• The Carter Ad~ini~trationand the~'~Arcof Crisis":- Iran, Afghanistan and the'Cold War in SOllthwest Asia, 1977-1981
Table of Contents
DOCUMENTS
<ic9.76
Report, CIA Human Resources Committee, "FOCUS Iran: An ~ntdHge1ice Community RevleVvofReporting by Human Resources from the United" .... States Mission iidran," November 4, 1976
2. Report, CIA Human Resources Comniittee, "FOCUS Iran: Part II: Action Review," De.cember 27, 1976 .
1977
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3. Memorandum, State Department, Stephen Palmer to various :addressees at State, "NSSM 239" ["U.S. Security Policy toward the Persian Gulf'], January 25, 1977
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4. Report, State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research, "The Future of Iran: Implications for the US," January 28, 1977
5. Briefing Paper, State Department, "The Secretary's Meeting withthe Shah'of - Iran," May 13, 1977 '.
6. Letter, EdWard Little to William S1.JUivan;'[transmitting"Guidanc.:e: Iran," .. list of items ofnational intelligenceinterest'fortheEmbassy]~fMay'11~"19'r7'''~'';t''':,· ,r.'.~
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1978
8. Telegram, 'William Sullivan to State Dep~ent, "Go~ls tfud:6bjective~¥&i" ~ Iran," January 10, 1978 .
9. .,' • ., ;'Ci", --.·?~f:-.~.",., .: "'~ " .:'.: ~:~ .. _~ ',. i:':~ .. ,'_ _ :~""',~'_~_ .
Analysis, State Department Bureau of Int~Uig~Jlceand 'Rts~h,;"ltari:1mf};~:~-:: Dissidence on the Increase," January 29, 1978' .- -. -" - <:'. - . .. . .
10. Airgram, William Sullivan to State Department, "The Iranian Opposition," .'.February 1, 1978
II. Cable, American Embassy Tehran to State Department, "Iran: Understanding the Shi'ite Islamic Movement," February 3, 1978
12. Intelligence Appraisal, Defense Intelligence Agency, "Iran: Religious- Inspired Opposition," March 29, 1978
13. Telegram, William Sullivan to Warren Christopher, "GOI Discouragement of Dissident Political Action," April 25, 1978
14. Article, CIA, "Iran: Increase in Religious Dissidence," June 1978
15. Letter, Charles Naas to Henry Precht, June 6, 1978
16. Airgram, Charles Naas to State Department, "Uncertain Political Mood: Religious, Developments, Tougher Royal Line on Demonstrators," August 1, 1978
17. Memorandum, John Stempel to William Sullivan, "While You Were Away ... ," August 22, 1978
18. Telegram, William Sullivan to Cyrus Vance and Zbigniew Brzezinski, .- "Recommendation for President to Shah Letter," August 29, 1978
19. Draft National Intelligence Estimate, "Iran NIE," September 1978
20. Report, Defense Intelligence Agency, "Assessment of the Political Situation in Iran," September 1978
2I. Memorandum, Warren Christopher to President Carter, [from "Evening Reading"], September 13, 1978
22. Telegram, William Sullivan to State Department, "Iran and the Shah: A Rocky Road Ahead," September 21, 1978
23. Letter, President Carter to the Shah, "Personal Note to the Shah," September 28, 1978
24. Memorandum, Director of Central Intelligence to Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment, "Meeting with Dr. Brzezinski, 27 October 1978," October 30, 1978
25. Telegram, American Embassy Tehran to State Department, "Looking Ahead: •Shifting Iranian Public Attitudes," October 31, 1978
• 26. Telegram, William Sullivan to State Department, "Looking Ahead: The Military Option," November 2, 1978
27. Memorandum, CIA National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia to Director of Central Intelligence, "p'RC Meeting on Iran, 6 November 1978," November 3, 1978
28. Memorandum, CIA Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment to Director of Central Intelligence, "Strategy for the Shah," November 6, 1978
29. Report, CIA, "Prospects for a Military Government," undated (early November 1978)
30. Cable, William Sullivan to State Department, "Thinking the Unthinkable," November 9, 1978
31. Memorandum, Samuel Hoskinson to Zbigniew Brzezinski, "Basic Questions on Iran to be Posed at SCC Meeting, November 20, 1978," November 20, 1978
32. Report, George Ball to President Carter, [with cover memo: "Summary
• Memorandum for President"], "Issues and Implications of the Iranian Crisis," December 12, 1978
33. Letter, Henry Precht to William Sullivan, December 19, 1978
34. Memorandum, Henry Precht to Harold Saunders, "Seeking Stability in Iran," December 19, 1978
35. Letter, William ~ullivan to John Golden, December 24, 1978
36. Memorandum, Cyrus Vance to President Carter, excerpt from "Evening Reading," December 26, 1978
1979
37. Cable, American Embassy Tehran to State Department, "Cottam on Khomeini, Liberation Mo~ement (LMI) and National Front (INF)," January 2, 1979
38. National Intelligence Daily (excerpt), CIA, "Situation Report: Iran," January 6, 1979
• 39. Cable, American Embassy Tehran to State Department, "Meeting with Ayatollah Shariat-Madari," January 10, 1979
40. Telegram, William Sullivan Eyes Only for Cyrus Vance, "USG Policy •Guidance," January 10, 1979
41. Intelligence Memorandum, CIA National Foreign Assessment Center, "Iran: The Radicals in the Opposition," January 12, 1979
42. Cable, American Embassy Tehran to State Department, "Religious Organizer Seeks U.S. Support for Moderates," January 16, 1979
43. Memorandum, Robert Mantel to Henry Precht, "Contact with Sadegh Ghotbzadeh in November 1977," January 17, 1979
44. Telegram, William Sullivan to State Department, "Ghotbzadeh Visit to the U.S.," January 21, 1979
45. Report, State Department, "The Huyser Mission in Iran: January 4 to February 4, 1979," undated, circa February 1979
46. Telegram, State Department to William Sullivan, "Message for Ambassador Sullivan," February 18, 1979
47. Alert Memorandum, Stansfield Turner to National Security Council, "Iran," •March 1, 1979
48. Memorandum, from Zbigniew Brzezinski, "Consultative Security Framework for the Middle East," March 3, 1979
49. Cable, William Sullivan to State Department, "The Bazargan Government One Month Later and Prospects for the Future," March 17, 1979
50. Intelligence Memorandum, CIA National Foreign Assessment Center, "Iran's Ayatollahs," (excerpt), March 20, 1979
51. Cable, Charles Naas to State Department, "The Bazargan Government and the Future," April 11, 1979
52. Cable, Charles Naas to State Department, "Meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Yazdi," April 12, 1979
53. Cable, Charles Naas to State Department, "Looking Ahead: Part II: Current Situation~" April 25, 1979
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• 55. Memorandum, Gary Sick to David Newsom, "Meeting with Morteza Bazargan," May 29, 1979
56. Intelligence Assessment, CIA, "Changes in the Middle East: Moscow's Perceptions and Options," (excerpt), June 1979
57. Telegram, State Department to Charles Naas, "USG-PGOI Relations," June 1, 1979
58. Telegram, Charles Naas to State Department, "USG-PGOI Relations," June 4, 1979
59. Cable, American Embassy Tehran to Stale Department, "Embassy Sources Dry Up," June 7, 1979
60. Cable, CIA, Tehran Station to Director, [Discussion with SDJanus/13 about U.S. Support for Kazem Shariatmadari], June 10, 1979
61. Cable, Defense Intelligence Agency, "Iran: Khomeini's Opposition," July 11, 1979
62. Cable, Bruce Laingen to State Department, "Military Sales to Iran," July 17,
• 1979:
63 .. Letter, Henry Precht to Bruce Laingen, July 20, 1979
64. Telegram, Bruce Laingen to Cyrus Vance, "Shahs' Desire to Reside in the U.S.," July 26, 1979
65. Report, U.K. Delegation to NATO, "Islamic Fundamentalism and the Soviet Union," July 30,_1979
66. Cable, CIA, from Director to Stockholm Station, [regarding setting up meeting with Abbas Amir-Entezam]," July 31, 1979
67. Cable, American Embassy Stockholm to State Department, "Conversation with Iranian Ambassador Amir Entezam," August I, 1979
68. Letter, Henry Precht to Bruce Laingen, [attaching "Planning for the Shah to Come to the United States"], August 2, 1979
69. Special Analysis, CIA, "Iran: Six Months After the Revolution," August 4, 1979
• 70. Cable, CIA, from Director to London Station, [regarding former military leaders' plot to overthrow Provisional Government ofIran], August 10, 1979
71. Cable, Bruce Laingen to State Department, "Meeting with PM Bazargan," •August 12, 1979
72. Cable, CIA, Tehran Station to Director, [on CIA briefing of Bazargan], August 23, 1979
73. Briefing Memorandum, Harold Saunders to Cyrus Vance, "Policy Towards Iran," September 5, 1979
74. Cable, CIA, from Tehran Station to regional Chiefs ofMission, "Military and Political Organizational Activity of the Qashqai Tribe (DOl: Early September 1979)," September 5, 1979
75. Memorandum, Thomas Thornton to Zbigniew Brzezinski, "Regional Cooperation re Afghanistan," September 24, 1979
76. Cable, Secretary of State's Delegation in New York to State Department and American Embassy Tehran, "Secretary's Meeting with Foreign Minister Yazdi," October 4, 1979
77. Cable, Secretary of State's Delegation in New York to State Department and American Embassy Tehran, "Assistant Secretary Saunder's Meeting with •Foreign Minister Yazdi," October 4, 1979
78. Cable, CIA, from Stockholm Station to Director, [meeting with Amir- Entezam], October 5, 1979
79. Cable, State Department to American Embassy Tehran, "Meeting with Fonmin Yazdi on Defense Issues," October 6, 1979
80. Cable, CIA, from Tehran Station to Director, [Rahmatollah Moghaddam- Maraghei suggests possible contact with Ayatollah Khomeini], October 10, 1979·
81. Cable, American Embassy Tehran to State Department, "Yazdi in New York: Where Now?" October 12, 1979
82. Cable, CIA, from Tehran Station to Director, [SpValid/1 discussions with Turkoman Tribal Leaders], October 16, 1979
83. Cable, American Embassy Tehran to State Department, "Shah's Illness," October 21, 1979
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85. Memorandum, Tehran Chiefof Station ("Donald Paquin") to Edward Ganin, "LWSURF - Official Informal," October 29, 1979
86. Memorandum, Paul Henze to Zbigniew Brzezinski, "Thoughts on Iran," November 9, 1979
87. Memorandum, Stuart Eizenstat to Hamilton Jordan, "Actions Toward Iran," November 9, 1979
88. Letter, Anatoly Dobrynin to President Carter, December 4, 1979
89. Memorandum, Zbigniew Brzezinski to Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of Treasury, December 5, 1979
90. Summary of Conclusions, Special Coordination Committee Meeting, "Iran," December 17, 1979
91. Memorandum, Zbigniew Brzezinski to President Carter, "Reflections on Soviet Intervention in Afghanistan," December 26, 1979
1980
92. Memorandum, Jerrold Schecter to Zbigniew Brzezinski, "SCC Working Group on Iran and Afghanistan: Public Posture," January 14, 1980
93. Summary of Conclusions, Special Coordination Committee Meeting, "SCC Meeting on Southwest Asia and the Persian Gulf," January 17, 1980
94. Memorandum of Conversation, State Department Iran Working Group, [conversation wi~ Sadegh Ghotbzadeh] , January 18, 1980
95. Memorandum, Hamilton Jordan to President Carter, [regarding domestic political strategy and the hostage crisis], January 22, 1980
96. Memorandum, Cyrus Vance to President Carter, "Iran--Alternative Negotiating Strategies," January 25, 1980
97. Memorandum, John Washburn to Henry Precht, "Conversation with [Excised]," January 27, 1980
98. Memorandum, Harold Saunders to Cyrus Vance, "Iran Update: January 28, 1980," January 28, 1980
99. Memorandum, CIA, [Excised] Assistant National Intelligence Officer for •USSR-EE to Director of Central Intelligence and Deputy Director, "A Soviet 'Best Case' for Military Intervention in Iran," February 19, 1980
100. Memorandum, Gary Sick to Zbigniew Brzezinski, "Iran," March 5, 1980
101. Summary of Conclusions, Special Coordination Committee Meeting, "IraniAfghanistan," March 6, 1980
102. Memorandum of Conversation, State Department Iran Working Group, [conversation between Sadegh Ghotbzadeh and Richard Cottam], March 11, 1980
103. Memorandum, Zbigniew Brzezinski to President Carter, "NSC Weekly Report #133," (excerpt), March 14, 1980
104. Special Coordination Committee Meeting, "IraniAfghanistan," (excerpts), March 20, 1980
105. Message, U.S. Government to Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, "Message to Be Delivered As Soon As Possible to Bani-Sadr," circa March 24, 1980
106. Memorandum, Zbigniew Brzezinski to President Carter, "NSC Weekly •Report #134," March 28, 1980
107. Memorandum, Paul Henze to Zbigniew Brzezinski, "Iran and the Soviets," April 11, 1980
108. Memorandum, Zbigniew Brzezinski to President Carter, "NSC Weekly Report #138," (excerpt), April 25, 1980
109. Analysis, State I:>epartment Bureau of Intelligence and Research, "Iran: Impact of the Tabas Raid," April 26, 1980
110. Report, State Department, "Diplomatic Strategy for Iran--The Period Ahead," May 6, 1980
111. Memorandum, Zbigniew Brzezinski to President Carter, "NSC Weekly Report #141," May 16, 1980
112. Intelligence Memorandum, CIA National Foreign Assessment Center, "Afghanistan: Iran's Role in the Crisis," July 1980
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114. Memorandum, CIA Southwest Asia Analytic Center, "Iran: The Revolution at a Crossroads," September 22, 1980
115. Memorandum, Zbigniew Brzezinski to President Carter, ''NSC Weekly Report #155," (excerpt), September 26, 1980
116. Memorandum, Zbigniew Brzezinski to President Carter, ''NSC Weekly Report #156," (excerpt), October 3, 1980
117. Draft Presidential DirectivelNSC, "Persian Gulf Security Framework," October 16, 1980
118. Memorandum for the Record, Stansfield Turner, "Conversation with Secretary Muskie, 30 October 1980," October 31, 1980
119. Alert Memorandum, Stansfield Turner to National Security Council, "Iran­ Iraq and Danger of a Wider War," November 14, 1980
120. Special National Intelligence Estimate, DCI, "Soviet Interests, Policies, and Prospects With Respect to the Iran-Iraq War," December 24, 1980
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The Carter Administration and the "Arc of Crisis": Iran, Afghanistan and the Cold War in Southwest Asia, 1977-1981
Brief Chronology of Events
1977
January 20,1977 - Jimmy Carter is inaugurated president of the United States.
March 21,1977 -- On the 50th anniversary of the Pahlavi dynasty, the Shah grants amnesty to 653 prisoners, one of several similar measures the monarch takes during this period.
May 13, 1977 -- Secretary of State Cyrus Vance visits Tehran for a CENTO conference and a meeting with the Shah.
May 13, 1977 - President Carter signs Presidential Directive 13 ordering a review ofall arms sales cases.
June 18, 1977 - William Sullivan presents his credentials to the Shah as U.S. ambassador. Opposition forces reportedly see Sullivan's appointment as a signal that the Carter administration will not press the Shah to liberalize.
August 1, 1977 - Iran withdraws its offer to purchase AWACS from the United States due to congressional opposition. Vance warns the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that any delay in the sale would be a grave mistake. President Carter reaffirms his support for the sale in early September.
August 6,1977 - Prime Minister Abbas Hoveyda resigns after 12 years in office. The Shah replaces him the next day with Jamshid Amouzegar.
September 23-27,1977 -- President Carter holds meetings with Andrei Gromyko to revive the SALT process, an issue that occupies much of the administration's efforts over the next two years.
October 1977 -- Students in Tehran call for Ayatollah Khomeini's returnfrom exile.
November 7,1977 - Vance announces President Carter's decision to postpone his trip to Iran.
November 15 -16, 1977 - The Shah visits the United States, triggering protests in both countries.
December 31, 1977 -- President Carter arrives in Tehran for an official visit of less than 24 hours. At a state dinner, Carter calls Iran "an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world."
1978
January 8-9, 1978 - Police open fire on a crowd of seminary students demonstrating in Qom. Following the incident, the Tehran Embassy tries to establish regular contact with opposition religious figures and bazaar merchants to improve intelligence.
February 18-19, 1978 - Anti-governm~nt demonstrations take place in several major cities commemorating those killed in Qom. In Tabriz, serious violence breaks out.
April 16, 1978 - In an interview with The Times ofLondon, the Shah states that torture is no longer practiced in Iran and that recent disturbances are the work of small groups of "ignorant people."
April 26, 1978 - Ronald Reagan, George Bush, and Margaret Thatcher visit Iran.
April 27, 1978 -- The Saur Revolution in Afghanistan results in the overthrow of Mohammad Daud at the hands of the Soviet-backed PDPA.
May 1978 -- A variety of serious disturbances take place this month in cities across Iran. At one point, the Shah announces that despite the unrest, which he blames on National Front supporters, he will proceed with political liberalization.
May 6, 1978 - In an interview in Le Monde, Khomeini rejects the Shah's charge of an alliance between religious conservatives and Marxists.
June 6,1978-- General Nasser Moghaddam replaces General NematollahNassiri as head of SAVAK.
July 3, 1978 - The Shah issues a private "Code of Conduct" for the royal family barring them from profiteering in business deals.
July 5,1978 -- A Policy Review Committee meeting, chaired by Vance, is held to resolve'disagreements within the administration about U.S. arms sales policy toward Irart: The meeting results in the decision, later reversed, to sell Iran 31 F-4E aircraft cl;lpable of installing radiation suppression equipment, among other military items.
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July 26,1978 -- Charles Naas reports a rash of recent rumors concerning the Shah's health. He says the monarch appears "a little tired, but otherwise fine," and that Naas will monitor the situation.
July 27,1978 -- Khomeini issues a proclamation claiming exclusive leadership ofthe opposition movement for the Islamic clergy.
August 1978 -- A CIA study, entitled "Iran after the Shah," concludes that "Iran is not in a revolutionary or even pre-revolutionary situation."
August 1, 1978 --A pipe bomb is thrown over the wall of the U.S. Consulate in Isfahan.
August 5,1978 - On the 72nd anniversary ofthe Constitution and the beginning of Ramadan, the Shah declares his intention to open the political system and further pursue his liberalization program.
August 15, 1978 -- Khomeini reportedly sends a message to Ayatollah Shariatmadari telling him to stop discussing the Constitution and Parliament since they should be replaced by Islamic institutions. Khomeini subsequently issues a proclamation calling on army troops not to shoot their brothers, but to oppose the government.
August 19, 1978 - An estimated 430 moviegoers die in an arson fire at the Rex Cinema in Abadan sparking anti-Shah riots. In the next few days, 29 movie theaters throughout the country are set ablaze.
August 22, 1978 -- Sullivan returns from a two-month vacation in United States.
August 27,1978 -- Jaafar Sharif-Emami replaces Amouzegar as prime minister.
c. September 1, 1978 -- Due to disagreements between CIA and INR, a draft National Intelligence Estimate on Iran is shelved.
September 3,1978 -- After Prime Minister Sharif-Emami presents his new program, Shariatmadari gives the new government three months to accede to opposition demands, while Khomeini denounces the new government and calls for the overthrow of the regime.
September 4,1978 -- 200,000 demonstrate in Tehran to mark the end ofRamadan.
September 5-19,1978 -- The Camp David summit takes place. The peace process stalls in late Fall, as the Iran crisis is unfolding.
September 6,1978 -- The government imposes a ban on all unauthorized rallies.
September 6,1978 -- Washington receives Iran's five-year plan for military purchases, reflecting no reduction of the Shah's military objectives despite stated Carter administration policy to cut back on arms sales.
September 8,1978 -- A major religious rally takes place in Jaleh Square, Tehran, the day after the government has declared martial law in several key cities. Government troops open fire on the crowd in the capital, killing scores.
September 10,1978 -- In the wake of the Jaleh Square shootings,the Shah tells Sullivan he will not abandon his liberalization program, nor will he abdicate. President Carter telephones the Shah to reaffirm U.S. support for his regime.
September 19, 1978 -- Sullivan reports that a number of Shah loyalists are beginning to explore political options and that some have approached the Embassy for assistance.
September 23,1978 -- Iraqi forces place Khomeini under house arrest in Najaf.
October 1,1978 -- In response to a call from the National Front, a nationWide, one-day work stoppage takes place.
October 6,1978 -- Khomeini flies from Baghdad to Paris.
October 10, 1978 -- President Carter issues a strong statement of support for the Shah during a Washington press conference.
October 14, 1978 -- The Sharif-Emami government announces major cuts in military and atomic energy spending.
October 19,1978 -- In a meeting with parliamentary leaders, the Shah indicates he will transfer power to the people through a new MajIis, a move made possible, he says, by his recent reforms. Public reaction is skeptical.
October 20,1978 -- Iran cancels an order for 70 F-14 fighter aircraft.
October 24,1978 -- Sullivan and Deputy Defense Secretary Charles Duncan meet with the Shah, who cuts the session short, and in the presence of Sullivan and British Ambassador Anthony Parsons discusses two options for restoring order: installing a military regime or forming a coalition government. The two envoys instead suggest bringing opposition politicians into the present government.
October 31,1978 -- President Carter meets briefly with Crown Prince Reza, restating his support for the Shah.
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November 5, 1978 - Tehran explodes in rioting a day after troops open fire on demonstrating students. The government responds by imposing martial law.
November 6,1978 - The Shah goes on television to announce a new military government. His speech is apologetic and conciliatory. Meanwhile, in Paris,…