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8/3/2019 La dissuasion au XXIe sicle - Note d'analyse gopolitique n50
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AJEQAhgtpebfpeJeqEboeu}Qvpnvck~ueqBhve me`fhgnfnkpe fnbnj{qe chthjkvk~uefe jEQA Cpebh`je >0 onbykep 04>0
54
Jn f kqqunq khb nu ] ]K e q ka jeJnpge buajnkpe n'v'ejje ebahpe ub qebq 8
Fetukq je fkqahupq fe Tpncue fe @npnal H`ngn thup ub "ghbfe qnbq npge
buajnkpe" -044;+* je ahbaetv fe fkqqunqkhb vebf vpe pegkq eb anuqe Jeq
npcugebvq mhqvkjeq qhbv bhg`peu} ? qhb ahv qepnkv vpht jey -je buajnkpe
gkjkvnkpe ipnbnkq petpqebve tjuq fe >5 % feq apfkvq f~uktegebv feq
npgeq+* ejje be qepnkv tjuq nfntve nu} gebnaeq fu ]]Ke qkaje ev hiipkpnkv
gge jn thqqk`kjkv fub uqnce vepphpkqve* ~unbf qn tphgeqqe fnthanj{tqe
ahbqvkvuepnkv ube te fe Fnghajq qup jmugnbkv nuvnbv ~uube qhupae
fkbqvn`kjkv thup jn tjnbve Je f`nv eqv jhkb fvpe nbhfkb anp kj vhuame*
fnbq ub ahbve}ve `ufcvnkpe fkiakje* je aup fe jn thjkvk~ue fe fiebqe
feq cpnbfeq tukqqnbaeq Nyea qhb Fkavkhbbnkpe fe jn fkqqunqkhb* Tmkjktte
Shfln'Cnjjkeb qe tphthqe fe "ahgtjvep ube kbihpgnvkhb fo vpq pkame*
qnbq nyhkp jn tpvebvkhb ftukqep ub fhqqkep ~uk gpkvepn thup jhbcvegtq
ebahpe ub qukyk vhuohupq tjuq nvvebvki"* hiipnbv nkbqk ube jeavupe uvkje jn
ahgtpmebqkhb fu pje ev fu ihbavkhbbegebv fe jn fhavpkbe fe fkqqunqkhb
Tnp Oenb'Ipnbhkq
I kh p kbn
Fkpeaveupfe jEahje Qutpkeupefe Ahggepaefe Cpebh`je
Jng`kynjebae ~uk tpynuv ykq''ykq fe jn fkqqunqkhb buajnkpe beqv tnq bhuyejje qeqf`uvq eb Ipnbae* jnpge buajnkpe bn inkv ahbqebquq bk fnbq jeq tnpvkq thjkvk~ueq* bk nuqekb feq npgeq* bk fnbq jn ahggubnuv qakebvk~ue fnjhpq* ev n f vpe kgthqe tnp jechuyepbegebv Jhpq fu jnbaegebv fu tphoev Gnbmnvvnb* jeq Ngpkankbq hbv ahbbu feqhtthqkvkhbq qkgkjnkpeq Kj beb fegeupe tnq ghkbq ~ue jnpge buajnkpe n tphihbfgebv`hujeyepq jnpv fe jn cueppe* eb tepgevvnbv fe fkqqunfep pejjegebv ub nfyepqnkpefnckp Thup jn tpegkpe ihkq fnbq jMkqvhkpe* qn antnakv fe feqvpuavkhb qnbq ~ukynjebv evjkgthqqk`kjkv fnfntvnvkhb mugnkbe qeq eiievq hbv pegtjna jkbaepvkvufe fe jn finkvehu fe jn ykavhkpe tnp jn aepvkvufe fe jnthanj{tqe Nkbqk ihbf* je ahbaetv fe fkqqunqkhbpethqe ebahpe nuohupfmuk qup je qeuj buajnkpe gkjkvnkpe
Je ahbaetv fe f kqqunqkhb buajn k pe
Jn jhauvkhb "fkqqunqkhb" ykebv fu yep`e fkqqunfep* aeqv''fkpe fu jnvkb fkqqunfepe ~ukqkcbke tepqunfep Eb qvpnvcke gkjkvnkpe* jn fkqqunqkhb eqv nkbqk ae ~uk eqv fe bnvupe* tnp qnqeuje e}kqvebae* tepqunfep ub nfyepqnkpe ~ue vhuve ncpeqqkhb hu vhuve thupqukve fubencpeqqkhb qepnkv ynkbe Thup Mebpk Lkqqkbcep* jn fkqqunqkhb eqv fhba " jn vebvnvkye inkve thupegtamep ub nfyepqnkpe fnfhtvep ube aepvnkbe jkcbe fnavkhb eb juk htthqnbv feq pkq~ueq ~ukjuk tnpnkqqebv qnbq ahggube gequpe nyea jeq cnkbq eqahgtvq" Je cbpnj Juakeb Thkpkep*jub feq tpkbaktnu} vmhpkakebq buajnkpeq ipnbnkq* tpakqe ~ue "jnpv fe fkqqunfep beqvtnq jnpv fe ahbvpnkbfpe ' ahgge jn cueppe ' gnkq aejuk fe ahbynkbape " Fq jhpq* je ahbaetvfe fkqqunqkhb pethqe qup jn ahggubkanvkhb ev jn fknjeavk~ue* aeqv''fkpe qup jnpv fe jn
tepqunqkhb Gnkq thup tepqunfep* ebahpe inuv'kj vpe apfk`je
Je cbpnj Thkpkep pfukv jn apfk`kjkv fe jn fkqqunqkhb buajnkpe feu} inaveupq Kj qnckvfub ahbaetv pethqnbv tpkbaktnjegebv qup ub inaveup tq{amhjhck~ue ' jn teup ' ev qup
Jnpge buajnkpe n
tphihbfgebv `hujeyepq
jnpv fe jn cueppe eb
pegtjnnbv jkbaepvkvufe*
aejje fe jn finkve hu fe jn
ykavhkpe* tnp jn aepvkvufe
fe jnthanj{tqe* ev nkbqk
fkqqunfep pejjegebv ub
nfyepqnkpe fnckp
AJEQ ' Jeq ebvpevkebq chthjkvk~ueq `kgeqvpkejq fu fkpeaveup ' b 54 ' >0 onbykep 04>0 ' sss"cpebh`je'eg"ahg ' > '
8/3/2019 La dissuasion au XXIe sicle - Note d'analyse gopolitique n50
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ub inaveup veambk~ue ' ube antnakv fe petpqnkjjeq fkqtphthpvkhbbe Aeqv jn tpeuyenype fu qeahbf inaveup ~uk tepgev fkbfukpe je tpegkep Gnkq ejje eqv veambk~uegebv"apfk`je qk jeq q{qvgeq fe ihpaeq ' q{qvgeq fnpgeq -amnpceq ev yeaveupq+* jeup ebykphbbegebv-thqve fe vkp* jknkqhbq veambk~ueq ev fe ahggnbfegebv+ ' qhbv antn`jeq fe tphfukpe ebtepgnbebae qup je qnbavunkpe fub yebvuej ncpeqqeup" feq fhggnceq kbnaaetvn`jeq Jnpgebuajnkpe tphtpegebv fkve eqv nkbqk kbfkqqhakn`je feq antnakvq fe jnbaegebv jhbcuethpve Aeqv thup~uhk jn Ahpe fu Bhpf ahgge jKpnb hbv jnba ahbahgkvnggebv jeupq tphcpnggeq buajnkpeq je fyejhttegebv fe gkqqkjeq `njkqvk~ueq tphtpeq egthpvep feq vveq buajnkpeq -gkqqkjeq Vnethfhbc ahpebq ev Qmnmn` kpnbkebq+ Jeq
veambhjhckeq baeqqnkpeq qhbv qkgkjnkpeq aejjeq fu fhgnkbe qtnvknj Jeq tpegkpeqiuqeq puqqeq ev ngpkankbeq qhbv fnkjjeupq fkpeavegebv kqqueq feq gkqqkjeq buajnkpeqkbvepahbvkbebvnu} aevve ahgthqnbve* fhpfpe veambk~ue ev vnavk~ue* fe jn fkqqunqkhb"qnohuve ube nuvpe* fhpfpe qvpnvck~ue ev thjkvk~ue ? jn apfk`kjkv tq{amhjhck~ue " Aejn qkcbke~ue jeq kbqvnbaeq thjkvk~ueq fhkyebv qe ghbvpep iepgegebv pqhjueq tnqqep jnave ebanq famea fe jkbvkgkfnvkhb Aevve fkgebqkhb be teuv qhuiipkp nuaube ~ukyh~ue* qhuqtekbe fe fkq~unjkep je tpkbakte gge fe jn fkqqunqkhb buajnkpe Fh jkgthpvnbae feahggubk~uep jn ihkq qup qeq antnakvq veambk~ueq ev qup qn fhavpkbe fegtjhk
Jn fkqqunqkhb* yhke fe jn tukqqnba e
Jn fkqqunqkhb beqv tnq nu qepykae fu qeuj huvkj gkjkvnkpe Ejje eqv ihbfngebvnjegebvub kbqvpugebv thjkvkah'fktjhgnvk~ue Ejje eqv nu aebvpe fub oeu fnjjknbae qu`vkj ev
fnipgnvkhb fe tukqqnbae Jn fktjhgnvke ' ~uk n thup gkqqkhb tpegkpe fe tpyebkp jncueppe qnbq uqnce fe jn ihpae ' fkqthqe nyea jnpge buajnkpe fub ihpgkfn`je gh{ebfkbffuebaep jeq tphaeqquq fe fakqkhb Aejn iuv tnp e}egtje je anq eb >;6;* jhpq~uejeq Qhykvk~ueq pebv e}tjhqep jeup tpegkpe `hg`e nvhgk~ue Inae nu} feu} Cpnbfq*amn~ue vnv qeqv pnbc qhuq jn tphveavkhb fe jub hu fe jnuvpe thup `bakep fe qhb"tnpntjuke buajnkpe" Jn Ipnbae n inkv je amhk} ahbvpnkpe fube gnbaktnvkhb tnpvkejjefe ae tpkbakte fe vuvejje Kj eb eqv fe gge thup bhg`pe fe tukqqnbaeq pckhbnjeq~uk amepamebv qnipgep -Ec{tve* Jk`{e ev Nipk~ue fu Quf fnbq ub tnqq paebv* Kpnbev Ahpe fu Bhpf ebahpe nuohupfmuk+ Jnpge buajnkpe tepgev eb eiiev fna~upkpub qvnvuv kgthpvnbv qup jn qabe kbvepbnvkhbnje Ejje hiipe n gkbkgn ube fkqqunqkhb fkve"fu ink`je nu ihpv" hu "e}kqvebvkejje" -Vmkepp{ fe Ghbv`pknj+ Aeqv je ingeu} "thuyhkpcnjkqnveup fe jnvhge"* aeqv''fkpe ~ue vhuq jeq vnvq hbv feq thkbvq fe yujbpn`kjkv-thtujnvkhbq* aebvpeq fe fakqkhb* bufq fe ahggubkanvkhbq+ qup jeq~uejq teuv
qnttu{ep ube fkqqunqkhb buajnkpe* gge pufkgebvnkpe Aevve fkgebqkhb fktjhgnvk~uefe jn fkqqunqkhb ohue ebahpe tjekbegebv qhb pje* ahgge eb vghkcbe jnaahpf ipnbah'`pkvnbbk~ue fe 04>4 ~uk tpyhkv ub tnpvnce fe gh{ebq baeqqnkpeq nu gnkbvkeb fe jnapfk`kjkv fe jn fkqqunqkhb ipnbnkqe ev nbcjnkqe Tjuq paeggebv* b 04>>* ub vmkbl'vnblipnbnkq n yh~u jn thqqk`kjkv fe apep ube ahggubnuv fe fkqqunqkhb ebvpe jn Ipnbaeev jNjjegncbe* qkcbe vnbck`je fu pnttphamegebv nbbhba ebvpe jeq feu} tn{q @pei*je buajnkpe fe fiebqe peqve ub jgebv aebvpnj feq bchaknvkhbq fe bkyenu thjkvkah'qvpnvck~ue
" jpe buajnkpe* jn tukqqnbae fub vnv be pethqe tjuq qeujegebv qup qn tukqqnbae ahbhgk~ue* chcpntmk~ue hu fghcpntmk~ue* gnkq qup jeq antnakvq veambhjhck~ueq ~uk juk tepgevvebvffkep ube ihpae fe ipntte buajnkpe" pantkvuje Tmkjktte Shfln'Cnjjkeb Eb eiiev* thup febhg`peu} tn{q* jn thqqeqqkhb fe jnpge buajnkpe fegeupe ynjhpkqe* ahbipnbv jn ihkqube qvnvupe kbvepbnvkhbnje ev ube anpve ykvnje eb gnvkpe fe fiebqe Jn fkqqunqkhb qepnkvje qeuj ganbkqge tphtpe nqqupep jkbftebfnbae bnvkhbnje* yhkpe inyhpkqep jn tnk} evj~ukjk`pe feq tukqqnbaeq tnp je "thuyhkp cnjkqnveup fe jnvhge" Jn fgnpame fub tn{qahgge jKpnb fhkv nuqqk qe ahgtpebfpe qhuq aev nbcje Qe thqe fq jhpq jn ~ueqvkhb fe jntphjkipnvkhb* aeqv''fkpe fe jn gujvktjkanvkhb fe tn{q fvebveupq fub npqebnj buajnkpeJn thqqeqqkhb* hu bhb* fe jnpge qutpge eqv fnuvnbv tjuq fnavunjkv ~ue jHBU tekbefetukq qn apnvkhb nqqupep je pcjegebv tnak~ue feq fkiipebvq vnvk~ueq
Jn f k i a k je ~ueqv khb fe jn t ph j k i pn v khb bua jn k pe
Kj e}kqve feu} ihpgeq fe tphjkipnvkhb tpykebv Tmkjktte Shfln'Cnjjkeb ? jube mhpkzhbvnjeev jnuvpe yepvkanje Jn tpegkpe "fqkcbe jnaaeqqkhb fub bhuyej vnv jn antnakv buajnkpe"vnbfkq ~ue jn qeahbfe "qnttjk~ue ube tukqqnbae buajnkpe ~uk fyejhtte qhb npqebnjeb jn fhvnbv fe bhuyejjeq npgeq ev fe bhuyenu} yeaveupq" Jeiihpv fe jn ahggubnuvkbvepbnvkhbnje qe ahbaebvpe fetukq jn b fe jn cueppe iphkfe qup jn ahbvpe'tphjkipnvkhbmhpkzhbvnje Jn bnjkv eqv fykvep ~uub vnv tukqqe gnvpkqep jn veambhjhcke buajnkpegkjkvnkpe ev vpe nkbqk eb gequpe fe `hujeyepqep jeq ~ukjk`peq pckhbnu} cnpnbvkq tnp jeqtukqqnbaeq buajnkpeq hiakejjeq -vnvq'Ubkq* Puqqke* Ipnbae* Cpnbfe'@pevncbe ev Amkbe+
Jnpge buajnkpe
tphtpegebv fkve eqv
kbfkqqhakn`je feq antnakvq
fe jnbaegebv jhbcue
thpve ? jeq veambhjhckeq
baeqqnkpeq qhbv qkgkjnkpeq
aejjeq fu fhgnkbe qtnvknj
Jn fkqqunqkhb beqv
tnq nu qepykae fu qeuj
huvkj gkjkvnkpe Ejje eqv
ihbfngebvnjegebv ub
kbqvpugebv thjkvkah'
fktjhgnvk~ue Ejje eqv nu
aebvpe fub oeu fnjjknbae
qu`vkj ev fniikpgnvkhb
fe tukqqnbae* peqvnbv
ub jgebv aebvpnj feq
bchaknvkhbq fe bkyenu
thjkvkah'qvpnvck~ue
Fetukq jn ikb fe jn cueppe
iphkfe* jeiihpv fe jn
ahggubnuv kbvepbnvkhbnje
qe ahbaebvpe qup jn "ahbvpe'
tphjkipnvkhb mhpkzhbvnje" ?
ykvep ~uub bhuyej Evnv
naafe nu aju` feq
tukqqnbaeq buajnkpeq
AJEQ ' Jeq ebvpevkebq chthjkvk~ueq `kgeqvpkejq fu fkpeaveup ' b 54 ' >0 onbykep 04>0 ' sss"cpebh`je'eg"ahg ' 0 '
8/3/2019 La dissuasion au XXIe sicle - Note d'analyse gopolitique n50
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Aeqv eqqebvkejjegebv tnp jn fktjhgnvke ~ue qhpcnbkqe jn ahbvpe'tphjkipnvkhb Cpe tnpjHBU* ejje pethqe qup jNcebae kbvepbnvkhbnje fe jbepcke nvhgk~ue -NKEN+ ev je vpnkvfe bhb'tphjkipnvkhb -VBT+ fe >;9= Je tpkbakte eqv ~ue jeq vnvq qkcbnvnkpeq fu VBTqebcncebv pebhbaep nu buajnkpe gkjkvnkpe eb amnbce fube nkfe fyejhttep jeupqantnakvq fnbq je fhgnkbe akykj Fetukq >;;0* je pckge fe ahbvpje qeqv pebihpa* nyeajn thqqk`kjkv fkbqteavkhbq qup jeq qkveq quqteavq Eb anq famea* feq gequpeq ahepakvkyeqteuyebv vpe gkqeq eb heuype* ahgge eb nvveqvebv jeq eg`npchq veambhjhck~ueq evahbhgk~ueq jebahbvpe fe jKpnb ev fe jn Ahpe fu Bhpf ' ~unbf jn ahggubnuvkbvepbnvkhbnje be qe qnvkqinkv tnq fnavkhbq tjuq fkpeaveq ahgge je pnkf kqpnjkeb ahbvpe
jn aebvpnje kpnlkebbe fHqkpnl ->;=>+ Ae q{qvge fkbvepfkavkhb n jhbcvegtq ihbavkhbbnqqez ahppeavegebv* tukq~ue qeujq vphkq bhuyenu} vnvq -Kbfe* Tnlkqvnb ev Ahpe fuBhpf+ hbv naaf jn antnakv buajnkpe gkjkvnkpe fetukq qn gkqe eb tjnae Ae ~uk thpvenuohupfmuk je bhg`pe fe tukqqnbaeq buajnkpeq beui eb kbajunbv Kqpnj* ~uk n fyejhttqeq antnakvq nynbv >;9=* qnbq peahbbnkqqnbae hiakejje
Jeq npcugebvq eb inyeup fe jn tphjkipnvkhb* tpqebve ahgge ube "fghapnvkqnvkhb"* begnb~uebv tnq aetebfnbv ? qnbavunpkqnvkhb fu veppkvhkpe bnvkhbnj* tpeqvkce kbvepbnvkhbnj-puqqkve veambk~ue ev qakebvk~ue+* kbftebfnbae qvpnvck~ue* jeykep fktjhgnvk~ue Aeqnpcugebvq vphuyebv ub amh cpnbfkqqnbv qup ihbf fe pebihpaegebv fu gujvkjnvpnjkqgeev fe p~ukjk`pnce feq pntthpvq fe ihpae kbvepbnvkhbnu} vnbv fhbb jeq eboeu} nqqhakq jn thqqeqqkhb fe jnpge buajnkpe* thup ahg`keb fe vegtq ebahpe je fkqthqkvki hbuqkebfe ahbvpe'tphjkipnvkhb fhbbepn'v'kj qnvkqinavkhb* ev qepn'v'kj naaetv tnp jeq tukqqnbaeq
gepcebveq 8
Thup njjep tjuq jhkb ? Fkavkhbbnkpe fe jn fkqqunqkhb* tnp Tmkjktte Shfln'Cnjjkeb* Gnpkbeqfkvkhbq* 133 t"* 65 < Feq qvpnvckeq buajnkpeq* tnp je cbpnj Juakeb Thkpkep* fkvkhbqAhgtje}e* 649 t" -ub cpnbf ajnqqk~ue nuohupfmuk tukq+"
AJEQ ' Jeq ebvpevkebq chthjkvk~ueq `kgeqvpkejq fu fkpeaveup ' b 54 ' >0 onbykep 04>0 ' sss"cpebh`je'eg"ahg ' 1 '
Fetukq 0443* Cpebh`je ahje feGnbncegebv n kbvphfukv fnbq qhbaupquq ub ebqekcbegebv fe ch'thjkvk~ue" Aevve kbkvknvkye bhynvpkaeqnttuke bhvnggebv qup jn ahbyka'vkhb ~ue* inae ub ghbfe ahg'tje}e ev eb guvnvkhb tepgnbebve*jebvpetpkqe ev jeq gnbncepq hbv e'qhkb fu tpkqge fe jn chthjkvk~uethup qe thqkvkhbbep* tpebfpe jeq`hbbeq fakqkhbq ev ebcncep jeqqvpnvckeq nf~unveq"
Kj qnckv vhuveihkq fube nttphamehpkckbnje fe jn chthjkvk~ue" vpn'yepq qeq ebqekcbegebvq ev qeqnavkykvq fe peamepame* Cpebh`jeahje fe Gnbncegebv ebykqnceaejje'ak qhuq ub nbcje htpnvkhbbej"Jh`oeavki eqv fhiipkp nu} fakfeupqahbhgk~ueq jeq huvkjq fnkfe jn fakqkhb baeqqnkpeq thup bn'ykcuep fnbq ub ebykphbbegebv nuqekb fu~uej jeq pkq~ueq ev jeq ht'thpvubkvq yhjuebv qnbq aeqqe"
Nyea jn tu`jkanvkhb feq bhveqAJEQ* Cpebh`je Eahje fe Gnbn'cegebv qhumnkve tnpvncep* amn~ueqegnkbe* nyea qeq tnpvebnkpeq* jeipukv fe qeq peamepameq eb gnvkpefe chthjkvk~ue"Ejje qhumnkve nuqqk qvkgujep jeqamnbceq fkfeq ev jeq tnpvnceqfe}tpkebae" Anp* fnbq je ghbfe~uk eqv je bvpe* aeqv nuqqk fe jnahbiphbvnvkhb feq ykqkhbq ~ue tph'ykebv jn tepihpgnbae"
Thu p ~uhk AJEQ 8 AhgtpebfpeJeq Eboeu} Qvpnvck~ueq
Pevphuyez fnuvpeq nbnj{qeq chthjkvk~ueq qup sss"fktjhse`"ahg ev qup sss"cpebh`je'eg"ahg(cehthjkvk~ue"
E]VPNKV ?
Fe jn ahggubkanvkhb feq fhavpkbeq fe fkqqunqkhb fnbq jn qvpnvcke feq Evnvq ? "Kj b{ n tnq fe fkqqunqkhb qnbqahggubkanvkhb Tnp'fej je qeapev ~uk qnttjk~ue baeqqnkpegebv jn ahbaetvkhb feq npgeq* jnvhge gkjkvnkpe eqv ub ghbfe ~ukahggubk~ue `enuahut* ahbohbavkhb fube yhjhbv thjkvk~ue ev fe jn tpnvk~ue tphtpe amn~ue bnvkhb buajnkpe Vpq vhiie nu}vnvq'Ubkq ev eb Ipnbae* jkbihpgnvkhb qeqv paeggebv fyejhtte eb Puqqke Eb ahgtnpnkqhb* je Ph{nuge'Ubk hiipe ube kgnce tjuqfkqapve Bhuyej naveup fe jn tjnbve buajnkpe* jKbfe niame ube ahggubkanvkhb kbvebqe qup qn qvpnvcke ev qeq tphcpnggeq ~uethpve ube tpeqqe vpq n`hbfnbve Jn Amkbe peqve thup qn tnpv vpq htn~ue* gnkq niame qeq antnakvq nyea hqvebvnvkhb* fnbq jeqthkpfeb pevkpep nfgkpnvkhb ev apnkbve" -Tmkjktte Shfln'Cnjjkeb* ht akv+