L'Afghanistan après 2014 : quel impact pour la Russie ?

8/23/2019 L'Afghanistan aprs 2014 : quel impact pour la Russie ?

1/24

DAgkjahlstah aprs 0>1=6qubd lopait peur

da Pusslb 5

Bcatbrlha Ytbpaheva

Oal 0>19

Ibhtrb Pusslb/HBL


2/24

D'Lgrl bst, bh Grahib, db prlhilpad ibhtrb lhmpbhmaht mb rbijbrijb,

m'lhgeroatleh bt mb m`at sur dbs krahmbs qubstlehs lhtbrhatlehadbs. Irbh 1


3/24

1 Lgrl

Pusslb.Hbl.Wlslehs

Pusslb.Hbl.Wlslehs bst uhb ieddbitleh huorlqub iehsairb da Pusslbbt aux heuvbaux tats lhmpbhmahts (@lderusslb, Rcralhb, Oedmavlb,Arohlb, Kerklb, Azbràmfah, Cazacjstah, Euz`clstah,]urcohlstah, ]amflclstah bt Clrkjlzstah). Pmlks par mbs bxpbrtsrbiehhus, ibs artlidbs pedliy erlbhtbmaèrmbht aussl `lbh dbs qubstlehsstratklqubs, pedltlqubs quieheolqubs.

Ibttb ieddbitleh rbspbitb dbs herobs mb quadlt mb d'Lgrl(vaduatleh par mbs palrs bt sulvl mlterlad).

Yl veus seujaltbz trb lhgero mbs parutlehs par ieurrlbrdbitrehlqub (eu e`tbhlr mbs lhgeroatlehs ieopdobhtalrbs), veuspeuvbz irlrb damrbssb sulvahtb 6 lhge.russlb.hblNlgrl.erk

Mbrhlbrs huores

H. êussbhceva, êdltlqub hbrktlqub russb d'Bst 6 db iassb-ttbijlhels mb Peshbgt, Pusslb.Hbl.Wlslehs, h;>, avrld 0>19 3

P. @eurkbet, Pusslb-]urqulb 6 uhb rbdatleh mtbrolhb pard'hbrklb, Pusslb.Hbl.Wlslehs , h719 3

A. Objml bt Yj. \bhlcbybgg, Keuvbrhburs, edlkarqubs bt sldevlcl 6ptredb bt peuvelr bh Pusslb, Pusslb.Hbl.Wlslehs, h7:, gvrlbr 0>19.
http://www.ifri.org/?page=detail-contribution&id=7634&id_provenance=97http://www.ifri.org/?page=detail-contribution&id=7634&id_provenance=97http://www.ifri.org/?page=detail-contribution&id=7634&id_provenance=97http://www.ifri.org/?page=detail-contribution&id=7634&id_provenance=97http://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifriremibourgeotrussieturquieframars2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifriremibourgeotrussieturquieframars2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifriremibourgeotrussieturquieframars2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifriremibourgeotrussieturquieframars2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifrimehdiyenikeyeffrussianoilindustryandelitesfrafeb2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifrimehdiyenikeyeffrussianoilindustryandelitesfrafeb2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifrimehdiyenikeyeffrussianoilindustryandelitesfrafeb2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifrimehdiyenikeyeffrussianoilindustryandelitesfrafeb2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifrimehdiyenikeyeffrussianoilindustryandelitesfrafeb2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifrimehdiyenikeyeffrussianoilindustryandelitesfrafeb2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifriremibourgeotrussieturquieframars2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifriremibourgeotrussieturquieframars2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/?page=detail-contribution&id=7634&id_provenance=97http://www.ifri.org/?page=detail-contribution&id=7634&id_provenance=97


4/24

B. Ytbpaheva / RY, Pusslb, Agkjahlstah

0 Lgrl

Autbur

Bcatbrlha Ytbpaheva bst mlrbitrlib mb rbijbrijb, bh ijarkb mbstravaux sur da palx bt dbs iehgdlts dLhstltut mieheolb oehmladb bt mbrbdatlehs lhtbrhatlehadbs (LOBOE) Oesieu. Bhtrb 0>>; bt 0>>>:) bt ]jb Pedb eg Lddlilt Mruk@uslhbss lh tjb êdltliad Bieheoy eg Iehgdlits ahm ]brrerlso(Oesieu,0>>2). Bddb bst obo`rb mbs ieolts mlterlaux mbs rbvubs ]brrerlsoahm êdltliad Wledbhib, Lhtbrhatlehad Feurhad eg Iehgdlit ahm WledbhibbtYbiurlty Lhmbx, alhsl qub mu pahbd mbxpbrtsKdeàd ^baib Lhmbx bt muieolt iehsudtatlg mu prekraoob Ybiurlty lh ]rahsltleh (Yiurlt bhtrahsltleh) da Dehmeh Yijeed eg Bieheolis. Bddb bst kadbobhtobo`rb mu kreupb mbxpbrts tats-Rhls-Pusslb sur db harietragliagkjah. Bddb ahlob mbs solhalrbs duhlvbrslt burepbhhb mb Yalht-^tbrsèurk bt bst pregbssburb lhvltb dRhlvbrslt burepbhhb mb dapalx bh Autrlijb.

êur uhb prsbhtatleh mtalddb mb sbs pu`dliatlehs ribhtbs, velr4www.bstbpaheva.hbt8.
http://www.estepanova.net/http://www.estepanova.net/http://www.estepanova.net/


5/24


9 Lgrl

Yeooalrb

PYRO ................................................................................................ =LH]PEMRI]LEH ...................................................................................... 2DAGKJAHLY]AH B] DBY MGLY IBH]PB-AYLA]LQRBY ^ERP DA PRYYLB ...... :

Iehslmratlehs siurltalrbs ......................................................... :Plsqub mlhsta`ldlt mahs Aslb ibhtradb ....................................... 1=. Dlhgdubhib mb daPusslb sur da sltuatleh lhtrlburb mb dAgkjahlstah rbstbra dloltb btlhmlrbitb. Muraht da prsbhib mbs geribs aorlialhbs bt mb dE]AH bhAgkjahlstah, Oesieu a appert au heuvbd tat agkjah uh ibrtalh hlvbaumasslstahib oldltalrb. Ibttb almb a prls da gerob mb geroatlehsmbstlhbs aux egglilbrs mb darob agkjahb, oals bst aussl passb parda geurhlturb marobs bt mqulpbobhts ibttb oob arob agkjahb btaux geribs mlhtbrvbhtleh trahkrbs. Dbs qulpbobhts geurhls ehtieuvbrt uhb kaoob trs darkb, addaht mbs arobs mb pelhk rbolsbs auxgeribs agkjahbs fusqu uh aiierm aorliahe-russb pertaht sur dageurhlturb mjdlieptrbs1. Ibttb almb slhsirlt mahs da ieepratlehprakoatlqub mb da Pusslb avbi dbs tats-Rhls bt dE]AH vlsaht gaildltbr db trahslt travbrs dAslb ibhtradb mbs sedmats bt qulpbobhtseiilmbhtaux. Da Pusslb feub kadbobht uh rdb rbstrblht, oals

susibptl`db maiiretrb, mahs db meoalhb mb da ieepratleh ieheolqubbt mb dasslstahib dAgkjahlstah. Bddb sbst peur djburb dloltb mb daseus-traltahib mahs db meoalhb mb da rbiehstruitleh bt qubdqubsprefbts mahs db sbitbur mbs lhgrastruiturbs mb dhbrklb bt mbstrahsperts.

Da Pusslb bst bhidlhb, bh ralseh hetaoobht mb seh syhmreobagkjah , iehsbrvbr sbs mlstahibs avbi dAgkjahlstah. Dbs

1Ld s'aklssalt m'alddburs mu prbolbr iehtrat iehidu mlrbitbobht bhtrb Pese`erehbxpert btdb ^bhtakehb.


11/24


< Lgrl

lhqultumbs siurltalrbs mb Oesieu mahs da rkleh sb seht hahoelhsaiirubs mahs da pbrspbitlvb mu msbhkakbobht eiilmbhtad bh 0>1=.

Plsqub mlhsta`ldlt mahs Aslb ibhtradb

Mb galt, peur da Pusslb, dbs prlhilpadbs lopdliatlehs mb ib mpartiehibrhbht dbs rlsqubs mlhsta`ldlt mahs dAslb ibhtradb. Mb ib pelht mbvub, trels dobhts melvbht trb prls bh ieoptb.

^rbolrbobht, da pbribptleh mb Oesieu mu mahkbr tbrrerlstboahaht mbs aitburs àss au âclstah bt bh Agkjahlstah a vedu auieurs mb da mbrhlrb mibhhlb. Yl mahs dbs prbolrbs ahhbs mbdaprs-11 Ybptbo`rb, daiibht talt ols sur dbs iehhbxlehs kdeàdbsmAd-Qama, y ieoprls dbs kreupbs mu Herm-Iauiasb, Oesieu bst

prekrbsslvbobht passb uhb appreijb pdus rklehadb mbs obhaibstbrrerlstbs, geiadlsb sur dAslb ibhtradb. Dlhidlhatleh russb olobrde`sbssleh mb [asjlhkteh d'karm mu tbrrerlsob dl Ad-Qama taltbssbhtlbddbobht mlitb par da hibsslt, trs prakoatlqub peur Oesieu,mb rbdlbr sa iaopakhb tijtijhb da kubrrb aorlialhb iehtrb dbtbrrerlsob, bt par db `bselh mb seudlkhbr db iaraitrb ieoouh mb ibttbobhaib kdeàdb. Db iehtbxtb lhtbrhatlehad, ibpbhmaht, a raplmbobhtijahk 6 dbs geribs eiilmbhtadbs sb seht rbtreuvbs boèur`bs bhAgkjahlstah gaib uhb lhsurrbitleh tadlàhb qul saopdlglalt. Da kubrrbiehtrb db tbrrerlsob aura t, au glhad, uhb iaopakhb iehtrevbrsb bt,mahs uhb ibrtalhb obsurb, iehtrbpremuitlvb. Maprs dbs statlstlqubsmlspehl`dbs, db heo`rb maitbs tbrrerlstbs a aukobht mb 09= % mbpulsdb dahibobht mb da kubrrb iehtrb db tbrrerlsob bh 0>>1. Da part mudleh mb ibttb bxpdesleh rbvlbht aux pays qul talbht prilsobht da il`dbmb ibttb kubrrb 6 dLrac mbpuls 0>>= bt dAgkjahlstah uh pbu pdus tarmmahs da mibhhlb 0>>> (rbfelht par db âclstah au mùt mbs ahhbs0>1>)0.

âradddbobht, Oesieu bst parvbhub rmulrb dijbddb mb sehlhtbrvbhtleh bh ]ijtijhlb, galsaht vedubr ibttb kubrrb vbrs uh iehgdltmb àssb lhtbhslt grakobht bhtrb mlvbrs bhmrelts mu Herm-Iauiasb,oob sl ibttb vedutleh a t payb au prlx gert mb da tijtijhlsatleh , sur dbs pdahs pedltlqub, siurltalrb bt ieheolqub.Ibst mahs ib iehtbxtb qub dbs mlrlkbahts russbs eht prekrbsslvbobht

ieoprls quld talt hibssalrb mta`dlr mbs pehts avbi dbs geribslsdaolstbs oemrbs bt dbs tats ousudoahs, iar dappreijb pedltlqubibhtrb sur db tbrrerlsob lsdaolstb mahs da zehb mb ^reijb btOeybh-Erlbht htalt pdus amaptb. Ibttb vedutleh a kadbobhtlhgdubhi da pbribptleh russb mb da obhaib tbrrerlstb bh prevbhahibmAgkjahlstah (bt mu âclstah) 6 da Pusslb y velt mseroals avaht teutuhb obhaib deiadb dlb aux oldltahts ibhtraslatlqubs ayaht treuv

0Kdeàd ]brrerlso Lhmbx 6 Iapturlhk tjb Lopait eg ]brrerlso lh 0>>0-0>11, Yymhby/Hbw\erc, Lhstltutb ger Bieheolis ahm ^baib, 0>10, pp. =, 09.4www.vlslehegjuoahlty.erk/wp-iehtbht/updeams/0>10/10/0>10-Kdeàd-]brrerlso-Lhmbx-Pbpert.pmg8.
http://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdfhttp://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdfhttp://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdfhttp://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdfhttp://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdfhttp://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdf


12/24


1> Lgrl

rbgukb bh Agkjahlstah bt au âclstah. Dbxpdesleh paradddb muieoobrib mb djrehb agkjahb a aussl lopes uhb rvlsleh mb dapedltlqub ibhtrb bxiduslvbobht sur da duttb iehtrb db tbrrerlsob.

Mbuxlobobht, oob sl da obhaib mb iehtakleh tbrrerlstb

mboburb uh sufbt mb preiiupatleh peur Oesieu, hetaoobht mu galt mbdlhtrt qubddb pertb da sta`ldlt mb dAslb ibhtradb, survadubr ibmahkbr sbralt aussl pbu idalrveyaht qub db seus-bstlobr. Dbs lhilmbhtsvledbhts sb seht ibrtbs oudtlpdls mahs db herm mb dAgkjahlstah mbpuls0>>1>-0>10, hb pbut trb uhlqubobhtbxpdlqu par dlhsta`ldlt agkjahb. Ibs mèrmbobhts sb mreudbht bhradlt mahs dbs mbux sbhs (heh sbudbobht mAgkjahlstah vbrs db rbstbmb dAslb ibhtradb, oals aussl, par bxbopdb, mu ]amflclstah vbrsdAgkjahlstah)9. Dbs prlhilpadbs seuribs mlhsta`ldlt bt mb vledbhiberkahlsb au ]amflclstah, au Clrkjlzlstah eu bh Euz`clstah sehtlhtbrhbs bt heh db grult muhb bxpertatleh mu iehgdlt agkjah bt ibda,

oob sl teus dbs keuvbrhbobhts mb da rkleh rbieurbht trs darkbobht da taitlqub pedltlqub mbs èuis olssalrbs trahkbrs . Mb da ooboahlrb, eh hb pbut attrlùbr teutb dlhsta`ldlt mu herm mb dAgkjahlstahaux aitlvlstbs vtrahs arrlvs mbs autrbs pays mAslb ibhtradb,ieoob db Oeuvbobht Lsdaolqub mEuz`clstah (OLE). êur ijappbr da rprbssleh, db OLE a qultt db ]amflclstah aprs da kubrrb ilvldb da glhmbs ahhbs 1>1. Db oeuvbobht sbst aders mdeiadls vbrs dbs zehbs trlàdbsmu âclstah, e ld sbst dalss oarklhadlsbr partlr mu oldlbu mbs ahhbs0>>>=.

]eus dbs aitburs (mb dE]AH au keuvbrhbobht agkjah) prgrbhtattrlùbr dbs vledbhibs survbhaht mahs db herm mb dAgkjahlstah auxvlbux gahtobs ja`ltubds mu OLE pdutt qub mb rbiehhatrb uhb radltpdus mlgglildb amobttrb, ieoob dobrkbhib mahs db herm mb heuvbauxieoàttahts eppess au keuvbrhbobht mb Caèud. Ibs lhsurks sehtaussl `lbh mbs deiaux qub mbs bxlds riboobht arrlvs mu ]amflclstaheu bhierb pelht gert boàrrassaht peur dE]AH bt dbs heta`dbs mbsprevlhibs iehibrhbs mbs tadlàhs qul eht tbhmu dbur prsbhibfusquau herm mu pays, e lds htalbht fusqu prsbht pas parvbhus slopdahtbr. Au glhad, da Pusslb melt tbhlr ieoptb muh ibrtalh mb mbkrmb oahlpudatleh mahs daopdbur mb ibttb bxtbhsleh mb da obhaib.

9 Dbssbhtlbd mb da vledbhib prlpjrlqub au ]amflclstah bh 0>1>-0>10 talt dl mbsepratlehs keuvbrhbobhtadbs vlsaht rprlobr dbs rbdlquats mb dahilbhhb EppesltlehLsdaolqub Rhlb rprbssleh qul peurralt rbobttrb bh qubstleh daiierm mb palx mb111, 4www.irlslskreup.erk/bh/rbklehs/asla/ibhtrad-asla/taflclstah/0>2-taflclstah-tjb-ijahklhk-lhsurkbht-tjrbats.aspx8 3Y. ]amfhacjsj, ]urg eh tjb Peeg eg tjb [erdm, Herwbklah ^baibùldmlhk PbseuribIbhtbr (HEPBG) Pbpert, sbptbo`rb 0>10,4www.pbaibùldmlhk.he/Pbklehs/Asla/Ibhtrad-Asla/]urg-eh-tjb-reeg-eg-tjb-werdm8.=Welr B. Ytbpaheva, Lsdaolst ]brrerlso lh tjb Iauiasus ahm Ibhtrad Asla , lhA. Yijolm bt K. Jlhmdb (mlr.), Agtbr tjb [ar eh ]brrer 6 Pbklehad ahm Oudtldatbrad^brspbitlvbs eh Ieuhtbrtbrrerlso Ytratbky, PRYL, Dehmrbs, 0>>


13/24


11 Lgrl

Ibddb-il sbo`db bh bggbt lhstruobhtadlsb par mlggrbhts aitburs,meht dbs tats-Rhls bt dburs addls mb dE]AH, mahs db iamrb mb dburpedltlqub mb oalh tbhmub aux rklobs mAslb ibhtradb, hetaoobhtdEuz`clstah, qulds seddliltbht peur assurbr db trahslt mb dbursqulpbobhts bt peur j`brkbr mbs àsbs mb seutlbh. Lhvbrsbobht, ibs

keuvbrhbobhts mAslb ibhtradb utldlsbht db mahkbr pes par dbs lhsurkspeur kehgdbr dbur preprb lopertahib stratklqub aux ybux mbs tats-Rhls, mb dE]AH, mb da Pusslb bt mbs autrbs pulssahibs rklehadbs.

]relslobobht, dbs preiiupatlehs stratklqubs mb da Pusslb vls--vls mb dAgkjahlstah aprs 0>1= hb iehibrhbht pas sbudbobhtdbxtbhsleh mb da vledbhib bt mb dlhsta`ldlt au rbstb mb dAslb ibhtradb,oals aussl dlhtrt queht dbs tats-Rhls tbhmrb dbur prsbhiboldltalrb mahs da rkleh. Db prbolbr lhtrt peur [asjlhkteh bstvlmbht 6 assurbr mbs reutbs maijbolhbobht siurlsbs bt mbs àsbsarrlrbs mb seutlbh peur dbs treupbs bhierb prsbhtbs bh Agkjahlstah.Ibpbhmaht, uhb tbddb moarijb hb pbut qub susiltbr da oglahib russb

quaht aux rbddbs oetlvatlehs aorlialhbs, bh partliudlbr dkarm murappreijbobht aorliahe-euz`bc bt mb da sertlb mb dErkahlsatleh mutralt mb siurlt ieddbitlvb (E]YI) eprb par ]aijcbht bh fulh 0>10.Ib heuvbd aitlvlsob aorlialh a lhilt da Pusslb sb oehtrbr pdusaitlvb bh Aslb ibhtradb. Da vlsltb mu prslmbht êutlhb au Clrkjlzlstah btau ]amflclstah dauteohb 0>10 mehhb uh lhmlib sur derlbhtatleh qubpeurralt seujaltbr Oesieu 6 uhb ieo`lhalseh maiierms ieheolqubs(hetaoobht mahs db sbitbur mb dhbrklb, bt spiladbobht mahs daiehstruitleh mb àrrakbs jymraudlqubs) bt oldltare-siurltalrbs (par mbsaiierms kdeàux pertaht sur deuvbrturb mb àsbs eu da geurhlturbmqulpbobhts, alhsl qub sur uhb heuvbddb asslstahib oldltalrb).

Au glhad, da stratklb ijelslb par Oesieu peur galrb gaib daheuvbddb mehhb bh Aslb ibhtradb mahs db iehtbxtb mu rbtralt eiilmbhtadmAgkjahlstah bst mlhtbhslglbr da ieepratleh bt dasslstahibieheolqub bt stratklqub avbi dbs partbhalrbs mb da Pusslb obo`rbsmb dE]YI. âramexadbobht, ib preibssus bst iatadys da gels par dapbrspbitlvb mu mpart mbs geribs aorlialhbs bt mb dE]AH bt pardaukobhtatleh rbdatlvb, oob sl tboperalrb, mb da prsbhib bt mbsaitlvlts eiilmbhtadbs bh Aslb ibhtradb. Dattbhtleh pertb par Oesieu da rkleh saiieopakhbra muh oalhtlbh mb da mlstahib avbi Caèud.Ibttb mlstahib melt trb sugglsaoobht dehkub peur iartbr teutblopdliatleh siurltalrb mlrbitb bh Agkjahlstah, oals aussl sugglsaoobhtieurtb peur auterlsbr Oesieu y feubr uh rdb ieheolqub bt

masslstahib aux geribs mb siurlt, qubds qub selt db keuvbrhbobht btda ieadltleh au peuvelr mahs db pays aprs 0>1=.


14/24


10 Lgrl

Db mgl mb depluo agkjah

Da duttb iehtrb db tragli mb mrekub bst da prlhilpadb bxpdliatleh mb dlhtrtqub pertb Oesieu da sta`ldlsatleh mb dAgkjahlstah. Mb krahmbsquahtlts meplais merlklhb agkjahb, prlhilpadbobht mb djrehb,parvlbhhbht bh Pusslb. Ld saklt mu mgl siurltalrb db pdus mlrbit qubOesieu alt rbdbvbr bh prevbhahib mAgkjahlstah.

Daopdbur mb da obhaib

Ld sbralt brreh mb pbhsbr qub db rbtralt eiilmbhtad aura mbsiehsqubhibs iatastrepjlqubs peur da Pusslb iar ld bhtrahbra uhbaukobhtatleh bxpehbhtlbddb mbs bxpertatlehs agkjahbs mb mrekub. Hehqub ib mvbdeppbobht hb iehstltub uh msastrb, oals ibttbiatastrepjb sbst bh radlt mf premultb. Da Pusslb bst mbvbhub dbprbolbr oarij mb iehseooatleh glhadb mjrehb agkjahb au ieursmbs ahhbs 0>>>. Ibttb vedutleh rsudtb bh partlb muh aiirelssbobhtsahs primbht mb da premuitleh mepluo mahs dAgkjahlstah pest-

tadlàh, hetaoobht mbpuls 0>>=. Da iudturb mu pavet a attblht seh plijlsterlqub bh 0>>;, avbi uhb surgaib iudtlvb 02 gels suprlburb ibddbmb 0>>1 mbrhlrb ahhb mu rklob mbs tadlàhs qul avalt aèutl, dlhvbrsb, uh midlh sahs primbht (mb >>, trels gaitburs eht iehtrlù dbxpahslehmb dieheolb mb depluo bh Agkjahlstah 6 uh oahqub meptlehsieheolqubs adtbrhatlvbs mahs dbs zehbs tramltlehhbddbs mb iudturb mupavet 3 da gal`dbssb bt dlhbggliailt mu keuvbrhbobht Carza 3 btdlhtbhslgliatleh mu iehgdlt aro. Ybdeh uhb lmb darkbobht rpahmub bhPusslb, ibttb peussb mb da premuitleh mepluo mahs dAgkjahlstah

pest-tadlàh bst mub da prsbhib mbs geribs eiilmbhtadbs. Oob slbddb bst lhbxaitb, ibttb pbribptleh bst ieoprjbhsl`db, mahs da obsurbe daukobhtatleh mb da premuitleh mepluo a bu dlbu pbhmaht ibttbprlemb bt e da Pusslb a m krbr ibttb iatastrepjb mb djrehb ,teut bh suppertaht dlhmlggrbhib estbhsl`db mbs Eiilmbhtaux.

Da radlt bst qub dieheolb agkjahb mb da mrekub hb rbprsbhtbpas uhb obhaib mlrbitb oafburb peur dbs partlbs prbhahtbs prsbhtbs

2Bh 0>>;, da iudturb mb depluo rbprsbhtalt 1>> jbitarbs bh Agkjahlstah,iehtrb : >>> bh 0>>1. Agkjahlstah Epluo Yurvby 0>>:, Wlbhhb, RHEMI, 0>>:,p. ;.


15/24


19 Lgrl

bh Agkjahlstah. Daopdbur mb da obhaib mlggrb oob bhtrb da Pusslbbt dBurepb 6 db oarij russb mb da mrekub bst suòbrk par djrehbagkjahb, aders qub sur dbs oarijs burepbhs, pdus mlvbrslgls, daiehseooatleh meplais sbst sta`ldlsb bt dalssb mb da pdaib aux gduxirelssahts mb ieiahb bh prevbhahib mAorlqub datlhb, trahsltaht par

dAgrlqub mb dEubst bt rbprsbhtaht uhb obhaib pdus prbssahtb. Dbstats-Rhls hb seht pas mlrbitbobht aggbits par depluo agkjah, qul hbrbprsbhtb pas pdus mb 9 7 % mu oarij deiad mb djrehb7. êur[asjlhkteh, dbs pre`dobs prlhilpaux dls dAgkjahlstah seht dbtbrrerlsob bt dlhsurrbitleh. Da mrekub apparat ieoob uhb qubstlehsbiehmalrb, qul hb rbprsbhtb uh lhtrt qubh taht qub seurib mbglhahibobht mbs lhsurks.

A iehtrarle, vu mb Oesieu, daggdux mjrehb agkjahb bst mbvbhudb pdus krahm mgl pes par dAgkjahlstah, rbprsbhtaht uhb obhaibvltadb peur da siurlt mb sa pepudatleh bt mpassaht mb delh, mu galt mbseh lopait sur da seilt russb, teutbs dbs autrbs qubstlehs dlbs ib

pays. Aders qub db tragli qul trahsltb aitubddbobht par da reutb herm travbrs dAslb ibhtradb rbprsbhtb 02 % mbs bxpertatlehs agkjahbsmjrehb ( tehhbs) bt 12 % mbs bxpertatlehs mepluo (92-=> tehhbs), % mb djrehb qul travbrsb dAslb ibhtradb tbrolhb sa reutb bhPusslb (;2-:> tehhbs par ah);. êur Oesieu, da qubstleh iruiladb hbstpas da quahtlt mb mrekub, oals pdutt da heuvbddb struiturb bt dambstlhatleh glhadb mbs gdux qul partbht vbrs db herm 6 aders qub mahs dbsahhbs 1>>, qul a pbrols mb darkbs sbkobhts mb da pepudatlehmaiimbr da mrekub. Djrehb agkjahb bst iehseoob par 7: % mbsmrekus bh Pusslb (selt 1,; olddlehs sur 0,2 olddlehs mb pbrsehhbs).

7Pbpert eg tjb Lhtbrhatlehad Harietlis Iehtred @earm ger 0>11, Hatlehs uhlbs, Hbw\erc, 0>10 bt bhtrbtlbh avbi mbs bxpbrts mb da Mruk Bhgeribobht Amolhlstratleh(MBA), hevbo`rb 0>10.;[erdm Mruk Pbpert 0>11, RHEMI, Hbw \erc, 0>11, p. ;1 bt ]jb Kdeàd AgkjahEplatb ]ramb 6 A ]jrbat Assbssobht, Wlbhhb, RHEMI, 0>11, p. ==.:[erdm Mruk Pbpert 0>11, p. ;0;9.10, p. 9;7.1>W. Lvahev, Mlrbitbur mu sbrvlib gmrad mb iehtrdb mb da ilriudatleh mbs harietlqubs(GYCH), ilt par dakbhib mb prbssb LH]BPGAZ, 09 oars 0>10.


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1= Lgrl

Dvedutleh mb da pesltleh russb

Da gal`dbssb mb da duttb ahtlmrekub obhb par dbs Eiilmbhtaux bhAgkjahlstah sbxpdlqub par da prlerlt aiiermb aux epratlehssiurltalrbs bt mb iehtrb-lhsurrbitleh. Bh eutrb, depluo agkjah hbrbprsbhtb pas uhb obhaib mlrbitb peur dbs tats-Rhls, bt sbudbobhtuhb obhaib rmultb peur dbs autrbs obo`rbs mb dE]AH bt mb dRhlehburepbhhb. Alhsl, quahm dbs Aorlialhs sb seht bopars mupre`dob, da glh mbs ahhbs 0>>>, lds eht ols daiibht sur mautrbsaspbits mb da duttb ahtl-mrekub qub da Pusslb11.

Mu pelht mb vub aorlialh, uhb ramliatleh oasslvb htalt pasbhvlsakba`db bh Agkjahlstah bt peuvalt sb rvdbr pedltlqubobhtiehtrbpremuitlvb. Rhb tbddb appreijb rlsqualt mb susiltbr mbs treu`dbsseilaux bt prevequbr djestldlt mbs paysahs mbs zehbs mb iudturb mu

pavet. Rhb lhtbrmlitleh krahmb ijbddb auralt aussl pu adlhbr mbssblkhburs mb kubrrb eu mbs idahs dls au keuvbrhbobht meht da`lbhvblddahib eu da hbutradlt talt aiqulsb. Ibs mbrhlbrs tlrbht preglt mbibttb ieheolb mb da mrekub au oelhs autaht qub dbs paysahs, dbstraglquahts bt dbs lhsurks. âr iehsqubht, oadkr da taitlqubmramliatleh arlbhhb seutbhub par dbs tats-Rhls alddburs, parbxbopdb bh Iedeo`lb, damolhlstratleh Eàoa a prlvldkl bhAgkjahlstah uhb ieo`lhalseh mb obsurbs mb seutlbh mbs iudturbsadtbrhatlvbs bt mlhtbrmlitleh sdbitlvbs qul hb vlsalbht qub dbs kreupbsdls aux lhsurks10.

Dbs auterlts russbs eht au mpart pdalm bh gavbur mb obsurbs

ahtlmrekub pdus ramliadbs bh Agkjahlstah, appbdaht uhb pedltlqubmramliatleh krahmb ijbddb, uhb lhtbrmlitleh strlitb bt dambstruitleh mbs daèratelrbs mb trahsgeroatleh par db keuvbrhbobhtagkjah bt sbs seutlbhs. Oesieu a prekrbsslvbobht prls iehsilbhib mbdaopdbur mu mgl bt a pdai da duttb iehtrb ibs traglis au prbolbr rahkmbs prlerlts mb sa pedltlqub mb siurlt. Da fbuhb akbhib gmradbahtlmrekub (GYCH) sb gaoldlarlsalt aders avbi dbs spilglilts bt dbsseuribs mb da obhaib harietlqub agkjahb. Dappreijb russb a vedupas pas peur glhadbobht mpassbr db oahtra mb dramliatleh teutprlx . Bh ieepratleh avbi dEgglib mbs Hatlehs uhlbs iehtrb da mrekubbt db irlob (RHEMI), da Pusslb (qul, da mlggrbhib mb sbs jeoedekubseiilmbhtaux, hb ieuralt pas mb rlsqub sur db tjtrb agkjah) gut da pdus

preoptb rbiehhatrb dbs dlbhs maggalrbs qul uhlssalbht teus typbsmaitburs pedltlie-oldltalrbs agkjahs, y ieoprls mbs rbspehsa`dbsierreopus bt mbs sblkhburs mb kubrrb dls au keuvbrhbobht, `lbh au-mbd mbs sbuds lhsurks. Db ijbg mb da duttb ahtlmrekub russbWlcter Lvahev gut bh 0>11 db prbolbr egglilbd rbobttrb bh iausb dbstbhtatlvbs mb hb dlbr da premuitleh mb mrekub quau tbrrerlsob bt

11Oadkr da prexlolt mbs stratklbs mb duttb ahtlmrekub mbs mbux pays, qul prlvldklbhtuhb appreijb oldltarlsb bt geiadlsb sur da duttb iehtrb d'eggrb mb mrekub `lbh pdusqub sur da rmuitleh mb da mboahmb.10]. Yjahcbr bt B. @uolddbr, R.Y. Yjlgts Agkjah Harietlis Ytratbky , Hbw \erc ]lobs,09 fulddbt 0>>


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12 Lgrl

dlhsurrbitleh. Maprs dRHEMI bt mautrbs bstloatlehs, dbs rbvbhusahhubds mbs lhsurks tlrs mbs lopts sur da iudturb mb depluo mahs dbszehbs qulds iehtrdbht hb mpassbht pas 1=> 1;> olddlehs mbmeddars.19 Ib oehtaht hb rbprsbhtb pas pdus mb 7,2 % mb da vadburhbttb tetadb mb dieheolb agkjahb mb da mrekub (qul sdbvalt

0,7 olddlarms mb meddars bh 0>11)1=. Dakbhib GYCH a bddb aussl vadudbs rbvbhus mbs tadlàhs dls da mrekub 12> olddlehs mb meddars, bt aoob seudlkh qub dbs lhsurks htalbht quuh aitbur olhbur mbib oarij mb da mrekub12. Au èut mu ieoptb, da Pusslb bh bst vbhub pdalmbr peur uhb appreijb ahtlmrekub pdus kdeàdb vls--vls mbdAgkjahlstah, seutbhaht uhb ieo`lhalseh mb obsurbs rprbsslvbs btmb mvbdeppbobht dehk tbrob. Ibttb stratklb mb mvbdeppbobht meltmpassbr da slopdb iehglsiatleh mbs iudturbs, aglh mb obttrb bh pdaibmbs seuribs mb rbvbhu sta`dbs dijbddb hatlehadb, qulrbprsbhtbralbht uhb adtbrhatlvb seile-ieheolqub au oarij mbdepluo17.

Aders qub Oesieu melt galrb gaib aux mgls pess par djrehb dlhtrlbur mb da Pusslb bt db dehk mbs reutbs maijbolhbobht, eh hbpbut bhvlsakbr mb prekrs mura`db mahs ibttb duttb taht qub db pre`dobhbst pas prls da seurib, bh Agkjahlstah oob. taht mehh qub daPusslb hb pbut sb pbrobttrb mlhtbrvbhlr mlrbitbobht mahs db pays, bddbmelt sbh rbobttrb peur da duttb ahtlmrekub aux geribs mb siurlthatlehadbs eu oudtldatradbs prsbhtbs sur pdaib (bt mehi prlhilpadbobhtau keuvbrhbobht agkjah aprs 0>1=). Er, dbs tats-Rhls mboburbrehttrs preà`dbobht db prlhilpad aitbur siurltalrb bxtrarklehad bhAgkjahlstah, oob aprs 0>1=. âr alddburs, oob sl [asjlhkteh aoelhs lhtrt qub Oesieu ieoàttrb db ieoobrib mb depluo, dbstats-Rhls rbstbht lhtrbsss par uhb ieepratleh avbi da Pusslb peur

siurlsbr dburs velbs mb trahslt vbrs dAgkjahlstah.Ibttb sltuatleh bxpdlqub da hbttb prgrbhib mb Oesieu peur uhb

mlvlsleh rklehadb mu travald mahs da duttb ahtlmrekub. Da pbrspbitlvbmu mpart mbs geribs eiilmbhtadbs rbhm lhamapts dbs appbds russbs uhb appreijb mavahtakb rprbsslvb. Oesieu seujaltbralt hahoelhsqub dbs tats-Rhls peursulvbht bt rbhgeribht dbur seutlbh mlrbit da duttb

19]jb Kdeàd Agkjah Eplatb ]ramb 6 A ]jrbat Assbssobht, ep. ilt.S;_, pp. 00, 9>. Welraussl B. Ytbpaheva, Lddlilt mruks ahm lhsurkbhiy lh Agkjahlstah , ^brspbitlvbs eh]brrerlso, Wed. WL, h 0, oal 0>10, p. =1:,4www.tbrrerlsoahadysts.ieo/pt/artlidbs/lssubs/^]v7l0.pmg8.1=

Agkjahlstah Epluo Yurvby 0>11, RHEMI, Wlbhhb, 0>11, p. ;;.12Wlcter Lvahev, ilt mahs Pussla Irltlilzbs HA]E ger Agkjah Jbrelh , @@I Ybrvlibrussb, 0; gvrlbr 0>1>,4www.`ì.ie.uc/russlah/lhtbrhatlehad/0>1>/>0/1>>00;UlvahevUagkjahUjbrelh.sjtod8 3bt mahs [jltb Mbatj airess Pussla, Welib eg Pussla, 00 hevbo`rb 0>11,4jttp6//gsch.kev.ru/lhidumbs/pbrlemlis/rbvlbw/0>11/1109/>7>>1210, dersquld a galtrboarqubr, muraht uhb mlsiussleh sur davbhlr mb dAgkjahlstah aprs db mpart mbsEiilmbhtaux qub < % mu ^L@ mb ib pays prevlbhhbht mu tragli mb mrekub. Yl eh vbutrbopdaibr ibs < %, ld gaut paybr oals pbrsehhb hb vbut paybr Dbs paredbs hbsugglsbht pas 6 ib quld heus gaut, ib seht mbs pedltlqubs ieheolqubs vedehtarlstbs btuhb asslstahib glhahilrb. ^brsehhb ha dalr mb veudelr appertbr seh almb, peurieoobhibr. Wdamlolr êutlhb, lhtbrvlbw Pussla ]emay, 7 sbptbo`rb 0>10,4jttp6//rt.ieo/hbws/vdamlolr-putlh-bxiduslvb-lhtbrvlbw-=:1/8.
http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/articles/issues/PTv6i2.pdfhttp://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/articles/issues/PTv6i2.pdfhttp://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/articles/issues/PTv6i2.pdfhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2010/02/100227_ivanov_afghan_heroin.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2010/02/100227_ivanov_afghan_heroin.shtmlhttp://fskn.gov.ru/includes/periodics/review/2011/1123/060015956/detail.shtmlhttp://fskn.gov.ru/includes/periodics/review/2011/1123/060015956/detail.shtmlhttp://rt.com/news/vladimir-putin-exclusive-interview-481/http://rt.com/news/vladimir-putin-exclusive-interview-481/http://rt.com/news/vladimir-putin-exclusive-interview-481/http://rt.com/news/vladimir-putin-exclusive-interview-481/http://fskn.gov.ru/includes/periodics/review/2011/1123/060015956/detail.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2010/02/100227_ivanov_afghan_heroin.shtmlhttp://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/articles/issues/PTv6i2.pdf


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17 Lgrl

ahtlmrekub bt dasslstahib au mvbdeppbobht bh Agkjahlstah. Muhbibrtalhb oahlrb, Oesieu attbhm oob mbs tats-Rhls bt mb dbursaddls mb dE]AH qulds sbxiutbht bh ieopbhsatleh mb dlopaitmraoatlqub qua bu djrehb agkjahb sur da Pusslb au ieurs mbsahhbs 0>>>, oals aussl peur prvbhlr dbs rpbriusslehs petbhtlbddbs

muh rbtralt aiidr, aders qub da sta`ldlt bt da rsedutleh pedltlqub mupre`dob agkjah hb seht pas aiqulsbs. Mb seh it, da Pusslb peurralt,bt mbvralt, sb geiadlsbr mavahtakb sur dbs reutbs maijbolhbobht qultravbrsbht dAslb ibhtradb (bh aopdlglaht seh seutlbh aux epratlehs mbduttb ahtlmrekub mb sbs partbhalrbs mb da rkleh, oals aussl bh galsahtda preoetleh muhb pdus krahmb ieepratleh rklehadb). Bt ibda, teut bhpeursulvaht sa pedltlqub lhtbrhb mb rprbssleh mbs traglis bt mbrmuitleh mb da mboahmb.

Aukobhtatleh prvlsl`db mbs g dux

Mahs dbs preijalhbs ahhbs, da obhaib qub rbprsbhtb depluo agkjahpeurralt prbhmrb mb daopdbur, peur dbs pays velslhs bt dbs oarijs mbmbstlhatleh glhadb (da Pusslb, da Ijlhb, bt mahs uhb ibrtalhb obsurbdBurepb). êur da Pusslb, daggdux mepluo agkjah vla da reutb hermmbvralt saiiretrb bh ralseh mb pduslburs heuvbaux dobhts, mehtmbux dls dAgkjahlstah bt uh au mpart mbs Eiilmbhtaux.

Ib heuvbau rlsqub oafbur sb oahlgbstb mahs db sum, pelhthvradklqub mb dieheolb agkjahb mb depluo. Dersqub da prsbhibmbs geribs oldltalrbs lhtbrhatlehadbs prbhmra glh seus sa gerob aitubddbbh 0>1=, db grakldb iehtrdb qubxbrib db keuvbrhbobht agkjah mahs dbsprlhilpadbs zehbs mb iudturb mu sum saggal`dlra bhierb mavahtakb, adersqub da prsbhib mbs tadlàhs stbhmra. Lhvlta`dbobht, dbssu`stltutlehs mb iudturbs bt dbs obsurbs mb mvbdeppbobht seutbhubspar dtrahkbr, bh partliudlbr dEiilmbht, veht pbrmrb bh bggliailt. Dbmidlh mb dasslstahib akrliedb, ieo`lh avbi da`sbhib maitlvltsadtbrhatlvbs khratrlibs mb rbvbhus, ohbra au mteurhbobht mbstbrrbs ara`dbs bt lrrlkubs, riboobht vaderlsbs, vbrs da iudturb mupavet.

Iehtralrbobht ib qub dalssb irelrb uhb appreijb supbrglilbddb,db mpart mbs Eiilmbhtaux bt da iehsedlmatleh mu iehtrdb mbs lhsurks

mahs db sum peurralbht peussbr ibs mbrhlbrs rltrbr au oelhspartlbddbobht dlhtbrmlitleh mb 0>>>1;. Oals ibttb pbrspbitlvb bst peurdjburb `lbh delhtalhb. Dbs tadlàhs sbreht sahs meutb iapa`dbsmassurbr uh ibrtalh mbkr da kbstleh mbs zehbs qulds iehtrdbht mahsdb sum, oals lds hb sbreht pas bh pesltleh, au oelhs ieurt tbrob, mbprbhmrb mbs obsurbs addaht dbhiehtrb mb dlhtrt mbs paysahs, mehtgeht partlb dbs iudtlvatburs mb pavet. Bh da`sbhib mautrbs seuribs mb

1; Ieoob lhmlqu pdus jaut, dbs tadlàhs hb seht pas dbs prlhilpaux `hglilalrbs mutragli mb mrekub, oob d'lhtrlbur mb d'Agkjahlstah, bt lds eht mf galt da prbuvb mb dburiapailt galrb rbspbitbr uhb lhtbrmlitleh strlitb mb da iudturb mu pavet.


19/24


1; Lgrl

rbvbhus bt gaib da àlssb mb dalmb lhtbrhatlehadb, ibs mbrhlbrsdarklreht mehi lhvlta`dbobht dbs zehbs mb iudturb mu pavet, obttaht preglt da mlspehl`ldlt mb tbrrbs ara`dbs sur mbs surgaibs bhierb pdustbhmubs quauparavaht. Ib iehstat hb slkhlglb pas qub da qubstleh bstidesb bt quld hy a auiuhb ijahib qub dbs tadlàhs prbhhbht part da

sedutleh. Ib pelht peurralt galrb partlb mb dakbhma mbs hkeilatlehs, eupeurralt trb aèrm pdus tarm, vla mbs lhtbromlalrbs, eu dersqub dbslhsurks (eu ibrtalhbs gaitlehs) lhtkrbreht uh aiierm mb partakbmibhtradls mu peuvelr (sl uh tbd aiierm velt db feur).

Da qubstleh mb dapprevlslehhbobht bh jrehb vla da reutb hermhb pbut sb dloltbr au sbud sum agkjah, mijlr par da kubrrb. Da rbprlsbmbs iudturbs mahs db herm iehstltub uh autrb gaitbur mb rlsqub, mahs daobsurb e dbs zehbs iudtlvbs seht rbdatlvbobht rbstrblhtbs, oals dapremuitleh bt db ragglhbobht mjrehb seht trs mvbdepps. Da oeltlmb djrehb qul trahsltb par da reutb herm prevlbht mu sum, oals dautrboeltl (bhvlreh =2 tehhbs par ah) bst premultb mahs db herm mb

dAgkjahlstah, prlhilpadbobht mahs da prevlhib mu @amacjsjah1:

auherm eubst, partlr mepluo iudtlv deiadbobht eu mb steics mepluo,aprs db midlh mb ibs iudturbs da glh mbs ahhbs 0>>>. Ibs steicssaobhulsaht, ibst uhb rbprlsb mbs iudturbs qul a satlsgalt da mboahmbmbs daèratelrbs bh 0>11-0>101.

Dbs gaitburs mb rlsqub bh Agkjahlstah sb ieo`lhbht avbi mbheuvbaux mgls db dehk mbs reutbs bopruhtbs par dbs traglquahts travbrs dAslb ibhtradb. Dbs gdux sta`dbs mjrehb qul phtrbht bh

Pusslb vla da reutb herm mbpuls ibs mbrhlrbs ahhbs (dbs ;2 :> tehhbs par ah) seht obttrb bh rbkarm mb da àlssb slkhlgliatlvb mbssalslbs mb mrekub mahs dbs pays mb da rkleh (97 % mb àlssb peurdepluo bt 02 % mb àlssb peur djrehb)01. Ibttb mehhb dalssb pbhsbr qub da iapailt mb duttb ahtlmrekub saobhulsb mahs ibs tats,mu galt muh aiirelssbobht mb da ierruptleh pratlqub par dbs traglquahts.Dbs oeybhs mb da duttb ahtlmrekub seht mseroals trs bh rbtarm parrappert da iapailt mb ibs mbrhlbrs utldlsbr dbs heuvbddbseppertuhlts ieheolqubs qub rbprsbhtbht dbxpahsleh mbslhgrastruiturbs trahsrklehadbs mb trahspert, daiirelssbobht mbsijahkbs bt dbxtbhsleh mb da zehb mb dl`rb-ijahkb aprs damjslehmu Cazacjstah dRhleh meuahlrb mb da Pusslb bt mb da @lderusslb.

êur da Pusslb, db siharle db pdus gavera`db au ieurs mbspreijalhbs ahhbs sbralt uhb aukobhtatleh dloltb mbs gdux mepluoarrlvaht vla da reutb herm, puls uhb sta`ldlsatleh, sahs meutb uh hlvbau

1:Eplatb Gdews ]jreukj Hertjbrh Agkjahlstah ahm Ibhtrad Asla 6 A ]jrbatAssbssobht, RHEMI, 0>10, pp. 1>, 01 gg. 4www.uhemi.erk/meiuobhts/mata-ahm-ahadysls/Ytumlbs/Agkjahlstah hertjbrh reutb 0>10 wb`.pmg8.110, Yuooary Glhmlhks, RHEMI, Wlbhhb, 0>10, p. =.0>Eplatb Gdews tjreukj Hertjbrh Agkjahlstah ahm Ibhtrad Asla, pp. 9=, 9;.01 Da sbudb bxibptleh bst dEuz`clstah, e dbs salslbs mb mrekub eht aukobht, bhpartlb krib uh oblddbur iehtrdb mbs grehtlrbs, par rappert aux tats velslhs.L`lm., p. =7.
http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/Afghanistan%20northern%20route%202012%20web.pdfhttp://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/Afghanistan%20northern%20route%202012%20web.pdfhttp://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/Afghanistan%20northern%20route%202012%20web.pdfhttp://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/Afghanistan%20northern%20route%202012%20web.pdf


20/24


1: Lgrl

pdus dbv quaitubddbobht. Db siharle mu plrb vbrralt uhb rerlbhtatlehmb da tramltlehhbddb reutb `adcahlqub maijbolhbobht vbrs dBurepb, qulsb rbpertbralt sur da reutb herm bt gbralt heuvbau mu tbrrltelrb russbuhb pdatbgerob mb trahslt peur djrehb agkjahb.


21/24


1< Lgrl

Iehidusleh

Da Pusslb, aitbur rklehad, a galt part mb sbs preiiupatlehs mbsiehsqubhibs mu rbtralt mb dE]AH mAgkjahlstah. Bh 0>19, mbuxheuvbaux dobhts sb seht afeuts.

Da prbolrb bst da vedeht mu prslmbht E`aoa bt mb sa heuvbddbqulpb ijarkb mb pedltlqub trahkrb, m'aiidrbr db rbtralt mbstreupbs, oals aussl mb oalhtbhlr sur pdaib aussl pbu mb geribs qubpessl`db aprs 0>1=. Ibttb prilpltatleh pbut sbo`dbr ieopdlqubr da

sltuatleh sur db tbrralh, bh raiieurilssaht da prlemb mb trahsltleh, ib qulseudvb mbs lhtbrrekatlehs mahs d'bhsbo`db mb da rkleh quaht aupetbhtlbd mb msta`ldlsatleh. Aprs rgdbxleh, dahhehib par [asjlhktehmuh rbtralt quasl lhtkrad ieopertb au oelhs uh aspbit pesltlg 6 ibstuhb iehmltleh hibssalrb peur euvrlr da velb mbs hkeilatlehs mbibssbz-db-gbu avbi dbs lhsurks (meht dbs dbambrs rbgusbht mbhtaobrteutb mlsiussleh srlbusb taht qub dbs geribs eiilmbhtadbs sbrehtprsbhtbs bh Agkjahlstah). Oob sl, `lbh bhtbhmu, mb tbddbshkeilatlehs hb prsakbht pas muh preibssus mb palx lhtbr-agkjah qula`eutlralt uh rkdbobht pedltlqub bt uh aiierm mb partakb mupeuvelr.

Db mbuxlob gaitbur, qul hbst pas dl dAgkjahlstah pbr sb, bst prbhmrb bh ieoptb 6 db rbgrelmlssbobht ribht mbs rbdatlehs bhtrbOesieu bt [asjlhkteh (bt mahs uhb oelhmrb obsurb bhtrb da Pusslb btdEiilmbht), hetaoobht mbpuls da glh 0>10. Ibttb vedutleh apratlqubobht ols glh da prlemb eptlolstb mb heuvbau mpart (rbsbt) queht iehhu dbs rbdatlehs `ldatradbs mbpuls 0>>19, meht dbsautburs seupehhs seht erlklhalrbs mu Herm-Iauiasb), dbs pre`dobssiurltalrbs, qul rbprsbhtbht uh lhtrt outubd peur da Pusslb bt dbstats-Rhls, ieoprbhhbht db iehtrdb mbs arobobhts stratklqubs, damgbhsb ahtlolssldb bt dAgkjahlstah. Da ieepratleh siurltalrb btpedltlqub sb peursult bt peurralt oob sappregehmlr au oelhs tahtqub dbs tats-Rhls bt dburs addls Eiilmbhtaux iehsbrvbht mbs lhtrts


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0> Lgrl

oafburs bh Agkjahlstah. Bt sl ibs lhtrts midlhbht, ld bh lra mb oobpeur db petbhtlbd mb ieepratleh.

Aders oob qub da prsbhib oldltalrb eiilmbhtadb prbhm glh seussa gerob aitubddb, rlbh, y ieoprls db mgl oafbur qub rbprsbhtb daggdux

mb mrekub agkjahb, hb pbut peussbr da Pusslb feubr uh rdb pduslopertaht bh Agkjahlstah. Oob sl Oesieu iehsbrvb uhb ibrtalhbmlstahib avbi Caèud, db msbhkakbobht bt da glh loolhbhtb mb daprsbhib oldltalrb eiilmbhtadb eht mf stloud uhb oehtb bhpulssahib bt uhb bxtbhsleh mu mpdelbobht russb bh Aslb ibhtradb, surdbs pdahs ieheolqub bt siurltalrb.

Da Pusslb pbut sbo`dbr teut aussl oiehtbhtb mb da prsbhibeiilmbhtadb bh Agkjahlstah qub mu mpart mb ibs geribs. Hahoelhs, dapbribptleh mu rbtralt eiilmbhtad mpbhm surteut mb da oahlrb mehtOesieu vadub sbs preprbs preiiupatlehs siurltalrbs. Dbs mbuxprlhilpaux bhfbux peur da Pusslb, au rbkarm mb da sltuatleh agkjahb dbtbrrerlsob bt da mrekub , hb melvbht pas trb iehgehmus, oob slds sbrbieupbht bh ibrtalhs pelhts. Bh gehitleh mb da prlerlt attrlùb ibsobhaibs bt mb dvaduatleh qul bh bst galtb, Oesieu mbvra lhgdijlr sapedltlqub agkjahb. Ibs oemlgliatlehs haggbitbreht pas sbudbobhtdattltumb siurltalrb mb da Pusslb oals aussl seh appreijb murkdbobht pedltlqub agkjah. Bddbs mtbrolhbreht kadbobht sl dbmsbhkakbobht eiilmbhtad sbra `lbhvbhu eu heh.

Yl daiibht bst ols pdus qub mb ralseh sur db tbrrerlsob bt db rlsqubmbxpahsleh mb dlhsta`ldlt bh Aslb ibhtradb, dbs Eiilmbhtaux sbrehtsahs meutb rbkrbtts. Dlhslstahib mb ibrtalhs mlrlkbahts eu ahadystbsrussbs sur da obhaib tbrrerlstb dlb dAgkjahlstah aders quld hbxlstbpas maitlvlt hl mb dlbh mlrbit bhtrb dbs kreupbs tbrrerlstbs prsbhts

mahs ib pays bt ibux aitlgs bh Pusslb peurralt aussl rvdbr uhbappreijb pdus utldltalrb, dlb da vedeht mb Oesieu mb rbhgeribr dbsaddlahibs bt mb sta`ldlsbr dAslb ibhtradb. Ld peurralt kadbobht saklrmuhb oahlpudatleh mb ibttb obhaib , aglh mb sattlrbr dbs èhhbskribs mbs rklobs mb da rkleh bh aiqulbsaht dbur e`sbssleh mb dbxpertatleh bt mb dbxtbhsleh mu tbrrerlsob bt mb daitlvlsoblsdaolstb partlr mb dAgkjahlstah. Ibttb moarijb prsbhtb db rlsqubmb raobhbr da Pusslb mahs da deklqub iehtrbpremuitlvb bt iehtrevbrsbmb da kubrrb iehtrb db tbrrerlsob . Bddb peurralt, mb pdus, rbobttrb bhiausb ibrtalhs aspbits mb da pedltlqub agkjahb mb Oesieu, surteut surda duttb ahtlmrekub bt db rkdbobht pedltlqub mu iehgdlt.

Yl ibst da qubstleh mb da mrekub qul bst prlvldklb, da prlerlt mbdappreijb pedltlqub sbra mb obttrb glh au iehgdlt aro bt mb preoeuvelruh aiierm mb partakb mu peuvelr, aglh massurbr dbs iehmltlehsolhloadbs muhb keuvbrhahib gehitlehhbddb bt dkltlob da gels Caèud bt mahs db sum (sahs daqubddb auiuhb obsurb bggliaib mbiehtrdb bt mb duttb ahtlmrekub ha mb ijahib mtrb olsb bh uvrb).Ibttb pbrspbitlvb lopdlqub qub da glh mb da prsbhib oldltalrbeiilmbhtadb, iehmltleh hibssalrb peur db mùt mb hkeilatlehspedltlqubs lhtbr-agkjahbs irml`dbs, sbralt da `lbhvbhub mu pelht mb vubmb Oesieu, oob sl uh msbhkakbobht tetad hbst pas seujalta`db,


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01 Lgrl

hetaoobht bh tbrobs mb rbiehstruitleh bt masslstahib aumvbdeppbobht.

Duh mbs oeybhs pbrobttaht mquldl`rbr ibs mbux mlobhslehsmahs da pedltlqub agkjahb mb da Pusslb sbralt mb dbs dlbr mbs ibhtrbs

mb kravlt kepedltlqubs mlggrbhts. Bh mautrbs tbrobs, ld iehvlbht mbpbribvelr db rlsqub muh mèrmbobht mu tbrrerlsob bt mb dlhsta`ldltavaht teut mahs db iehtbxtb ibhtrb-aslatlqub 6 bh ib qul iehibrhb dapedltlqub mb Oesieu vls--vls mb dAgkjahlstah, uhb pdaibprpehmrahtb melt trb galtb da duttb iehtrb db tragli mb mrekubs. Rh tbdquldl`rb peurralt teut galt trb treuv. Ld bxlstb au oelhs uh pdus pbtltmheolhatbur ieoouh ibs mbux appreijbs 6 dlhtrt vlmbht mb daPusslb peur uhb aodleratleh mb da siurlt bt mb da keuvbrhahib bhAgkjahlstah. Ibst lhmlspbhsa`db sl Oesieu seujaltb sb pretkbr, muhbpart, iehtrb da prepakatleh mb dlhsta`ldlt vbrs db rbstb mb dAslbibhtradb, bt, mb dautrb, iehtrb da obhaib prlhilpadb qub rbprsbhtb peurda seilt russb db tragli mjrehb agkjahb.

Bh oatlrb mb duttb ahtlmrekub, da Pusslb mbvra sbh rbobttrb Caèud, qubd qub selt db peuvelr bh pdaib. Wu dlopertahib mbdieheolb mb depluo dijbddb agkjahb bt rklehadb, da Pusslb mbvrapreoeuvelr uh prekraoob ahtlmrekub, mlrbitbobht eu vla mbslhtbromlalrbs. Bddb mbvra peur ibda samrbssbr heh sbudbobht aukeuvbrhbobht agkjah ibhtrad (qubddb qub selt da ieopesltleh mb daguturb ieadltleh), oals aussl teus ibux qul mlspesbreht muh mbkr mbiehtrdb sur dbs prlhilpadbs zehbs mb premuitleh mb mrekub mahs db summu pays, bt aux geribs pedltlqubs mu herm, rkleh qul mboburb uhbpdaqub teurhahtb mu ragglhakb bt mb daijbolhbobht mb da mrekub sur dareutb herm.

Mahs dbs zehbs e dieheolb mb da mrekub sb iehfukub avbi uhiehgdlt aro predehk, auiuhb sedutleh au pre`dob mu harietragli hbstbhvlsakba db sahs rsedutleh mu iehgdlt. Da peursultb mb da iehgrehtatleharob bhtravb teutb keuvbrhahib bggliaib. Bt sahs uhb tbddbkeuvbrhahib, auiuhb pedltlqub ahtlmrekub hb pbut trb olsb bh pdaib,qubddb selt rprbsslvb eu heh, eu quld saklssb muhb ieo`lhalseh mbobsurbs iebriltlvbs bt mb mvbdeppbobht. Yahs seutlbh trahkbr sur dbpdah mb da siurlt, db keuvbrhbobht ibhtrad ha qub pbu mb ijahibs mbiehsbrvbr eu mb rta`dlr seh iehtrdb sur db sum. Oob uhbamolhlstratleh olhloadb mb da rkleh rbqulbrt uhb sedutleh au hlvbauhatlehad bt uh aiierm mb partakb mu peuvelr auqubd melt prbhmrb part dbheyau mur mb dlhsurrbitleh tadlàhb. Dbs hkeilatlehs avbi dbs lhsurksrbstbht lopreà`dbs taht qub mbs geribs oldltalrbs trahkrbs sehtprsbhtbs, oals bddbs peurralbht sb tbhlr aprs dbur mpart.

Da Pusslb hbst pas uh aitbur milslg mu preibssus pedltlqub eumu preibssus mb palx lhtra-agkjah. Hahoelhs, bddb mlspesb mb iartbs feubr peur gaildltbr lhmlrbitbobht ibs preibssus. Bddb vedubra sahsmeutb vbrs uhb appreijb oelhs lmedeklqub bt pdus prakoatlqub bh vubmuhb sedutleh pedltlqub.

Oesieu mbvralt appertbr seh seutlbh teutb rsedutleh qulkarahtlralt uh oblddbur gehitlehhbobht bt uhb dkltlolt aiirub mukeuvbrhbobht agkjah. Yur db pdah pratlqub, dbs auterlts russbs


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peurralbht, par bxbopdb, peussbr dbs ahilbhs obo`rbs mb dAddlahib muHerm (avbi dbsqubds bddbs eht karm mbs iehtaits bt qubddbs pbuvbhtpbut-trb lhgdubhibr) vbrs uh aiierm hatlehad mb partakb mu peuvelrauqubd prbhmralbht part ibrtalhs dobhts tadl`ahs. Mahs db oobtbops, da Pusslb peurralt prepesbr aux hermlstbs uh seutlbh

suppdobhtalrb, quld selt gerobd eu lhgerobd, aglh mapalsbr dbursiralhtbs sahs meutb fustlglbs quaht au gutur systob pedltlqub mbdAgkjahlstah.

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