1Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001

CaminìaCaminìa

2Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001

Caminìa, the basic structure

mathematical programming model

spatial

one homogeneous commodity: wheat

exogenous exchange rates

perfect competition prevails both on domestic and international markets

19 countries/regions

partial equilibrium

3Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001

“base” model time reference: 1994

domestic markets represented through linear demand, supply and stock release functions

producer prices are farm gate prices

consumer prices are net prices to consumer

domestic transportation and handling costs

international transportation and handling costs

Caminìa, the basic structure

4Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001

EU compensatory payments: fully decoupled

US deficiency payments: fully decoupled

EU set aside % as its “rotational equivalent”

minimum guaranteed prices in the EU and the US

EU “export restitutions” endogenously determined

Caminìa, the policy modeling (base model)

5Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001

EU “variable levies” endogenously determined

Japan’s JFA represented as an import quota

NAFTA

bilateral agreements

Caminìa, the policy modeling (base model)

US EEP export subsidies assumed to be paid in cash and to be unconstrained

6Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001

Caminìa, solver and calibration

Written in GAMS, solved recursively to overcome the difficulties due to the high non-linearity of the constraints

Average percent difference, in absolute values, between observed and “predicted” values is equal to 2.6% for quantities produced and 3.1% for quantities consumed

7Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001

expected changes in supply (yields)

FAIR Act

implementation of 1992 Cap reform

Caminìa, the simulations

expected changes in demand (population, per capita income)

Base 2001, 2002 and 2005

8Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001

Caminìa, the simulations

domestic support commitments: irrelevant

1994 GATT Agreement on agriculture:

tariff levels: country schedules, unless applied tariffs were lower than binding ones

EU tariff protection: variable levy

Japan import quota: adjusted TRQs export competition commitments

individually explicitly modeled US export subsidies: maximizing exports

9Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001

Caminìa, the simulations

Agenda 2000

intervention price 1994 119.192001 110.25

(-7.5%)2002 & 2005 101.31

(- 15%)

10Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001

Caminìa: where does it come from? Where is it now? Where is it going?

Where does Caminia come from?

- Anania and McCalla, AJAE, 1991- Anania, Bohman and Carter, AJAE, 1992- Solagral, 1998

Where is it now?

Anania, 2001

Where is it going?

more runs of current version (EU enlargement, $/Euro exchange rate sensitivity

multi-product: cereals, meats and dairy