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This presentation is dealing with the topic of democratic reforms in Myanmar, the complexity of relations between Myanmar and China and the consequences for the South-East Asia region. Presented at Eric Frecon's class about South East Asia at SciencesPo Paris during the spring semester 2014.
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La Chine en Asie du Sud-‐Est: Birmanie/Myanmar
Source: h:p-‐//www.economist.com/node/17965601
IntroducEon
La Birmanie ou le Myanmar ?
IntroducEon
Avril 2014: Premier recensement en Myanmar depuis trente ans
IntroducEon Histoire
(en 20 secondes)
1948 2007 1988
Aujourd’hui
Wikipedia
Introduc2on Myanmar aujourd’hui
1. L’économie 2. La société 3. Le système poliEque 4. L’acteur internaEonal
#NLD #AungSanSuuKyi #TheinSein #violencesethniques #Rohingya #elecEons2015
La Chine était un pilier du régime autoritaire et devient profondément ancrée dans le système poliEque et économique
du Myanmar. Cependant, peut-‐elle maintenir sa posiEon exclusive en dépit de
la démocraEsaEon et l'ouverture du pays?
h:p-‐//www.africancrisis.org/images/Cartoon_ZAPIRO_Myanmar_junta_Chinese_support
Introduc2on
3) Quel avenir?
2) Les rela2ons entre la Chine et le Myanmar dans un contexte de démocra2sa2on.
1) Les réformes en Myanmar: un processus irréversible et complet?
1) Les réformes en Myanmar: un processus irréversible et complet?
A) Les facteurs intérieurs et extérieurs nécessaires à la démocraEsaEon
Wikipedia
1) Les réformes en Myanmar: un processus irréversible et complet?
B) Les limites des réformes
25%
h:p-‐//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b5/MMarmyflag
2) Les rela2ons entre la Chine et le Myanmar dans un contexte de
démocra2sa2on A) Les conséquences du processus de réforme -‐> un réexamen
des relaEons poliEques et économiques avec le Myanmar
h:p-‐//www.islandbreath.org/2011Year/09/110930burma.jpg h:p-‐//www.bbc.com/news/world-‐asia-‐pacific-‐15123833
2) Les rela2ons entre la Chine et le Myanmar dans un contexte de démocra2sa2on
B) De forts enjeux stratégiques
h:p-‐//cdn.staEc-‐economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-‐width/images/print-‐ediEon/20130525_SRM934.png h:p://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/05/daily-‐chart-‐9
3) Quel avenir pour le Myanmar? A) Le Myanmar: ses défis et ses atouts • me:re la fin a la guerre
civile • l’amélioraEon des
condiEon de vie et la poursuite du développement durable
h:p-‐//www.courrierinternaEonal.com/files/illustraEons/arEcle/2012/03/1117/1117-‐MyanmarEthnie
Quel Avenir pour le Myanmar? B) un territoire qui cristallise les enjeux internaEonaux
h:p-‐//www.carto-‐presse.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2011/10/0203_Birmanie_V4 h:p-‐//www.taipeiEmes.com/images/2012/11/20/thumbs/P01-‐121120-‐304.jpg h:p-‐//wisdomquarterly.blogspot.fr/2011/07/india-‐trying-‐to-‐woo-‐burma-‐from-‐china
Conclusion
က"#ဇ%#တ'()တယ္။ Kyeizu (n ba de
Merci de votre a:enEon
Bibliographie: • Jane Pelez, „U.S. and China Press for Influence in Myanmar,“ New York Times, March 20, 2012, accesed April 10, 2014,
h:p://www.nyEmes.com/2012/03/31/world/asia/myanmar-‐reforms-‐set-‐us-‐and-‐china-‐in-‐race-‐for-‐sway.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0. • David Cohen, „China’s Myanmar Problem,“ The Diplomat, January 17, 2013, accessed April 9, 2014, h:p://thediplomat.com/2013/01/chinas-‐myanmar-‐problem/. • Brian P. Klein, “How Not to Invest in Myanmar,” Foreign Affairs, July 25, 2012, accessed April 8, 2014,
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h:p://www.brookings.edu/research/expert-‐qa/2012/11/16-‐myanmar-‐bader-‐qa. • Tridivesh Singh Maini, “Can India Catch Up With China in Myanmar?” The Diplomat, March 16, 2014, accessed March 20, 2014,
h:p://thediplomat.com/2014/03/can-‐india-‐catch-‐up-‐with-‐china-‐in-‐myanmar/. • ChrisEna Larson, “China’s Oil Pipeline Through Myanmar Brings Both Energy and Resentment,” BloombergBusinessweek, February 4, 2014, accessed March 30, 2014,
h:p://www.businessweek.com/arEcles/2014-‐02-‐04/chinas-‐oil-‐pipeline-‐through-‐myanmar-‐brings-‐both-‐energy-‐and-‐resentment#r=rss. • Yun Sun, “China’s IntervenEon in the Myanmar-‐Kachin Peace Talks,” Brookings, February 20, 2013, accessed March 25, 2014,
h:p://www.brookings.edu/research/arEcles/2013/02/20-‐china-‐myanmar-‐sun. • Yun Sun, “China’s Strategic Misjudgment on Myanmar,” Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs 1 (2012): 73-‐96. • David I. Steinberg, “The Problem of Democracy in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, Neither NaEon-‐State Nor State-‐NaEon?,” Southeast Asian Affairs (2012): 220-‐237. • “How Myanmar will connect up Asia,” The Economist, May 23, 2013, accessed April 2, 2014, h:p://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/05/daily-‐chart-‐9. • Winston Set Aung, “Informal Trade and Underground Economy in Myanmar, Cost and Benefits,” Irasec, June, 2011, accessed 30 April, 2014, Informal Trade and Underground Economy in
Myanmar Costs and Benefits.pdf. • Kyaw Yin Hlaing, “Understanding Recent PoliEcal Changes in Myanmar,” Contemporary Southeast Asia 34 (2012): 197-‐216. • Sudha Ramachandran, “China-‐South Asia Strategic Engagement -‐ 3, Sino-‐Myanmar RelaEoship: Past Imperfect, Future Tense,” ISAS 158 (August 2012): 1-‐19. • Maxwell Harrington, “Conference Report: China-‐Myanmar RelaEons: The Dilemmas of Mutual Dependence Georgetown University,” Journal of Current Southeast Asian Afffairs 1 (2012):
133-‐139. • Yun Sun, “China, the United States and the Kachin Conflict,” S(mson Issue Brief 2 (January 2014). • OECD (2014), “ExecuEve summary”, in OECD Investment Policy Reviews: Myanmar 2014, OECD Publishing. h:p://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264206441-‐4-‐en • James O’Connor, “State Building, Infrastructure Development and Chinese Energy Projects in Myanmar,” in Les notes de l’Irasec n10, March 2011, IRASEC.
