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WWW BRYANCAVECONSULTING COMWWW.BRYANCAVECONSULTING.COM
BANGKOKJAKARTAKUALA LUMPURMANILASHANGHAISINGAPORETOKYOTOKYO
Thailand in the TPP?Thailand in the TPP?สาํหรบัการเสวนาเรือ่ง
“ความตกลง TPP: ความหวงัใหม่ของการรวมตวัทาง
เศรษฐกิจ หรือเกมการเมืองชาติมหาอาํนาจ” โดย
ดร. รชัดา เจยีสกุล
ไ ไบรษิทั ไบรอนั เคฟ (ประเทศไทย) จาํกดั
rachda.chiasakul@bryancave.com
Agenda
Thailand’s Preferential Trade AgreementThailand s Preferential Trade Agreement
Trade Figures
Thailand in the TPP?
2
NOW
Thailand PTAs Timeframe
Year 20072005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152004
Thai-Australia
Thai-New Zealand
2003
Thai-Japan
Thai-India
Thai-EU
Th i PThai-Peru
Thai-Chile
AFTA
ASEAN+6ASEAN+6
ASEAN+3
ASEAN-China
ASEAN Australia New ZealandASEAN-Australia-New Zealand
ASEAN-India
ASEAN-Korea
ASEAN-Japan
3
ASEAN-Japan
BIMSTECNote: Date of Signed Effective Date In Progress
Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from Department of Trade Negotiation, MOC
ASEAN Current and Potential Economic Partnerships
ASEAN-Japan CEP
ASEAN-China FTA
ASEAN-South Korea FTA
ASEAN+3ASEAN-India FTA
ASEAN Countries
ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand FTA
ASEAN+6
Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from Department of Trade Negotiation, MOC
Current Economic Partnership
Potential Economic Partnership
Bilateral FTA
Thailand EU FTA
Thailand‐Japan EPA
Thailand‐India FTA
Thailand‐EU FTA
BIMSTEC
Thailand‐Peru CEP
Thailand‐Australia FTA
Thailand‐New Zealand CEP
Thailand
Thailand‐Chile FTA
Current Economic Partnership
Potential Economic Partnership
5Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from Department of Trade Negotiation, MOC
Agenda
Thailand’s Preferential Trade AgreementThailand s Preferential Trade Agreement
Trade Figures
Thailand in the TPP?
6
TPP Member Countries as Thai main Trade Partners:Thailand has FTA with most TPP countries except US and Chile
Accumulated Thailand Total Export to the World (2006-2010) 807,868 Million US$
Accumulated Thailand Total Export to the World (2006-2010) 807,868 Million US$World (2006 2010) 807,868 Million US$ World (2006 2010) 807,868 Million US$
Th il d E t t th 9 TPP M b
Thailand Export to the 10 TPP Member Countries 41.91% of Thailand Total Export to the World
Thailand Export to the 10 TPP Member Countries 41.91% of Thailand Total Export to the World
Th il d E t t th t i th t
Thailand Export to the US 11.89% of Thailand Total Export to the World
Thailand Export to the 9 TPP Member Countries 30.67% of Thailand Total Export to the World
Thailand Export to the countries that Thailand has PTA within 10 TPP Member Countries 29.82% of Thailand Total Export to the World
7
Thailand Total Export to the World
Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from International Trade Centre
Thailand’s Total Export: Major Trade Partners outside TPP are China, Hong Kong, India, Switzerland
Back-up
United Statesf A i
16.00%
Thailand's Total Export: Country Position
of America
Japan12.00%
14.00% Note: Bubble Size = Thailand's Exported value in 2009Source: International Trade Centre
China
Hong Kong,6 00%
8.00%
10.00%
ort (2005
‐2009): %
Singaporeg g,China
Malaysia
Australia
Viet NamNetherlands
United KingdomIndonesia
Chinese Taipei
IndiaRepublic of Korea
Philippines2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
Share to Total Expo
Chinese Taipei
Germany United Arab Emirates
ppSwitzerlandFranceItaly
‐2.00%
0.00%
‐20.00% ‐10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%
S
8
‐4.00%CAGR (2005‐2009): %
Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from International Trade Centre
Agenda
Thailand’s Preferential Trade AgreementThailand s Preferential Trade Agreement
Trade Figures
Thailand in the TPP?The Thai-US FTA link with the decision to join TPP
Quantitative and Qualitative Impact Analysis
Factors for consideration
9
The Thai-US FTA: Paused since 2006!
Chronology of Thai-US FTA
2003
2001 2002 20082004 20062003 20102005 2007 2009 2011 2012
200620062002 2004 2004 2005 2005 20052003Thailand and United States announced the intention to negotiate a US-Thailand-FTA on October 19th, 2003 during the event
f th APEC
2006The Thai-United States FTA negotiation was paused due to Thai political problems since 2006.
2006The 6th round of negotiation took place between January 9th to 13th, 2006 at Chiang Mai, Thailand. The negotiation cover every topics
ith t
2002Thailand and United States signed the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) on October 23rd, 2002
2004The 1st round of negotiation took place from June 28th to July 2nd, 2004 at Honolulu, Hawaii. Most of conversation topics are i f ti
2004The 2nd round of negotiation took place from October 11th to 15th, 2004 at Honolulu, Hawaii. Most of conversation t i
2005The 3rd round of negotiation took place from April 4th to 9th, 2005 at Pattaya, Thailand. Most of negotiation topics are to determine th d
2005The 4th round of negotiation took place from July 11th to 15th, 2005 at Great Falls, Montana. There were discussions by 22 negotiating
t
2005The 5th round of negotiation took place from September 26th to 30th, 2005 at Honolulu, Hawaii. There were discussions in 13 t i hi hof the APEC
Leaders' meeting in Bangkok.
with strong objection from NGOs
information exchanges and United States has proposed some drafts but no agreement was made yet.
topics are information exchanges and United States has proposed some more drafts but no agreement was made yet.
the scopes and exchange information. United States has proposed some more drafts but no agreement was made yet.
groups except customs.
topics, which are rules of origin, agriculture market access, technical barriers, SPS, customs, investments, services, competitions, intellectual
10
intellectual properties, science, labours, environments, and legal issues.
US Started Paying Special Attention to TPP since 2008
2002The Pacific
Three Closer
2005Brunei Darussalam
2005The successful
f
2005New Zealand, Chile and Si i d
2005Brunei Darussalam
2006New Zealand and Singapore
2006The Agreement
d i
2006The Agreement
d i
2011The US and eight other Pacific Rim
ti i t
2006The agreement provisionally
Chronology of TTP and The United States Participation
Economic Partnership (P3 CEP) launched by the President of Chile and the Prime Ministers of New Zealand and Singapore at the APEC
L d S it
asked to join the negotiations as a founding member before the final round of negotiations in April 2005
conclusion of negotiations of the Trans-Pacific SEP at the APEC Trade Ministers meeting in Jeju, Korea on 3 June 2005
Singapore signed the Trans-Pacific SEP and accompanying LabourCooperation MOU and Environment Cooperation Agreement in Wellington on 18
signed the agreement in Wellington in early August 2005.
deposited instruments of ratification on 20 and 28 April 2006 respectively.
entered into force for Brunei on 12 July 2006
entered into force for Chile on 8 November 2006
nations aim to forge a free-trade pact before President Barack Obama hosts an Apec summit in November, Honolulu, Hawaii USA.
entered into force (between New Zealand and Singapore only) on 1 May and officially entered into force on 28 May..
Leaders Summit in 2002
3 June 2005 Wellington on 18 July 2005
2001 2002 20082004 20062003 20102005 2007 2009
2008
2011 2012
20112010-20112008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010President
Bush announces negotiations
for US to form TPP and invites
Australia, Peru and
On the last day of the
2011 APEC summit,
November 14 in Hawaii, the
Japanese Prime
Minister,
• 1st round 15 – 18 Mar 10 in Melbourne, Australia;
• 2nd round 14 – 18 Jun 10 in San Francisco, US
• 3rd round 4 – 9 Oct 10 in Brunei Darussalam, Brunei
• 4th round 6 – 10 Dec 10 in Auckland, New Zealand
• 5th round 15 – 18 Mar 10 in Santiago,
Three rounds of US/P4 financial
services and investment
negotiations were held in
2008 First round in
Peru, Australia and
Vietnam announce
their participation in
TPPA negotiations, in November
January 2009• USTR calls
for public comments on proposed TPPA
February 2009• Letter is sent by
54 Members of US Congress to Obama opposing the TPPA
• Obama administration
March 2009• USTR hearings
conducted on TPPA
• Letter is sent by 45 members of the US Congress to Obama
• US Congressional hearings on the TPPA held in March 2010
• Malaysia participated
11
Vietnam to join TPP
negotiations September
2008
Yoshihiko Noda,
announced negotiations
to join in TPP.
gChile
• 6th round 24 Mar - 1 April 11, Singapore.
• 7th round 20 – 24 Jun 11, Viet Nam• 8th round 6 – 11 Sep 11 Chicago, USA:• 9th round 24 – 28 Oct 11, Lima, Peru
March,Second round in June, and
Third round in September
2008 announces deferral of TPPA negotiations for an unspecified period
supporting the TPPA
• US Public Hearings on TPPA held
p pas a full negotiating member at the third round of negotiations
Thailand has FTA with most TPP countries except US and ChileNOW
Year 20072005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152004
Thai-Australia
Thai-New Zealand
2003
Thai-Japan
Thai-India
Thai-EU
Thai-Peru
Thai-Chile
AFTA
ASEAN+6
ASEAN+3
ASEAN-China
ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand
ASEAN-India
ASEAN-Korea
12
ASEAN-Japan
BIMSTECNote: Date of Signed Effective Date In Progress
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA)
13
Agenda
Thailand’s Preferential Trade AgreementThailand s Preferential Trade Agreement
Trade Figures
Thailand in the TPP?The Thai-US FTA link with the decision to join TPP
Quantitative and Qualitative Impact Analysis
Factors for consideration
14
Net Economics Impact of Thai Joining TPP ~ Impact of T-US FTA
Accumulated Thailand Total Export to the World (2006-2010) 807,868 Million US$
Accumulated Thailand Total Export to the World (2006-2010) 807,868 Million US$World (2006 2010) 807,868 Million US$ World (2006 2010) 807,868 Million US$
Th il d E t t th 9 TPP M b
Thailand Export to the 10 TPP Member Countries 41.91% of Thailand Total Export to the World
Thailand Export to the 10 TPP Member Countries 41.91% of Thailand Total Export to the World
Th il d E t t th t i th t
Thailand Export to the US 11.89% of Thailand Total Export to the World
Thailand Export to the 9 TPP Member Countries 30.67% of Thailand Total Export to the World
Thailand Export to the countries that Thailand has PTA within 10 TPP Member Countries 29.82% of Thailand Total Export to the World
15
Thailand Total Export to the World
Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from International Trade Centre
Quantitative Impact of T-US FTA: TUSFTA & TPP Positively Affect Thai GDP
Unit: Percent
Percentage Change in Gross Domestic Product (Unit:
Free Trade in Goods T-US 0% Tariff + 0% NTMs
S i A TUSFTA AECScenario B: TUSFTA+ AEC+ Scenario C: AEC + Thai
Percent)Scenario A: TUSFTA: + AEC
Existence TPP Joins TPP
Thailand USA Thailand USA Thailand USA
Scenario 1: 1. All Service Sectors 5.80 0.02 2.46 0.02 2.80 0.01
Extreme Scenario
-100%2. ASEAN Service
Sectors5.34 0.01 2.46 0.02 2.80 0.01
1. All Service Sectors 4.07 0.01 1.59 0.01 1.93 0.00 Free
Trade in
Services
Scenario 2: Likely
Scenario -40% 2. ASEAN Service
Sectors3.89 0.01 1.59 0.01 1.93 0.00
Scenario 3: 1 All Service Sectors 3 50 0 01 1 30 0 00 1 64 -0 00 Scenario 3:
Ambitious
Scenario -20%
1. All Service Sectors 3.50 0.01 1.30 0.00 1.64 0.00
2. ASEAN Service
Sectors3.41 0.01 1.30 0.00 1.64 -0.00
S i 4 F T d i G d ONLY 2 93 0 01 2 43 0 02 2 77 0 01
16
Scenario 4: Free Trade in Goods ONLY 2.93 0.01 2.43 0.02 2.77 0.01
Source: Bryan Cave (Thailand) Adapted from GTAP Simulation Results
Long-Run Impact of Different Paths toward FTAP: East-West Center’s Working Paper Model Specification
To explore outcomes from two different pathways toward FTAAP (Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific)
TPP track Asian track
FTAAP FTAAP
TPP13 EAFTA
AEC, CJK
TPP9
,
AEC
P4
Note:
FTAAP: Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific
TPP13: TPP 9 + Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico
TPP9: P4 + Australia, Malaysia, Peru, US, Vietnam
EAFTA: East Asia Free Trade Area (Assumed to be agreed by 2015 and
implemented by 2020 (AEC+CJK))
AEC: ASEAN Economic Community
CJK: China-Japan-Korea Accord (Assumed to be signed in 2012 and
17Source: Peter A. Patri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-
West Center Working Papers Economics Series, No. 119, October 24, 2011
, y , , ,
P4: Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore
p ( g
implemented by 2015)
Long-Run Impact of Different Paths toward FTAP: East-West Center’s Working Paper Model Specification
Tariff and NTB reductions similar to those of prior agreements
Asian Track
2012 2015 2020 2025
CJKChina, Japan, Korea
EAFTAConsolidates ASEAN+3 FTAAP
TPP9 TPP13Korea, Japan, Canada, Mexico join
Trans-Pacific Track
18Source: Peter A. Patri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-
West Center Working Papers Economics Series, No. 119, October 24, 2011
Welfare on alternative tracks
% Baseline GDP
TPP Asian track Two tracks FTAAP
% Baseline GDP
TPP Asian track Two tracks FTAAP
Welfare on alternative tracks
TPP track economies 0.15 0.03 0.18 0.51
United States 0.07 0.02 0.08 0.31
Australia 0.17 0.02 0.18 0.55
Canada 0.12 0.02 0.13 0.37
Two track economies
Korea 0.73 1.63 2.09 2.34
Malaysia 2.24 1.53 3.59 5.25
Singapore 0.35 -0.01 0.21 0.42
Chile 0.78 0.02 0.82 1.72
Mexico 0.58 0.14 0.70 2.07
New Zealand 0.83 0.02 0.86 1.22
Peru 2.12 0.02 2.16 2.53
Vietnam 14.27 6.49 18.44 26.14
Other -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 0.28
Russia -0.03 -0.05 -0.08 5.46
Chinese Taipei -0.20 -0.95 -1.05 3.77
Asian track economies -0.10 0.61 0.53 1.98
China -0.09 0.50 0.42 1.89
Hong Kong -0.02 3.72 3.69 6.10
Indonesia -0.10 0.55 0.48 1.18
Europe 0.02 0.03 0.03 -0.01
India -0.02 -0.12 -0.13 -0.21
Other ASEAN -0.30 0.64 0.40 2.04
ROW -0.04 -0.01 -0.04 -0.24
Philippines -0.12 1.25 1.15 2.90
Thailand -0.28 1.60 1.37 3.38
Two track economies 1.07 1.16 2.01 2.45
Brunei 0.48 1.31 1.50 1.64
World -0.10 0.21 0.30 0.85
Memorandum
TPP9 0.30 0.11 0.38 0.73
ASEAN+3 0.25 0.78 0.98 2.12
19
Japan 0.58 0.80 1.26 1.38 APEC 0.19 0.37 0.53 1.57
Source: Peter A. Patri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-
West Center Working Papers Economics Series, No. 119, October 24, 2011
Export on alternative tracks
% Baseline exports
TPP Asian track Two tracks FTAAP
% Baseline exports
TPP Asian track Two tracks FTAAP
Export on alternative tracks
TPP track economies 2.3 0.0 2.3 9.2
United States 2.0 0.1 2.1 10.3
Australia 2.8 0.0 2.8 9.9
Canada 1.1 -0.1 1.0 2.8
Two track economies
Korea 7.7 14.6 18.6 19.6
Malaysia 5.0 4.0 8.3 8.8
Singapore 0.6 -1.3 -1.1 -4.2
Chile 3.0 -0.3 2.7 5.3
Mexico 3.1 0.1 3.1 11.1
New Zealand 5.7 -0.1 5.7 8.5
Peru 11.0 -0.2 10.9 14.2
Vietnam 25.8 13.1 31.6 43.0
Other -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.3
Russia -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 20.5
Chinese Taipei -0.8 -3.0 -3.4 17.7
Asian track economies -0.5 6.1 5.7 16.5
China -0.5 6.1 5.6 17.7
Hong Kong -0.4 9.5 9.1 14.8
Indonesia -0.7 6.0 5.4 12.0
Europe -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -2.9
India -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -3.0
Other ASEAN -2.4 5.2 3.1 17.8
ROW -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -3.4
Philippines -0.6 5.0 4.4 10.8
Thailand -0.7 5.4 4.8 16.2
Two track economies 7.2 9.4 14.3 4.7
Brunei 1.8 4.2 4.8 14.6
World 0.8 2.1 2.7 6.6
Memorandum
TPP9 3.9 1.1 4.5 11.2
ASEAN+3 1.9 7.1 8.3 16.4
20
Japan 4.9 9.4 12.9 19.6 APEC 1.7 4.0 5.3 14.6
Source: Peter A. Patri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-
West Center Working Papers Economics Series, No. 119, October 24, 2011
HighlightsHighlights from GTAP Resultfrom GTAP Result
Highest benefit to Thailand when TUS FTA occurs with AEC but no other Highest benefit to Thailand when TUS-FTA occurs with AEC but no other
FTA between US and other countries in AEC (Unrealistic First Mover
Advantage)g )
Joining TPP will positively affect Thai GDP
Without Joining TPP Thailand should continue pushing for ASEAN +
negotiation. However, Thailand will enjoy less benefit compare with the
other two-tracks economies (e.g. Malaysia, Korea, Japan, Vietnam)
21
Other Considerations T-US FTA Impact Analysis
Environmental Impacts
Biodiversity
Intellectual Property Right (CL/ Data Exclusivity/ Protection of
New Varieties of Plants/ Microorganism)
State-Investor Dispute Settlement
Genetically Modified Organisms: GMOs
Sectoral Impacts
S iServices
22
Outlines of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement
Comprehensive market access: to eliminate tariffs and other barriers to goods and services trade and investment, so as
to create new opportunities for our workers and businesses and immediate benefits for our consumers.
Fully regional agreement: to facilitate the development of production and supply chains among TPP members,
supporting our goal of creating jobs, raising living standards, improving welfare and promoting sustainable growth in our
countries.
Cross-cutting trade issues: to build on work being done in APEC and other forums by incorporating in TPP four new,
cross-cutting issues These are:cross-cutting issues. These are:
1) Regulatory coherence. Commitments will promote trade between the countries by making trade among them more seamless and efficient.
2) Competitiveness and Business Facilitation. Commitments will enhance the domestic and regional competitiveness of each TPP country’s economy
and promote economic integration and jobs in the region, including through the development of regional production and supply chains.
3) S ll d M di Si d E t i C it t ill dd ll d di i d t i h i d b t th diffi lt i 3) Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises. Commitments will address concerns small- and medium-sized enterprises have raised about the difficulty in
understanding and using trade agreements, encouraging small- and medium-sized enterprises to trade internationally.
4) Development. Comprehensive and robust market liberalization, improvements in trade and investment enhancing disciplines, and other commitments,
including a mechanism to help all TPP countries to effectively implement the Agreement and fully realize its benefits, will serve to strengthen
institutions important for economic development and governance and thereby contribute significantly to advancing TPP countries’ respective p p g y g y g p
economic development priorities.
New trade challenges: to promote trade and investment in innovative products and services, including related to the
digital economy and green technologies, and to ensure a competitive business environment across the TPP region.
Living agreement: to enable the updating of the agreement as appropriate to address trade issues that emerge in the
future as well as new issues that arise with the expansion of the agreement to include new countries.
23Source: USTR, November 12, 2011, the Leaders of the nine Trans-Pacific Partnership countries announcement of the achievement of the
broad outlines of an ambitious, 21st-century Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement
The TPP as a 21st Century Agreement:Issues with Extensive Precedents (I)
Issues Prior Coverage (% of Accords)
Possible Content Expected Controversies
Goods 100 Reduce customs duties; specify customs valuation methodology; establish oversight committees; provide for exceptions and special treatment of sensitive products.
There will be difficult negotiations on exclusion lists and time path of liberalization; advanced countries will resist reducing barriers on labor‐intensive goods.
Services 91 Require national and MFN treatment; bar performance requirements; require regulation to be transparent and not
d l b d t f d t
The diversity of services and limited prior multilateral liberalization will make negotiations difficult. Advanced
i k b d d t i t di i li iunduly burdensome; ensure transfers and payments; address licenses and certifications obtained abroad.
economies seek broad and strict disciplines; emerging economies may want exclusions and slow implementation.
Technical Barriers
69 Require implementation of WTO agreements; encourage mutual acceptance of technical regulations and conformity assessment; establish mechanisms for cooperation.
Advanced economies seek "WTO+" features. Developing economies want to avoid ambitious TBT measures and potential disguised protectionism.
Competition 66 Require measures against anticompetitive business Economies that do not have explicit competition policies and/orCompetition 66 Require measures against anticompetitive business conduct; ensure competitive neutrality of policy with respect to government enterprises; require national treatment and enforcement authority.
Economies that do not have explicit competition policies and/or have significant state‐owned sector could face significant reform requirements.
Intellectual Property
77 Require accession to international treaties; require effective enforcement of criminal and civil penalties in case of
Highly controversial; affects especially pharmaceuticals and information technology. Exporters seek provisions beyond
Rights knowing violations; require destruction of pirated or counterfeit goods.
TRIPS, such as accession to WIPO treaties. Resistance from importers, competitive producers, national health systems, NGOs. Developing countries may want to regulate bio‐prospecting
Source: Petri, Plummer, and Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-West Center Working
24
Papers Economics Series, No. 119, October 24, 2011
The TPP as a 21st Century Agreement:Issues with Extensive Precedents (II)
Issues Prior Coverage (% of Accords)
Possible Content Expected Controversies
Investment 74 Require national and MFN treatment under international law; bar performance requirements; limit expropriation; require compensation; ensure free and timely transfers;
High priority for all TPP economies but are differences on sectoralcoverage and ownership limits. Some countries seek investor‐state arbitration, as provided in bilateral investment treaties; this q p ; y ;
establish procedures for dispute resolution by international tribunals.
, p ;is opposed by NGOs and some governments.
Government Procurement
66 Require national treatment and nondiscrimination consistent with the WTO agreement; specify rules of origin establish standards for transparency; provide for supplier
Only two TPP economies have acceded to WTO accords; three others are observers. Members will push for strong provisions and observers will likely follow, but non‐members will seek high
challenges. de minimis rules.Sanitary and phytosanitary standards
69 Ensure appropriate protection of human, animal, and plant health; establish committees for ongoing cooperation.
The details of acceptable standards are complicated. Less‐advanced economies will seek de minimis rules, assurances against hidden protectionism, and technical assistance.
Dispute Settlement
91 Create Procedures for convening dispute settlement panels; authorizes monetary penalties and suspension of
Relatively uncontroversial.Settlement panels; authorizes monetary penalties and suspension of
benefits when other methods of resolving a dispute fail. May provide for international arbitration.
Rules of origin 94 Establish rules for determining when a product originates in the FTA; set de minimis standards; list exceptions; provide for verification, documentation and consultation.
Negotiations involve product‐by‐product detail. Accumulation is an important test of the TPP's ability to consolidate the "noodle bowl".p ,
Trade remedies
66 Provide for temporary, bilateral safeguards in the event (or threat) of injury to domestic industry; limit the scale and duration of safeguard actions.
While trade remedies are controversial, the template is less so.
Customs procedures
86 Define procedures for customs administration affecting transparency, advance rulings, review and appeal.
High priority for most economies, but emerging economies will be cautious about implementation costs and commitments;
25Source: Petri, Plummer, and Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-West Center Working
Papers Economics Series, No. 119, October 24, 2011
technical assistance may be helpfulTemporary entry
54 Provide for short‐term entry of business persons on an expedited basis.
Relatively uncontroversial; issues arise on qualifications of service providers.
The TPP as a 21st Century Agreement:Issues with Few Precedents (I)
Issues Prior Coverage (% of Accords)
Possible Content Expected Controversies
Institution 43 Provide for mechanisms such as joint committees to Relatively uncontroversialInstitution 43 Provide for mechanisms such as joint committees to supervise implementation.
Relatively uncontroversial.
Financial Services
26 Require national and MFN treatment under international law; bar performance requirements; limit expropriation; require compensation; ensure free and timely transfers; establish procedures for dispute resolution byt
high priority for all TPP economies but are differences on sectoral coverage and ownership limits. Some countries seek investor‐state arbitration, as provided in bilateral investment treaties; this is opposed by NGOs and some governments.establish procedures for dispute resolution byt
international tribunals.by NGOs and some governments.
E‐commerce ‐ Enfure free flow of information across borders; prohibit tariffs on e‐commerce; facilitate cross‐border supply of services; protect confidentiality of information.
Issues involving regulation of information flow may be of concern to some economies.
Telecom‐ ‐ Ensure interconnection and nondiscriminatory access to Principles uncontroversial but some economies will want to maintainTelecommunications
Ensure interconnection and nondiscriminatory access to telecommunications networks; eleminate investment limits; limit require technology neutrality; promote mutual recognition in testing and certification.
Principles uncontroversial, but some economies will want to maintain limitations on investment and competition, and on the development of standards.
Agriculture 9 Regulate tariff‐quotas; bar export subsidies; disciplines on export taxes and restricitions; limit safeguards to
Controversial for a few products such as sugar and diary. Many TPP economies are net exporters but some want exceptions Theon export taxes and restricitions; limit safeguards to
applied MFN duties; provide for consultations on improving market access for specific products.
economies are net exporters but some want exceptions. The compromise will have implications for future accession by countries such as Canada and Japan.
Source: Petri, Plummer, and Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-West Center Working
26
Papers Economics Series, No. 119, October 24, 2011
The TPP as a 21st Century Agreement:Issues with Few Precedents (II)
Issues Prior Coverage (% of Accords)
Possible Content Expected Controversies
Labor 9 Incorporate ILO obligations; require domestic laws to be Highly controversial; developed countries seek labor practices that areLabor 9 Incorporate ILO obligations; require domestic laws to be conosistent with international standards; may require enforcement; authorize joint oversight committees.
Highly controversial; developed countries seek labor practices that are difficult to adopt and may impede competitiveness in low‐income countries. Compromises will be needed.
Environment 9 Require laws for environmental protection and effective remedies for violations; ensure public participation; encourage technological cooporation; authorize joint
Developed economies seek higher environmental standards than some developing economies; the latter want safeguards against "environmental protectionism." g g p j
committees.p
Safety standards
3 Require reglation of products and services to ensure safety.
Advance economies are pushing for "best practices;" emerging economies seek de minimis rules.
Regulator coherence
‐ Require regulations to be developed in an open transparent process; require national treatment.
Objectives are relatively uncontroversial but implementation has little precedent.
Small and medium size enterprises
3 Promote joint strategies to support SMEs; facilitate capacity building and dissemination of information.
Relatively uncontroversial; opportunity to support capacity‐building in low‐income economies.
Business facilitation
0 Provide for cooperation in trade and investment promotion, customs clearance, inspections and quarantine create joint working groups
Relatively uncontroversial; opportunity to support capacity‐building in low‐income economies.
quarantine; create joint working groups.
Culture 0 Promote cultural cooperation; regulate limits on imports of movies and other cultural products.
Controversial provisions may affect import restrictions on movies, music and other cultural products.
Science and technology
0 Provide for joint work and technology transfer in critical industries such information technology and mining.
Relatively uncontroversial
27
Source: Petri, Plummer, and Zhai, (2011) “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment”. East-West Center Working
Papers Economics Series, No. 119, October 24, 2011
Agenda
Thailand’s Preferential Trade AgreementThailand s Preferential Trade Agreement
Trade Figures
Thailand in the TPP?The Thai-US FTA link with the decision to join TPP
Quantitative and Qualitative Impact Analysis
Factors for consideration
28
Thailand in the TPP?: Factors for consideration
Plurilateral Trade Agreement Opportunity between Thailand and the US with Better
Bargaining Power for Thailand
Chance to be one of the Early Member Countries in the New Asia Pacific FTA
A Chance to have Socio-Political Adjustment Regards Liberalization of Services & j g
IPR Articles
Consequences on the Development of AEC & Potential ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6
DialoguesDialogues
Thailand’s Role in the World International Trade Scene (Thailand in the FTAs’
Radar)
Chance to be Involve in the “high-quality” FTA & Opportunity for Domestic
Reforms and Corruption Mitigation
Consider Thailand’s International Trade Dependence and Direction Toward
29
Knowledge Base and Creative Economy
Thailand with a very high International Trade Dependence!
375 15TRADE DEPENDENCE INDEX (2010)
152 71
297.56
375.15
200250300350400
ence Inde
x
118.44
26.79 50.5922.33
152.71
31.96 41.520.56
99.46
050
100150200
Trade Den
deT
Country
30
Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, September 2011, and www.trademap.org
Note: Trade Dependence Index = (Exports + Imports)/GDP
Example: Sectoral Impact! (Sugar)
35.00%
Position Mapping for Product HS 1701 Imported by the U.S.
Note: Bubble Size = US' imported value in 2009FTA
Mexico
25.00%
30.00%
= FTA= FTA (waiting for Congress to enact legislation in order to go into effect)
= TPP: Ongoing Negotiation= FTA and TPP= Others
Rank of Thailand: 20
15 00%
20.00%
port (200
5‐20
09)
Source: International Trade Centre
Brazil
Guatemala
Dominican Republic
Philippines
10.00%
15.00%
Share to Total Imp
pp
AustraliaEl SalvadorColombia
Costa RicaNicaragua
Paraguay
Canada
Argentina
Peru
Panama
HondurasSouth AfricaSwazilandZimbabweThailand
0.00%
5.00%
‐30.00% ‐20.00% ‐10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%
31
‐5.00%CAGR (2005‐2009): %
Source: International Trade Centre, Bryan Cave (Thailand) Analysis
Top 20 US Import Source Countries
25 00%Position Mapping for All Products Imported by the U.S.
China
20.00%
25.00%Note: Bubble Size = U.S. Imported Value in 2010= FTA= FTA (waiting for Congress to enact legislation in order to go into effect)
= TPP: Ongoing Negotiation= FTA and TPP= Others
R k f Th il d 18
Canada
Mexico10.00%
15.00%
mpo
rt (2006‐2010): %
Rank of Thailand: 18Source: International Trade Centre
Japan
GermanyUnited Kingdom
Republic of Korea
FranceChinese T i i
SaudiArabia
Italy
Malaysia
Ireland
Nigeria
Brazil IndiaTh il d
RussianFederation
5.00%
Share to Total Im
Venezuela
Taipeiy IrelandBrazil IndiaThailand Israel
‐5.00%
0.00%
‐10.00% ‐8.00% ‐6.00% ‐4.00% ‐2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00%
CAGR (2006‐2010): %
32Source: International Trade Centre, Bryan Cave (Thailand) Analysis
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