The ext Generation of esou ce Plan 1ng

ergy

ET Kl G SYSTEM EE S A D I A FUTU DOMI ATED BY WAS S

EW TEC D ENGAG D CO S M S

a ional Conference of S a e Leg· s a tu res 2019 egisla iv Summ·

Kathleen Spees

August 4 19

eG UP

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w ec nolo ies & ga e Cus o ers A e Ra idly Ove ak· g Tradi ional S p ly

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Primarily from Tr ditional upply

uclea Coal

40

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300

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ew Bui ds Focus do w

Technologies

2010-202.2 Cumula • e Additions

B y Sorg

uclea Coal

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Old" I Mod I Do s

The Traditio al IRP What's M·ssi · g?

• New re "ability & f1exib.li y needs

• Po icy goals

• New tech olog1 s

• Corporate sus ai ability goals

• C sto er preferences

• Distributed resou ces pt ke

• E ec ri · cat· on vs. grid defec ion

• E bling olicies & · f as ructur

no· er words .•.• Tradi ·onal :RP approac es are ill-equippe ·o address a mos every maJor dr ver ,hat 1s .reshap ng , · e gr di

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How Do o '' 1 la '' · or e New Grd?

e C r C

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At Bratt e We ave Had to Co pletely Rebui d 0 Modeli g Tools o Cap ure These su· e 0

F nda entally Differe t Ques io s

INPUTS: ASSUMPTIONS & SCENARIOS

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS

OEEP odel !"U o

TECHNICAL& ECONO IC POE L

R£UABIUTY & FLEXIBIUTY EEOS

""'1',11t.~~ME

lRANSMISSJO PLA NI G

RESOURCE MIX D OISPA CH

POLICY L V RS

ECONOM C IMPACTS ANALYSIS

RESULTS I

OPTIMA E ECTRTCITY R SOURCE MIX & 0 SPATCH

RATEPAYER& SOCIETAL COSTS

EMISSIONS& VIRONMENT

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The ex Generat·on o o er I Ps May ee to, ...

Support Large Scale Electrification

I • 1 any eg10 s

otent al o e .:;;;;.......:.......::..;;:..:;..;:;..~

ectr1f1cation I as o al emand

e y 2050

Understa,ndf1ng pace, :ocat ons, and result·ng infrastructure :needs req,uires deeper u -dersta, 1 d1·ng of customers, and more active engagement fe.g. if vehicle oads are to be contro able)

-! - 7,500 0 •

E

0 u > .... ·-u ---tj 4 00 QJ ~., _ ..

()1,r

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"" :> 3000

2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048

Autonomous

Vehic es Ri e Sha(ng?

Transportat on

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Elec ri ication· Curre tly he P i ary Feasible a h to 80% Decarboniza io or S ates and

c ·ties Aimi g o Hit 80x50 Goals

Au o omou drlv ng

~ ..... V Ch n In tOI

technotogy of cars as an cost tus symb progt

El ectr'ifi cation

With out Electrification:

Cl m t G rn nt c.ha.nge poltc es

With Electrification:

ew Entrants

36% Carbon Reduction Potential 72% Carbon Reduction Potential

MMT 0~

---~- 2015

000

0 0

How Ca U ility a at El c r ,cation Driven D

la ning A cou and?

for

Especial y n r,egio · s with S0xS0 g,oals, states and ut :lit es may need to expand planning to meet e.ne gy needs across all energy-intens~ve economic sectors (considering load:, em·:ssions, cost, and job impacts)

s PM del N r

M I i-Sec or lect i icatio and Dec boniz d nergy cono y Plan ing (DEEP)

R Id al

Cl a- E ctrf« ty ---, ornmercf J S.Olar I ust, I End-Use

B ornass

al IAdU al

Sus Natura n G•~

icle ross fuels Transporta • n

lo$ !,

The ex Generat·on o o er I Ps May ee to, ...

Redefine Reliability Needs

brattle· com 10

Tra i io o a C an Grid Ar W Headed or lacko s W e the u oes Down?

Myths Intuition may give us a false sense that the grid won't stay reliable un ess we ...

• Save baseload plan s from retiremen (or coal, or nuclear, or gas)

• Save a specific "favored" p,lan ,

• Stop buUding renewables

• B•uHd a gas pipeline

• Impose on-site fuel requ,remen s

Realities It's not a 11 hype. It wi I be a big chaUenge maintain reliability whHe going clean ...

• 'Many customers & policymakers want to go clean (reliabUi y concerns won't stop them)

• llntermi tent renewables do no provide the same bundle of relTabili y services as traditiona:I thermal plants

• Grid services we used to get "for free" wifli need to be defined and paid for

• Grid opera ors must learn o rely on non­, raditiona:1 resources o provide these grid services

• Cus omers may prefer to save money by allowing some outages .r~ttle om 1

o Cari y: W y Aga1 ?

oW eed aseload a ts

... ..,We do 't. We ca , d;rop "baseload'1 fro,m p ianning voca1b · :ary.

ad1t1onal P ng Conce : Baseload lants con ribu d o a cost- ff ct v resourc mix and rovid d

ma y grid serv·ces "for free" as a byprod c of prod cing e ergy.

0 6 g 18 0 2

our of Day

yMix Concept: E uat on is flip ed. · nergy will e

"free" ost oft e time Flexi ility an ot er g(d services h veto be define and paid for.

0 2 0 1

HourofO

1 8 0 2

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