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EDC - En appui aux exportations et investissements Canadiens au Moyen Orient. Mars 2013. Agenda. Rôle d’EDC Aperçu économique et politique des pays du Conseil de Coopération du Golfe. Rôle d’EDC. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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EDC - En appui aux exportations et
investissements Canadiens au Moyen Orient
Mars 2013
Agenda
Rôle d’EDC
Aperçu économique et politique des pays du Conseil de Coopération du Golfe
Rôle d’EDC
Appuyer et développer le commerce extérieur du Canada et ses efforts commerciaux sur la scène internationale
Offrir des solutions de financement et d’assurance aux exportateurs et aux investisseurs canadiens
Offrir des solutions de financement aux acheteurs étrangers qui achètent de bien et services canadien ou qui investisse au Canada.
3
4
Aperçu économique et politique des pays du Conseil de Coopération du
Golfe
World Trade Centre Montréal
Presenté par:
John Bitzan, analyste des risques politiques, afrique et moyen orient,
Centre d’information économique et politique
March 14, 2013
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries
Common Attributes
Conservative societies
Governments have close ties with West
Little taxation = Little representation
Mostly dependent on energy exports
Employment: expats over-represented in private sector
Saudi Arabia – Political Overview
Political Structure Absolute monarchy
Strengths Deep pockets, (some) religious legitimacy
Saudi Arabia - Political Overview – Strengths: Deep Pockets
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Saudi Arabia: Budget Expenditure% Change (Annual Rate)
Source: EIU/Haver
salary bonuses,housing investment, etc.
Saudi Arabia – Political Overview
Political Structure Absolute monarchy
Strengths Deep pockets, (some) religious legitimacy
Weaknesses Aging leadership, alienated minority, socio-economic issues
Saudi Arabia – Political Overview – Weaknesses: Succession
Le roi Abd al-Aziz ibn Saud, m. 1953
Le prince héritier Sultan, m. 2011
Le prince héritier Nayef, m. 2012
Le prince héritier Salman (78 ans)
Le roi Fahd, m. 2005
Le roi Abdallah (89 ans)
Le prince Muqrin, 2ième vice-prémier, (68 ans)
Les fils d’ibn Saud – 2ième génération
Saudi Arabia – Economic Overview
Economic Structure
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
0
25
50
75
100
Main Exports (% of total trade)
Refined petro-leum productsCrude petro-leum
%
Source: EIU/Haver
Saudi Arabia – Economic Overview
Strengths Government finances, industrial investment, trade surpluses
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
20
40
60
80
Saudi Arabia: Public Debt as % of GDP
Source: EIU/Haver
Saudi Arabia – Economic Overview
Weaknesses Unemployment, spending trends
Source: Jadwa Investments, Paul Gamble, Saudi Arabia’s Coming Oil and Fiscal Challenge, July 2011
Saudi Arabia – Trade with Canada
Bahrain
Oman
Saudi Arabia
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Canada: Exports to GCC Countries (2012)
Rest of CanadaQuébec
CAD Millions
Source: Industry Canada/StatsCan
United Arab Emirates – Political Overview
Political Structure Federation of Emirates
Strengths Popular legitimacy
Weaknesses Loose federation
UAE– Economic Overview
Structure
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
25
50
75
100
Main Exports (% of total)
Natural GasRe-ExportsCrude petroleum%
Source: EIU/Haver
UAE– Economic Overview
Structure
Strengths Government finances Diversified
Weaknesses Real estate, Dubai debt
UAE– Economic Overview
Weaknesses Real estate, Dubai debt
Source: National Bank of Abu Dhabi, Economic Research Dep’t
UAE– Economic Overview
Weaknesses Real estate, Dubai debt
Source: IMF, UAE Article IV, 2012
UAE – Trade with Canada
Bahrain
Oman
Saudi Arabia
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Canada: Exports to GCC Countries (2012)
Rest of CanadaQuébec
CAD Millions
UAE – Trade with Canada
Did the UAE-Canada airline dispute affect trade?
UAE – Trade with Canada
Probably not…
Kuwait– Political Overview
Political Structure Monarchy balanced by parliament
Strengths Active parliament, relatively free press
Weaknesses Political paralysis, no progress on foreign investment
Kuwait – Economic Overview
Strengths High GDP per capita, massive oil reserves, fiscal surpluses
Kuwait – Economic Overview
Weaknesses Very oil dependent, government over-spending
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
25
50
75
100
Kuwait: Main Exports (% of total)
Oil & Oil Products%
Kuwait – Economic Overview
Weaknesses Very oil dependent, government over-spending
Kuwait – Trade with Canada
Bahrain
Oman
Saudi Arabia
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Canada: Exports to GCC Countries (2012)
Rest of CanadaQuébec
CAD Millions
Bahrain – Political Overview
Political Structure Monarchy with weakened parliament
Weaknesses Unresolved tensions (post-2011), sectarian division
Bahrain – Economic Overview
Economic Structure
Strengths Relatively diversified, regional financial hub
Bahrain – Economic Overview
Weaknesses Diminishing oil reserves, high “break-even” oil price
Source: IMF, Article IV, UAE, 2011
Bahrain – Trade with Canada
Bahrain
Oman
Saudi Arabia
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Canada: Exports to GCC Countries (2012)
Rest of CanadaQuébec
CAD Millions
Oman – Political Overview
Political Structure Absolute monarchy
Strengths Ruler popular
Weaknesses Succession, over-personalized rule, limited political reforms
Oman – Economic Overview
Economic Structure
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
25
50
75
100
Oman: Main Exports (% of total)
Liquid Natural GasRe-ExportsNon-OilCrude Oil%
Oman – Economic Overview
Economic Structure
Strengths Good economic policy record, fiscal surpluses
Weaknesses Low oil reserves, domestic gas shortage
Oman – Trade with Canada
Bahrain
Oman
Saudi Arabia
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Canada: Exports to GCC Countries (2012)
Rest of CanadaQuébec
CAD Millions
Qatar– Political Overview
Political Structure Absolute monarchy
Strengths Population well-off and generally satisfied
Weaknesses Local resentment of expats
Qatar – Economic Overview
Economic Structure
Strengths Highest GDP per capita in world, world’s 3rd largest natural gas
reserves, biggest LNG exporter
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.0
Real GDP Growth Rate (%)
QatarGCC Overall (Average)
Qatar – Economic Overview
Weaknesses High spending, high external debt to GDP ratio (~75%)
Screen clipping taken: 3/12/2013, 1:08 AM
Qatar – Trade with Canada
Bahrain
Oman
Saudi Arabia
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Canada: Exports to GCC Countries (2012)
Rest of CanadaQuébec
CAD Millions
Other Data: Ease of Doing Business Rankings (World Bank)
Country Ease of Doing Business Rank
Singapore 1
Hong Kong SAR, China 2New Zealand 3… …Saudi Arabia 22
United Arab Emirates 26Qatar 40Bahrain 42Oman 47Kuwait 82… …
Central African Republic 185
Personnes Ressources
Jean Francois Croft Représentant en chef, Moyen-Orient
Tel: (613) 597-7882 Fax: (613) 598-2503 Courriel: [email protected]
Vicky BrouillardDirectrice régionale, Méditerranée orientale et Moyen-Orient
Tel: (613) 597-8696 Fax: (613) 598-2503 Courriel: [email protected]
Kristien Buckingham Coordinatrice, Moyen-Orient – basé a Abu Dhabi
Tel: (613) 597-3359, Fax: (613) 598-2503Courriel: [email protected]
John Bitzan Analyste des risques politiques, Afrique et Moyen-Orient
Tel: (613) 598-2713Courriel: [email protected]
41 www.edc.ca
Merci!
Questions?
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