Situation Marche COM 12 Décembre 2013

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 12 December 2013

12 December 2013 2

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

EU Productions

Total Butter+ 1.2%

Skimmed-milk powder- 7.2%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder+ 8.3%

Cheese+ 1.3%

Fermented milk- 0.0%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 0.70%

-12% -7% -2% 3% 8%

Evo

luti

on

en

%

EU-28 Deliveries/Production developments(Apr-Sep13 compared to Apr-Sep 12)

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

Total Butter- 1.2%

Skimmed-milk powder- 7.9%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder+ 2.0%

Cheese+ 0.6%

Fermented milk- 0.4%

Cows' Milk Collected- 0.4%

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Evo

luti

on

en

% .

EU-28 Deliveries/Productions development(Jan-Sep 2013 compared to Jan-Sep 2012)


12 December 2013 3

-20.0% to -15.0%

-15.0% to -10.0%

-10.0% to -5.0%

-5.0% to +0.0%

+0.0% to +5.0%

+5.0% to +10.0%

+10.0% to +15.0%

+15.0% to +20.0%

+0.4

-0.7

-3.0

+1.3

+1.4

+5.7

+0.9

-1.5-0.9

-1.3

-4.0

+1.3

+0.9

-2.8

+1.7

-4.6

+3.9

-2.0

-0.4

-5.5

-2.7

-3.7

-2.9

+0.8

-0.3

-1.9


-18.5

12 December 2013 4

-24.0% to -18.0%

-18.0% to -12.0%

-12.0% to -6.0%

-6.0% to +0.0%

+0.0% to +6.0%

+6.0% to +12.0%

+12.0% to +18.0%

+18.0% to +24.0%

+2.2

-1.7

-3.3

+2.1

+2.1

+6.2

+1.9

-3.6+0.2

-0.1

-1.8

+1.9

+0.5

-3.3

+3.2

-6.4

0

+6.0

-1.9

-0.1

-5.1

-1.0

-4.4

-3.2

+1.9

+0.3

+0.4


-18.8

12 December 2013 5 Source: MS communications to Eurostat

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan

100

0 t

onne

s

Monthly Deliveries EU 28

2010 2011 2012 2013 average 2005-2009


12 December 2013 6

1 4

92

1 3

80

1 5

41

1 5

43

1 7

13

1 6

85

1 6

79

1 6

56

1 5

36

1 4

64

1 3

43

1 4

02

1 4

13

1 2

99

1 4

86

1 5

19

1 6

61

1 6

36

1 6

35

1 6

23

1 5

39

1 4

82

1 3

59

1 4

09

1 4

38

1 3

15

1 4

92

1 4

89

1 6

44

1 6

26

1 6

74

1 6

64

1 5

81

1 5

56

1 4

52

1 5

23

1 5

58

1 4

50

1 6

14

1 6

10

1 7

79

1 7

45

1 7

42

1 7

14

1 6

02

1 5

72

1 4

53

1 5

15

1 5

42

1 4

31

1 5

92

1 5

86

1 7

26

1 6

83

1 7

41

1 7

03

1 6

24

9 6

61

9 0

34

10 2

09

10 3

53

10 6

94

10 0

55

9 8

40

9 4

64

8 8

67

9 1

64

8 8

15

9 3

14

9 5

26

8 9

40

10 2

04

10 3

05

10 9

02

10 2

67

10 0

33

9 7

74

9 3

50

9 5

30

9 1

36

9 4

51

9 8

41

9 2

01

10 5

29

10 6

72

11 0

23

10 3

37

10 3

44

9 9

55

9 4

60

9 5

45

9 1

99

9 7

10

10 0

50

9 5

46

10 6

92

10 7

03

11 1

38

10 4

78

10 2

06

9 7

95

9 2

32

9 3

70

9 0

45

9 4

93

9 8

52

9 1

96

10 3

98

10 4

11

11 1

33

10 4

98

10 4

48

10 1

43

9 6

12

23.1

721.3

320.8

620.8

920.7

820.3

620.8

321.5

021.9

622.8

1 24.6

925.4

025.9

026.2

926.5

926.5

225.8

525.6

925.8

326.6

928.0

828.7

829.9

929.9

630.3

430.7

430.9

431.1

430.9

530.4

730.5

030.0

329.5

230.0

130.2

730.2

330.2

231.1

530.8

429.3

527.8

227.0

127.0

627.6

928.1

029.2

130.0

430.6

230.8

230.6

730.9

230.8

830.7

830.4

031.0

331.7

033.1

234.6

3

30.3

429.5

327.3

425.0

124.9

325.1

625.5

126.3

126.9

727.5

528.9

928.7

629.4

329.0

128.3

528.4

329.1

730.2

831.3

532.5

733.4

333.5

433.8

333.7

533.6

033.6

933.6

333.2

633.6

034.3

234.8

335.0

835.6

335.6

835.8

735.3

835.0

034.8

033.8

432.4

431.7

031.5

031.6

331.7

732.6

933.7

734.7

034.7

334.8

634.6

334.5

434.6

834.7

6 36.5

237.1

537.6

839.2

740.2

8

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

22 000

24 000

26 000

28 000

30 000

32 000

34 000

36 000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ja

n 0

9

Ma

r 09

Ma

y 0

9

Ju

l 09

Sep

09

No

v 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ma

r 10

Ma

y 1

0

Ju

l 10

Sep

10

No

v 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ma

r 11

Ma

y 1

1

Ju

l 11

Sep

11

No

v 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ma

r 12

Ma

y 1

2

Ju

l 12

Sep

12

No

v 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Ma

r 13

Ma

y 1

3

Ju

l 13

Sep

13

Pri

ces i

n E

UR

/100 k

g

Pro

du

cti

on

s i

n 1

000 T

on

s

EU 15/12 Milk Deliveries and Prices

Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-12; EU-13 from 07/2013)

Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-15)

Weighted average Milk price (EU-12; EU-13 from07/2013)Weighted average Milk price (EU-15)

Source : Eurostat, Reg. (EC) No 429/2010 Art. 3

12 December 2013 7

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan 0

0

Ma

y 0

0

Sep 0

0

Jan 0

1

Ma

y 0

1

Sep

01

Jan 0

2

Ma

y 0

2

Sep

02

Jan 0

3

Ma

y 0

3

Sep

03

Jan 0

4

Ma

y 0

4

Sep 0

4

Jan 0

5

May 0

5

Sep 0

5

Jan 0

6

May 0

6

Sep 0

6

Jan 0

7

May 0

7

Sep 0

7

Jan 0

8

May 0

8

Sep 0

8

Jan 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Sep 0

9

Jan 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Sep 1

0

Jan 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Sep 1

1

Jan 1

2

Ma

y 1

2

Sep

12

Jan 1

3

Ma

y 1

3

Sep

13

Jan 1

4

EUR/100 kgMilk Prices Evolution (up to October 2013)

LTO Weighted Average Milk Price * (standardized 4.2% fat)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices)

Source :MS communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010 + LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland

12 December 2013 8

Source: MS communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others

to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

Estimates for IT and CY

58.4

51.249.4

44.8 44.142.5 42.3 41.7 41.7 41.6

40.8 40.4 40.1 39.538.4

37.0 36.7 36.5 36.535.5 35.3 35.1 35.1 34.8 34.5 34.4 34.1

32.631.3

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

58

62

CY MT FI IE EL SE NL DE IT DK BE AT LU EU UK ES FR HR LT PT EE CZ BG HU SI SK PL LV RO

in E

UR

/100 k

g

EU Milk Prices(October 2013 compared to October 2012)

EU28 in 2013 - EU 27 in 2012

Milk Price 2012 Milk Price 2013

12 December 2013 9

Source: MS communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

,150

,175

,200

,225

,250

,275

,300

,325

,350

,375

,400

,425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/10

0 k

g

Monthly EU SMP Prices

2010 2011 2012 2013 IP 2009

12 December 2013 10


,150

,175

,200

,225

,250

,275

,300

,325

,350

,375

,400

,425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00

kg

Monthly EU BUTTER Prices

2010 2011 20122013 IP 2009 Avg 2007-2009

12 December 2013 11

317.6

407.0

370.9

401.8

,140

,160

,180

,200

,220

,240

,260

,280

,300

,320

,340

,360

,380

,400

,420

,440

Mar

03

Jun

03

Sep

03

Dec 0

3

Mar

04

Jun

04

Sep

04

Dec 0

4

Mar

05

Jun

05

Sep

05

Dec 0

5

Mar

06

Jun

06

Sep

06

Dec 0

6

Mar

07

Jun

07

Sep

07

Dec 0

7

Mar

08

Jun

08

Sep

08

Dec 0

8

Mar

09

Jun

09

Sep

09

Dec 0

9

Mar

10

Jun

10

Sep

10

Dec 1

0

Mar

11

Jun

11

Sep

11

Dec 1

1

Mar

12

Jun

12

Sep

12

Dec 1

2

Mar

13

Jun

13

Sep

13

Dec 1

3

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

EU Dairy Quotations(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

Source: MS communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

12 December 2013 12 Source: MS communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

,150

,170

,190

,210

,230

,250

,270

,290

,310

,330

,350

,370

,390

,410

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Se

p

Oct

Nov

Dec

Monthly EU WMP Prices

2010 2011 2012

2013 Avg 2007-2009 2010

2011 2012 2013

12 December 2013 13


,180

,200

,220

,240

,260

,280

,300

,320

,340

,360

,380

,400

,420

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Se

p

Oct

Nov

Dec

Monthly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2010 2011 2010 2013 Avg 2007-2009

,200

,220

,240

,260

,280

,300

,320

,340

,360

,380

,400

,420

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Se

p

Oct

Nov

Dec

Monthly EU EDAM Prices

2010 2011 2012 2 013

12 December 2013 14


,20

,40

,60

,80

,100

,120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Se

p

Oct

Nov

Dec

Monthly EU WheyPowder Prices

2010 2011 2012 2013

12 December 2013 15

USD/EUR

Source: European Central Bank

1.3750

US Dollar

12 December 2013 16

4 600

4 260

4 350

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000A

ug 0

6

Nov 0

6

Feb

07

May 0

7

Aug 0

7

Nov 0

7

Feb

08

May 0

8

Aug

08

Nov 0

8

Feb 0

9

May 0

9

Aug

09

Nov 0

9

Feb 1

0

May 1

0

Aug

10

Nov 1

0

Feb 1

1

May 1

1

Aug

11

Nov 1

1

Feb 1

2

May 1

2

Aug 1

2

Nov 1

2

Feb 1

3

May 1

3

Aug 1

3

Nov 1

3

Pri

ces i

n U

SD

/to

nn

e

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

12 December 2013 17

4 000

5 470

3 660

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Aug

06

No

v 0

6

Feb

07

May 0

7

Au

g 0

7

Nov 0

7

Feb

08

May 0

8

Au

g 0

8

No

v 0

8

Feb

09

May 0

9

Au

g 0

9

Nov 0

9

Feb

10

Ma

y 1

0

Aug

10

Nov 1

0

Feb

11

Ma

y 1

1

Aug

11

Nov 1

1

Fe

b 1

2

Ma

y 1

2

Aug

12

Nov 1

2

Fe

b 1

3

May 1

3

Aug

13

Nov 1

3

Pri

ce

s in

US

D/t

on

ne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation


12 December 2013 18

4 950

4 990

4 440

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Aug

06

No

v 0

6

Feb

07

May 0

7

Au

g 0

7

Nov

07

Feb

08

May 0

8

Aug

08

No

v 0

8

Feb

09

May 0

9

Au

g 0

9

Nov

09

Feb

10

Ma

y 1

0

Au

g 1

0

Nov

10

Feb

11

Ma

y 1

1

Aug

11

Nov

11

Feb

12

May 1

2

Au

g 1

2

Nov

12

Feb

13

Ma

y 1

3

Aug

13

Nov

13

Pri

ce

s in

US

D/t

on

ne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation


12 December 2013 19

4 500

5 420

4 110

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Aug

06

No

v 0

6

Feb

07

Ma

y 0

7

Aug

07

No

v 0

7

Feb

08

Ma

y 0

8

Aug

08

No

v 0

8

Feb

09

Ma

y 0

9

Aug

09

No

v 0

9

Feb

10

Ma

y 1

0

Au

g 1

0

No

v 1

0

Feb

11

Ma

y 1

1

Au

g 1

1

No

v 1

1

Feb

12

Ma

y 1

2

Au

g 1

2

No

v 1

2

Feb

13

Ma

y 1

3

Au

g 1

3

No

v 1

3

Pri

ce

s in

US

D/t

on

ne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation


12 December 2013 20

6 600

6 800

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

8 200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

in t

on

nes

.

Adjusted U.S. milk production (months of constant length)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source:USDA

Jan-Oct 2013 compared to 2012 : + 0.5% (real monthly production)

12 December 2013 21 Source: Dairy Australia

,500

,600

,700

,800

,900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

in t

on

nes

.

Jul-Oct 2013/14 compared to 2012/13 : - 4.2%

Australian milk production

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

12 December 2013 22 Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

in t

on

nes

.

Jun-Sep 2013/2014 compared to 2012/2013 : + 6.9%

NZ milk production

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/2013 2013/2014

12 December 2013 23

Prices

in US$/t Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

Weighted

average

price % change Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

AMF n.a. 5 384 5 440 5 392 5 283 5 610 n.a. n.a. 5 395 + 2.7% + 2.0% + 2.2% + 2.8% + 3.0% + 9.6%

Butter 4 055 3 740 3 735 3 695 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3 750 + 4.7% + 5.3% + 4.8% + 4.0% + 4.2%

BMP n.a. 4 960 4 990 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4 630 - 2.6% + 4.9% + 4.0%

Cheeses n.a. 4 470 4 586 4 456 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4 501 - 1.8% - 3.5% + 1.7% - 3.3%

MPC70 n.a. 8 170 8 395 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8 242 + 5.8% + 4.8% + 8.0%

Rennet Casein n.a. 10 771 11 585 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 11 011 + 16.9% + 16.2% + 19.7%

Lactose n.a. n.a. 1 730 1 730 1 730 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1 730

SMP 4 558 4 802 4 781 4 816 4 918 5 745 n.a. n.a. 4 791 + 4.5% + 2.8% + 4.7% + 4.1% + 4.2% + 7.3% + 20.1%

WMP 5 025 5 000 5 081 5 121 5 081 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5 035 + 3.4% + 2.8% + 4.9% + 5.3% + 0.5%

03/12/2013 1 = 1.3578 $ (ECB rate)

in /t Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14Weighted

average price

AMF 3 965 4 007 3 971 3 891 4 132 #VALUE! #VALUE! 3 974

Butter 2 986 2 755 2 751 2 721 2 762

BMP 3 653 3 675 3 410

Cheese 3 292 3 378 3 282 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 3 315

MPC70 6 017 6 183 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 6 070

Rennet Casein 7 932 8 532 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 8 110

Lactose 1 274 1 274 1 274 6 936

SMP 3 357 3 537 3 521 3 547 3 622 4 231 #VALUE! #VALUE! 3 528

WMP 3 701 3 683 3 742 3 771 3 742 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 3 708

Source : http://www.globaldairytrade.info/

% change by contract from previous auction

Results of the GDT Auction of 03.12.2013

Documents

Situation Marche COM 12 Décembre 2013