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Samuele Furfari
Regards sur la nouvelle géopolitique de l’énergie
Samuele Furfari
Collège Belgique - Liège
5 décembre 2017
L’auteur s’exprime à titre personnel.
Toutes les données sont publiques
2/33
L'énergie est
incontournable
Situation globale
Pétrole et
gaz
Réalités dans
certains pays
La révolution
du gaz
Avenir ?
Energies fossiles
Qu'est-ce que l'énergie?
W = F x d W =∫𝑭. 𝒅𝒖
[1 Joule = 1 Newton x 1 meter]
F (Newton)
d (m)
Energie ≡ Travail
Energie primaire et énergie finale Energie finale
But some primary energy sources are also final energies (2/3 of natural gas for heating, firewood)
Energie primaire Pertes
Technologie
Politique & numérisation Geopolitique
5/
Demande d'énergie primaire dans le monde
5%/a
6/
Demande d'énergie primaire dans l'UE
SAMUELE FURFARI 7
La dure réalité de la pauvreté énergétique
Photo : Orlando Furfari, 2012
8/
L'espérance de vie dépend de la quantité d'énergie consommée
9/
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
2000 2015 2016 2025 2030 2035 2040
Mto
e
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other renewables
22%
28% 25%
6%
3%
10%
6%
2040
Demande mondiale d'énergie primaire
Source: WEO 2017, IEA, World: New Policies Scenario
(results likely to stem from the implementation of announced policy intentions)
10/
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sep 2002 Jun 2003 Apr 2004 Feb 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan 1990 Jun 1990 Nov 1990
Data of US EIA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jun 2014 Apr 2015 Feb 2016 Dec 2016 Oct 2017
$/b
11/
1974 +40 = La fin de la quarantaine…
De plus en plus
de pétrole
conventionnel
De plus en plus de
gaz conventio
nnel
Gaz de roche mère
Pétrole de
roche mère
UNCLOS
Technologie
12/
Convention des Nations Unies sur le droit de la mer
UNCLOS
Montego Bay, 1982
Entered into force
in 1994
Vol 1 Fig 4-19
13/
La nouvelle Europe
http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7292/10134658063_fca4fc3da2_o.jpg
Vol 1 Fig 4-20 (similar)
The oil and gas field of Norway
Samuele Furfari 14
V2 Fig 4-6
Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global with a market value estimated at 1 000 billion euros in Sept 2017
15/
Réserves de pétrole x 4 en 50 ans
Life index: Number of years at current rate of consumption 1973: 27 y - 55 Mb/d 2015: 51 y - 95 Mb/d Good management
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Gb
Middle East Rest of the world
BP data
52%
48%
0
20
40
60
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
R/P
(ye
ars)
Oil R/P ratio in World Years
Vol 1 Fig 4-12
Vol 1 Fig 4-14
Vol 1 Tab 4-5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Tm
³
Réserves de gaz naturel
72
188
+5%/y
17/
Technological progress in prospection & drilling
6 miles6 miles10 km
Horizontal and directional drilling
18/
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014
b/d
.rig
Oil rig productivity
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus
Niobrara permian Utica
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014
Mm
³/d
.rig
Gas rig productivity
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus
Niobrara permian Utica
Vol 1 Fig 7-3
19/
Shale oil wellhead breakeven cost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2014 2015 2016
$/b
Permian Midlant Permian Delaware Niobrara
Eagle Ford BakkenSource: http://www.rystadenergy.com/NewsEvents/PressReleases/shale-well-breakeven
50$/b-35$/b= 15$/b 15$/b x 6 Mb/j = 90 M$/j ou 33 milliards $/a
20/
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960 1980 2000 2020M
b/d
Production Consumption
North America oil production and consumption
Vol 2 Fig 9-13 Vol 2 Fig 9-14
Vol 2 Fig 9-17
Vol 2 Point 8.1.3
21/
"Fifteen years ago, they told us we found all the oil and gas there was to find and that the days of being able to develop oil and gas were over with," Perry said. "Well, that's not the case. So does it make sense to sit down with our colleagues in Canada and Mexico to renegotiate a new North America Free Trade Agreement? Yes, I think it does."
22/
The United States is switching already to become a net gas exporter, and is projected to become a net oil exporter in the late 2020s
Source : WEO 20147, IEA
23/
Asia want to diversify OPEC oil
The Bureau of Energy Resources
To manage the
geopolitics of today’s
energy economy
through reinvigorated
energy diplomacy with
major producers and
consumers.
Energy Diplomacy in the 21st Century"
• Secretary Hillary Clinton's : Georgetown
University, 18 Oct. 2012 • remains the position of the Obama II
Administration
"The United States has an interest in resolving disputes over energy, keeping energy supplies and markets stable through all manner of global crises, ensuring that countries don’t use their energy resources or proximity to shipping routes to force others to bend to their will or forgive their bad behavior, and above all, making sure that the American people’s access to energy is secure, reliable, affordable, and sustainable."
The Bureau of Energy Resources
The Bureau of Energy Resources (ENR) leads the Department of State's efforts to forge international energy
policy, strengthen U.S. and global energy security, and respond to energy challenges
from around the world that affect U.S. economic policy and national security.
ENR promotes U.S. interests globally on critical issues such as: ensuring economic and energy security
for the U.S. and our allies and partners; removing barriers to energy development and trade;
and promoting U.S. best practices regarding transparency and good governance.
• Energy Security – we strengthen U.S. and global energy security and
prosperity
• Energy Policy – we promote an “all of the above” energy strategy focusing
on secure, stable, diversified, and modern global energy systems.
• Energy Market Initiatives – we promote American prosperity by facilitating
open, fair, and competitive markets abroad.
The Trump Administration… • Is committed to energy policies that lower costs for hardworking
Americans and maximize the use of American resources,
freeing us from dependence on foreign oil.
• Is committed to eliminating harmful and unnecessary policies
such as the Climate Action Plan
• will embrace the shale oil and gas revolution.
• is also committed to clean coal technology, and to reviving
America’s coal industry
• is committed to achieving energy independence from the
OPEC cartel and any nations hostile to our interests.
• our need for energy must go hand-in-hand with responsible
stewardship of the environment. President Trump will refocus
the EPA on its essential mission of protecting our air and water.
• A brighter future depends on energy policies that stimulate
our economy, ensure our security, and protect our health.
Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/america-first-energy
Samuele Furfari 28
Venezuela
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Iran
Iraq
Russian Federation
Kuwait
Libya
US
Nigeria
RoW
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Gb
Oil reserves
Qui possède le plus de réserves de pétrole?
29/
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Mb
/d
Production Exports
30/
Posted on November 27, 2017
31/
Conséquences de la révolution islamique en Iran
1/2/1979
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mb
/d
Iran oil production
Production Consumption Export
Qui possède
9 % des réserves de brut du monde
18% des réserves de gaz naturel
et a besoin de centrales nucléaires ?
32/
65
33/
Please, come back to
Iran. We will change our
buy-back contract's type
Davos, 23/1/2014
34/
Results of the 1st call for tender in Iraq after 30 years in 2009
Field Bidders Origin of bidders
Mb/d Prospective
Tender submitted
( $/b)
Negotiated price ( $/b)
Rumaila BP China National Petroleum Co. (CNPC)
UK Chine 2,85 4 2
West Qurna-1
Exxon Royal Dutch Shell
U.S.A. UK/NL 2,1 4 1,90
Lukoil ConocoPhillips
Russia USA 1,5 6,49 1,90
Zubair
ENI US Occidental Korea Gas Corp Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization
Italia U.S.A. Korea Iraq
1,1 4,80 2
Total 7,55
20 years technical service contracts
but possible extension to 25 years
35/
Oil production in SA, Iraq, Iran, Russia and USA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2005 2010 2015
Mto
e
Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia Russia U.S.A.
Soure: BP 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2005 2010 2015
Mto
e
Total 5 big Row
36/
Roi
Clergé Wahabite
Bureucratie Corruption
clans
Aramco
Vers la modernisation
59
years
37/
Vente de 5% de Aramco
The gas issue in EU
• Gaz conventionnel limité
Manque de gaz dans l'UE
• Fournisseurs conventionnels : Russie, Algérie, Norvège
Il faut importer • Pgas= a.Poil
• T or P
Notre problème
Gaz de roche-mère
Corridor Sud
GNL Rompre le monopole
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Norway Rovuma (M)
Tm³
La surprise de la Mer du Levant
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5Tm³
Connection of Aphrodite field to Vassilikos
Source: Directorate-General for Energy Miguel Arias Cañete with Youcef Yousfi, Algerian Minister for Energy (May 2015)
SAMUELE FURFARI 42
SAMUELE FURFARI 43
SAMUELE FURFARI 44
Poland’s PGNiG inks 5-year deal with Centrica to buy US LNG Poland’s state-owned gas company PGNiG has signed a five-year contract with British utility
Centrica to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) sourced from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass liquefaction plant
in the US. The LNG will be delivered on a DES (delivered ex-ship) basis and the supplies will start
in 2018.
Posted on November 22, 2017
U.S.A. Qatar Russie
Producteurs gaz de roche mère
Chenière Centrica PGNiG Consommateurs
polonais
Technologie
Le marché du gaz Géopolitique
Le marché du gaz
Technologie
Photo K.Fedirka (FotoSkrydis)
FSRU Independence coming into the Port Gate in Klaipeda K.Fedirka (FotoSkrydis)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
€/M
Wh
Gas price in Lithuania
Klaipeda
LNG
terminal
GIPL
Baltic-connector
to Finland ESTONIA
LATVIA
BELARUS
UKRAINE
POLAND
LITHUANIA
Incukalns
gas storage
Russia LNG from Yamal
First cargo loading is
scheduled on 8 December
2017, at the Sabetta port
Caspian Sea USA/
Canada
Mag
hre
b
