8 novembre 2006 AFG Pic gazier 1 Le pic de la production mondiale de gaz naturel et ses impacts Pierre-René BAUQUIS Professeur Associé ENSPM (IFP School)

AFG Pic gazier 18 novembre 2006

Le pic de la production mondiale de gaz naturel et ses impacts

Pierre-René BAUQUIS

Professeur Associé ENSPM (IFP School)Professeur TPA (TOTAL Professeurs Associés)

Ancien Directeur Gaz Electricité Charbon du Groupe Total

ASSOCIATION FRANCAISE DU GAZ


PARTIE 1

RAPPEL : LA PROBLEMATIQUE DU PICDU PETROLE


Brief summary of past findings and views

• The only "publically available data" on oil reserves are the so called "proven reserves".

• Unfortunately, they are totally useless to study and predict "Peak Oil".

• The only "usable" concepts for "peak oil estimation", at oil basins levels, countries levels or world level are : Ultimate reserves concept Evolution of past exploration performances and

production curves (creaming curves) King Hubbert methodology (world applicability).


A few ‘peak oil’ websites

3w.peakoil.net3w.aspofrance.org3w.oilcrisis.com3w.peakoil.com

ASPO France members(June 2006):

Jean Laherrère (formerly Total)Pierre-René Bauquis (fy Total)Carlos Cramez (fy Total)Jean-Luc WingertXavier Chavannes (Paris VII) Jean-Marc Jancovici (fy Envt)Alain Perrodon (fy Elf)Paul Alba (fy Elf)Maurice Allègre (fy IFP)Jacques Varet (BRGM)Adolphe Nicolas (Montpellier Uni)Jean-Marie Bourdaire (ex Total)Bernard Rogeaux (EDF)

2000 – 2006 : a historical warning by ASPO2000 – 2006 : a historical warning by ASPO

Are we here ?


Observing the "visible part of the iceberg" leads to conclude Observing the "visible part of the iceberg" leads to conclude that we have plentiful and fast growing oil and gas reserves that we have plentiful and fast growing oil and gas reserves

and that there is no problemand that there is no problem

Oil world reservesOil world reserves

Gas world reservesGas world reserves

19731973

Years ofYears ofconsumptionconsumption

GTOEGTOEYears ofYears of

consumptionconsumptionGTOEGTOE

20002000

8686

5252

3030

4848

140140

140140

4040

6565

PROVEN RESERVES : AN OPTIMISTIC PICTURE


What the R/P (Reserves/Production) ratio meansWhat the R/P (Reserves/Production) ratio means

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

World oil production (Mbep/d)

30 years

R/P = 40 years

!

? ??

this area = already usedthis area = reserves left


But a closer look (at ultimate reserves) suggestsBut a closer look (at ultimate reserves) suggestsa different picturea different picture

Between 1973 and 2000, ultimate reserve estimatesBetween 1973 and 2000, ultimate reserve estimates

have practically remained flat.have practically remained flat.

G barrelsG barrels

19731973Ultimate reserves Ultimate reserves

(conventional crude, (conventional crude, worldwide)worldwide)

2000 - 30002000 - 3000 2000 - 30002000 - 3000

20002000

source: PR Bauquis 26-28 novembre 2000 - Global Foundation

AFG Pic gazier 88 novembre 2006Source: IFP/DSEP adapted from Martin (1985) and Campbell (1992) - Updated 2000

* Cumulative production + proven reserves + possible reserves yet to be discoveredGb

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Pra

tt (

1942

)D

uce

(19

46)

Po

ug

e (1

946)

Wee

ks (

1948

)L

ever

son

(19

49)

Wee

ks (

1949

)M

acN

aug

hto

n (

1953

)H

ub

ber

t (1

956)

Wee

ks (

1958

)W

eeks

(19

59)

Hen

dri

cks

(196

5)R

yam

n (

1967

)S

hel

l (19

68)

Wee

ks (

1968

)H

ub

ber

t (1

969)

Mo

od

y (1

970)

Wee

ks (

1971

)W

arm

an (

1972

)B

auq

uis

(19

72)

Sch

wei

nfu

rth

(19

73)

Lin

den

(19

73)

Bo

nill

as (

1974

)H

ow

itt

(197

4)M

oo

dy

(197

5)W

EC

(19

77)

Nel

son

(19

77)

De

Bru

yne

(197

8)K

lem

me

(197

8)N

ehri

ng

(19

78)

Neh

rin

g (

1979

)H

alb

ou

ty (

1979

)M

eyer

ho

ff (

1979

)R

oo

rda

(197

9)H

alb

ou

ty (

1979

)W

EC

(19

80)

Str

ickl

and

(19

81)

Co

liti (

1981

)N

ehri

ng

(19

82)

Mas

ters

(19

83)

Kal

inin

(19

83)

Mar

tin

(19

84)

Ivan

ho

e (1

984)

Mas

ters

(19

87)

Cam

pb

ell (

1991

)M

aste

rs (

1991

)T

ow

nes

(19

93)

Pet

roco

nsu

lt. (

1993

)M

aste

rs (

1994

)U

SG

S (

2000

)

1940194019491949

1950195019591959

1960196019691969

1970197019791979

1980198019891989

1990199020002000

HISTORICAL VIEWS ON ULTIMATE RESERVES


THE IRREVERSIBLE DECLINE OF OIL PRODUCTIONSIN THE USA

(*) Discoveries are registered as per their initially declared sizes and their timing is « forwarded » by 33 years

Source : King Hubbert 1956 - Updated by Jean Laherrere


34

39

29

7

110111

16

36

32

36

20

1412

1311

58

47

24 5

7

9

15

20 23 2123

2426 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

01/0506/10 11/1516/2021/2526/30 31/3536/40 41/4546/50 51/5556/60 61/6566/70 71/7576/80 81/8586/90 91/9596/002001 -2004 (*)

Gboe/year (5-year average)

‘Classic’ exploration

Deep sea (>500m)

Kashagan / Shah Deniz

Liquid HC production

Sources:- Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005)- Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)

(*) 4-year average

2.2 4.7

4.21.5

0.9

Excl. non-conventional oils

such as Athabasca and

Orenoco

Oil and condensate discoveries and worldwide production of liquid hydrocarbons


Schistes bitumineux

Pays de l’OCDE 2005

Pays de l’OPEC 2005

Pays non OCDE – non OPEC

18 15 10 5

20052005 20202020 20502050 21002100

8361

6441

3511

13

0.5 0.5

Production par pays ou Zones géographiques(hydrocarbures liquides naturelsProduction par pays ou Zones géographiques(hydrocarbures liquides naturels

USACanadaMer du NordAutres

Sous total

9 12 7 4Arabie 3.5 5 3 2Iran 2.5 5 4 2Irak

1 1 1 0.5Autres

2 3 2 1Koweit2 4 5 4Venezuela2 3 1 0.5Algérie + Libye2 3 1 0.5Nigéria3 4 1 0.5Emirats + Qatar

27 40 25 15 Sous total

Russie et autres : Kazakstan, Azerbaïdjan,Angola, Mexique, Argentine, Colombie, Brésil, Congo, etc…

4 / 81 5 / 98 3.5 / 69 2.6 / 50 Total Monde GTep / mb/d

36 43 30 20

4 10

Prospective de la production pétrolière mondiale(first draft : final draft objective end 2006)


Conclusions about "peak oil"

Since June 2006 it can be considered that views about Peak Oil in France have become reasonably similar :

TOTAL : Thierry Desmarest – around 2020 / around 100 Mb/d ASPO France : J. Laherrère – around 2015 / less than 100 Mb/d

IFP : Y. Mathieu –ondulated plateau 20150/2030 – less than 100 Mb/d

This point of view is widely different from those among the "optimists" who believe that Peak Oil is not "reserves related" but a political problem : insufficient investments and restrictive policies about investments by OPEC countries, Russia and Mexico :

Exxon-Mobil – ongoing at ad. Campaign "no signs of peak oil" Aramco – July 2006 – "no reserves problems" BP : John Browne – May 2006 - "There is no reserves problem" Mike Lynch (ex MIT) – "similar and above 120 Mb/d" USGS, DOE, EIA, IEA…



PARTIE 2

LA PROBLEMATIQUE DU PICDU GAZ


Applicabilité au gaz des méthodologiesutilisables pour le pic pétrolier

Réserves ultimes et

courbes d'écrémage

. oui, mais incertitudes très différentes de celles du pétrole (taux de récupération facteur majeur pour le pétrole, secondaire pour le gaz).

. Moindre maturité de l'exploration gaz pour le Courbes d'écrémage.

. Plus d'incertitudes pour les ressources en place non conventionnelles de gaz que de pétrole ?

Etudes "bottom-up" : . Méthodologie la plus prometteuse.

Courbes de Hubbert : . L'échec aux USA. L'applicabilité probable au plan mondial.


18

26

8

16

23

1514

23

65

52

3

0 0 0 0 0 1 2

6

11

6

151413

119

87

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

01/0506/10 11/1516/2021/2526/30 31/3536/40 41/4546/50 51/5556/60 61/6566/70 71/7576/80 81/8586/90 91/9596/002001 -2004 (*)

(*) 4-year average

Gboe/uear (5-year average)

1.4

2.2

3.9

‘Classic’ exploration

Deep sea (>500m)

Kashagan / Shah Deniz

Liquid HC production

Sources:- Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005)- Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)

Gas-hydrocarbon discoveries and production worldwide

(Hubbert methodology for world gas)


Exposé PRB interne TOTAL – avril 2001 - (1)








Source : Cedigaz 2006

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1950

1970

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Gm

3

AutresAustralie

AlgérieIndonésie

VenezuelaQatar

NorvègeNigeria

Arabie SaouditeIran

CEIRussie

Etats-Unis

Evolution historique de la production nette de gaz dans le monde(1950-2004 – gaz commercialisé)


(Vision du LEPII) : sources ?


Vision PR. Bauquis du profil gazier mondial

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110

pic/plateau : 2030-20504000 Gm3/an

Réserves ultimes >400 Gtep

pic plateau : 2020-20304000 Gm3/an

Réerves ultimes > 300 GTep

Vision LEPIIpic/plateau : 2030-2050

Réserves ultimes > 500 GTep

Plateau à6000 Gm3/an


Conclusions

Il reste beaucoup de travail à faire pour mieux déterminer les deux paramètres essentiels du "pic gaz" au plan mondial :

Date ou fourchette de dates Niveau de production mondiale.

L'IFP; l'AFGTP, l'AFG… et l'ASPO doivent y consacrer des efforts importants car les enjeux sont majeurs : ce devrait être un pôle privilégié de coopération entre l'AFG et l'AFTP.

Il faut que ces travaux soient consacrés tant aux études globales ("Top Down") que détaillées ("Bottom Up").

(objectif PRB 2007 : un profil gaz mondial long terme "Bottom Up")

Documents

8 novembre 2006 AFG Pic gazier 1 Le pic de la production mondiale de gaz naturel et ses impacts Pierre-René BAUQUIS Professeur Associé ENSPM (IFP School)