Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
Jean Laherrère 18 Mars 2020 Covid19: Mise au point des données au 17 mars 2020 ; France & world -France : régions : Cas confirmés du 13 au 17 mars Covid19 : prévisions cas confirmés en France Les données des cas confirmés de 04/03/200 à 17/03/2020 sont analysés de façon à obtenir le total ultime avec la technique dite de Linéarisation d’Hubbert, où l’extrapolation linéaire du journalier/cumulé en pourcentage versus cumulé vers le zéro indique l’ultime Les courbes utilisées par Hubbert la fonction logistique (courbe en S) et sa déviré courbe en cloche. Pour ceux qui ne retiennent que la croissance exponentielle (doubler en quelques jours) ils oublient qu’après le pic la décroissance est exponentielle (diviser par 2 en quelques jours). Pour la France L’ultime est de 16 000
Pour cet ultime la France est au pic
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
jour
nalie
r/cu
mul
é %
cumulé
covid19: HL cas confirmés France 04/03-17/03/2020
jour/cum%5 derniers joursLinéaire (5 derniers jours)
Jean Laherrere 18/03/2020
2
Pour le Grand Est l’ultime est de 3000
Le Grand Est est au pic pour cet ultime
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
04/03
/2020
06/03
/2020
08/03
/2020
10/03
/2020
12/03
/2020
14/03
/2020
16/03
/2020
18/03
/2020
20/03
/2020
22/03
/2020
24/03
/2020
26/03
/2020
28/03
/2020
30/03
/2020
01/04
/2020
03/04
/2020
05/04
/2020
07/04
/2020
09/04
/2020
cum
ulé
jour
nalie
r
covid19: cas confirmés France
journalier
U = 16 000
cumulé
U =16 000
Jean Laherrere 18/03/2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
jour
nalie
r/cu
mul
é %
cumulé
covid19: HL cas confirmés Grand Est 04/03-17/03/2020
jour/cum%5 derniers joursLinéaire (5 derniers jours)
Jean Laherrere 18/03/2020
3
Pour l’Ile de France HL ne donne pas une intersection avec le zéro et nous avons pris un ultime a 4000 (flèche) de façon visuelle
Pour un ultime de 4000 l’Ile de France est aussi au pic
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
04/03
/2020
06/03
/2020
08/03
/2020
10/03
/2020
12/03
/2020
14/03
/2020
16/03
/2020
18/03
/2020
20/03
/2020
22/03
/2020
24/03
/2020
26/03
/2020
28/03
/2020
30/03
/2020
01/04
/2020
03/04
/2020
05/04
/2020
cum
ulé
jour
nalie
r
covid19: cas confirmés Grand Est
journalierU = 3000cumuléU = 3000
Jean Laherrere 18/03/2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
jour
nalie
r/cu
mul
é %
cumulé
covid19: HL cas confirmés Ile de France 04/03-17/03/2020
jour/cum%5 derniers joursLinéaire (5 derniers jours)
Jean Laherrere 18/03/2020
4
Pour les Hauts de France l’ultime est de 750
Les hauts de France seraient aussi au pic
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
04/03
/2020
06/03
/2020
08/03
/2020
10/03
/2020
12/03
/2020
14/03
/2020
16/03
/2020
18/03
/2020
20/03
/2020
22/03
/2020
24/03
/2020
26/03
/2020
28/03
/2020
30/03
/2020
01/04
/2020
03/04
/2020
05/04
/2020
07/04
/2020
09/04
/2020
cum
ulé
jour
nalie
r
covid19: cas confirmés Ile de France
journalierU = 4000cumuléU = 4000
Jean Laherrere 18/03/2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
jour
nalie
r/cu
mul
é %
cumulé
covid19: HL cas confirmés Hauts de France 04/03-17/03/2020
jour/cum%6 derniers joursLinéaire (6 derniers jours)
Jean Laherrere 18/03/2020
5
Conclusion L’extrapolation dite d’Hubbert permet d’estimer l’ultime des cas confirmés et de prévoir le pic. Cette estimation est basée seulement sur les 5 ou 6 derniers jours ; on peut espérer que dans quelques jours le technique sera confirmée.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
04/03
/2020
06/03
/2020
08/03
/2020
10/03
/2020
12/03
/2020
14/03
/2020
16/03
/2020
18/03
/2020
20/03
/2020
22/03
/2020
24/03
/2020
26/03
/2020
28/03
/2020
30/03
/2020
01/04
/2020
03/04
/2020
05/04
/2020
07/04
/2020
09/04
/2020
cum
ulé
jour
nalie
r
covid19: cas confirmés Hauts de France
journalierU = 750cumuléU =750
Jean Laherrere 18/03/2020
6
-deaths by countries and for the world Covid19 HL forecast update with data 17 March 2020 World World covid19 deaths is modelled (visual guess) with 2 peaks H1 (China) and H2 (world excluding China) forecasting an ultimate of about 16 000 deaths
Below each country is modelled using the ultimate from the HL, even if chaotic China HL is close to zero and trends to 3300
Daily death has strongly declined after a peak at 150 and is today around 10 deaths close to end
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
01/01
/2020
08/01
/2020
15/01
/2020
22/01
/2020
29/01
/2020
05/02
/2020
12/02
/2020
19/02
/2020
26/02
/2020
04/03
/2020
11/03
/2020
18/03
/2020
25/03
/2020
01/04
/2020
08/04
/2020
15/04
/2020
22/04
/2020
29/04
/2020
daily
dea
ths
tota
l dea
ths
date
world coronavirus covid-19: daily & total deaths with 2 peaks
total deaths
past + cum H2
daily deaths
H1
H2
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020 source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
daily
/tota
l%
total deaths
covid19: HL of China daily deaths 13 feb-17 march
daily/total%
27Feb-17Mar
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
7
World excluding China HL trends towards 16000 (giving a world total of 19 000 compared with 16 000 in our first graph)
World excluding China will peak on 21 March around 1000 deaths
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
15/01/2020 04/02/2020 24/02/2020 15/03/2020 04/04/2020 24/04/2020
tota
l dea
ths
daily
dea
ths
date
covid19: China daily & total deaths
China daily death
U = 3300
China total death
U = 3300
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
daily
/tota
l%
total deaths
covid19: HL of world excluding China daily deaths 13 feb-17 march
daily/total%
last 8 days
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
8
Italy HL trends towards 5000 but is a little chaotic
Daily deaths will peak now
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
22/01/2020 11/02/2020 02/03/2020 22/03/2020 11/04/2020
tota
l dea
ths
daily
dea
ths
date
covid19: world excluding China daily & total deaths
China daily deathexcl China daily deathsU = 16 000excl China total deathsU = 16 000
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
daily
/tota
l%
total deaths
covid19: HL of Italy daily deaths 13 feb-17 march
daily/total%
last 8 days
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
9
https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/17/news/coronavirus_il_picco_secondo_gli_esperti_dovrebbe_essere_il_25_marzo-251541010/?refresh_ce Covid19 peak is forecasted on 23-25 march by universita di Genova France HL trends towards 450, but is chaotic
With an ultimate of 450 daily death will peak in few days
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
22/01/2020 11/02/2020 02/03/2020 22/03/2020 11/04/2020
tota
l dea
ths
daily
dea
ths
date
covid19: Italy daily & total deaths
China daily deathItaly daily deathsU = 5000Italy total deathsU = 5000
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
daily
/tota
l%
total deaths
covid19: HL of France daily deaths 13 feb-17 march
daily/total%
last 9 days
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
10
Iran HL is a very good linear trend towards 3200
With an ultimate of 3200 daily deaths will peak on 22 March
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
22/01/2020 11/02/2020 02/03/2020 22/03/2020 11/04/2020
tota
l dea
ths
daily
dea
ths
date
covid19: France daily & total deaths
France daily deaths
U = 450
France total deaths
U = 450
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
daily
/tota
l%
total deaths
covid19: HL of Iran daily deaths 13 feb-17 march
daily/total%
last 10 days
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
11
Spain HL is chaotic and trends towards 3200
Daily deaths will peak on 22 March around 300 deaths
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
22/01/2020 11/02/2020 02/03/2020 22/03/2020 11/04/2020
tota
l dea
ths
daily
dea
ths
date
covid19: Iran daily & total deaths China daily deathIran daily deathsU = 3200Iran total deathsU = 3200
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200
daily
/tota
l%
total deaths
covid19: HL of Spain daily deaths 13-17 march
daily/total%
last 7 days
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
12
UK HL of UK daily deaths (last 4 days) trends towards 100, when present total is 71: it looks unlikely. But UK policy on covid19 with herd immunity is strange should lead to a higher value
An ultimate of 100 means that UK daily death is on decline; it hard to believe!
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
22/01/2020 11/02/2020 02/03/2020 22/03/2020 11/04/2020
tota
l dea
ths
daily
dea
ths
date
covid19: Spain daily & total deaths
Spain daily deaths
U = 1400
Spain total deaths
U = 1400
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
daily
/tota
l%
total deaths
covid19: HL of UK daily deaths 13-17 march
daily/total%
last 4 days
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
13
South Korea Number of covid19 cases peaked on 29 February from Statista
HL of daily deaths is chaotic but trends towards 110
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22/01/2020 11/02/2020 02/03/2020 22/03/2020 11/04/2020
tota
l dea
ths
daily
dea
ths
date
covid19: UK daily & total deaths
UK dailyU = 100UK totalU = 100
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
14
Daily deaths with an ultimate of 110 peaked around 10 March, different from the peak of cases, but daily deaths have oscillated from 0 to 6 about 6 times = strange!
Conclusion Apart Iran, HLs are still erratic and needs to stabilize to get better forecasts of peak. However as stated in previous papers, peak time of every country varies within a short range despite the large variation of estimates from HLs
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
daily
/tota
l%
total deaths
covid19: HL of South Korea daily deaths 13-17 march
daily/total%last 13 daysLinéaire (last 13 days)
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
22/01/2020 11/02/2020 02/03/2020 22/03/2020 11/04/2020
tota
l dea
ths
daily
dea
ths
date
covid19: South Korea daily & total deaths
South Korea dailyU = 110South Korea totalU = 110
Jean Laherrere 18 March 2020
