UN RÔLE POUR LE TÉLESCOPE THEMISDANS LA PRÉVISION

DES ÉJECTIONS DE MATIÈRE

Véronique BOMMIERLERMA, Observatoire de Meudon

V.Bommier@obspm.fr01 45 07 79 48

PNST, Observatoire de Paris15 janvier 2008

Éjection d'une protubérance18 août 1980

QuickTime™ et undécompresseur TIFF (non compressé)

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http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Scale Descriptor Geomagnetic Storms

G5 Extreme Power systems: widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage. Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites. Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.)**.

4 per cycle (4 days per cycle)

1 day every 3 years

G1 Minor Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible. Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels; aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)**.

1700 per cycle (900 days per cycle)

2 days per week

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Scale Descriptor Solar Radiation (MeV Particules (ions)) Storms

S5 Extreme Biological: unavoidable high radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity); passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.*** Satellite operations: satellites may be rendered useless, memory impacts can cause loss of control, may cause serious noise in image data, star-trackers may be unable to locate sources; permanent damage to solar panels possible. Other systems: complete blackout of HF (high frequency) communications possible through the polar regions, and position errors make navigation operations extremely difficult.

Fewer than 1 per cycle

S1 Minor Biological: none. Satellite operations: none. Other systems: minor impacts on HF radio in the polar regions.

50 per cycle 1 every 2-3 month

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Scale Descriptor Radio Blackouts

R5 Extreme HF Radio: Complete HF (high frequency**) radio blackout on the entire sunlit side of the Earth lasting for a number of hours. This results in no HF radio contact with mariners and en route aviators in this sector. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals used by maritime and general aviation systems experience outages on the sunlit side of the Earth for many hours, causing loss in positioning. Increased satellite navigation errors in positioning for several hours on the sunlit side of Earth, which may spread into the night side.

Less than 1 per cycle

R1 Minor HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals.

2000 per cycle (950 days per cycle)

2 days per week

– la météo spatiale: du soleil à la terre

– la météo: une carte + un code

Les cartesde champ magnétique vectoriel

à la surface du soleil:

THEMIS

Observationspolarimetric

analysisI,Q,U,V

inversionB,,

2 components atmosphere

Observationspolarimetric

analysisI,Q,U,V

inversionB,,

2 components atmosphere

UNNOFITLandolfi, M., Landi Degl'Innocenti, E., Arena, P., 1984, Solar Physics 93, 269

• Unno-Rachkowsky analytical solution in a Milne-Eddington atmosphere• Marquardt algorithm to reach the minimum 2 (Harvey et al., 1972, Auer et al., 1977)

• Magneto-optical and damping effects (Landolfi & Landi Degl'Innocenti, 1982)

Vector Magnetic Fieldmaps

– THEMIS observations– UNNOFIT inversion

– first map: 7 December 2003, published (Bommier et al., 2007, A&A 464, 323, also UNNOFIT reference)

– 191 vector maps now visible on the web– 155 in the BASS2000 data basis (2004-2007) (15 are bursts on an AR, 108 are multiline 6302/5250, + PCA inversion in the 6301 line) – 36 in the V. Bommier personal page (2005-2006) (28 in common with BASS2000, but including band assembling for large maps (up to 6x4 arcmin) and anamorphosis correction, 2 are multiline 6301/6302/5250, 1 is multiline 6301/6302/5250/6103)– all obtained in THEMIS/MTR-basic mode

– in addition, 53 inverted maps are not yet on the web (2005-2008) (V. Bommier, P. Mein, S. Gosain, G. Yang, ...)

– inversion of THEMIS/MTR-basic, THEMIS/MTR-grid and THEMIS/MSDP maps– targets:

– sunspots– active regions– filaments and filament channels– quiet sun

– our last campaign in November 2007 (10 days, 30 maps at BASS2000) unfortunately lacks of solar activity

13 September 2005, Delta-Spot, NOAA 10808, courtesy V.Bommier

UNNOFITLandolfi, M., Landi Degl'Innocenti, E., Arena, P., 1984, Solar Physics 93, 269

• Unno-Rachkowsky analytical solution in a Milne-Eddington atmosphere• Marquardt algorithm to reach the minimum 2 (Harvey et al., 1972, Auer et al., 1977)

• Magneto-optical and damping effects (Landolfi & Landi Degl'Innocenti, 1982)

• + magnetic filling factor (Bommier et al., 2007)

in the visible wavelength range, for solar surface typical field strengths,the magnetic filling factor and the magnetic field strength B effects cannot be separated in Stokes V only their product B (the "local average magnetic field strength") can be determined

0

1 104

2 104

3 104

4 104

5 104

6 104

-160-140-120-100-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Magnetic field strength * filling factor

Count

B (Gauss)

0

1 104

2 104

3 104

4 104

5 104

6 104

-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Magnetic field line-of-sight inclination

Count

ψ (degree)

0

1 104

2 104

3 104

4 104

5 104

-90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Magnetic field slit azimuth

Count

ϕ (degree)

(input)B >= 45GNETWORK

UNNOFIT inversion accuracyfrom input test values, noised at the THEMIS polarimetric accuracy level 1.5x10–3

EXTRAPOLATIONS of THEMIS magnetic field maps

– Potential field extrapolation: (from longitudinal magnetograms)

2002 Eibe et al. (2002), Aulanier (2002, MDI magnetogram + THEMIS H),Li et al. (2005), Li et al. (2006)

– Linear force free field extrapolation (from longitudinal magnetograms, often THEMIS inserted in MDI)

2004 Berlicki et al. (2004), Schmieder et al. (2006a,b), Schmieder et al. (2007)Dudik et al. (2008)

– Non-linear force free field extrapolation (from vector magnetograms, needs the ambiguity solution)

2008 Li et al. (2007, THEMIS longitudinal + HUAIROU vector), Canou et al. (stage M2 2008; 2009, submitted)

THEMIS pixel: 0.5 arcsec up to 2007, 0.2 arcsec since 2007 (new cameras)

NLFFF EXTRAPOLATION :Evidence of a Twisted Flux Rope

in a pre-eruptive structurefrom Canou, A., Amari, T., Bommier, V., Schmieder, B., Aulanier , G., & Li, H.: 2009, ApJL (submitted)

(code: XTRAPOL, Amari et al., 2006)

AR 10808, THEMIS vector magnetic field map(with solved ambiguity)

The Twisted Flux Rope (TFR)

... et le pas de temps

courtesy T. Amari, thèse A. Canou(code: METEOSOL, Amari, 1996)

Eruption of the Twisted Flux Rope (TFR)

– échéance THEMIS le 25 mai 2009. Renouvellement pas acquis

Projet:– les codes sont prêts– passer à une phase d'exploitation– développer les observations et les extrapolations systématiques– en vue de roder le moteur de prévision– travail "en amont" de la prévision proprement dite

– appel à idées pour la structuration de ce projet