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MAUVAIS APPARIEMENT DES COMPÉTENCES DANS LES PAYS DE L’OCDE : L’ENQUÊTE PIAAC ET LES INDICATEURS SKILLS FOR JOBS
Glenda Quintini Head of skills unit Skills and Employability Division Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
Colloque DARES Les tensions sur le marché du travail Paris, 18 décembre 2018
Outline
1. How skills matter vs education 2. Which skills matter 3.Ensuring a good match
1. How skills matter vs occupations 2. Which skills matter where
1. How focusing on skills helps the #FutureofSkills debate
2013
A few facts about the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC)
2016 2018
What is PIAAC
Household survey
38 countries and regions
21 EU countries and regions
Cycle 1: 3 rounds
5K to 30K observations
What we measure directly
Literacy
Numeracy
Digital/Adaptive Problem solving
Reading/Numeracy components
The background questionnaire
How skills are distributed
How people build their skills
How people use their skills
Which benefits skills bring to people
100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400
Lower than upper secondary
Upper secondary
Tertiary
Score
Italy
100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400
Lower than upper secondary
Upper secondary
Tertiary
Score
Japan
25th
percentile
Mean and .95 conf idence interv al f or
mean
75th
percentile
Japanese high school graduates have literacy skills comparable to
those of Italian tertiary graduates
Education Skills
05
1015202530354045
High levels oftrust
High levels ofpoliticalefficacy
Participationin volunteer
activities
High levels ofhealth
High wages
What people know has a major impact on economic and non-economic outcomes
Literacy and positive outcomes
Percentage-point difference between Level 4 or 5 and Level 1 or below
How skills matter…
0
5
10
15
20
25
Years of education Proficiency in literacy
…on top of education
%
Wage returns
How people use their skills is key too, on top of what they know
Wage and satisfaction returns to education, skills proficiency and skills use
Percentage change in wages
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Use of reading atwork
Use of ICT skills atwork
Problem solvingskills at work
Skills proficiency Skills use at work Years of education
Source: Employment Outlook (2016)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Use of reading at work Use of ICT skills atwork
Problem solving skillsat work
Skills proficiency Skills use at work Years of education
Percentage-point change in job satisfaction
Developing the right skills is key
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012)
Incidence of Qualifications Mismatch
0 10 20 30 40 50
FranceIreland
England/N. Ireland (UK)Australia
CanadaSweden
JapanEstonia
ItalyAustriaNorwayAverage
GermanyNetherlands
United StatesKoreaSpain
FinlandFlanders (Belgium)
Czech RepublicDenmark
PolandSlovak Republic
Overqualification
Underqualification
0 5 10 15 20 25
IrelandSpain
AustriaCzech Republic
ItalyCyprus¹ ²
Slovak RepublicGermany
England/N. Ireland (UK)AverageNorway
JapanUnited States
KoreaDenmarkAustralia
EstoniaFlanders (Belgium)
SwedenFrance
CanadaFinlandPoland
NetherlandsOver-skilled
Under-skilled
Incidence of Skills Mismatch
Around 4/10 workers are mismatched by field of study
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
KoreaEngland/N. Ireland (UK)
ItalyAustralia
JapanUnited States
SpainFrance
Russian FederationIrelandPoland
Flanders (Belgium)Average
Czech RepublicSlovak Republic
CanadaEstonia
DenmarkNetherlands
SwedenNorwayAustria
GermanyFinland
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012)
Incidence of Field of Study Mismatch
Qualification, literacy and field-of-study mismatch affect wages
Percentage difference in wages
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Over-qualified(Ref: same qualifications, well-matched job)
Overskilled in literacy(Ref: same skills, well-matched job)
Field-of-study mismatched(Ref: same field of study, well-matched job)
%
Source: Skills Matter (OECD, 2016)
Literacy mismatch and productivity
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
POL CAN BEL SWE USA FRA NLDDNK JPN FIN EST KOR GBRNOR SVK AUS DEU AUT IRL CZE ESP ITA
Percentage of workers with skill mismatch (LHS)
Gains to labour productivity from reducing skill mismatch (RHS)
12
Household vs Employers Perspective
‘ ’
Not employed
Over-skilled Well-matched
Well-matched
Under-skilled
Over-skilled Under-skilled
Unfilled vacancies
Employed
‘ ’
Employed
Household survey (skills supply)
Employer survey (skills demand)
The Skills for Jobs database
Objective and comparable information
Wage
Employment
Unemployment
Hours worked
Under-qualification
Critical thinking
Complex problem solving
Engineering and technology
Arts and humanities
Deductive reasoning
Finger dexterity
Skills Shortages and surpluses
Knowledge
Abilities
Skills
13
…
1
2
Skills for Jobs Framework: from occupations to skills
Physics
ICT
Oral and Written comprehension
Critical Thinking
Complex problem Solving
32
3
33
31
Shortage
Surplus
What are the occupations in shortage?
0%20
%40
%60
%80
%10
0%
Finl
and
Net
herla
nds
Nor
way
Icel
and
Swed
enLu
xem
bour
gGe
rman
ySw
itzer
land
Belg
ium
New
Zea
land
Fran
ceIta
lyDe
nmar
kEs
toni
aIre
land
Aust
riaLi
thua
nia
OEC
DSp
ain
Latv
iaPo
rtug
alU
nite
d St
ates
Aust
ralia
Cana
daU
nite
d Ki
ngdo
mSl
oven
iaGr
eece
Czec
h Re
publ
icPo
land
Slov
ak R
epub
licHu
ngar
yCh
ileM
exic
oTu
rkey
Bulg
aria
Rom
ania
Arge
ntin
aSo
uth
Afric
aBr
azil
Peru
High-skilled Medium-skilled Low-skilled
Health-care Executives Teaching Science and Eng.
ICT prof. Personal Service
Building & trades
Metal & machinery
Handicraft & creatives
Agriculture
High-skill Medium-skill Low-skill
50%
Increasing shortages of high-level cognitive skills
-0,2
0-0
,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
Wri
tten
Exp
ress
ion
Ora
l Exp
ress
ion
Ded
ucti
ve R
easo
ning
Indu
ctiv
e R
easo
ning
Ora
l Com
preh
ensi
on
Flue
ncy
of I
deas
Ori
gina
lity
Mat
hem
atic
al R
easo
ning
Spee
ch R
ecog
niti
on
Cat
egor
y Fl
exib
ility
Num
ber
Faci
lity
Spee
d of
Clo
sure
Mem
oriz
atio
n
Sele
ctiv
e A
tten
tion
Vis
ualiz
atio
n
Exp
losi
ve S
tren
gth
Fing
er D
exte
rity
Peri
pher
al V
isio
n
Wri
st-F
inge
r Sp
eed
Spat
ial O
rien
tati
on
Res
pons
e O
rien
tati
on
Dep
th P
erce
ptio
n
Gro
ss B
ody
Equ
ilibr
ium
Rea
ctio
n Ti
me
Arm
-Han
d St
eadi
ness
Con
trol
Pre
cisi
on
Stam
ina
Man
ual D
exte
rity
Trun
k St
reng
th
Stat
ic S
tren
gth
First year Final year
Shor
tage
s
Surp
luse
s
2004 2015
Megatrends are changing the world of work...
Technological change
Population ageing
Globalisation
New forms of work
Changing skill supply and demand
The skills perspective is key to understand and
benefit from change
17
Perception and
manipulation
• Finger dexterity • Manual dexterity • Cramped space
Creative intelligence
• Originality • Fine arts
Social intelligence
• Social perceptiveness
• Negotiation • Persuasion • Assisting/caring
Individual vs occupational skills: key to assessing the risk of automation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Individual perspective on skill requirements yields more reasonable figuresHAN THOUGHT
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (2012, 2015)
Share of jobs at significant risk (50-70%) and of high risk (>70%) of automation
SIGNIFICANT RISK
HIGH RISK
However, many jobs will experience significant change
%
A major challenge for adult learning systems
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (2012, 2015)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Formal Non formal Informal
Key emerging policy messages
Better quality & use of skill needs data
Strengthening initial education
Improving adult learning
opportunities Promoting
HPWP
Better coordination & implementation
Key levers to foster an effective skill system
Matching by skills
Recognition of prior learning
Modular approaches to
lifelong learning
Contact: [email protected] Read more about our work:
Website: www.oecd.org/els Newsletter: www.oecd.org/els/newsletter Skills blog: https://oecdskillsandwork.wordpress.com/ Activities on training, skills and work: http://www.oecd.org/employment/skills-and-work.htm Skills for Jobs database:
22
Thank you