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Rating Action: Moody's downgrades Portugal to Ba2 with a negative outlook from Baa1

Global Credit Research - 05 Jul 2011

London, 05 July 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Portugal's long-term government bond ratings to Ba2 from Baa1 andassigned a negative outlook. Concurrently, Moody's has also downgraded the government's short-term debt rating to (P) Not-Prime from (P)Prime-2. Today's rating action concludes the review of Portugal's ratings initiated on 5 April 2011.

The following drivers prompted Moody's decision to downgrade and assign a negative outlook:

1. The growing risk that Portugal will require a second round of official financing before it can return to the private market, and the increasingpossibility that private sector creditor participation will be required as a pre-condition.

2. Heightened concerns that Portugal will not be able to fully achieve the deficit reduction and debt stabilisation targets set out in its loanagreement with the European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to the formidable challenges the country is facing inreducing spending, increasing tax compliance, achieving economic growth and supporting the banking system.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The first driver informing today's downgrade of Portugal's sovereign rating is the increasing probability that Portugal will not be able to borrow atsustainable rates in the capital markets in the second half of 2013 and for some time thereafter. Such a scenario would necessitate further rounds of official financing, and this may require the participation of existing investors in proportion to the size of their holdings of debt that willbecome due.

Moody's notes that European policymakers have grown increasingly concerned about the shifting of Greek debt held by private investors ontothe balance sheets of the official sector. Should a Greek restructuring become necessary at some future date, a shift from private to publicfinancing would imply that an increasingly large share of the cost would need to be borne by public sec tor creditors. To offset this risk, somepolicymakers have proposed that private sector participation should be a precondition for additional rounds of official lending to Greece.

Although Portugal's Ba2 rating indicates a much lower risk of restructuring than Greece's Caa1 rating, the EU's evolving approach to providingofficial support is an important factor for Portugal because it implies a rising risk that private sector participation could become a preconditionfor additional rounds of official lending to Portugal in the future as well. This development is significant not only because it increases theeconomic risks facing current investors, but also because it may discourage new private sector lending going forward and reduce the likelihoodthat Portugal will soon be able to regain market access on sustainable terms.

The second driver of today's rating action is Moody's concern that Portugal will not achieve the deficit reduction target -- to 3% by 2013 from9.1% last year as projected in the EU-IMF programme -- due to the formidable challenges the country is facing in reducing spending, increasingtax compliance, achieving economic growth and supporting the banking system. As a result, the country may be unable to s tabilise itsdebt/GDP ratio by 2013. Specifically, Moody's is concerned about the following sources of risk to the budget deficit projections:

1) The government's plans to restrain its spending may prove difficult to implement in full in sectors such as healthcare, state-owned

enterprises and regional and local governments.2) The government's plans to improve tax compliance (and, hence, generate the projected additional revenues) within the timeframe of the loanprogramme and, in combination with the factor above, may hinder the authorities' ability to reduce the budget deficit as targeted.

3) Economic growth may turn out to be weaker than expected, which would compromise the government's deficit reduction targets. Moreover,the anticipated fiscal consolidation and bank deleveraging would further exacerbate this. Consensus growth forecasts for the country have beenrevised downwards following the EU/IMF loan agreement. Even after these downward revisions, Moody's believes the risks to economic growthremain skewed to the downside.

4) There is a non-negligible possibility that Portugal's banking sector will require support beyond what is currently envisaged in the EU/IMF loanagreement. Any capital infusion into the banking system from the government would add additional debt to its balance sheet.

Moody's acknowledges that its earlier concerns about political uncertainty within Portugal itself have been largely resolved. Portugal's nationalelections on 5 June led to the formation of a viable government, both components of which had campaigned on the basis of supporting the EU-IMF loan agreement negotiated by the previous government. Moody's also acknowledges the policy initiatives announced at the end of Junedemonstrate the new Portuguese government's commitment to the programme. However, the downside risks (as detailed above) are such thatMoody's now considers the government long-term bond rating to be more appropriately positioned at Ba2. The negative outlook reflects theimplementation risks associated with the government's ambitious plans.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

Developments that could stabilise the outlook or lead to an upgrade would be a reduction in the likelihood that private sector participation mightbe required as precondition for future rounds of official support or evidence that Portugal is likely to achieve or exceed its deficit reductiontargets.

A further downgrade could be triggered by a significant slippage in the execution of the government's fiscal consolidation programme, a further downward revision of the country's economic growth prospects or an increased risk that further support requires private sector participation.

PREVIOUS RATING ACTION AND THE METHODOLOGY

Moody's previous rating action on Portugal was implemented on 5 April 2011, when the rating agency downgraded the government's long-term

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debt rating by one notch to Baa1 and placed it on review for further poss ible downgrade. It also downgraded the government's short-term debtrating to (P) Prime-2 from (P) Prime-1.

The principal methodology used in this rating was Sovereign Bond Ratings Methodology was published in September 2008. Please see theCredit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to

each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratingsare derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, thisannouncement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's c redit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcementprovides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assignedsubsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignmentof the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entitypage for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agents and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential andproprietary Moody's Investors Service information.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in ass igning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody'sconsiders to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in everyinstance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permiss ible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within thethree years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaningof each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may notbe available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is availableto it. Please see the ratings disc losure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

London Anthony ThomasVice President - Senior AnalystSovereign Risk GroupMoody's Investors Service Ltd.JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

New YorkBart OosterveldMD - Sovereign RiskSovereign Risk GroupMoody's Investors Service, Inc.JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's Investors Service Ltd.One Canada SquareCanary Wharf London E14 5FAUnited KingdomJOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456

SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

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