

7

Boominworldtrade

2008financialcrisis

Recordlowfreightrates


8

What’sHappeningNow-WorldShipbuilding

�  Commercialshipbuilding-severecontracSon§  Bulkcarriers,asashiptype,havesufferedmostfromtheeconomicdownturn

§  Containercarriersexperiencedamini-boomunSllastyear

§  Tankersalsosawamodestincreasebutnotthisyyear

§  Overallworldshipbuildinghascontracted

�  Overcapacityintheworld’sshipyards

8

Source:RichardScoK,quotedbunkerist.com


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What’sHappeningNow-Glutofships

�  Currently“bust”phaseoftheshipbuilding

�  Clientscancellingordersordelayingdelivery

�  Lowworldgrowthmeansitwilltakeyearstoregainstability

�  InthemeanSmeshipyardssuffer

§  Especiallythegiants


Source:ClarksonResearch,20May2016

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What’sHappeningNow-Somegoodnews

�  Cruiseshipordersarehealthy§  DominatedbyEuropeanyards

§  Chineseyardsshowinginterest

�  Shipshavegotbigger§  Cost($/berth)goesdownwithsize

�  Ordersforferriesarealsoingoodshape


Source:ClarksonResearch,20May2016

Year of Delivery

Number of Ships

2016 10

2017 11

2018 17

2019 16

2020 8

2021 9

Source:www.amem

.at

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What’sHappeningNow-Orderbookforoffshorestructuresalsosuffering

�  A


FloaSngproducSonunitsonly

Source:EnergyM

ariPmeAssociates

PteLtdwebsite

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What’sHappeningNow-RenewableEnergy

12 RogerBasu&AssociatesInc.Source:ClarksonResearch,1Dec2015

�  Windturbines-greaterinterestinsiteswelloffshore

�  Consequence§  Deeperwaters

§  FloaSngratherthatfixedinstallaSons

�  Interestinmarinerenewablesgrowing

fixed

flo

a?ng

13 13

WhichTechnologyAreas?


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What’sDrivingInnovaSon

�  Drivetoreducecostsacutenow:§  Loweconomicgrowth

−  Uncertainty

−  Demographicstrends

§  Lowoilprices

§  Excessshipandoffshorebuildingcapacity

�  InnovaSonalsodrivenby§  Change–conflict,poliScs,climatechange….

§  Regulatorychanges−  Environmental

−  Safety

§  Lackofqualifiedpersonnel−  IncreasingrelianceonautomaSon


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What’sDrivingInnovaSon

�  Technologieslikelytobeimplemented–basedonsurveyofshipownersGreenshipping/energyefficiency

Marineengg./Propulsion

Navarch/engineering

OperaSonal

15 RogerBasu&AssociatesInc. Source:DNVReportShipping2020,2012

retrofitnewbuild

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TechnologyThemes

�  SeveralorganizaSonsaiempttopredicttechnologyneedsforthefuture:§  VariousinternaSonalandnaSonalagencies

§  ClassificaSonsocieSes

�  Ageneralconsensus(?)hasemergedinsomeareas

�  Selectedtechnologieshighlightedinfollowingslides


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TechnologyThemes

�  Somekeythemes:§  Advancedmaterials

§  InformaSontechnologyandcommunicaSons

§  AutomaSon&roboScs

§  Sustainableshipping

§  Safety

�  Somespecificaspects§  EngineeringsimulaSon

§  Propulsion

§  Assetintegritymanagement

§  Aquaculture


§  Navaltechnology

§  Seabedmining

§  FloaSnginfrastructure

§  MarinehabitaSon

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AdvancedMaterials

�  Steelisbyfarthemostcommonmaterialinships(hull,equipment…)

�  Aluminumhullconfinedtosmallerfasterships

�  Advancedcompositeshavetechnicaladvantagesovermetalsbutareexpensive

�  Butascostscomedown…


LightweightsteerablethrusterfromRollsRoycemakesextensiveuseofcarbonfibrematerialsSource:RollsRoycewebsite

Norwegianferry–Lightweightcarbon-fibrehull.Hybridpower–diesel/baierySource:“CompositesToday”website

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InformaSonTechnology&CommunicaSons


10thAnn

ualA

PICybersecurityCo

nference&Expo,201

5

�  Cyberaiacksareexpectedtogrow

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InformaSonTechnology&CommunicaSons

�  IncommonwithotherindustriesbothmarineandoffshoreindustriesrelyincreasinglyonsophisScatedsokwaresystems§  Fewercrew,greaterrelianceoncomputer-basedtechnologiessuchas:

−  ECDIS(ElectronicChartDisplayandInformaSonSystem)

−  DGPS/GPS

−  AIS(AutomatedIdenSficaSonSystem)

−  GMDSS(GlobalMariSmeDistressandSafetySystem)

§  Navies–cyberandelectronicwarfare

§  Ports–cyber-security,smuggling

§  OilandgasinstallaSons


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AutomaSon&RoboScs-Unmannedships

�  Unmannedshipsarebeingproposedprimarilyfortworeasons:§  Safety

§  Economy

�  Sensorsandcomputersystemstoreplacelessreliablehumans

�  Hybridsystemsproposed§  Convoys–unmannedshipsledbyconvenSonallymannedship

§  Hybridscheme–shipismannedincoastalregionsandports


Source:RollsRoyceplc

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AutomaSon&RoboScs-AUVsandUUVs

�  UnmannedUnderseaVehiclesimportantforinspecSonandrepairofships&offshoreassets§  Remotelyoperatedunderwatervehicles(ROVs)

§  Autonomousunderwatervehicles(UUVs)

�  Challenges§  CommunicaSons

§  Range


Source:Douglas-Westwood;quotedinOECDReportC/WP6(2015)5/FINAL,2015

ImportantforsubseaoperaSons

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AutomaSon&RoboScs-RoboPcs

�  SomeacSviSesmightbebeierperformedusingrobots§  InspecSonsandrepairinhazardousareas−  Corrosion

−  Cracks

§  FirefighSng

�  Shipbuilding§  Profileculng

§  Panelwelding

§  Pipework

§  Etc.23 RogerBasu&AssociatesInc.

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SustainableShipping

�  ClimatechangeimpetusfornewIMOregulaSons


Source:EmissionReducPonintheShippingIndustry,July2013,SustainalyPcs

ECA EmissionControlArea EEDI Energy-EfficiencyDesignIndexSEEMP ShipEnergyEfficiencyManagementPlan

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SustainableShipping-Driverforseveraltechnologydevelopments


�  Lightermaterials

�  Improvedhullforms

�  Moreefficientpropulsionsystems

�  Baierytechnologies

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Safety

�  Marineandoffshoreindustriesareamongtheriskiest

�  TheseindustriesconSnuallyseekwaystoimprovesafetyandreduceaccidents

�  HighaccidentratesinmarineandoffshoreoperaSons§  Inherentlyrisky

§  Systemsincreasinglycomplex

�  SeveralareasrequireaienSon§  MulSplealarmsonoffshoreinstallaSons

§  CruiseshipsintheArcSc

§  Etc.


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EngineeringSimulaSon

�  Rapidincreaseinuseofcomputer-basedsimulaSonforengineeringanalysis§  Structuralfiniteelementanalysiswellestablished

§  ComputaSonalfluidmechanicslessso

�  Designmethodologiesandacceptancecriteriaareevolvinglessrapidly

�  Someissues:§  ValidaSonofanalysismethodologies

§  Skillsofusers

§  UncertainSesinanalysis


Source:VikingSystems,Annapolis,USA

Source:hKps://ecfd.nlr.nl/scope/

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Propulsion

�  Dieselenginesdominatethemarinemarketbut..

�  LNGuseincreasingis§  Loweremissions

§  NeedforLNGbunkeringinfrastructure

�  UseofbiofuelsandsyntheScfuelsholdpromise

�  HybridsoluSonsairacSveinsomecircumstances§  Diesel/baiery


Source:FutureShipPoweringOpPons,RoyalAcademyofEngineeringReport,2013

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AssetIntegrityManagement-Agingplacorms

�  Theproblem§  NoappeSteforexpensivenewplamorms

§  Interestinextendinglifeoffields

�  Challenge§  Establishingstateofasset

−  Sensors

−  Bigdata:extracSngmeaningfulinformaSon

−  IntegraSngmeasurements

§  Cost-effecSveinspecSonandrepairstrategies

§  Assessmentmethodologies–risk-basedmethods


Source:BentleySystemsInfographiconStructuralIntegrity,2016

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Aquaculture-Offshorefishfarming

�  Advantagesoverclose-to--shorefarming§  Exposedtosteadycurrents

§  Reduceddiseases

§  Smallerenvironmentalimpactduetoachangingcolumnofwateraroundthecages

§  Fewerspaceconstraints

§  LowoperaSngcostsbecauseofhighautomaSon(buthigherCAPEX)


Source:SalMarGroup,Norway

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NavalTechnology

�  AjointteamofLloydsRegister,QineSQandtheUniversityofSouthamptonidenSfiedseveraltechnologiesrelevantfornavalplamorms:§  BigdataanalyScs

§  Advancedmaterials

§  Autonomoussystems

§  Advancedmanufacturing

§  Energymanagement

§  Cyberandelectronicwarfare

§  Human-computerinterface

§  HumanaugmentaSontechnologies


Source:LR/QinePQ/UofSouthampton,GlobalMarineTechnologyTrends2030,2015

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SeabedMining

�  Theseabedhasformanyyearsheldpromiseasasourceofenergyandminerals

�  Amongthemostpromising:§  Methanehydrates

§  SeafloorMassiveSulphides

§  PolymetallicNodules/ManganeseNodules

§  Cobalt-richCrusts

�  Variousschemesformining-ROVsandAUVs,pumps,risers

�  Primarychallengeiscost-effecSverecovery

�  Severalpilotschemesunderway32 RogerBasu&AssociatesInc.

Source:ScienPficAmerican

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FloaSngEnergyInfrastructure

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�  LargefloaSngsystemstosupportpowerstaSons

�  Canberelocated

�  GraphicshowsRussianconceptforfloaSngnuclearpowerstaSonintheArcSc

�  FLNGembodiessimilarelements

Source:RadioCanada23Apr2015;Graphic:Rosatom.ru


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MarineHabitaSon

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�  WhileconceptsformarinehabitaSonhaveexistedformanyyearsnolargescaleinstallaSonshavebeenbuilt

�  WithpopulaSonpressuresandclimatechange(risingsealevels)mighttheconceptsgobeyondthethinkingphase?

Source:De

zeenm

agazine,13May201

4


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ConcludingRemarks

�  ChallengingSmesformarine&offshoreindustry§  Lowgrowth,lowoilprices

§  UncertainSes

§  Oversupplyinsomesectors

�  OpportuniSesforresearchespeciallyifsoluSon-focused§  Reducingcosts

§  Regulatorychanges

§  ImplemenSngnewtechnologies


Documents

Survey of Marine/Offshore Trendscismart.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2-Marine-Offshore... · 2016-07-13 · Propulsion Diesel engines dominate the marine market but .. LNG use increasing