EDC - En appui aux exportations et investissements Canadiens au Moyen Orient

EDC - En appui aux exportations et

investissements Canadiens au Moyen Orient

Mars 2013

Agenda

Rôle d’EDC

Aperçu économique et politique des pays du Conseil de Coopération du Golfe

Rôle d’EDC

Appuyer et développer le commerce extérieur du Canada et ses efforts commerciaux sur la scène internationale

Offrir des solutions de financement et d’assurance aux exportateurs et aux investisseurs canadiens

Offrir des solutions de financement aux acheteurs étrangers qui achètent de bien et services canadien ou qui investisse au Canada.

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Aperçu économique et politique des pays du Conseil de Coopération du

Golfe

World Trade Centre Montréal

Presenté par:

John Bitzan, analyste des risques politiques, afrique et moyen orient,

Centre d’information économique et politique

March 14, 2013

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries

Common Attributes

Conservative societies

Governments have close ties with West

Little taxation = Little representation

Mostly dependent on energy exports

Employment: expats over-represented in private sector

Saudi Arabia – Political Overview

Political Structure Absolute monarchy

Strengths Deep pockets, (some) religious legitimacy

Saudi Arabia - Political Overview – Strengths: Deep Pockets

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Saudi Arabia: Budget Expenditure% Change (Annual Rate)

Source: EIU/Haver

salary bonuses,housing investment, etc.

Saudi Arabia – Political Overview

Political Structure Absolute monarchy

Strengths Deep pockets, (some) religious legitimacy

Weaknesses Aging leadership, alienated minority, socio-economic issues

Saudi Arabia – Political Overview – Weaknesses: Succession

Le roi Abd al-Aziz ibn Saud, m. 1953

Le prince héritier Sultan, m. 2011

Le prince héritier Nayef, m. 2012

Le prince héritier Salman (78 ans)

Le roi Fahd, m. 2005

Le roi Abdallah (89 ans)

Le prince Muqrin, 2ième vice-prémier, (68 ans)

Les fils d’ibn Saud – 2ième génération

Saudi Arabia – Economic Overview

Economic Structure

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

0

25

50

75

100

Main Exports (% of total trade)

Refined petro-leum productsCrude petro-leum

%

Source: EIU/Haver

Saudi Arabia – Economic Overview

Strengths Government finances, industrial investment, trade surpluses

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

20

40

60

80

Saudi Arabia: Public Debt as % of GDP

Source: EIU/Haver

Saudi Arabia – Economic Overview

Weaknesses Unemployment, spending trends

Source: Jadwa Investments, Paul Gamble, Saudi Arabia’s Coming Oil and Fiscal Challenge, July 2011

Saudi Arabia – Trade with Canada

Bahrain

Oman

Saudi Arabia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Canada: Exports to GCC Countries (2012)

Rest of CanadaQuébec

CAD Millions

Source: Industry Canada/StatsCan

United Arab Emirates – Political Overview

Political Structure Federation of Emirates

Strengths Popular legitimacy

Weaknesses Loose federation

UAE– Economic Overview

Structure

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

25

50

75

100

Main Exports (% of total)

Natural GasRe-ExportsCrude petroleum%

Source: EIU/Haver

UAE– Economic Overview

Structure

Strengths Government finances Diversified

Weaknesses Real estate, Dubai debt

UAE– Economic Overview

Weaknesses Real estate, Dubai debt

Source: National Bank of Abu Dhabi, Economic Research Dep’t

UAE– Economic Overview

Weaknesses Real estate, Dubai debt

Source: IMF, UAE Article IV, 2012

UAE – Trade with Canada

Bahrain

Oman

Saudi Arabia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Canada: Exports to GCC Countries (2012)

Rest of CanadaQuébec

CAD Millions

UAE – Trade with Canada

Did the UAE-Canada airline dispute affect trade?

UAE – Trade with Canada

Probably not…

Kuwait– Political Overview

Political Structure Monarchy balanced by parliament

Strengths Active parliament, relatively free press

Weaknesses Political paralysis, no progress on foreign investment

Kuwait – Economic Overview

Strengths High GDP per capita, massive oil reserves, fiscal surpluses

Kuwait – Economic Overview

Weaknesses Very oil dependent, government over-spending

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

25

50

75

100

Kuwait: Main Exports (% of total)

Oil & Oil Products%

Kuwait – Economic Overview

Weaknesses Very oil dependent, government over-spending

Kuwait – Trade with Canada

Bahrain

Oman

Saudi Arabia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Canada: Exports to GCC Countries (2012)

Rest of CanadaQuébec

CAD Millions

Bahrain – Political Overview

Political Structure Monarchy with weakened parliament

Weaknesses Unresolved tensions (post-2011), sectarian division

Bahrain – Economic Overview

Economic Structure

Strengths Relatively diversified, regional financial hub

Bahrain – Economic Overview

Weaknesses Diminishing oil reserves, high “break-even” oil price

Source: IMF, Article IV, UAE, 2011

Bahrain – Trade with Canada

Bahrain

Oman

Saudi Arabia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Canada: Exports to GCC Countries (2012)

Rest of CanadaQuébec

CAD Millions

Oman – Political Overview

Political Structure Absolute monarchy

Strengths Ruler popular

Weaknesses Succession, over-personalized rule, limited political reforms

Oman – Economic Overview

Economic Structure

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

25

50

75

100

Oman: Main Exports (% of total)

Liquid Natural GasRe-ExportsNon-OilCrude Oil%

Oman – Economic Overview

Economic Structure

Strengths Good economic policy record, fiscal surpluses

Weaknesses Low oil reserves, domestic gas shortage

Oman – Trade with Canada

Bahrain

Oman

Saudi Arabia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Canada: Exports to GCC Countries (2012)

Rest of CanadaQuébec

CAD Millions

Qatar– Political Overview

Political Structure Absolute monarchy

Strengths Population well-off and generally satisfied

Weaknesses Local resentment of expats

Qatar – Economic Overview

Economic Structure

Strengths Highest GDP per capita in world, world’s 3rd largest natural gas

reserves, biggest LNG exporter

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.0

Real GDP Growth Rate (%)

QatarGCC Overall (Average)

Qatar – Economic Overview

Weaknesses High spending, high external debt to GDP ratio (~75%)

 Screen clipping taken: 3/12/2013, 1:08 AM  

Qatar – Trade with Canada

Bahrain

Oman

Saudi Arabia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Canada: Exports to GCC Countries (2012)

Rest of CanadaQuébec

CAD Millions

Other Data: Ease of Doing Business Rankings (World Bank)

Country Ease of Doing Business Rank

Singapore 1

Hong Kong SAR, China 2New Zealand 3… …Saudi Arabia 22

United Arab Emirates 26Qatar 40Bahrain 42Oman 47Kuwait 82… …

Central African Republic 185

Personnes Ressources

Jean Francois Croft Représentant en chef, Moyen-Orient

Tel: (613) 597-7882 Fax: (613) 598-2503 Courriel: jcroft@edc.ca

Vicky BrouillardDirectrice régionale, Méditerranée orientale et Moyen-Orient

Tel: (613) 597-8696 Fax: (613) 598-2503 Courriel: vbrouillard@edc.ca

Kristien Buckingham Coordinatrice, Moyen-Orient – basé a Abu Dhabi

Tel: (613) 597-3359, Fax: (613) 598-2503Courriel: kbuckingham@edc.ca

John Bitzan Analyste des risques politiques, Afrique et Moyen-Orient

Tel: (613) 598-2713Courriel: jbitzan@edc.ca

41 www.edc.ca

Merci!

Questions?

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