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RECORD TYPE: FEDERL (NOTES MAIL)

CREATOR:.Phil Cooney (CN=Phil Cooney/OU=CEQ/O=EOP f CEO I I

CREATITON DATE/TME: 6-JUN-2002 13:04:51 .00

SUBJECT:: Key Quote6 on Climate -- 6/11/01 POTUS Speech and recent Climate Action Re

TO:Scott tc~lellan ( CN.=Scott McClellan/OU:=WHO/Ot=EOP~EOP [ WHOIREAD:- UNKNOW

TO:-Riohar4 l's Russell (CN=-Richard M. Rus~sell/[OU=:OSTP/O=EOP0LEOP t OSTPIIREAD: UWUOWN

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TO:Joel. D. Kaplan (CN~Joe1 D. Kaplan/0U=WHO/OE4OP(QEOP C WHOI

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TEXT:--- ------ ---- Forwarded by Phil Cooney/CEQ/EOP on 0'6/06/200201:11 P

Phil Cooney106/06/2002 01:.02:24 PMRecord Type: Record

TO: See the distribution list at the bottom of this message

cc:

Group, Attached is a KeyQuotes document,. setting out the Presidenit's June

lXstatesent last year and severa seetdqoes from the C imste6 Action

Reorot.~ Phil

Page 2 of 12

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Key Statements on Climate Change Science

PresidentRBus, Rose Garden Speech June 11,2001:

"Cocenratonof greenhouse, gases, especially C0, have increased substantially since thebeoginning of the industrial Revolution. And the Natoa Academy of Sciencbes indicate that theincreseisdueinlargepart to humanactivit."1

Quotes from the U.S. Climate Action Report 2002:

"One of fth weakest links in our knowlede is the connecio between globa and regionalpredictonbf climatepchange h ainlRsac oni' epnet h rsdn'reqesfr a review ofbcimnate chang policy specifically noted that funidamental scientificquestion rembain regadigthe specfics of regional and4local projections (NR 2001).Pre4dicing the potential impacts of climate change iscmpude y a~ lack Of udrtnigof

tesensitfivity of many environmental systems and resources -- both managed and unmanaged -

to climate change." (page, 6)

"~While current analyses are, unable to predict Wit confidence the timing, magnitude or regionaldistibuionof climhate change, the best sciientifi&nomto indicates that if greenouse ga

concntrtioscntiue o icrae, changes are likely to bocur ~The U.S. National RsearchConi has cautioned h~oweer, that "because there is considerable uncertaint incurren~t

understaning of how the climat system -varies naturaolly and reacts to emissions of grenhousegases0 and aerosols, current estimates Of the magnitud ofA0 fuur#wrnng should bereaddstentative and'subect to futue adustmeonts (eiter pwado downward)." Moreoer, there ispaerhp even greater uncrtinyregarding the socil envirnmenal and economicconsequences of change 'in climate." ("Th Science" box, page, 4)

"Greehouse gases are accumulating in Earth' atmosphere~ as the result of human activities,causing gobal mea surface temperature and subsurface ocean temperatr to rise. Whileth

chanes bsevedove the last severaldecades are due most likely to humni activities, wecannot rul out that some significant part is also a reflectionof ntura variadbilty." (page, 4).

"In its June 2001 reobrt, the Comnmittee on thes Science of Climat hne whichi was convenedby the National Research Council (NRC) f'the National Academy of'Scienes, concludedtat

"I~huma-indcedwarming and 4asscatdsea leve rise aeexpected to conitinue throgh the

understanding ofbhow limate varies naturally and will respond to proeed, butucranchanges ini the, emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol."(ae81

"These assessment studies recognize that definitive prediction of potential outcomes, is not yetfeasil as a result Of the wid range of possiibe~ future levels of greehoue gSo and aerosolemissions, the range of possible climatic responss to changes in atmosphri concentration, and

the ang ofpossibl environmental and socitaresponses." (pae 82),

"Because of these ranges and thi netiteand beca~use of uncrtinie prjcigpotentalimpacts it is impotan to nte* thatthis chape ca Potreen absolute probaiities of whatis

in the even tha the projecte cagsiclmtthtrebngosdrddooccur"(ae2

"Use of theseo mode results is not mean to impoly that they provide accuat predictin of thespeifi changs in climat tha will occur over thnx hunred years. Rather the model -are

conidre t prvie lasibe roecionio potetia changes for th 2St century.... Forsomet aspect of cliate the mode re~sulsdiffer For example some modesicudn the'Canadian mdl [used inhi Assessment projct more extensiv and frqet uh inthe

Unitd Stteswhl others, including thIalymdl[h te oe sdi hAssessment]do not.AsarslteCndamoesuessahteaddirSuhat

duigthe21st cenuy NwhithHalymdlsgetwa erndetrcoiins Wheresuch diffeeces arise, th primary moe scgenais povide& two plausible, but diffeen

altenatves. (pge,84)~