Touré 2/9/2015
International finance 1
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Système financier international
La Balance des PaiementsII- Le Compte de Capital
ESC Sfax-Février 2015
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
La BDPBalance des paiements = relevé statistique annuel de toutes les
transactions de biens, services et capital entre résidents et non-
résidents.
La BDP est un concept de flux, recensant toutes les
transactions au travers des frontières géographiques d’un
espace national.
Bien que la comptabilité en partie double à laquelle la BDP est
soumise assure une égalité comptable des débits et crédits, en
pratique la ligne comptable « Erreurs et Omissions » incorpore
tout les résidus et imprécisions statistiques…
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Balance des Paiements
Compte de capital
– Reflects changes in country ownership of assets
– Reflects international market access
– External debt payments, FDI and international
borrowing in the capital markets (Eurobonds,
Eurocredits, official financing, short-term flows…)
– From less liquid items to more liquid items!
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Touré 2/9/2015
International finance 2
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Les sources de financement extérieur
K Publics (bilatéral+multilatéral)
Club de Paris (bilatéral)
ACEs (Coface)
IFIs
BDRs
Réduction de dette
Capitaux Privés
IDE
Portefeuille
Capitaux CT/LT
Club Londres
Lignes commerciales à CT
Emissions obligataires
Arriérés
Rééchelonnements
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
D’où viennent les flux de capitaux?
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Who finances whom?
Current account balances of OECD (34) and EMCs (160)
US$ billion
Source: IIF, IMF-WEO 2015 MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Epargne nette= Exportateurs de capitaux
Source: IMF 2013
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International finance 3
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Importateurs nets de Capitaux
Source: IMF 2013
Flux de capitaux privés vers les pays émergents (nets)
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Flux
nets
vers les
pays émergents
IIF 2014 MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Flux de capitaux privés = source de financement-
clé des pays émergents
Source: IIF-2009
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International finance 4
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Flux de IDE et de Portefeuille vers les PVD
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Equity
ASIA
Latin America
US$ milliards
Source: IMF/IIF 2014 MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
1. Direct investment and portfolio investment
The difference between direct investment and portfolio investment
resolves around whether or not the investor intends to take an
active role in the management of the enterprise whose assets are
being acquired.
When the investor’s purpose is to have an effective voice in the
management of the foreign enterprise, it is considered as a direct
investment. Examples:
Bonds, debentures and the like are portfolio investments in so far
as they confer no management or voting rights on their owners (ST
and relatively volatile investment)
Foreign branches, wholly owned subsidiaries and joint ventures
are clearly direct investments (depending on percentage!)
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
What is FDI?
Foreign direct investment = purchase of real assets abroad for the purpose of acquiring a lasting interest in an enterprise and exerting a degree of influence on that enterprise’s operations.
Greenfield investment: new investment in a physical structure in an area where no corporate facilities previously existed (complete ownership and therefore full control over management)
Strategic partnerships: formal alliance (joint venture, licensing agreement, distributorship, or agency contract) between two enterprises, with mutual participation in certain activities (advertising, branding, product development, etc.).
Mergers and acquisitions: two or more companies decide to pool their assets to form a single new company. Hence, one of the previously existing companies ceases to exist. An acquisition does not necessarily constitute a merger if the preexisting companies continue to exist.
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015Source: US GAO 02/2008
Touré 2/9/2015
International finance 5
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Flux d’investissement directs étrangers in % of total volume
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
USA UK China/HK France Netherlands Canada Germany Belgium Spain Russia
Source: CNUCED Total= $1500 milliards
Tunisie: compte courant et IDE
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA ESC SFAX(c) 2015FMI-2014
-10
-5
0
5
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Balance courante/PIB %
Flux nets de IDE/PIB %
Tunisie-Balance des Paiements 1990-2015
Tunisie- Flux d’investissement IDE et Portefeuille $ million - source: FMI
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Flux d’investissements directs étrangers
Maroc-Tunisie 1970-2015 en millions de $
Michel Henry Bouchet Skema/DEFI 2015
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Maroc
Tunisie
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International finance 6
OECD
(46%)
EMCs
(54%) ASIA
(53%)LATIN
AMERICA
(30%)
EMCs
LATIN AMERICA
MEXICO
(32%)
CHILE
(10%)
PERU
(4%)
ASIA
GLOBAL FDI FLOWS= $1200 BILLION/year
Source: OECD, UNCTAD
CHINA
70%
MH BOUCHET SKEMA 2014 (c) MH BOUCHET SKEMA 2014 (c)
Les IDE en Chine IN= 4% of GDP, OUT= 1% GDPUS$ milliards
OECD & WBGDI
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Foreign Exchange:
The largest component of total international liquidity. It includes monetary authorities’ claims on non-residents in the form of bank deposits, treasury bills, short-term and long-term government securities, and other claims usable in the event of balance of payments need, including non-marketable claims from inter-central bank and intergovernmental arrangements, without regard as to whether the claim is denominated in the currency of the debtors or the creditors.
A + sign in the BOP means a financing item in the capital account, I.e., a decrease in the stock of reserves!
MH BOUCHET SKEMA 2014 (c)
25 years of China’s rising official
reserve assetsUS$4000 billion
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International finance 7
CHINA = > 1/5 OF FOREIGN HOLDING OF US DEBT
US Treasury 08/2014
21%
20%
6%4%4%
3%3%
3%
2%
33%
China
Japan
Belgium
OPEC
Brazil
Taiwan
Switzerland
UK
Russia
Other
$1300 billion
MH BOUCHET SKEMA 2014 (c)
Déficit croissant de balance des paiements, fuite des
capitaux et chute des réserves de change
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
8,5
9
9,5
10
10,5
11
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TUNISIE: Réserves internationales de changemois d’importUS$ milliards
Janvier 2014= $7,4 milliards
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
4. Contreparties: ajustements comptables de fin d’année
Counterparts items are analogous to unrequited
transfers in the current account. They arise because
of the double entry system in balance of payments
accounting and refer to adjustments in reserves
owing to monetization of gold, allocation or
cancellation of SDRs and revaluation of the various
components of total reserves. These BOP items do
not stem from international transactions.
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
5. Erreurs et Omissions
The errors and omissions in balance of payments accounting arise in large part from the statistical difficulties involved in gathering balance of payments data (and capital flight!).
Should monetary authorities not have the necessary information to make the double entries, they would thus make single entries based on the information available to them.
Other sources of E&Os: leads and lags in trade flows, underinvoicing of exports and overinvoicing of imports, undeclared short-term capital movements…
Touré 2/9/2015
International finance 8
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Net errors and omissions ?
An examination of the size and direction of NE&Os may shed some light on the accuracy of BoP estimates. The adoption of the double entry accounting system means that the net sum of all credit and debit entries should equal zero.
In practice, any discrepancies are recorded in NE&Os, reflecting the net effect of differences in coverage, timing and valuation. An amount > 5% of the gross sum of merchandise exports and imports is a source of concern!
MH BOUCHET SKEMA 2014 (c)
Russia: Net Errors & Omissions US$ billion
Source: IMF-IFS/IIF
Capital Flight in Russia (1994-2012)
MH BOUCHET SKEMA 2014 (c)Source: BIS
E&Os de la Tunisie 1977-2008
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Tunisia-Net E&Os 1977-2008 in $ million
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International finance 9
Tunisie-Dépôts expatriés dans les banques
internationales
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Q4
19
77
Q4
19
78
Q4
19
79
Q4
19
80
Q4
19
81
Q4
19
82
Q4
19
83
Q4
19
84
Q4
19
85
Q4
19
86
Q4
19
87
Q4
19
88
Q4
19
89
Q4
19
90
Q4
19
91
Q4
19
92
Q4
19
93
Q4
19
94
Q4
19
95
Q4
19
96
Q4
19
97
Q4
19
98
Q4
19
99
Q4
20
00
Q4
20
01
Q4
20
02
Q4
20
03
Q4
20
04
Q4
20
05
Q4
20
06
Q4
20
07
Q4
20
08
Exchange -rate adjusted outflows of expatriated private savings 1977-2009 $ millions
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
6. Le financement « exceptionnel »
IMF Drawings
World Bank’s HIPC Initiative
London Club debt reduction and
restructuring workouts
Paris Club debt relief
Debt swap transactions
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
+ Export of goods f.o.b.
- Imports of goods f.o.b.
= Trade balance
+/- Exports/Imports of non-financial services
+ /- Investment income/expenditures (credit/debit)
+ (-) Private/Official unrequited transfers
= Current account balance
+/- FDI
+/- Portfolio capital Flows
+ LT Capital Inflows
- Debt Servicing Payments
+/- ST Capital Flows
Reserve Variation
Analyse de la Balance des paiements
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
Balance des paiements et analyse
d’endettement extérieur
Risque de Liquidité
Ratio de service de la dette
(P+I/X)
Ratio de service d’intérêt
(I/X)
Balance courante/PIB
Ratio Réserves/Import
Ratio Import/PIB
∆ Exports/ Taux d’intérêt
Risque de Solvabilité
Ratio Dette/Exportations
Ratio Dette/PIB
Ratio Dette CT/Réserves
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International finance 10
Tunisie-Indicateur de Solvabilité
MH BOUCHET/SKEMA (c) 2015
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Endettement Extérieur /PIB %