Vincent Cloutier 1
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
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Global Economic Outlook : New Horizons for Agriculture & Agri-food
Vincent Cloutier, agr.
Chief Economist
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
MATTER OF PERSPECTIVE…
FOUR
NO…
THREE!
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Economy Environment
Technology
Farmers
Consumer
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Shift of the economic center of gravity
Source : McKinsey Institute
1970 1960
1950
1820
1990 2000
1913 1940
1500 1000
1980
AD1
2025
2010
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Source: IMF
IFMA 20
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Source : IMF
China, India, Indonesia
IFMA 20
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Source : The Economist 1970 80 90 2000 10 14
300
200
100
0
Regional Trade Agreements – In Force
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Seeds: Highly concentrated
Rank Company Seed sales 2014
(MUSD)
Share of
world’s market
1 Monsanto (USA) 10 740 25%
2 DuPont-Pioneer (USA) 8 217 19%
3 Syngenta (Switzerland) 3 155 7%
4 Vilmorin (Groupe Limagrain) 1 993 5%
5 Dow Agricultural Sciences (USA) 1 603 4%
6 WinField (Land O Lakes) (estimation) 1 500 3%
7 Bayer Cropscience (Germany) 1 466 3%
8 KWS Group (Germany) 1 178 3%
9 DLF Trifolium (Danmark) 593 1%
10 Sakata (Japan) 511 1%
Total Top 10 30 956 72%
Sources: Annual Reports, our calculations
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Chemicals: Highly concentrated Rank Company Chemical sales 2014
(MUSD)
Share of world’s
market
1 Syngenta (Switzerland) 11 381 21%
2 Bayer Cropscience (Germany) 10 244 19%
3 BASF (Germany) 7 234 13%
4 DOW Agroscience (USA) 5 686 10%
5 Monsanto (USA) 5 115 9%
6 DuPont (USA) 3 522 6%
7 ADAMA Ag. Solutions (China) 2 876 5%
8 Nufarm (Australia) 2 478 5%
9 Sumitomo (Japan) 1 600 3%
10 Arysta Life Science (Japan) 1 500 3%
Total Top 10 51 636 94% Sources: Annual Reports, our calculations
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Continuous consolidation…
Sources: Annual Reports, our calculations Seeds Chemicals
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Economy • Rebalancing
• Trade, trade, trade
• Concentration
Environment
Technology
Farmers
Consumer
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Oil: Polarized Costs of production • Saudi Arabia: 15$-40$ COP
• North America: 55$-65$ COP
• Tar sands: 70+$ COP
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Tesla
thinks
BIG…
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Source: International water
Management Institute
Global
Water
Scarcity
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Consumer Technology
Farmers
Economy • Rebalancing
• Trade, trade, trade
• Concentration
Environment • Rising awareness
• New energetic
era launched?
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Consumer
Economy • Rebalancing
• Trade, trade, trade
• Concentration
Environment • Rising awareness
• New energetic
era started?
Technology • Rapid implantation
Farmers
Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
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BRFSS, 1986 Adult obesity in United States
Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
BRFSS, 1987
Adult obesity in United States
Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
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BRFSS, 1988 Adult obesity in United States
Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
BRFSS, 1989 Adult obesity in United States
Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
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BRFSS, 1990 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
BRFSS, 1991 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
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BRFSS, 1992 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
BRFSS, 1993 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
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BRFSS, 1994 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
BRFSS, 1995 Indice de masse corporelle ≥ ou approx. 30 lbs de surpoids par personne de 5’4’’
Adult obesity in United States
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BRFSS, 1996 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
BRFSS, 1997 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
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BRFSS, 1998 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
BRFSS, 1999 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
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BRFSS, 2000 Indice de masse corporelle ≥ ou approx. 30 lbs de surpoids par personne de 5’4’’
Adult obesity in United States
BRFSS, 2001 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
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BRFSS, 2002 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
BRFSS, 2003 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
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BRFSS, 2004 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
BRFSS, 2005 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
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BRFSS, 2006 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
BRFSS, 2007 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
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No data 10 % - 14 % ≥ 3 0%< 10 % 15 % - 19 % 20 % - 24 % 25 % - 29 %
Source : Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
BRFSS, 2008 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
BRFSS, 2009 Adult obesity in United States
Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
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BRFSS, 2010 Body mass index≥ or around 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4’’ tall person
Adult obesity in United States
*Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in 2011.
These estimates should not be compared to prevalence estimates before 2011.
BRFSS, 2011
Prevalence* of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S.
Adults by State and Territory
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC
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*Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in 2011.
These estimates should not be compared to prevalence estimates before 2011.
BRFSS, 2012
Prevalence* of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S.
Adults by State and Territory
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC
*Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in 2011.
These estimates should not be compared to prevalence estimates before 2011.
BRFSS, 2013
Prevalence* of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S.
Adults by State and Territory
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Quaterly Sales Change (comparable outlets)
35%
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Changing Consumer?
“Americans under the age of
35 prefer natural and organic
food, which often costs
more, and seek more
transparency on labels.” Bloomberg Businessweek,
quoting Goldman Sachs
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Wal-Mart U.S. Annouces New Animal
Welfare & Antibiotics Positions
« We have listened to our customers, and are
asking our suppliers to engage in improved reporting
standards and transparency measures regarding the
treatment of farm animals. »
May 22nd, 2015
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Economy • Rebalancing
• Trade, trade, trade
• Concentration
Environment • Rising awareness
• New energetic
era started?
Technology • Rapid implantation
Farmers
Consumer • Mistrustful & Selective
• Health & Morality
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
North America & Europe •Adapting to Evolving Ag Policy
•Water
•Next generation’s involvement
Eastern Europe
& Asia •Yield’s
•Pollution management
(water, air, soil)
South America • Improving Logistic
Infrastructure
Africa • Irrigation
• Yields
• Structuring Value
Chains
Océania •Water
•Next generation’s
Involvement
Inspired from PwC
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Farm Consolidation
Sources: Statistics Canada, USDA, RICA
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Sources: Statistics Canada, USDA, Eurostat
Farm Consolidation
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Sources: Statistique Canada, USDA, RICA, IBGE
Farm Consolidation
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
Average
Midpoint
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
PRESERVE REFORM
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
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IFMA 20 Quebec, July 2015
MERCI! Vincent Cloutier, agr.
Chief Economist