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© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Глобальные технологические трендыThe 2018 To 2019 Global Tech Market Outlook
Сергей Македонский
Региональный директор, CIS&Baltics
«Цифровой город Москва – итоги 2017года и образ будущего»
13 марта 2018 г.
3© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Agenda
› Age of the Customer and Market Imperatives
› Global tech spending will increase at a faster 5% pace in 2018, but with risks rising in 2019.
› US, China, and India are leading growth; Europe and Japan also participating in the growth.
› BT priorities are fueling tech market demand, but back-office technology spending is also growing.
› Cloud is reshaping tech markets, especially in software and services, but also in hardware.
› 2019 risks stem from policies in the US, the UK, and China.
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Empowered customers are changing the way companies compete and win
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Empowered customers have given rise to a new era
Age of manufacturing
Mass manufacturing
makes industrial
powerhouses
successful
• Ford
• Boeing
• GE
• RCA
Age of distribution
Global connections
and transportation
systems make
distribution key
• Wal-Mart
• Toyota
• P&G
• UPS
Age of information
Connected PCs and
supply chains mean
those that control
information flow
dominate
• Amazon
• Comcast
• Capital One
Age of the customer
Empowered buyers
demand a new level of
customer obsession
• Macy’s
• Salesforce.com
• USAA
• Amazon
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Drive revenue with great customer
experience
Differentiate with digital
Build a customer insights driven organization
Excel at customer-obsessed marketing
Maximize the business value of technology
The age of thecustomer
Forrester identified 5 market imperatives, modern organizations should master in order to win
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The Age of the Customer requirements are common to every industry
Understand and anticipate your customers.
Win on the battleground of customer experience.
Differentiate on business technology.
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In this new era we focus on 12 roles
Marketing & Strategy
CMO B2B
Marketing
B2C
Marketing
Customer
Experience
Customer
Insights
eBusiness
& Channel
Strategy
Technology Management
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AGENDA
BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY AGENDA
CIO Enterprise
Architecture
Security
& Risk
Application
Development
& Delivery
Sourcing
& Vendor
Management
Infrastructure
& Operations
Customers
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Three sets of five technologies stand out
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Emerging tech will unleash massive change
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Why CIOs should care about tech market trends
›To understand how much and where other firms are spending
on technology and how that spending is shifting over time
›To determine where they ought to be investing more to get
ahead of or keep up with competition
›To improve the prioritization of investments in new workloads
where technology can be transformational for the business
›To be able to negotiate with vendors better by understanding
how well they are or aren’t doing
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How our global forecasts have evolved
*Forrester forecast
WE HAVE RAISED OUR 2018 TECH MARKET OUTLOOK DUE TO BETTER ECONOMIC GROWTH, BUT
ARE CAUTIOUS ABOUT THE 2019 OUTLOOK DUE TO GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
Forrester’s forecasts
for global tech market growth in US dollars
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Global tech market by product in US$, 2014 to 2019
*Forrester forecast
2.4%-4.2% 6.1%4.6%
$2,959 $2,835 $2,905 $3,029
$3,3604.3%
$3,212
US
$ b
illi
on
s
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US dollar growth rates in global tech market by product
Global in US$
(% change)2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019*
Computer equipment -7.5% -2.0% 3.8% 5.6% 4.1%
Communications equipment -3.5% -1.9% 3.1% 5.5% 2.9%
Software -2.2% 4.9% 5.1% 8.3% 7.4%
Tech consulting and systems
integration services-2.1% 3.9% 4.5% 6.4% 4.7%
Tech outsourcing and hardware
maintenance-5.9% 5.0% 6.3% 6.6% 5.7%
Telecommunications services -5.0% 1.8% 2.4% 3.6% 1.7%
Total tech purchases -4.2% 2.4% 4.3% 6.1% 4.6%
*Forrester forecast
SOFTWARE AND CONSULTING SERVICES LEAD THE MARKET
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Global tech market by region in US$, 2014 to 2019
*Forrester forecast
2.4%-4.2% 6.1%4.6%
$2,959 $2,835 $2,905 $3,029
$3,3604.3%
$3,212
US
$ b
illi
on
s
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By region, the US and Asia Pacific’s tech market will grow fastest in 2018 and 2019
*Forrester forecast
2014 to 2019 regional tech purchases forecast
(Percentage change in exchange-rate-adjusted US dollars)
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2018 tech market by 25 largest country tech markets
Russia
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How Forrester looks at tech spending
• Business technology (BT)
is technology for firms to win,
serve, and retain customers.
• Back-office technology
(BoT) is technology to
support business operations
and to cut costs.
BT
new project
BoT new project
BoT MOOSE
BT MOOSE
• Tech MOOSE is the 70% to 75%
of tech budget to maintain and
operate organization, systems,
and equipment.
• New project
spending (25% to
30%) creates new
capabilities.
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Business technology will be almost $1 trillion of global tech purchases in 2019
Source: Forrester Research
*Forrester forecast
US
$ b
illi
on
s
2.4%-4.2%
4.6%
$2,959$2,835 $2,905 $3,029
$3,3604.3%
$3,212
6.1%
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Business technology will constitute a larger share of new spending in 2018
*Forrester forecast
Global tech spending by focus
(US$ billions)
$3,212
$855
$2,458
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And spending on business technology will grow faster than spending on IT
*Forrester forecast
Global tech purchases by business focus
(Percentage change from prior year)
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Global software by major product
(US$ billions) $738
$589$576
$604$635
Global software market, 2014 to 2019
*Forrester forecast
$688
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Growth from prior year 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019*
Operating systems -4% -5% -5% -8% -2%
Storage management 1% -16% -7% -3% 4%
Database management systems 3% 2% 1% 0% 2%
IT management tools -8% -2% 2% 4% 6%
Security 16% 3% 4% 9% 9%
App servers and integration 2% -2% 6% 9% 9%
Application development tools -2% 2% 3% 6% 6%
Desktop applications -9% 2% 5% 6% 7%
Information management applications 6% 9% 10% 11% 12%
Business applications 2% 9% 10% 13% 15%
Enterprise vertical applications -2% 6% 8% 8% 8%
Mobile applications built by contractors and
consultants35% 30% 29% 10% 10%
Other custom applications built by contractors
and consultants-11% 4% -2% 5% -2%
Information management and business apps will have the strongest growth in 2018 and 2019
*Forrester forecast
Middleware
Applications
Custom
applications
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SaaS has captured half or more of revenues in half dozen app categories
*Forrester forecast
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Cloud software rises toward a third of all commercial software
*Forrester forecast
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$337
$257 $258
$304
Global business applications by type of product
(US$ billions)
In business apps, BI, CRM, FMS, HRMS, and vertical apps are biggest categories
*Forrester forecast
$278
$378
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Global tech consulting and systems integration services market
(US$ billions)
SaaS implementation services growing faster than on-premises software services
*Forrester forecast
$629$660
$562 $548$591
-2.6% 3.7% 4.0%
$568
4.9%6.5%
7%
0%
20%
8%
2%
25%
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Global tech outsourcing services market
(US$ billions)
Public and private cloud platforms growing strongly, with a revival in other tech outsourcing
*Forrester forecast
$485$505
$466$432
$465
-7.4%3.3% 4.2%
$446
4.0%4.4%
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Global computer equipment market by major product
(US$ billions)
Strong growth in spending on PCs and tablets; bump up in demand for servers and storage for cloud platforms in 2018
*Forrester forecast
$367$370$342 $335
$348
-7.5% -2.0%3.8% 5.6%
4.1%
$382
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Global communications equipment market by major product
(US$ billions)
Decent increase in demand for communications equipment in 2018, slowing in 2019
*Forrester forecast
$341$331 $319 $313 $323
-3.5% -1.9% 3.1% 5.5%$350
2.9%
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Three reasons the tech market could do worse than our forecast
1. US tax bill provides excessive stimulus to business investment, stock
market, and commercial real estate, leading to a bubble in 2018 that
collapses in 2019, undermined by weak consumer spending, falling
housing sector, and declines in government spending.
2. UK’s Brexit negotiations get even messier, leading to a UK recession in
2019.
3. China’s heavy-handed economic management papers over debt and
growth issues in 2018, which resurface in 2019.
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Recommendations for CIOs
› Plan for good tech budget increases in 2018 in most countries, but be cautious in
2019.
• Adapt your plans to your country’s and industry’s tech market outlook.
› Use the cloud, but watch your future costs.
• SaaS software and cloud platforms offer firms the new technologies they need to support their BT
agenda at low implementation costs, but a handful of large vendors are gaining dominant positions
in their market segments.
• CIOs should avoid monogamy when it comes to their cloud relationships, and have a contingency
plan for vendor price increases.
› Balance investments in the BT agenda with back-office improvements.
• Firms experiencing increased revenues should invest in the BT technologies needed to win, serve,
and retain customers. CIOs need to be prepared to pay market rates for critical BT technologies and
delay, or look for cheap alternatives for less critical ones.
FORRESTER.COM
Thank you© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.
Sergei Makedonski
+31203054373
+79039746761