Des Com Posiciondfg

7/23/2019 Des Com Posiciondfg

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/des-com-posiciondfg 1/48

DATOS MENSUALES

Mes T Yt

1 1 189

2 2 229

3 3 249

4 4 289

5 5 260

6 6 4317 7 660

8 8 777

9 9 915

10 10 613

11 11 485

12 12 277

1 13 244

2 14 296

3 15 319

4 16 370

5 17 313

6 18 5567 19 831

8 20 960

9 21 1152

10 22 759

11 23 607

12 24 371

1 25 298

2 26 378

3 27 373

4 28 443

5 29 374

6 30 6607 31 1004

8 32 1153

9 33 1388

10 34 904

11 35 715

12 36 441

1 37 352

2 38 445

3 39 453

4 40 541

5 41 457

6 42 7627 43 1194

8 44 1361

9 45 1615

10 46 1059

11 47 824

12 48 495



DESCOMPOSICION ST MODELO MULTIPLICATIVO

TxC Y/CMA Y/Sn

Mes T Y MA CMA SxI Sn Yd T=Yde1 1 189 0.49 383.15 389.61

2 2 229 0.60 384.48 399.10

3 3 249 0.60 418.18 408.594 4 289 0.68 425.03 418.08

5 5 260 0.56 460.78 427.57

6 6 431 0.99 437.32 437.06

7 7 660 447.83 450.13 1.466 1.47 449.90 446.55

8 8 777 452.42 455.21 1.707 1.69 458.98 456.05

9 9 915 458.00 460.92 1.985 1.99 459.80 465.54

10 10 613 463.83 467.21 1.312 1.31 468.93 475.03

11 11 485 470.58 472.79 1.026 1.03 471.44 484.52

12 12 277 475.00 480.21 0.577 0.60 461.63 494.01

1 13 244 485.42 492.54 0.495 0.49 494.65 503.50

2 14 296 499.67 507.29 0.583 0.60 496.97 512.99

3 15 319 514.92 524.79 0.608 0.60 535.74 522.48

4 16 370 534.67 540.75 0.684 0.68 544.16 531.97

5 17 313 546.83 551.92 0.567 0.56 554.70 541.46

6 18 556 557.00 560.92 0.991 0.99 564.16 550.95

7 19 831 564.83 567.08 1.465 1.47 566.46 560.44

8 20 960 569.33 572.75 1.676 1.69 567.08 569.93

9 21 1152 576.17 578.42 1.992 1.99 578.89 579.42

10 22 759 580.67 583.71 1.300 1.31 580.62 588.91

11 23 607 586.75 589.29 1.030 1.03 590.03 598.40

12 24 371 591.83 596.17 0.622 0.60 618.28 607.89

1 25 298 600.50 607.71 0.490 0.49 604.13 617.38

2 26 378 614.92 622.96 0.607 0.60 634.64 626.873 27 373 631.00 640.83 0.582 0.60 626.43 636.36

4 28 443 650.67 656.71 0.675 0.68 651.52 645.86

5 29 374 662.75 667.25 0.561 0.56 662.81 655.35

6 30 660 671.75 674.67 0.978 0.99 669.68 664.84

7 31 1004 677.58 1.47 684.39 674.33

8 32 1153 1.69 681.09 683.82

9 33 1388 1.99 697.49 693.31

10 34 904 1.31 691.54 702.80

11 35 715 1.03 695.01 712.29

12 36 441 0.60 734.94 721.78

1 37 352 0.49 713.60 731.27

2 38 445 0.60 747.13 740.763 39 453 0.60 760.79 750.25

4 40 541 0.68 795.65 759.74

5 41 457 0.56 809.90 769.23

6 42 762 0.99 773.18 778.72

7 43 1194 1.47 813.90 788.21

8 44 1361 1.69 803.96 797.70

9 45 1615 1.99 811.56 807.19

10 46 1059 1.31 810.11 816.68

11 47 824 1.03 800.96 826.17

12 48 495 0.60 824.93 835.67

MEDIA 563.42

796.50

Max 1388.00 677.58 674.67 1.99 1.99 734.94 721.78



Min 189.00 447.83 450.13 0.49 0.49 383.15 389.61

TABLA DE ERRORES de PREDICCION

AJUSTE

SUMA

ERROR

PREDICCION

SUMA

ERROR

AJUSTE DE TENDENCIA LINEAL A LOS DATOS Yd (ST DE

Regression Statistics

M#$%i&$e R 0.99

R S'#ae 0.99

A)* R S'#ae 0.98

S%an)a) E+ 12.46

O,se-a%i+ns 36

ANOA

df SS MS F p(F)

Re/essi+n 1.00 349920.55 349920.55 2253.79 0.00

Resi)#a$ 34.00 5278.79 155.26

T+%a$ 35.00 355199.34

Coef St Err t p L 95% U 95% B(95%)

In%ee&% 380.12 4.24 89.62 0.00 371.50 388.74 17.24

T 9.49 0.20 47.47 0.00 9.08 9.90 0.81

RESIDUAL OUTUT

Os !red Yd Resid"a#s

1 389.61 6.46

2 399.10 14.62

3 408.59 9.59

4 418.08 6.95

5 427.57 33.20

6 437.06 0.26

7 446.55 3.34

8 456.05 2.94

9 465.54 5.7410 475.03 6.09

11 484.52 13.08

12 494.01 32.38

13 503.50 8.84

14 512.99 16.02

15 522.48 13.26

16 531.97 12.19

17 541.46 13.24

18 550.95 13.21

19 560.44 6.02

20 569.93 2.85

21 579.42 0.5322 588.91 8.29

23 598.40 8.37

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

Y d



24 607.89 10.39

25 617.38 13.26

26 626.87 7.76

27 636.36 9.93

28 645.86 5.66

29 655.35 7.46

30 664.84 4.85

31 674.33 10.0632 683.82 2.73

33 693.31 4.18

34 702.80 11.26

35 712.29 17.28

36 721.78 13.16

S#a Resi)#+s 0.000

ENDO UE EL OMONENTE I ARROA RESULTADOS ERANOS A 1

LA ESTIMAION SE AE ONSIDERANDO UNIAMENTE TENDENIA EST



Error Error Abs Error

******* Error Absoluo Rel!"#o Cu!dr!do

Ye= TxSn C=Yd/T Cpm I e=(Y - Ye) Abs[e] Abs[e/Y] 192.19 0.983 3.19 3.19 1.69 10.15

237.71 0.963 0.990 0.973 8.71 8.71 3.80 75.88

243.29 1.023 1.001 1.022 5.71 5.71 2.29 32.60284.28 1.017 1.039 0.978 4.72 4.72 1.63 22.32

241.26 1.078 1.032 1.045 18.74 18.74 7.21 351.01

430.74 1.001 1.029 0.973 0.26 0.26 0.06 0.07

655.10 1.007 1.005 1.003 4.90 4.90 0.74 24.04

772.03 1.006 1.001 1.006 4.97 4.97 0.64 24.73

926.42 0.988 0.994 0.994 11.42 11.42 1.25 130.37

620.97 0.987 0.983 1.005 7.97 7.97 1.30 63.46

498.45 0.973 0.965 1.008 13.45 13.45 2.77 180.95

296.43 0.934 0.963 0.970 19.43 19.43 7.01 377.53

248.36 0.982 0.962 1.021 4.36 4.36 1.79 19.03

305.54 0.969 0.992 0.976 9.54 9.54 3.22 91.07

311.10 1.025 1.006 1.020 7.90 7.90 2.48 62.38

361.71 1.023 1.024 0.999 8.29 8.29 2.24 68.68

305.53 1.024 1.024 1.001 7.47 7.47 2.39 55.85

542.98 1.024 1.020 1.004 13.02 13.02 2.34 169.46

822.17 1.011 1.010 1.001 8.83 8.83 1.06 78.01

964.82 0.995 1.002 0.993 4.82 4.82 0.50 23.25

1153.05 0.999 0.993 1.006 1.05 1.05 0.09 1.11

769.84 0.986 0.990 0.996 10.84 10.84 1.43 117.53

615.61 0.986 0.996 0.990 8.61 8.61 1.42 74.19

364.77 1.017 0.994 1.023 6.23 6.23 1.68 38.84

304.54 0.979 1.003 0.976 6.54 6.54 2.19 42.76

373.38 1.012 0.992 1.021 4.62 4.62 1.22 21.39378.91 0.984 1.002 0.983 5.91 5.91 1.59 34.97

439.15 1.009 1.002 1.007 3.85 3.85 0.87 14.82

369.79 1.011 1.009 1.002 4.21 4.21 1.13 17.74

655.22 1.007 1.011 0.996 4.78 4.78 0.72 22.84

989.24 1.015 1.006 1.009 14.76 14.76 1.47 217.89

1157.62 0.996 1.006 0.990 4.62 4.62 0.40 21.32

1379.69 1.006 0.995 1.011 8.31 8.31 0.60 69.13

918.72 0.984 0.989 0.995 14.72 14.72 1.63 216.56

732.77 0.976 0.993 0.983 17.77 17.77 2.49 315.94

433.11 1.018 7.89 7.89 1.79 62.33

360.72 8.72 8.72 2.48 75.97

441.21 3.79 3.79 0.85 14.39446.73 6.27 6.27 1.39 39.37

516.59 24.41 24.41 4.51 596.01

434.05 22.95 22.95 5.02 526.69

767.46 5.46 5.46 0.72 29.82

1156.31 37.69 37.69 3.16 1420.53

1350.41 10.59 10.59 0.78 112.11

1606.32 8.68 8.68 0.54 75.35

1067.59 8.59 8.59 0.81 73.80

849.94 25.94 25.94 3.15 672.69

501.44 6.44 6.44 1.30 41.51

563.79

1379.69 1.04 1.04

e2



192.19 0.96 0.97

13.48 292.43 67.14 3150.18

0.37 8.12 1.86 87.51

59.24 169.54 24.70 3678.23

4.94 14.13 2.06 306.52

SESTAIONALI!ADA"

Yd



IONALIDAD



ESTIMACION TENDENCIA LINEAL$ )e a : , %

;ORMULA MATRIIAL< LINE;IT 9.49 s$+&e INDE=(LINEST(>3<>

9.49 380.12 380.12 in%ee&% INDE=(LINEST(>3<>

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

f(x) = 9.4905026184x + 380.1209844157R² = 0.9851385043

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1

0

1

1

1

2

1

3

1

4

1

5

1

6

1

7

1

8

1

9

2

0

2

1

2

2

2

3

2

4

2

5

2

6

2

7

2

8

2

9

3

0

3

1

3

2

3

3

3

4

3

5

3

6

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.00

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.00

1800.00



1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

Indice Es!ci"n!# $"%&!#i'!d"

Sn

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1

0

1

1

1

2

1

3

1

4

1

5

1

6

1

7

1

8

1

9

2

0

2

1

2

2

2

3

2

4

2

5

2

6

2

7

2

8

2

9

3

0

3

1

0.920

0.940

0.960

0.980

1.000

1.020

1.040

1.060

!c"% IRRE*,R





8?A3<A38"?1"

8?A3<A38"?2"

40

Y

Ye

Ye=

TxSn

Y



12

3

2

3

3

3

4





DESCOMPOSICION ST MODELO ADITIVO

Mes T Y M$ CM$ S& Sn Yd

1 1 189 266.99 455.99

2 2 229 215.99 444.99

3 3 249 224.68 473.68

4 4 289 180.10 469.105 5 260 253.95 513.95

6 6 431 2.34 428.66

7 7 660 447.83 450.13 209.875 249.03 410.97

8 8 777 452.42 455.21 321.792 366.65 410.35

9 9 915 458.00 460.92 454.083 525.97 389.03

10 10 613 463.83 467.21 145.792 172.68 440.32

11 11 485 470.58 472.79 12.208 27.09 457.91

12 12 277 475.00 480.21 203.208 202.05 479.05

1 13 244 485.42 492.54 248.542 266.99 510.99

2 14 296 499.67 507.29 211.292 215.99 511.99

3 15 319 514.92 524.79 205.792 224.68 543.68

4 16 370 534.67 540.75 170.750 180.10 550.10

5 17 313 546.83 551.92 238.917 253.95 566.95

6 18 556 557.00 560.92 4.917 2.34 553.66

7 19 831 564.83 567.08 263.917 249.03 581.97

8 20 960 569.33 572.75 387.250 366.65 593.35

9 21 1152 576.17 578.42 573.583 525.97 626.03

10 22 759 580.67 583.71 175.292 172.68 586.32

11 23 607 586.75 589.29 17.708 27.09 579.91

12 24 371 591.83 596.17 225.167 202.05 573.05

1 25 298 600.50 607.71 309.708 266.99 564.99

2 26 378 614.92 622.96 244.958 215.99 593.99

3 27 373 631.00 640.83 267.833 224.68 597.684 28 443 650.67 656.71 213.708 180.10 623.10

5 29 374 662.75 667.25 293.250 253.95 627.95

6 30 660 671.75 674.67 14.667 2.34 657.66

7 31 1004 677.58 249.03 754.97

8 32 1153 366.65 786.35

9 33 1388 525.97 862.03

10 34 904 172.68 731.32

11 35 715 27.09 687.91

12 36 441 202.05 643.05

1 37 352 266.99 618.99

2 38 445 215.99 660.99

3 39 453 224.68 677.684 40 541 180.10 721.10

5 41 457 253.95 710.95

6 42 762 2.34 759.66

7 43 1194 249.03 944.97

8 44 1361 366.65 994.35

9 45 1615 525.97 1089.03

10 46 1059 172.68 886.32

11 47 824 27.09 796.91

12 48 495 202.05 697.05

MEDIA 563.42

796.50

Max 1388.00 677.58 674.67 573.58 525.97 862.03

Min 189.00 447.83 450.13 309.71 266.99 389.03



TABLA DE ERRORES de PREDICCION

AJUSTE

SUMA

ERROR

PREDICCION

SUMA

ERROR

AJUSTE DE TENDENCIA LINEAL A LOS DATOS Yd (ST DESE

Regression Statistics

M#$%i&$e R 0.88

R S'#ae 0.78

A)* R S'#ae 0.77

S%an)a) E+ 53.10

O,se-a%i+ns 36.00

ANOA

df SS MS F p(F)

Re/essi+n 1.00 334164.92 334164.92 118.51 0.00

Resi)#a$ 34.00 95869.11 2819.68

T+%a$ 35.00 430034.02

Coef St Error t p L95% U95%

In%ee&% 404.97 18.08 22.40 0.00 368.24 441.71

T 9.27 0.85 10.89 0.00 7.54 11.01

RESIDUAL OUTUT

Os !red Yd Resid"a#s

1.00 414.25 54.88

2.00 423.52 34.60

3.00 432.80 54.02

4.00 442.07 40.16

5.00 451.35 75.74

6.00 460.62 18.83

7.00 469.89 45.79

8.00 479.17 55.699.00 488.44 86.28

10.00 497.72 44.26

11.00 506.99 35.95

12.00 516.27 24.08

13.00 525.54 1.42

14.00 534.81 9.69

15.00 544.09 12.72

16.00 553.36 9.86

17.00 562.64 17.44

18.00 571.91 5.12

19.00 581.19 13.92

20.00 590.46 16.02

21.00 599.74 39.43

22.00 609.01 9.55



23.00 618.28 25.24

24.00 627.56 41.37

25.00 636.83 58.71

26.00 646.11 38.98

27.00 655.38 44.57

28.00 664.66 28.43

29.00 673.93 32.85

30.00 683.20 12.4131.00 692.48 75.62

32.00 701.75 97.72

33.00 711.03 164.14

34.00 720.30 24.16

35.00 729.58 28.54

36.00 738.85 82.66



E+ E+

E+ A,s+$#%+ A,s Re$a%i-+

T'Yde Ye= T+Sn C& C & e'(Y Ye) $se* $se+Y*

401.12 134.12 54.876 54.88 54.88 29.04

410.39 194.40 34.602 47.831 13.229 34.60 34.60 15.11

419.66 194.98 54.015 42.925 11.090 54.02 54.02 21.69

428.94 248.84 40.157 56.637 16.479 40.16 40.16 13.90438.21 184.26 75.737 32.355 43.382 75.74 75.74 29.13

447.49 449.83 18.829 3.706 22.535 18.83 18.83 4.37

456.76 705.79 45.791 40.103 5.688 45.79 45.79 6.94

466.04 832.69 55.690 62.586 6.896 55.69 55.69 7.17

475.31 1001.28 86.277 62.076 24.201 86.28 86.28 9.43

484.58 657.26 44.260 55.496 11.236 44.26 44.26 7.22

493.86 520.95 35.951 34.763 1.188 35.95 35.95 7.41

503.13 301.08 24.079 20.482 3.597 24.08 24.08 8.69

512.41 245.42 1.416 11.729 10.313 1.42 1.42 0.58

521.68 305.69 9.691 0.539 10.229 9.69 9.69 3.27

530.96 306.28 12.722 4.299 8.424 12.72 12.72 3.99

540.23 360.14 9.865 13.344 3.479 9.86 9.86 2.67

549.51 295.56 17.445 7.396 10.049 17.44 17.44 5.57

558.78 561.12 5.121 8.747 13.868 5.12 5.12 0.92

568.05 817.08 13.917 8.271 5.646 13.92 13.92 1.67

577.33 943.98 16.017 23.121 7.104 16.02 16.02 1.67

586.60 1112.57 39.430 15.298 24.132 39.43 39.43 3.42

595.88 768.55 9.552 1.545 11.097 9.55 9.55 1.26

605.15 632.24 25.243 25.389 0.146 25.24 25.24 4.16

614.43 412.37 41.372 41.775 0.403 41.37 41.37 11.15

623.70 356.71 58.709 46.355 12.354 58.71 58.71 19.70

632.97 416.98 38.983 47.421 8.437 38.98 38.98 10.31

642.25 417.57 44.570 37.327 7.243 44.57 44.57 11.95651.52 471.43 28.428 35.282 6.854 28.43 28.43 6.42

660.80 406.85 32.848 24.563 8.285 32.85 32.85 8.78

670.07 672.41 12.414 10.121 22.535 12.41 12.41 1.88

679.35 928.38 75.624 53.645 21.979 75.62 75.62 7.53

688.62 1055.28 97.725 112.496 14.771 97.72 97.72 8.48

697.90 1223.86 164.138 95.339 68.799 164.14 164.14 11.83

707.17 879.84 24.155 53.252 29.097 24.16 24.16 2.67

716.44 743.54 28.536 29.015 0.479 28.54 28.54 3.99

725.72 523.66 82.665 82.66 82.66 18.74

734.99 468.00 116.00 116.00 32.95

744.27 528.28 83.28 83.28 18.71

753.54 528.86 75.86 75.86 16.75762.82 582.72 41.72 41.72 7.71

772.09 518.14 61.14 61.14 13.38

781.36 783.71 21.71 21.71 2.85

790.64 1039.67 154.33 154.33 12.93

799.91 1166.57 194.43 194.43 14.29

809.19 1335.15 279.85 279.85 17.33

818.46 991.14 67.86 67.86 6.41

827.74 854.83 30.83 30.83 3.74

837.01 634.96 139.96 139.96 28.27

563.42

725.72 1223.86 164.14 112.50 68.80

401.12 134.12 86.28 62.59 29.10



0.00 1460.85 312.71

0.00 40.58 8.69

125.98 1266.96 175.32

10.50 105.58 14.61

TAIONALI!ADA"

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1000.00

T

Y d





E+

#a)a)+ ESTIMACION TENDENCIA LINEAL$ )e a : , %

3011.41

1197.29

2917.63

1612.615736.11

354.53

2096.80

3101.40

7443.73

1958.93

1292.46

579.82

2.01

93.91 ;ORMULA MATRIIAL< LINE;IT 9.27 s$+&e INDE=(LIN

161.86 9.27 391.84 391.84 in%ee&% INDE=(LIN

97.31

304.31

26.23

193.67

256.55

1554.75

91.25

637.23

1711.64

3446.73

1519.69

1986.49808.14

1078.99

154.11

5719.00

9550.11

26941.22

583.47

814.30

6833.42

13456.32

6934.85

5755.141740.59

3738.17

471.18

23818.21

37803.85

78313.35

4605.32

950.40

19587.98

e,

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

f(x) = 9.2743806306x + 391.840625

R² = 0.7770662309

Chart Title

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.00

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

Indice Es!ci"n!# $"%&!#i'!d"Sn



95869.11

2663.03

197175.37

16431.28

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

-400.00

-300.00

-200.00

-100.00

Yd





EST(>3<>38?A3<A38"?1"

EST(>3<>38?A3<A38"?2"

35 40

Ye=

T+Sn

Y



10 11 12





INDICE ESTACIONAL MULTIPLICATIVO

MES A@1 A@2 A@3 S%ed"o Sn

1 ENE 0.495 0.490 0.493 0.493

2 ;E 0.583 0.607 0.595 0.596

3 MAR 0.608 0.582 0.595 0.595

4 AR 0.684 0.675 0.679 0.680

5 MA 0.567 0.561 0.564 0.564

6 UN 0.991 0.978 0.985 0.9867 UL 1.466 1.465 1.466 1.467

8 A>O 1.707 1.676 1.692 1.693

9 ST 1.985 1.992 1.988 1.990

10 OT 1.312 1.300 1.306 1.307

11 NO 1.026 1.030 1.028 1.029

12 DI 0.577 0.622 0.600 0.600

S#a 11.990 &'()))

INDICE ESTACIONAL ADITIVO

MES A@1 A@2 A@3 S%ed"o Sn

1 ENE 248.542 309.708 279.125 266.991

2 ;E 211.292 244.958 228.125 215.991

3 MAR 205.792 267.833 236.813 224.679

4 AR 170.750 213.708 192.229 180.095

5 MA 238.917 293.250 266.083 253.950

6 UN 4.917 14.667 9.792 2.342

7 UL 209.875 263.917 236.896 249.030

8 A>O 321.792 387.250 354.521 366.655

9 ST 454.083 573.583 513.833 525.967

10 OT 145.792 175.292 160.542 172.675

11 NO 12.208 17.708 14.958 27.09212 DI 203.208 225.167 214.188 202.054

S#a 145.604 )()))



ERRORES DE REDIION DESCOMPOSICION MULTIPLICATIVA ERRORES DE REDI

AJUSTE PREDICCION

SUMA INDIE SUMA INDIE

T 36 12 T

ME 13.5 0.4 59.2 4.9 ME

MAD 292.4 8.1 169.5 14.1 MAD

MAE 67.1 1.9 24.7 2.1 MAE

MSE 3150.2 87.5 3678.2 306.5 MSERMSE SD 9.4 17.5 RMSE SD

1.7 2.2

TR@S>N TR@S>N

RITERI RITERI

Tie Se'#ene $+% B+

Linea %en) 380. : 9.49 %

1C50 1C51 1C52 1C53 1C54 1C55

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2(= 1.E3"

8

a%#a$

B+eas%

95.0D $ii%s



ION DESCOMPOSICION ADITIVA

AJUSTE PREDICCION

SUMA INDIE SUMA INDIE

36 12

0.0 0.0 126.0 10.5

1460.9 40.6 1267.0 105.6

312.7 8.7 175.3 14.6

95869.1 2663.0 197175.4 16431.351.6 128.2

9.2 16.1



Mes Y T D& D' D D+ D, D- D. D D0 D&) D&& D&' Ye

1 189 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 128.79

2 229 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 186.13

3 249 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 181.65

4 289 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 252.46

5 260 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200.79

6 431 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 434.13

7 660 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 716.79

8 777 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 848.46

9 915 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1036.79

10 613 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 643.79

11 485 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 487.46

12 277 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 248.13

1 244 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 243.67

2 296 14 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 301.00

3 319 15 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 143.59

4 370 16 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 367.33

5 313 17 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 315.676 556 18 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 549.00

7 831 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 831.67

8 960 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 963.33

9 1152 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1151.67

10 759 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 758.67

11 607 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 602.33

12 371 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 363.00

1 298 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 358.54

2 378 26 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 415.88

3 373 27 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 258.47

4 443 28 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 482.21

5 374 29 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 430.54

6 660 30 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 663.88

7 1004 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 946.54

8 1153 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1078.21

9 1388 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1266.54

10 904 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 873.54

11 715 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 717.21

12 441 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 477.88

1 352 37 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 473.42

2 445 38 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 530.75

3 453 39 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 373.34

4 541 40 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 597.085 457 41 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 545.42

6 762 42 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 778.75

7 1194 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1061.42

8 1361 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1193.08

9 1615 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1381.42

10 1059 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 988.42

11 824 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 832.08

12 495 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 592.75

S#a

ME

MSE

RMSE



RE1RESION CON VARIABLES DICOTOMICAS SIN INTERCEPTO

e2 3Y4Ye5

60.21 3625.04 SUMMAR OUTUT

42.87 1838.27

67.35 4536.58 Regression Statistics

36.54 1335.29 M#$%i&$e R 1.00

59.21 3505.63 R S'#ae 0.99

3.12 9.77 A)* R S' 0.95

56.79 3225.29 S%E 57.81

71.46 5106.29 O,se-a%i+n 36.00

121.79 14833.21

30.79 948.13 ANOA

2.46 6.04 df SS MS F

28.88 833.77 Re/essi+n 13 14718233.38 1132171.80 338.73

0.33 0.11 Resi)#a$ 23 76875.63 3342.42

5.00 25.00 T+%a$ 36 14795109.00

175.41 30767.35

2.67 7.11 Coef StEr t p

2.67 7.11 In%ee&% 0.007.00 49.00 T 9.57 0.98 9.73 0.00

0.67 0.44 D1 119.22 35.74 3.34 0.00

3.33 11.11 D2 166.98 36.11 4.62 0.00

0.33 0.11 D3 170.07 36.49 4.66 0.00

0.33 0.11 D4 214.17 36.90 5.80 0.00

4.67 21.78 D5 152.93 37.33 4.10 0.00

8.00 64.00 D6 376.69 37.78 9.97 0.00

60.54 3665.29 D7 649.78 38.25 16.99 0.00

37.88 1434.52 D8 771.88 38.74 19.92 0.00

114.53 13117.41 D9 950.64 39.25 24.22 0.00

39.21 1537.29 D10 548.06 39.78 13.78 0.00

56.54 3196.96 D11 382.16 40.32 9.48 0.00

3.88 15.02 D12 133.25 40.88 3.26 0.00

57.46 3301.46

74.79 5593.79

121.46 14752.13

30.46 927.71

2.21 4.88

36.88 1359.77

121.42 14742.01

85.75 7353.06

79.66 6345.12

56.08 3145.3488.42 7817.51

16.75 280.56

132.58 17578.34

167.92 28196.01

233.58 54561.17

70.58 4982.01

8.08 65.34

97.75 9555.06

567.36 274284.30

11.82

5714.26

75.59

e'

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1

0

1

1

1

2

1

3

1

4

1

5

1

6

1

7

1

8

1

9

2

0

2

1

2

2

2

3

2

4

2

5

2

6

2

7

2

8

2

9

3

0

3

1

3

2

3

3

3

4

3

5

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800



RE1RESION CON VARIABLES DICOTOMICAS

Ye

128.79 SUMMAR OUTUT

186.13

198.79 Regression Statistics

252.46 M#$%i&$e R 0.99

200.79 R S'#ae 0.98

434.13 A)*#s%e) R 0.97

716.79 S%an)a) E 57.81

848.46 O,se-a%i+ 36.00

1036.79

643.79 ANOA

p(F) 487.46 df SS MS

0.00 248.13 Re/essi+ 12 3290453.13 274204.43

243.67 Resi)#a$ 23 76875.62 3342.42

301.00 T+%a$ 35 3367328.75

313.67

367.33 Coef StEr t

315.67 In%ee&% 133.25 40.88 3.26549.00 T 9.57 0.98 9.73

831.67 D1 14.03 48.43 0.29

963.33 D2 33.73 48.22 0.70

1151.67 D3 36.82 48.03 0.77

758.67 D4 80.92 47.86 1.69

602.33 D5 19.68 47.70 0.41

363.00 D6 243.44 47.57 5.12

358.54 D7 516.53 47.46 10.88

415.88 D8 638.63 47.37 13.48

428.54 D9 817.39 47.30 17.28

482.21 D10 414.81 47.25 8.78

430.54 D11 248.91 47.21 5.27

663.88

946.54

1078.21

1266.54

873.54

717.21

477.88

473.42

530.75

543.42

597.08545.42

778.75

1061.42

1193.08

1381.42

988.42

832.08

592.75

3

6

3

7

3

8

3

9

4

0

4

1

4

2

4

3

4

4

4

5

4

6

4

7

4

8

Y



CON INTERCEPTO

F p(F)

82.04 0.00

p

0.000.00

0.77

0.49

0.45

0.10

0.68

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00



USA6 7OUSIN1 STARTS N#e+ )e -i-ien)as n#e-as Iniia)as

a+ es S

1959 1 96.2

2 99.0

3 127.7

4 150.8

5 152.5

6 147.87 148.1

8 138.2

9 136.4

10 120.0

11 104.7

12 95.6

1960 1 86.0

2 90.7

3 90.5

4 123.0

5 130.2

6 122.8

7 114.3

8 130.3

9 96.9 1DESOMOSIION MULTI

10 110.4 2DESOMOSIION ADITIA

11 92.8 3RE>RESION DIOTOMIA

12 64.2

1961 1 70.4

2 74.1

3 104.2

4 112.8

5 127.6

6 134.8

7 126.6

8 127.1

9 125.4

10 124.8

11 103.0

12 82.2

1962 1 81.2

2 77.1

3 116.24 147.8

5 155.2

6 136.8

7 136.5

8 147.7

9 114.3

10 135.2

11 120.9

12 93.9

1963 1 79.0

2 89.6

3 124.84 164.2

5 172.7

1 1 1

2 1

3 1

4 1

5 1

6 1

7 1

8 1

9 1

1

0 1

1

1 1

1

2 1

1

3 1

1

4 1

1

5 1

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0



6 154.2

7 151.3

8 144.0

9 143.7

10 165.3

11 119.3

12 95.0

1964 1 97.92 101.3

3 129.1

4 147.1

5 152.8

6 157.2

7 140.6

8 138.3

9 119.8

10 141.2

11 110.6

12 93.0

1965 1 81.7

2 80.9

3 119.9

4 148.6

5 153.3

6 151.8

7 139.1

8 128.3

9 124.6

10 133.1

11 110.5

12 101.11966 1 79.4

2 76.2

3 118.1

4 140.9

5 130.0

6 120.6

7 99.2

8 101.8

9 89.1

10 76.6

11 72.8

12 60.21967 1 59.1

2 61.4

3 91.5

4 113.7

5 132.0

6 125.4

7 125.3

8 127.4

9 121.9

10 135.4

11 118.4

12 80.1

1968 1 80.5

2 84.6



3 126.6

4 162.0

5 140.9

6 137.9

7 139.8

8 136.6

9 134.2

10 140.811 127.1

12 96.4

1969 1 101.5

2 90.1

3 131.9

4 159.0

5 155.5

6 147.3

7 125.2

8 124.9

9 129.3

10 123.4

11 94.6

12 84.1

1970 1 66.4

2 74.3

3 114.7

4 128.4

5 125.0

6 135.2

7 140.8

8 128.7

9 130.910 140.9

11 126.9

12 121.4

1971 1 110.6

2 102.2

3 167.9

4 201.1

5 198.5

6 193.8

7 194.3

8 204.5

9 173.810 179.7

11 173.7

12 152.1

1972 1 149.1

2 152.2

3 203.9

4 211.6

5 225.8

6 223.1

7 206.5

8 228.6

9 203.0

10 216.5

11 185.7



12 150.5

1973 1 146.6

2 138.0

3 200.0

4 205.0

5 234.0

6 202.6

7 202.68 197.2

9 148.4

10 147.1

11 133.3

12 90.4

1974 1 84.5

2 109.4

3 124.8

4 159.5

5 149.0

6 147.6

7 126.6

8 111.1

9 98.3

10 96.7

11 75.1

12 55.1

1975 1 56.1

2 54.7

3 80.2

4 97.9

5 116.1

6 110.37 119.3

8 117.3

9 111.9

10 123.6

11 96.9

12 76.1

1976 1 72.5

2 89.9

3 118.4

4 137.2

5 147.9

6 154.27 136.6

8 145.9

9 151.8

10 148.4

11 127.1

12 107.4

1977 1 81.3

2 112.5

3 173.6

4 182.2

5 201.3

6 197.6

7 189.8

8 194.0



9 177.7

10 193.1

11 154.8

12 129.2

1978 1 88.6

2 101.3

3 172.1

4 197.55 211.0

6 216.0

7 192.2

8 190.9

9 180.5

10 192.1

11 158.6

12 119.5

1979 1 88.2

2 84.5

3 152.9

4 161.0

5 189.1

6 191.8

7 164.2

8 170.3

9 163.7

10 169.0

11 118.7

12 91.6

1980 1 73.1

2 79.9

3 85.14 96.2

5 91.7

6 116.4

7 120.1

8 129.9

9 138.3

10 152.7

11 112.9

12 95.9

1981 1 84.5

2 71.9

3 107.84 123.0

5 109.9

6 105.8

7 99.9

8 86.3

9 84.1

10 87.2

11 64.6

12 59.1

1982 1 47.2

2 51.3

3 78.2

4 84.1

5 98.8



6 91.1

7 106.8

8 96.0

9 106.4

10 110.5

11 108.9

12 82.9

1983 1 91.32 96.3

3 134.6

4 135.8

5 174.9

6 173.2

7 161.6

8 176.8

9 154.9

10 159.3

11 136.0

12 108.3

1984 1 109.1

2 130.0

3 137.5

4 172.7

5 180.7

6 184.0

7 162.1

8 147.4

9 148.5

10 152.3

11 126.2

12 98.91985 1 105.4

2 95.4

3 145.0

4 175.8

5 170.2

6 163.2

7 160.7

8 160.7

9 147.7

10 173.0

11 124.1

12 120.51986 1 115.6

2 107.2

3 151.0

4 188.2

5 186.6

6 183.6

7 172.0

8 163.8

9 154.0

10 154.8

11 115.6

12 113.0

1987 1 105.1

2 102.8



3 141.2

4 159.3

5 158.0

6 162.9

7 152.4

8 143.6

9 152.0

10 139.111 118.8

12 85.4

1988 1 78.2

2 90.2

3 128.8

4 153.2

5 140.2

6 150.2

7 137.0

8 136.8

9 131.1

10 135.1

11 113.0

12 94.2

1989 1 100.1

2 85.8

3 117.8

4 129.4

5 131.7

6 143.2

7 134.7

8 122.4

9 109.310 130.1

11 96.6

12 75.0

1990 1 99.2

2 86.9

3 108.5

4 119.0

5 121.1

6 117.8

7 111.2

8 102.8

9 93.110 94.2

11 81.4

12 57.4

1991 1 52.5

2 59.1

3 73.8

4 99.7

5 97.7

6 103.4

7 103.5

8 94.7

9 86.5

10 101.8

11 75.6



12 65.6

1992 1 71.6

2 78.8

3 111.6

4 109.7



IATIA

1

7 1

1

8 1

1

9 1

2

0 1

2

1 1

2

2 1

2

3 1

2

4 1

2

5 1

2

6 1

2

7 1

2

8 1

2

9 1

3

0 1

3

1 1

3

2 1

3

3 1

3

4 1

3

5 1

3

6 1

3

7 1

3

8 1

3

9 1















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