IBSA - Capter les disparités territoriales du boom démographique bruxellois // BISA – De territoriale verschillen van de Brusselse demografische boom begrijpen

19 novembre 2015 ‹N°› www.ibsa.irisnet.be

Capturing territorial disparities of Brussels’ population boom:

The ‘Monitoring des Quartiers’, an interactive decision

support tool

Jean-Pierre HERMIA

Carole THAYS

<1>

www.monitoringdesquartiers.irisnet.be


I. Is it differentiated within the region?

II. Is it accompanied by changes in the neighbourhoods’ demographic

composition?

III. What are the consequences of (1) and (2) on the need for schools?

Outline of the presentation

<2>

1. The Brussels-Capital Region and the ‘Monitoring des Quartiers’

2. Brussels’ demographic boom

3. Conclusions

Evolution of the population

Evolution of the age structure

Supply and demand for school facilities


One of Belgium’s 3 regions

• 0.5% of its total area

• 11% of its population (1.175 million inhabitants)

• Very high density

A delimited federated entity with its own competencies

• Does not correspond to the geographic reality of the Brussels

agglomeration (which is much larger than the Region)

• Has seen a demographic boom over the past decade

high stakes in terms of

• land management (regional competency),

• matching supply/demand for facilities (shared competencies)

The Region is made of 19 municipalities

1. The Brussels-Capital Region


1. The ‘Monitoring des Quartiers’:

an overview

<3>

• Project started in 2005 and materialised in a website in 2009

• 145 neighbourhoods (‘districts’) in Brussels

• Infra-municipality scale

• Neighbourhoods = living area

• Addition of statistical sectors

• 245 indicators

• 10 themes (Labour market, Income, Population…)

• More than 30 data sources (Federal, Community, Regional…)

19 novembre 2015 ‹N°› www.ibsa.irisnet.be www.monitoringdesquartiers.irisnet.be


The 145 neighbourhoods of the Region

Population density in 2013 (inhab./km²)

‘Poor crescent’

Canal


2. Demographic boom

Croissance de la population en RBC

900.000

950.000

1.000.000

1.050.000

1.100.000

1.150.000

1.200.000

1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Evolution of the population in the Brussels-Capital Region

Long demographic decline

(Periurbanisation)

Boom

(International immigration

High natality

Periurbanisation)


Question 1 : Is the demographic boom differentiated within the region?

# Monitoring des Quartiers

Evolution of the population

(Average annual population growth rate)

1998-2003

2003-2008 => 1998-2013

2008-2013


Evolution of the population 1998-2003

Annual growth rate (%)

Absolute growth




Absolute growth




Absolute growth



Differentiated evolution

• Southeast spared by the boom

• Boom most pronounced in the

most dense areas (Centre,

axis of the canal, North and

West)


Absolute growth


Question 2 : Is the demographic boom accompanied by changes in the neighbourhoods’ demographic composition?

# Monitoring des Quartiers

Proportion of the population in (9) age groups

0-2 years old, 3-5 years old, 6-11 years old…

Principal components analysis

9 variables (age groups) et 145 observation units (neighbourhoods)

=> 1st component explains 59% of the variance



-1

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

0-2 ans 3-5 ans 6-11 ans 12-17 ans 18-29 ans 30-44 ans 45-64 ans 65-79 ans 80 ans +

Evolution of the age structure: PCA C

orr

ela

tion c

oeffic

ient

with t

he 1

st c

om

ponent



Component 1 in 1998



Component 1 in 2013



Component 1 (1998-2013)

Differentiated evolution

• Relative aging

• Southeast

• Poor crescent

• Relative younging

• West and Northeast


Question 3 : What are the effects of

• the heterogeneity of the demographic boom within the Region

• the differentiated demographic change

on the adequacy between supply and demand for school facilities?

Impact on the need for schools


Impact on the need for schools:

School capacity of the neighbourhood in 2013-2014

(no. pupils / no. children) (primary school) Complex spatial structure &

high spatial heterogeneity

Low school capacity in

Molenbeek-St-Jean and the

canal area


Impact on the need for schools: Share of pupils living in the neighbourhood that

are enrolled in a primary school of the neighbourhood or in an adjoining

neighbourhood in 2013-2014 (%) Clearer spatial structure

• Southeast and outskirts

Pupils stay in the neighbourhood

• Centre, Canal

Pupils go further


The ‘Monitoring des Quartiers’ is a decision support tool

Particularly for the political decision makers and public institutions

The demographic boom and its consequences is intended to be an illustrative

example of the numerous possibilities of the tool

It allows to understand the infra-municipality realities

The municipality scale poorly grasps numerous city context

It compares various themes

It undergoes continuous development and improvements

We need your input/feedbacks

Conclusions


Thank you for your attention … and suggestions!



Non-Impact on the need for schools: Share of pupils living in the neighbourhood

that are enrolled in a primary school of the neighbourhood or in an adjoining

neighbourhood in 2013-2014 (%)

Presentations & Public Speaking

IBSA - Capter les disparités territoriales du boom démographique bruxellois // BISA – De territoriale verschillen van de Brusselse demografische boom begrijpen