CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

Atelier Événement parallèle COP22: Sensibilisation sur le Rôle, Activités et Conclusions du GIEC

HILMI K.

Atelier Événement parallèle COP22: Sensibilisation sur le Rôle, Activités et Conclusions du GIEC

RAPPORTS AR5

www.ipcc.chWGI WGII/PartA WGII/PartB WGIII SYR

Part A: Global and Sectoral AspectsContext for the AR5Natural and Managed Resources and Systems, and Their UsesFreshwater resources - Terrestrial and inland water systems Coastal systems and low-lying areas Ocean systems Food security and food production systems Human Settlements, Industry, and InfrastructureUrban Areas Rural Areas Key economic sectors and services Human Health, Well-Being, and SecurityHuman health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits Human security Livelihoods and poverty AdaptationAdaptation needs and options Adaptation planning and implementation

Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits Economics of adaptation Multi-Sector Impacts, Risks, Vulnerabilities, and OpportunitiesDetection and attribution of observed impacts Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities Climate-resilient pathways: adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development Part B: Regional AspectsRegional context Regional ChaptersAfrica Europe Asia Australasia North America Central and South America Polar Regions Small Islands The Ocean Annexes

Chapitres AR5/WGII

Risk Level withCurrent Adaptation

Potential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce Risk

Risk Level withHigh Adaptation

Risk-LevelVeryLow Med

VeryHigh

4°C2°C

Present

Long Term(2080-2100)

Near Term (2030-2040)

The Ocean (WGI/AR5)

The Ocean (WGI/AR5)

The Ocean (WGI/AR5)

The Ocean- Projections (2050-2100)

The Ocean- Projections (2050-2100)

Impacts (WGII/AR5)

GIEC/WGII/CHAP6

Table SM30-4 | Projected changes in sea surface temperature (SST ºC) over the next 90 years for ocean sub-regions (Figure SM30-1) from AOGCM model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/). Simulations were available for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5…. The table is divided into two sections: “Nearterm (2010 – 2039)” (the average change in SST over the next 30 years) and “Long-term (2010 – 2099)” (the total change over 2010 – 2099, which was calculated by adding the average change of the three 30-year periods from 2010 to 2099). This is a simplifi ed method to account for slight non-linearity in SST change over the 90-year period.

Benazzouz et al. (2013, 2015)

Caranza (2008)

Modified from Caranza (2008)

Physical environ-ment

Fish stocks

Ecosystem

Coastal in-frastructure and fishing options

Inland fish-ing opera-tions and

livelihoods

Climate change impacts on fisheries

Ocean acidification

Warming of upper ocean layers

Higher water temperature

Salination + stratification

Sea level rise

Changes in ocean cur-rents and coastal up-welling

More extreme (floods, drou-ghts, storms) and ENSO events

Less predict-able seasons

Changing level of precipitation

IMPACTS Pot. outcomes for fisheries

Helping mecanisms

Knowledge base

studies on presu-mable impacts of CC early warning system new techologies adapt. measures

Governance: policy, legal and

implementation framework

planning and adaptation to CC Climate proofing of national strategies institutional de-velopment (cooper.)

Capacity building

Awareness raising Training

Fin. Mechanisms Microcredit PES Assurances against extreme events

Negative effects on calciferous animals including slowed rates of coral growth

Shifts and changes indistribution ofplankton, inverte- brates, fishes

Changes in timing ofproductivity

Declines in levels ofproductivitycalciferous marine ressources coastal fisheries target species also lake and river productivity coral-reef fisheries

Increased costs cost of adaptation increased risks of storms => costs of insurance and from damages

Increased vulnera-bility riparian, floodplain and coastal house- holds greater risks reduced diversity of rural livelihoods reduced income

Polewards shift:plankton and species Changes in timing of phytoplankton blooms Changing in zooplankton composition

Changes on physiology and sex ratios altered timing of spwaning, migration and peak abundance Incresed invasisve species, diseases and algal blooms Increased coral bleaching

Loss of coastal habitats Saline intrusion into freshwater habitats Loss of harbours, homes, tourist infras. Increased exposures of coastal areas to storm damage

Effects on abundance of species and fish recrutement

Changes in lake water levels, dry water flows in rivers Fewer days for fishing, increased risk of accidents Damage to productive assets + homes Aquaculture installations at greater risk of damage, damage of equipement and stuff of artisanal fishers

Decreased ability to plan seasonal livelihood activities

Decrease of precipitation => reduced oportunities for fishing and aquaculture, decrease of see water levels

Type of changes

Climatic drivers

Adaptation measures

Flexibility (types of gear, fished species, allocations that are harvested)Diversify livelihoods (e.g. IAA)Programs which address habitat and ecosystems: coastal management, wet-lands policies, resto-ration initiatives , codes of conductPlanning processes: integrate sustainable coastal livelihoods framework in fish-eries policies and programs Benefit from poten-tially new advan-tages (new species)Infrastructure (buil-ding new , restoring) => consider CCEarly warning sys-tem (storms etc. => radio, sms)Incentives for long-term sustainable re-ssource use: territ-orial use rights, co-mmunity quotas, long term exclusive rightsOrganization in e.g. Cooperatives

Source C. de Fontaubert, BM

1880

1930

1930

1983

1983 2015

Source NASA/NOAA

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