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54TH OMNIBUS POLL“The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion”
217 Commercial St.Portland, Maine 04101
(207) 221-8877www.panatlanticresearch.com October, 2018
“Most Accurate Pollster on Maine’s 2010 Gubernatorial Race”
Nate Silver’s Polling Website
#1 Ranked Maine-Based Pollster2014 & 2018
Proprietary Report to the Office of the Public
Advocate
The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Table of Contents
2
I. Background 3
II. Methodology 4
III. Results 7
IV. Sample Demographics 14
Appendix A: Survey Instrument
Appendix B: Statistical Cross-Tabulations
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The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
I. Background
3
• Pan Atlantic Research is a Maine based, independent market research and consulting firm which is currently in its 34th year of successful operation.
• This Omnibus Poll is the 54th poll in a series conducted by Pan Atlantic Research on public policy, business, economic, technology, and lifestyle issues.
• For further information about the poll, please contact Patrick O. Murphy, President, or Jason Edes, Director of Research, at (207) 221-8877 or by email at pmurphy@panatlanticresearch.com and jedes@panatlanticresearch.com, respectively.
• The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll was conducted between October 1st and October 7th, 2018.
• A randomly selected sample of 500 Maine residents (“likely voters”) was interviewed online. Participants were recruited using a panel provided by ResearchNow, a nationally known and highly respected research panel company.
• Data were weighted using US Census Bureau data to match the composition of Maine’s historical voting population based on Congressional District, age, education, income, and gender.PA
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The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
II. Methodology
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• The survey was administered only to those who fulfilled the following criteria:
➢ Are “certain,” “very likely,” or “likely” to vote in the upcoming election on November 6th, 2018
➢ Are registered to vote in Maine
➢ Voted in the presidential election in 2016 (if age-eligible)
➢ Are ages 18 and older
➢ Do not, nor does anyone in their household, work for a market research, advertising or media firm
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The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
II. Methodology
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• It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the rounding of decimals.
• After weights (for CD, education, income, age, and gender) have been applied, results which use all respondents have a margin of sampling error of approximately ± 4.4% at the 95% confidence level.
• The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples, including Congressional District, political party affiliation, age, and gender. The margins of error for specific sub-samples are higher than the ± 4.4% margin of sampling error for the entire sample.
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The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
II. Methodology
6
III. Pan Atlantic 54th Omnibus Poll Results:
Affordable Energy Questions
7
The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Respondents initially read the following paragraph:
The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Affordable Energy Questions
The State of Maine Office of the Public Advocate works to protect the
interests of Maine consumers. The Office of the Public Advocate has
teamed up with an organization called Efficiency Maine to study
opportunities to help low-income Mainers improve energy efficiency in
their homes. The goal is to make Maine’s energy efficiency programs
more effective and to cut high energy costs for those who can least
afford them.
After reading the preceding paragraph, 83.7% of respondents supported efforts by the State of Maine to help low-income customers reduce energy costs by increasing efficiency.
• Do you support or oppose such efforts by the State of Maine to help low-income customers reduce energy costs by increasing efficiency?
9
The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
• 41.2% of respondents “strongly support” these efforts, while 42.5% “somewhat support” them.
• 9.9% of respondents “strongly” (4.0%) or “somewhat oppose” (5.9%) these efforts
41.2% 42.5%
5.9%4.0%
6.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Stronglysupport
Somewhatsupport
Somewhatoppose
Stronglyoppose
Don't know
Support for the Overall Efforts of the Office of the Public Advocate
N=500
Affordable Energy Questions
Although support varied by Congressional District, political affiliation, and education, more than 7 in 10 respondents across all demographics support these efficiency-related efforts by the Office of the Public Advocate.
10
The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
87.7%
79.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CD1 CD2
Total Support
By DistrictN=500
79.7%
90.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
< 4-yeardegree
4-year degreeor more
Total Support
By Level of EducationN=500
92.4%88.3%
72.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Democrat Independent Republican
Total Support
By Political AfilliationN=500
• Do you support or oppose such efforts by the State of Maine to help low-income customers reduce energy costs by increasing efficiency?
Affordable Energy Questions
Respondents then read the following paragraph:
The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Central Maine Power Company plans to build a $950 million high-
voltage electricity transmission line from Quebec through the State of
Maine to carry hydroelectricity to Massachusetts. In evaluating the deal
on behalf of Maine consumers, the Office of the Public Advocate
discovered that as part of the deal, the company agreed to give $50
million dollars to the State of Massachusetts to assist low-income
customers in that state. A similar offer was not made to the State of
Maine. Since the project will have impacts in Maine, the Office of the
Public Advocate contends that CMP should provide a similar $50
million amount to assist low-income Maine energy consumers.
Affordable Energy Questions
After reading the preceding paragraph, 63.0% of respondents supported the position of the Office of the Public Advocate.
• Do you support or oppose the position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this matter? 12
The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
• 37.8% of respondents “strongly support” these efforts, while 25.2% “somewhat support” them.
• 27.0% of respondents “strongly” (19.4%) or “somewhat oppose” (7.6%) these efforts.
37.8%
25.2%
7.6%
19.4%
10.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Stronglysupport
Somewhatsupport
Somewhatoppose
Stronglyoppose
Don't know
Support for the Position of the Office of the Public Advocate
N=500
Affordable Energy Questions
More than half of respondents across all demographics tested support the position of the OPA. “Strong” support is highest in CD1, among older respondents, and among those with higher levels of education.
13
The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
40.8%
34.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
CD1 CD2
Strongly Support
By DistrictN=500
31.7%
47.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
< 4-year degree 4-year degreeor more
Strongly Support
By Level of EducationN=500
29.7%
36.9%
40.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
18-34 35-54 55+
Strongly Support
By AgeN=500
• Do you support or oppose the position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this matter?
Affordable Energy Questions
IV. Sample Demographics
14
The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Sample Demographics
15
The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Political Party
Democrat 31.1%
Republican 31.9%
Independent 34.6%
Other party 0.6%
Don’t know / Prefer not to answer
1.8%
Level of Education
High school or less 31.4%
Some college / 2-year degree 29.8%
Four-year college degree or more
38.9%
Prefer not to answer 0.1%
Sample Demographics
16
The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Age
18-34 17.5%
35-54 29.0%
55+ 53.3%
Prefer not to answer 0.1%
Household Income Level
Less than $25,000 13.0%
$25,000 to under $50,000 16.3%
$50,000 to under $75,000 23.6%
$75,000 to under $100,000 13.1%
$100,000 or more 26.5%
Don’t know / Prefer not to answer
7.5%
Sample Demographics
17
The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Gender
Female 50.0%
Male 50.0%
Congressional District
CD 1 49.8%
CD2 50.2%
Appendix A: Survey Instrument
1 Pan Atlantic Research Fall 2018 Omnibus Poll – FINAL
AFFORDABLE ENERGY-RELATED QUESTIONS The following two questions relate to energy matters.
The following paragraph provides important context for the next question:
The State of Maine Office of the Public Advocate works to protect the interests of Maine consumers. The
Office of the Public Advocate has teamed up with an organization called Efficiency Maine to study
opportunities to help low-income Mainers improve energy efficiency in their homes. The goal is to make
Maine’s energy efficiency programs more effective and to cut high energy costs for those who can least
afford them.
Q7. Do you support or oppose such efforts by the State of Maine to help low-income customers reduce energy costs by increasing efficiency?
1. Strongly support 2. Somewhat support 3. Somewhat oppose 4. Strongly oppose 96. Don’t know
Again, the following paragraph provides important context for the next question:
Central Maine Power Company plans to build a $950 million high-voltage electricity transmission line from
Quebec through the State of Maine to carry hydroelectricity to Massachusetts. In evaluating the deal on
behalf of Maine consumers, the Office of the Public Advocate discovered that as part of the deal, the
company agreed to give $50 million dollars to the State of Massachusetts to assist low-income customers
in that state. A similar offer was not made to the State of Maine. Since the project will have impacts in
Maine, the Office of the Public Advocate contends that CMP should provide a similar $50 million
amount to assist low-income Maine energy consumers.
Q8. Do you support or oppose the position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this matter?
1. Strongly support 2. Somewhat support 3. Somewhat oppose 4. Strongly oppose 96. Don’t know
Appendix B: Cross-TabulationsPan Atlantic Research
October, 2018
Affordable Energy-Related Questions
Table 1: The State of Maine Office of the Public Advocate works to protect the interests of Maine consumers. The Office ofthe Public Advocate has teamed up with an organization called Efficeincy Maine to study opportunities to help low-incomeMainers improve energy efficiency in their homes. The goal is to make Maine’s energy efficeincy programs more effectiveand to cut high energy costs for those who can least afford them. Do you support or oppose such efforts by the State ofMaine to help low-income customers reduce energy costs by increasing efficiency? (Q16)
District Likelihood to Vote PartyTotal CD1 CD2 Certain Very likely / Likely Democrat Republican Independent
Total 500 249 251 379 121 156 159 173100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Strongly support 206 109 97 170 36 73 43 8741.2% 43.9% 38.5% 44.9% 29.7% 47.0% 26.8% 50.2%
Somewhat support 213 109 104 160 53 71 73 6642.5% 43.8% 41.3% 42.2% 43.8% 45.4% 45.7% 38.1%
Somewhat oppose 30 17 12 22 8 3 19 75.9% 6.9% 5.0% 5.7% 6.6% 2.2% 11.8% 3.8%
Strongly oppose 20 2 18 14 6 4 10 54.0% 0.9% 7.1% 3.6% 5.1% 2.7% 6.5% 3.1%
Don’t know 32 11 21 14 18 4 15 86.4% 4.5% 8.2% 3.7% 14.8% 2.8% 9.1% 4.8%
Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018
Table 2: The State of Maine Office of the Public Advocate works to protect the interests of Maine consumers. The Office ofthe Public Advocate has teamed up with an organization called Efficeincy Maine to study opportunities to help low-incomeMainers improve energy efficiency in their homes. The goal is to make Maine’s energy efficeincy programs more effectiveand to cut high energy costs for those who can least afford them. Do you support or oppose such efforts by the State ofMaine to help low-income customers reduce energy costs by increasing efficiency? (Q16)
Age Education Income GenderTotal 18-34 35-54 55+ <4-Year Degree 4-Year Degree+ $<50k $50k-$100k $100k+ Female Male
Total 500 88 145 267 306 194 146 183 132 250 250100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Strongly support 206 26 63 117 113 93 68 75 52 105 10141.2% 30.1% 43.1% 43.9% 36.9% 47.9% 46.7% 40.8% 38.9% 42.1% 40.3%
Somewhat support 213 38 63 111 131 82 53 87 55 108 10542.5% 43.9% 43.2% 41.6% 42.8% 42.2% 36.1% 47.5% 41.4% 43.1% 42.0%
Somewhat oppose 30 2 7 20 16 13 4 7 15 10 205.9% 2.5% 4.9% 7.6% 5.3% 6.8% 2.9% 3.7% 11.7% 3.9% 8.0%
Strongly oppose 20 5 8 7 18 2 10 1 10 6 144.0% 5.6% 5.4% 2.7% 5.8% 1.0% 6.5% 0.4% 7.2% 2.5% 5.5%
Don’t know 32 16 5 11 28 4 11 14 1 21 116.4% 18.0% 3.3% 4.3% 9.2% 2.0% 7.7% 7.5% 0.8% 8.5% 4.3%
Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018
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Table 3: Mean Support for Maine Office of the Public Advocate - 1=Strongly support, 4=Strongly oppose (Q16)
District Likelihood to Vote PartyTotal CD1 CD2 Certain Very likely / Likely Democrat Republican Independent
Mean 1.71 1.63 1.79 1.67 1.85 1.59 1.98 1.58Std Error 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.10 0.07 0.08 0.09Valid N 468 238 230 365 103 151 145 165Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018
Table 4: Mean Support for Maine Office of the Public Advocate - 1=Strongly support, 4=Strongly oppose (Q16)
Age Education Income GenderTotal 18-34 35-54 55+ <4-Year Degree 4-Year Degree+ $<50k $50k-$100k $100k+ Female Male
Mean 1.71 1.80 1.72 1.68 1.78 1.60 1.67 1.61 1.87 1.64 1.78Std Error 0.05 0.14 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.05 0.12 0.05 0.08Valid N 468 72 140 255 278 190 135 170 131 229 239Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018
Table 5: Do you support or oppose the position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this matter? (Q17)
District Likelihood to Vote PartyTotal CD1 CD2 Certain Very likely / Likely Democrat Republican Independent
Total 500 249 251 379 121 156 159 173100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Strongly support 189 102 87 159 30 69 52 6537.8% 40.8% 34.8% 42.0% 24.8% 44.1% 32.9% 37.7%
Somewhat support 126 68 58 87 39 42 45 3825.2% 27.1% 23.3% 22.9% 32.4% 27.0% 28.1% 21.8%
Somewhat oppose 38 16 22 27 11 8 17 137.6% 6.3% 8.9% 7.1% 9.2% 5.1% 10.6% 7.6%
Strongly oppose 97 46 51 74 23 23 30 3819.4% 18.3% 20.5% 19.5% 19.1% 15.0% 18.8% 22.1%
Don’t know 50 18 32 32 18 14 15 1910.0% 7.4% 12.6% 8.5% 14.6% 8.8% 9.5% 10.8%
Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018
Table 6: Do you support or oppose the position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this matter? (Q17)
Age Education Income GenderTotal 18-34 35-54 55+ <4-Year Degree 4-Year Degree+ $<50k $50k-$100k $100k+ Female Male
Total 500 88 145 267 306 194 146 183 132 250 250100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Strongly support 189 26 53 109 97 92 58 73 49 85 10437.8% 29.7% 36.9% 40.8% 31.7% 47.5% 39.6% 39.9% 36.6% 34.1% 41.5%
Somewhat support 126 26 40 60 82 44 36 49 32 66 6025.2% 29.5% 27.6% 22.6% 26.8% 22.7% 24.5% 26.5% 24.4% 26.4% 24.0%
Somewhat oppose 38 11 12 15 24 14 9 10 16 20 187.6% 12.4% 8.2% 5.7% 7.9% 7.2% 6.2% 5.3% 12.4% 8.2% 7.0%
Strongly oppose 97 9 31 57 65 31 27 33 30 49 4819.4% 10.6% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4% 16.2% 18.5% 18.2% 22.8% 19.5% 19.3%
Don’t know 50 16 9 26 38 12 16 19 5 29 2110.0% 17.8% 6.1% 9.6% 12.3% 6.4% 11.2% 10.1% 3.8% 11.7% 8.2%
Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018
2
Table 7: Mean Support for Position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this Matter (Q17)
District Likelihood to Vote PartyTotal CD1 CD2 Certain Very likely / Likely Democrat Republican Independent
Mean 2.10 2.02 2.17 2.05 2.26 1.90 2.17 2.16Std Error 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.08 0.13 0.10 0.11 0.13Valid N 450 231 220 347 103 142 144 154Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018
Table 8: Mean Support for Position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this Matter (Q17)
Age Education Income GenderTotal 18-34 35-54 55+ <4-Year Degree 4-Year Degree+ $<50k $50k-$100k $100k+ Female Male
Mean 2.10 2.05 2.15 2.08 2.22 1.92 2.04 2.02 2.22 2.15 2.04Std Error 0.07 0.18 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.15 0.08 0.10Valid N 450 72 136 241 268 182 130 165 127 221 230Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018
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