S&P envisage de dégrader les Etats-Unis : le rapport

8/6/2019 S&P envisage de dégrader les Etats-Unis : le rapport

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sp-envisage-de-degrader-les-etats-unis-le-rapport 1/7

Research Update:

United States of America'AAA/A-1+' Ratings Placed On

CreditWatch Negative On RisingRisk Of Policy StalematePrimary Credit Analyst:Nikola G Swann, CFA, FRM, Toronto (1) 416-507-2582;[email protected]

Secondary Contacts:John Chambers, CFA, New York (1) 212-438-7344;[email protected] T Beers, London (44) 20-7176-7101;[email protected]

Table Of Contents

Overview

Rating Action

Rationale

CreditWatch

Related Criteria And Research

Ratings List

July 14, 2011

www.standardandpoors.com/ratingsdirect 1

879039 | 300978131



Research Update:

United States of America 'AAA/A-1+' RatingsPlaced On CreditWatch Negative On Rising

Risk Of Policy Stalemate

Overview• Standard & Poor's has placed its 'AAA' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term

sovereign credit ratings on the United States of America on CreditWatch

with negative implications.

• Standard & Poor's uses CreditWatch to indicate a substantial likelihood

of it taking a rating action within the next 90 days, or in response to

events presenting significant uncertainty to the creditworthiness of an

issuer. Today's CreditWatch placement signals our view that, owing to the

dynamics of the political debate on the debt ceiling, there is at least a

one-in-two likelihood that we could lower the long-term rating on the

U.S. within the next 90 days. We have also placed our short-term rating

on the U.S. on CreditWatch negative, reflecting our view that the current

situation presents such significant uncertainty to the U.S.'

creditworthiness.

• Since we revised the outlook on our 'AAA' long-term rating to negative

from stable on April 18, 2011, the political debate about the U.S.'

fiscal stance and the related issue of the U.S. government debt ceiling

has, in our view, only become more entangled. Despite months of

negotiations, the two sides remain at odds on fundamental fiscal policy

issues. Consequently, we believe there is an increasing risk of a

substantial policy stalemate enduring beyond any near-term agreement to

raise the debt ceiling.

• As a consequence, we now believe that we could lower our ratings on the

U.S. within three months.

• We may lower the long-term rating on the U.S. by one or more notches into

the 'AA' category in the next three months, if we conclude that Congress

and the Administration have not achieved a credible solution to the

rising U.S. government debt burden and are not likely to achieve one in

the foreseeable future.

• We still believe that the risk of a payment default on U.S. government

debt obligations as a result of not raising the debt ceiling is small,

though increasing. However, any default on scheduled debt service

payments on the U.S.' market debt, however brief, could lead us to revise

the long-term and short-term ratings on the U.S. to 'SD.' Under our

rating definitions, 'SD,' or selective default, refers to a situation

where an issuer, the federal government in this case, has defaulted on

some of its debt obligations, while remaining current on its other debt

obligations.

• We may also lower the long-term rating and affirm the short-term rating

if we conclude that future adjustments to the debt ceiling are likely to

Standard & Poor’s | RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal | July 14, 2011 2

879039 | 300978131



be the subject of political maneuvering to the extent that questions

persist about Congress' and the Administration's willingness and ability

to timely honor the U.S.' scheduled debt obligations.

Rating Action

On July 14, 2011, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed its 'AAA'long-term and 'A-1+' short-term sovereign credit ratings on the United States

of America on CreditWatch with negative implications.

RationaleThe CreditWatch action reflects our view of two separate but related issues.

The first issue is the continuing failure to raise the U.S. government debt

ceiling so as to ensure that the government will be able to continue to make

scheduled payments on its debt obligations. The second pertains to our current

view of the likelihood that Congress and the Administration will agree upon a

credible, medium-term fiscal consolidation plan in the foreseeable future.

On May 16, 2011, the U.S. government reached its Congressionally mandated

ceiling for federal debt of $14,294 billion. Since then, the government has

undertaken exceptional measures to avoid breaching the debt ceiling. Secretary

of Treasury Timothy Geithner wrote, "The unique role of Treasury securities in

the global financial system means that the consequences of default would be

particularly severe.... Even a short-term default could cause irrevocable

damage to the American economy." The Treasury currently estimates that it will

have exhausted these exceptional measures on or about Aug. 2, 2011, at which

time it will either have to curtail certain current expenses or risk missing a

scheduled payment of interest or principal on Treasury securities held by the

public.

Standard & Poor's still anticipates that lawmakers will raise the debt ceiling

by the end of July to avoid those outcomes. However, if the government is

forced to undergo a sudden, unplanned fiscal contraction--as a result of

Treasury efforts to conserve cash and avoid default absent an agreement to

raise the debt ceiling--we think that the effect on consumer sentiment, market

confidence, and, thus, economic growth will likely be detrimental and long

lasting. If the government misses a scheduled debt payment, we believe the

effect would be even more significant and, under our criteria, would result in

Standard & Poor's lowering the long-term and short-term ratings on the U.S. to

'SD' until the payment default was cured.

Congress and the Administration are debating various fiscal consolidation

proposals. At the high end, budget savings of $4 trillion phased in over 10 to

12 years proposed by the Adminstration, (separately) by Congressional leaders,

as well as by the Fiscal Commission in its December 2010 report, if

accompanied by growth-enhancing reforms, could slow the deterioration of the

U.S. net general government debt-to-GDP ratio, which is currently nearing 75%.

Under our baseline macroeconomic scenario, net general government debt would


879039 | 300978131

Research Update: United States of America 'AAA/A-1+' Ratings Placed On CreditWatch Negative On Rising RiskOf Policy Stalemate



reach 84% of GDP by 2013. (Our baseline scenario assumes near 3% annual real

growth and a post-2012 phaseout of the December 2010 extension of the 2001 and

2003 tax cuts.) Such a percentage indicates a relatively weak government debt

trajectory compared with those of the U.S.' closest 'AAA' rated peers (France,

Germany, the U.K., and Canada).

We expect the debt trajectory to continue increasing in the medium term if a

medium-term fiscal consolidation plan of $4 trillion is not agreed upon. If

Congress and the Administration reach an agreement of about $4 trillion, and

if we to conclude that such an agreement would be enacted and maintained

throughout the decade, we could, other things unchanged, affirm the 'AAA'

long-term rating and A-1+ short-term ratings on the U.S.

Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue

measures that Congress and the Administration might agree on. But for any

agreement to be credible, we believe it would require support from leaders of

both political parties.

Congress and the Administration might also settle for a smaller increase in

the debt ceiling, or they might agree on a plan that, while avoiding a

near-term default, might not, in our view, materially improve our base case

expectation for the future path of the net general government debt-to-GDP

ratio. U.S. political debate is currently more focused on the need for

medium-term fiscal consolidation than it has been for a decade. Based on this,

we believe that an inability to reach an agreement now could indicate that an

agreement will not be reached for several more years. We view an inability to

timely agree and credibly implement medium-term fiscal consolidation policy as

inconsistent with a 'AAA' sovereign rating, given the expected government debt

trajectory noted above.

CreditWatchFurther delays in raising the debt ceiling could lead us to conclude that a

default is more possible than we previously thought. If so, we could lower the

long-term rating on the U.S. government this month and leave both the

long-term and short-term ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications

pending developments. If Congress and the Administration agree to raise the

debt ceiling (with commensurate fiscal adjustments), we aim to review the

details of such agreement within the next 90 days to determine whether, in our

view, it is sufficient to stabilize the U.S.' medium-term debt dynamics. If we

conclude that the agreement would likely achieve this end, all other things

unchanged, we would expect to affirm both the long- and short-term ratings and

assign a stable outlook.

If a debt ceiling agreement does not include a plan that seems likely to us to

credibly stabilize the U.S.' medium-term debt dynamics but the result of the

debt ceiling negotiations leads us to believe that such a plan could be

negotiated within a few months, all other things unchanged, we expect to

affirm both the long- and short-term ratings and assign a negative outlook,


879039 | 300978131




pending review of the eventual plan. If such an agreement is reached, but we

do not believe that it likely will stabilize the U.S.' debt dynamics, we,

again all other things unchanged, would expect to lower the long-term 'AAA'

rating, affirm the 'A-1+' short-term rating, and assign a negative outlook on

the long-term rating.

Following today's CreditWatch listings for the long- and short-term credit

ratings on the U.S. government, Standard & Poor's will issue separate media

releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related

entities, financial institutions, insurance companies, public finance, and

structured finance sectors.

Related Criteria And Research• U.S. Weekly Financial Notes: Lesson Of The Week--Expect The Unexpected,

July 8, 2011

• Sovereign Ratings Criteria, June 30, 2011

• 2011 Midyear Credit Outlook: Unresolved Economic And Regulatory IssuesLoom Large, June 22, 2011

• Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More

Green, Now, June 21, 2011

• United States of America 'AAA/A-1+' Rating Affirmed; Outlook Revised To

Negative, April 18, 2011

• Fiscal Challenges Weighing On The 'AAA' Sovereign Credit Rating On The

Government Of The United States, April 18, 2011

• A Closer Look At The Revision Of The Outlook On The U.S. Government Rating

, April 18, 2011

• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessments, March 8, 2011

• Behind The Political Brinkmanship Of Raising The U.S. Debt Ceiling, Jan.

18, 2011

• U.S. Government Cost To Resolve And Relaunch Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac

Could Approach $700 Billion, Nov. 4, 2010,

• Global Aging 2010: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Cost A Lot More Green,

Oct. 25, 2010,

• Après Le Déluge, The U.S. Dollar Remains The Key International Currency,"

March 10, 2010,

• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: United States of America, Feb.

1, 2010

Ratings List

CreditWatch/Outlook Action

To From

United States of America (Unsolicited Ratings)

Federal Reserve System

Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Unsolicited Ratings)

Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Negative/A-1+


879039 | 300978131




This unsolicited rating(s) was initiated by Standard & Poor's. It may be based

solely on publicly available information and may or may not involve the

participation of the issuer. Standard & Poor's has used information from

sources believed to be reliable based on standards established in our Credit

Ratings Information and Data Policy but does not guarantee the accuracy,adequacy, or completeness of any information used.

Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on

the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. All ratings affected

by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at

www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left

column.


879039 | 300978131




S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the rightto disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and

www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party

redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.

S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result,certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the

confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process.

Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or

recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in anyform or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or

clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P's opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or

an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence orindependent verification of any information it receives.

No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified,

reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content

shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees oragents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or

omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is

provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OFMERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT'S FUNCTIONING

WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any

party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without

limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

Copyright © 2011 by Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC (S&P), a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.


879039 | 300978131

Documents

S&P envisage de dégrader les Etats-Unis : le rapport