Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en Afrique de l’Ouest et du Centre
The global economic crisis – Including children in the policy responseODI-UNICEF, London, November 9-10, 2009
Burkina Faso: Lacina Balma and Samuel KaboreCameroon: Christian Emini and Paul Ningaye
Ghana: Theodore Antwi-Asare, Edgar Cooke and Daniel TwerefouRegional: Sami Bibi, John Cockburn, Massa Coulibaly, Ismaël Fofana and Luca Tiberti
Commissioned by UNICEF’s West and Central Africa Regional Office
The Poverty and Economic Policy (PEP) Research network• Capacity building, research funding and promotion of developing country
researchers• Research grants (and scientific support) to conduct policy research on
poverty issues.• Open and competitive global call for proposals (deadline: Jan. 6, 2010)• 150 projects in Africa, Asia and Latin America (45.7% female; 22.5% under
30): Since 2002• Activities: training workshops, study visits, distance support, general
meetings, national and international policy conferences, working papers, journal articles, policy briefs, presentations in international conferences, newsletters.
• Child welfare topics: Policy impact evaluation, community-based poverty monitoring, macro-micro shock and policy simulations, multidimensional poverty analysis, implementing the capabilities approach, incidence analysis…
• Offices: Africa (Dakar), Asia (Manila), Latin America (Lima) and Quebec.• Funding: AusAID, CIDA and IDRC www.pep-net.org
Export prices/demand
Import prices
Impacts
Household (micro models)
Remittances
FDI
Foreign aid
Input prices
Consumer prices
National economy (CGE model)
Producer prices
Child welfare: monetary poverty, hunger, schooling, labor, health
Employ-ment
Objective: Simulate child welfare impacts of the global crisis and policy responses in Burkina Faso, Cameroon and Ghana (and S. Africa)
Methodology1. Macro impacts: CGE model capturing main channels of impact of the global
crisis on the national economy, notably prices, wages and employment.2. Child welfare impacts
– Monetary poverty: Based on changes in prices, wages, employment and remittances
– Hunger (caloric adequacy): Consumption behavior + nutritional tables– School/child labor participation: Econometric estimation: f(real income)– Health access/choice of supplier: Econometric estimation: f(real income)
3. Simulations– Business as usual (no crisis): historic trends (6-8 years)– Crisis
- 2009: Various sources (IMF, UNCTAD, national, etc.)- 2010: Stagnation, except import prices- 2011: Back to historic growth trends
– Policy response (financed by foreign aid equal to 1% of 2008 GDP) Food subsidies Child cash transfers: proxy means, no administrative costs, sharing
Impacts on monetary poverty and hunger in BF
-6
-5-4
-3-2
-1
01
2
3
BaU Crisis Food subsidy Cash transfer
Change in child monetary rate (% points) compared to the base year (36.3%)
2009 2010 2011
-6-5-4-3-2-10123
BaU Crisis Food subsidy Cash transfer
Change in hunger (% points) compared to the base year (64.9)
2009 2010 2011
Education and Child Labour: 6 to 10 years
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
BaU Crisis Price subsidy Cash transfer
Change in net participation rate, 6-10 years old (% points) compared to
the base year (32.4%)
2009 2010 2011
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
BaU Crisis Price subsidy Cash transfer
Change in child labour, 6-10 years old (% points) compared to the base year
(40.3%)
2009 2010 2011
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
BaU Crisis Price subsidy Cash transfer
Change in child labour, 11-14 years old (% points) compared to the base year
(52.6%)
2009 2010 2011
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
BaU Crisis Price subsidy Cash transfer
Change in net participation rate, 11-14 years old (% points) compared to the
base year (37.6%)
2009 2010 2011
Education and Child Labour: 11 to 14 years
Health: 0 to 14 years
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
BaU Crisis Price subsidy Cash transfer
Change in consultation rate among ill children, 0-14 years old, (% points), in
comparison with base year (67.6%)
2009 2010 2011
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
BaU Crisis Price subsidy Cash transfer
Change in consultation rate at traditional healers (% points) in
comparison with the base year (16.7%)
2009 2010 2011
Targetting (proxy means)Cash transfers target predicted poor children = f(demographics, housing conditions,
durable goods, region): easily observable and non-manipulable characteristics
Predicted statusnational urban rural
Actual status
non-poor poor
non-poor poor
non-poor poor
Burkina non-poor 63.1 36.9 74.7 25.3 59.4 40.6 poor 23.4 76.6 9.6 90.4 24.4 75.6Cameroon non-poor 70.0 30.0 93.3 6.7 41.7 58.3 poor 9.9 90.1 58.1 41.9 5.1 94.9Ghana non-poor 60.8 39.2 67.9 32.1 55.0 45.0 poor 19.2 80.8 23.9 76.1 17.9 82.1
Exclusion errors
Inclusion errors
Cash transfer amount
Burkina Faso12340 CFA francs per child
Cameroon:21065 CFA francs per child
Ghana:23.10 cedis per child
Take-home lessons•Crisis brings many shocks: imports, exports, FDI, aid, remittances•Complex impacts: wages, employment, self-employment income, consumer prices•Strongly increases monetary poverty and hunger (up to 10 percentage points)•Mildly reduces schooling and recourse to (modern) health services (up to 1 percentage point), while increasing child labor•Food subsidies marginally offset the impacts of the crisis•(Well-) targeted cash transfers are far more effective•(Pursuit of fiscal balance further (slightly) worsens the impacts)•Future work: focus subsidies on poor child foods, focus CTs on youngest children, other financing (domestic taxes, deficit, other cuts), other dimensions (mortality, morbidity, nutritional status, etc.)
Impact of the global crisis on child povertyin West and Central Africa