53
139 2015 2014 2015 " ,

התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    4

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

1 3 9

2 0 1 5 2 0 1 4

2015 " ,

Page 2: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

. .

©

Page 3: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

3

5 :'

5

:

6 �

:

,2016- 2015

17

28

35 :'

35

43 �

48

Page 4: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

4

. - . , - . ; , ; . ,

.

Page 5: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

5

2015 2014 ,139

:'

,4.3% (2015 2014 )

.

- ," "

.1" "

. 2014

,

.

,

.

2015

.

,

,

,2014

.2015

,

.

,

.(64 25)

, 2%-

.

0.4%- :

- .

, ;2015

1

, .

2015 .

, ,

,0.2%- .

.

,

,

,2015

0.15- 2015

.0.10 �

(2015 2014 )

2.2 , 3.5

.

,2014 � 2014

. 2015

,

" , 10- " .

2014 �

" �

.2014

17-

2015 .2015-

( 2014- 1/12)

. ,

- ( )

, "

,

,

� .

� ,2016- 2015-

.

Page 6: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

6

: �

-

,

.

� �

, ,

-

.

- .

"

,OECD-

0.6 0.4-

.

, -

.

.

, 58%- 48%-

3.5% 2.0%-

.

. ,

,

,( )

, .

,

)

(

, .(2013 , )

, ,

.

,

.

.

Mankiw, Romer and .

,Hall and Jones (1999) ,Weil (1992)

( )

,

Solow -

.1

1

.

Johansen et al.-

,(2012)

;( )

:

� Johansen et al. (2012)

1

, ) Klenow and . (

.Bils and Klenow (2000)- Rodriguez-Clare (1997)

.

:

;

,

;

.

.

Page 7: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

7

2015 2014 ,139

2010- .2

16- :

.3 10-

.1970-

4

40%-

, .70-

,

,

.

" Gordon (2014) :

" 2

," .2013 ,136 '

, - 3

Barro and Lee . 9- .(2013)

" 4

' ,".2013 ,136

0.2-

.

,

.

,( )

. �

,

.

.

.(' , , )

.

,

-

.

,

,

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1 , OECD ,1970 -2010

1970 2010

:Johansson et al. (2012) , .

Page 8: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

8

.

,

.

, ,

.

60- Islam et al. (2014)

,2010 1970

, ( )

.

- , .

: 5Firt Principal Component

- ,

, ,

500

, .

:

.

)

,(

.

Hanushek and Woessmann (2012)

.

12-

-

) 2003 1964 15 9

.(

,(100 500 ) "

. � First Principal Component 5

.

.

50 .(100- )

( )

1960

100) :2000-

( "

, .

,

,

.6

,

.

Bouis, Duval and Murtin (2011)

( ) 40-

.2005 1970

Hanushek and Woessmann

(2012)

, .

" 100 )

( -

,90%-

.8,7Hanushek and Woessmann

Hanushek and- ,

,Woessmann

Hanushek and Woessmann 6

, . , . " . ( - )

. : 7

10 ,Hanushek and Woessmann (2012) 0.2 " . Hanushek and ) Bouis, Duval .(1+0.002)40-1=8.3%- (Woessmann ,and Murtin (2011)

. 9.0% 8

, . � 56% �

Page 9: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

9

2015 2014 ,139

) ,

) (

10%- -

.( 5%-

,

.

, )

('

- )

.(

.

.

, 2

.2011 , "

.OECD- ,7.3% ,

2014 2011

. 0.5%- ,18% �

,

.

3 .

OECD-

.( , ) ,

:

, , .1

. OECD-

,

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2 " , OECD ,2011

:Education at a Glance (2014)

"

Page 10: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

10

' '

"R² = 0.8872

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

3 , , OECD ,2011

) PPP(

-OECD

.

" ) PPP(

:Education at a Glance (2014)

'

'

"

R² = 0.8454

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

.

" ) PPP(

) PPP(

-OECD

'

'

"R² = 0.7295

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

28,000

. -

" ) PPP(

) PPP(

-OECD

Page 11: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

11

2015 2014 ,139

.

. ,2011- ,

.2

.

: -

,

)

, ,

.(Balassa-Samuelson �

.3

. ,

,

.

,2011- ,

"

."

.OECD-

.

.(OECD- 22 )

(39%)

- , .(44%)

,

,

.

.

4 .

.

.OECD-

.

.

.

0

10

20

30

40

4 , ,

OECD ,2012

:Education at a Glance (2014)

Page 12: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

12

5 . -

Hanushek and .

,Woessmann (2012)

,( ) OECD-

4.7

.5.0- , ,

Bouis, - (2012) Hanushek and Woessmann

Duval and Murtin (2011)

0.6-

27%-

, )

,

.(

"

:9(5 ,2012 )

.

"

.15 " 9

,

.10

-

. ,

( )

. ,

Hanushek .

(2006)

,

. ,

.

,Hanushek (2006)-

Dolton and Marcenaro-Gutierrez (2011) .

10

. , , �

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

5 - ) 1964 2003 (

" )2012(

"

:Hanushek and Woessmann (2012), PISA (2012)

Page 13: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

13

2015 2014 ,139

,

,

- .

Holmlund et al. (2010) ,

Fredriksson (2013) .

.42 24

Jackson et al. (2015) ,

10% "

( 12 )

.7.25%-

.

- .

,

. -

,Times Higher Education

400

,(30%) 13

,(30%) ,(30%)

, 6 .12 ,11(7.5%) - (2.5%)

,OECD-

( ) 200

.( )

,

.39 20

:

� - 11

. "

QS , 12

Times .(Quacquarelli Symonds) Higher Education

.

:

200 i

.

1 �

0 i j

.

Times- j �

Higher Education World University Rankings

.2014/15

Times Higher Education World : .j

2014/15- 2013/14 University Rankings

.

.(2012) i 39 20 �

.OECD- :

,

200

,( )

)

,(

" .(39 20)

. 200

(39 20 )

" ,( )

Islam et al.- .

. (2014)

(2014/15) ,

,( ) 200

.

200

,

, -

.200-

,

ij

jjji

Pop

StudScoreINDiM

200

1

**200

iM 200

jINDi

jScore

jStud

iPop

Page 14: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

14

� 15-

)

,

.13(1 ;16- 10

, ) 2011/12

.( 200

,2010/11 ,

. 200

,

,

( 200 ) 400 100

.39 20

.

,

,( ) �

-

13

, 200 8 ,15- � . 200 � ,

.

.

.

,( )

,

.

,

-

,

.

2012/3 ,

. 60%-

, (2007)

16- , ,

)

,

.(

:

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

6 Times

Higher Education1,2015-2014

) * ( 20 39

200

1 -200 .

: Times Higher Education Ranking 2014-2015 ,OECD , , Wikipedia .

Page 15: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

15

2015 2014 ,139

,

.14

"

15

.16

,

, . -

,

.

,58%- 48%-

3.5% 2.0%-

.

39% 1996-

,2012- 48%-

.

,

(1) :

(2) ;

,(2014) 1-' 14

. 15

" " 48% ,2012- � " 4 , 3

. ,(2013) 1-' 16

" :."

(3) ;1730%

16

.(2007 , )

/

,

.

.

,

10

, "

) 9% 6%-

.(

:

" ,(2013) '

."2059 2013

.30 7 ' ,87

" ,(2007) ' ' , ' ,'

:

. ."

," " ,(2009) ' '

.30 7 ' ,87

Barro, R. and J.W. Lee (2013), "A New Data Set of

Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010".

J 104, pp. 184-

198.

Bils, M. and P. Klenow (2000), "Does Schooling

Cause Growth?". The American Economic Review

90(5), pp. 1160-1183.

Bouis, R., R. Duval and F. Murtin (2011), The Policy

and Institutional Drivers of Economic Growth

,(2009) 17

.10%- � " :

," ,136 '

.2013

Page 16: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

16

Across OECD and non-OECD Economies. OECD

Economics Department Working Papers No. 283.

Dolton, P. and O. Marcenaro-Gutierrez (2011), "If

You Pay Peanuts do You Get Monkeys? A Cross

Country Comparison of Teacher Pay and Pupil

Performance", 26, Issue 65, pp.

5-55.

Fredriksson, P., B. Ockert and H. Oosterbeek (2013),

"Long Term Effects of Class Size", T

128(1), pp. 249-285.

Gordon, R. (2014), The Demise of U.S. Economic

Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections.

Department of Economics, Northwestern University,

Manuscript.

Hall, R. and C. Jones (1999), "Why Do Some

Countries Produce So Much More Output Per

Worker Than Others ",

114(1), pp. 83-116.

Hanushek, E. (2006), "School Resources", in

Hanushek, E. and F. Welch (Eds.)

2006 (2), Chapter 14.

Hanushek, E. A. and L. Woessmann (2012), "Do

Better Schools Lead to More Growth? Cognitive

Skills, Economic Outcomes, and Causation",

17, pp. 267-321.

Holmlund, H., S. McNally and M. Viarengo (2010),

"Does Money Matter for Schools?",

29, pp. 1154-1164.

Islam, R., J. Ang and J. Madsen (2014), "Quality-

Adjusted Human Capital and Productivity Growth".

52 (2), pp. 757-777.

Jackson, K., R. Johnson and C. Persico (2015),

The Effects of school Spending on Educational

and Economic Outcomes: Evidence from School

Finance Reforms. NBER Working Paper No. 20847.

Johansson, A., Y. Guillemette, F. Murtin, D. Turner,

G. Nicoletti, C. de la Maisonneuve, P. Bagnoli, G.

Bousquet and F. Spinelli (2012), Long-Term Growth

Scenarios. OECD Economics Department Working

Paper No. 1000.

Klenow, P. and A. Rodriguez-Clare (1997), "The

Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has it

Gone Too Far?" in Bernanke, B. and J. Rotemberg

(Eds.). NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997,

Volume 12. MIT Press.

Mankiw, G., D. Romer and D. Weil (1992), "A

Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth

", 107(2), pp.

407-437.

Page 17: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

17

2015 2014 ,139

: ,2016- 2015

� 2015

,

.

� 2.8 2.5 � 2015-

.

.

:

. -

� � 2016-

,

3.3- �

3.5- 2020 2017 ,

. ,

� �

� ,

- 2016- " 10-

.2020- 14

2020

.

,

,

.

� , ,

, 2.5

, ,

.

,

,

,

.

� ,

. 70-

� ,

,

,

.

,

.

, -

. - ,

.1

2014- 2013

.

2015- ,

2015- ,

2014 2013 .

,

, .

,

, ,

.

.

,

� (2- 1 )

,

.(3 )

Page 18: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

18

, ,

.

,

, ,

,

. ,

-

.

. ,2015

2015

1/12 ,

.12014

2015

� 2016 �

, 1

. ,

.

39.5

45.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

.OECD :

1 , OECD ,2014

30.8

43.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

: OECD.1 �2014.

2 , OECD ,2012 1

Page 19: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

19

2015 2014 ,139

.

,

, 2015-

, .2

,

.

.

" - " ,

. � " 4.3

2.6 12-

2.8- 2.5 ,

) .(4 )

� (

2

.2015 ,138 '

http://www.boi.org.il/he/NewsAndPublications/RegularPublications/DocLib3/RecentEconomicDevelopments/develop138h.pdf

,

� 2016

,

.

31.034.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

3

, OECD ,2013 1

.OECD : 1 �2014.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

4 -12 ,

: ," .

Page 20: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

20

.2

,

, .

. " 8-

,

,

� - �

.

-

,OECD

,3

- .

,

.

,OECD

)

.(3 1

, ,

, -

. -

,

,(2014) 3

http://www.boi.org.il/he/ .' ,NewsAndPublications/RegularPublications/DocLib3/20% 20% 20% /BankIsraelAnnualReport

chap-8-2013.pdf/2013

,4

� �

.

, -

.

-

: , -

,

.

,

.

,

.5

,

� ,

,(2015) 4

(3-' ) 40-

.2012 2010- 2001 1999

http://www.boi.org.il/he/NewsAndPublications/RegularPublications/DocLib3/20% 20% 20% /BankIsraelAnnualReportchap-8-2013.pdf/2013

' 5

. ' '

,136

http://www.boi.org.il/he/NewsAndPublications/RegularPublications/DocLib3/RecentEconomicDevelopments/develop136h.pdf

. ,(2013) 1-'

http://www.boi.org.il/he/NewsAndPublications/RegularPublications/DocLib3/20% 20% 20% /BankIsraelAnnualReportchap-5.pdf/2012

Page 21: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

21

2015 2014 ,139

;

;

.

,

,6 ,

, .7

, -

.

,

. -

, " 2.5-

; " 2015- "

( ) .8

)

, " (

( ) .

( )

, "

( ) .

.

"

,

, "

: " : 6

."2012

http://www.boi.org.il/he/Pages/Search.aspx?k=%D7%9E%D7%A2%D7%A0%D7%A7%20%D7%A2%D7%91%D7%95%D7%93%D7%94&s=Hebrew 7

. .2013- 8

-

.OECD

,

.9

� �

.10 " 8-

,

1.3 .

500 "

.2018- ,2017- 500 ,2016-

"

,

0.5 ,

.2017- 0.5 2016- "

6-

.2018- 7.5- 2016- "

.

,

.

,

,

.

,

.

" 9

154 ' , ,(2015) .158

http://www.boi.org.il/he/NewsAndPublications/RegularPublications/DocLib3/20% 20% 20% /BankIsraelAnnualReportchap-6.pdf/2014

10

, ,

.

Page 22: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

22

,

.

,

.

,

,

,

.

,

.

2016 .3

2016

.2013

1.9)

(2016- 2015- ,2014 2012

) 50

(

, .(2014 67.1)

, 2.66 2015

.11 " 8.4

, 2016-

, 2015

2015

" 8.6- 2016 .2014

, .(1 )

. 11

" 3.75 , ,2014 6- ) , ( " 2 ) 2014 2013 ,2015 10

.(7.10.2014-

,2016-

.12

,

,

,

.

,

, .

, - ,

,

, .

,

.

.

.13

,2001 ,

, 2- ,

.

,

,

.

,

.

- ;

,

.14

� 12

. 2- � 2015 2016 (2014) 13

.' , , 14

.

Page 23: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

23

2015 2014 ,139

,

,2015-

,2016-

.

,2014-

.2016-

,

.

,

,

)

15(

15

.

.16 " 10 2016-

" 6-

. 2

2016

6.5- . " 16-

"

( )

.17

:

16

. , ) , .2002 ,(2003) 3-' ,

. " 6.5 17

, .

. ,

2016 :1

( " )

1( , ) 2014 319.3

21 3.8

3(1-2) 2015- 315.5

(%)

4 2.66

( " )

52(3*4) 2015 8.4

622015- 0.0

7(3+5+6) 323.9

8(4*7) 2016 8.6

932016- 4.5

10(7+8+9) 2016- 337.5

. 2013 1

2015- ,2015 - 2

. .2014

.2015- 2016- .2015 3

. :

Page 24: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

24

.

,

,

.

.

)

,

.(

"

" � "

, ,18

.19

,

,

.20 -

,

( )

,

,

.

,

18

. , 19

" " ,

. ,(2015) 2-' 20

http://www.boi.org.il/he/NewsAndPublications/RegularPublications/DocLib3/20% 20% 20% /BankIsraelAnnualReportchap-6.pdf/2014

. ,

,

. ,

, - 2008

,

- , .2013

,

.21

.

� -

, "

.

-

.

2020 2015 .4

, -

,

-

.

,

.

2016-

� 22 3

.

21

: " ,(2012) ' , "

. ,8 2016 22

.22.6.2015-

Page 25: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

25

2015 2014 ,139

, 5

" � ) 2014

2- .("

6 . 2019- 1.5- 2016-

,( )

62-

, � 2020

, .

. ,

7 5

,

. 2020

2017- 3.5-

.

.2020- 71-

,

� ,

� .23

,

10- , ,

) 2020 2017 24 "

,(25

,2020 0.5 0.3-

.

: 23

" ,(2015) ' ' , , : "

. , ,"

http://www.boi.org.il/he/Research/DocLib/dp1502.pdf.2016- , , 24

25

" ,(2013) ' 31 ' ,87 ,"

,68

http://www.boi.org.il/he/Research/DocLib/dp1412h.pdf

" ,(2014) ' ' . , ,"

http://www.boi.org.il/he/Research/DocLib/dp1412h.pdf

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

5

,2014 2020

: .

6

,2014 2020

: .

55

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 26: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

26

7 5

2.5- .

. ,

, 66-

,

.

2020 2017

,2016- . " 4.5-

.26

1.2-

.(7 )

,

.27 ,

:

,

.

)

.(2

,

26

, ,

. 2015 27

, " 1.3- ,2014- .( )

.2020 2015-

37

38

39

40

41

42

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

7

,2014 2020

: .

, .28

. ,

2-

) 2020 2016

,(5

.

� ,

. �

,

.

28

, - . . ,

:

" ,(2015) ' ' , , : "

. , ,"

Page 27: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

27

2015 2014 ,139

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

3 4 2

8 ,

2014 2020

: .

,

.

,6- 5

. 2.5-

, ,

,

)

.(

,

.

.

OECD-

. - ,

,

, 4

, .(8 )

, 2

) 4

- (8

. 75

Page 28: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

28

2015201420151,2

2014IIIIIIIVIIVI

2.82.81.60.86.52.13.42.3

"2.72.61.80.07.52.64.12.2

4.11.86.05.47.97.55.95.2

-0.44.21.5-9.9-5.720.92.23.1

-2.8-12.0-5.3-7.09.0-6.5-3.0-4.5

2.1-2.5-4.4-3.512.8-2.90.30.03 1.29.2-21.12.210.4-3.8-1.3-4.0

3 0.8-2.28.6-17.66.12.4-1.7-1.3

4 2.6-2.42.210.64.514.04.25.25

1.0-7.1-3.718.4-9.517.00.52.35 6.530.38.67.2-9.221.67.98.5

4.23.76.65.66.90.84.44.2

3.94.36.16.25.9-0.53.94.4

3.33.05.24.03.48.85.04.6

. 1

. :

. - 5

. - 3

. , 4

2014

2015 2014 , :1-'

. 2

( , , , )

2

Page 29: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

29

2015 2014 ,139

1*

0.30.30.40.30.30.41.82.63

1.4-0.2-1.62.6-0.51.53.26.13

( ) -1.10.51.4-0.21.53.44.82.13

-2.00.00.90.5-2.11.51.91.23

- -1.2-0.22.2-0.1-0.80.13.33.23

- 0.50.7-6.05.90.10.50.43.43

6.7-1.00.4-3.61.20.2-7.4-19.43

-15.513.7-5.18.65.2-9.31.7-7.93

-6.642.9-13.5-24.161.4-20.014.517.932,1

( ) " 9954,1436,364123

0.230.220.240.240.230.263

0.250.250.260.290.280.263

0.230.210.240.220.210.2734

0.180.190.210.200.200.223

0.190.210.190.210.220.233

. , :

. . ( " ) 2

. 1

: . * ,(1) ; - ,(2) ; - ,(3)

. - ,(12) ; -

. 4

. 3

20142015

2015 2014 , :2-' ( , )

Page 30: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

30

I/20152015

( )IIIIIIIVI1*

3,801.51.30.60.30.5-0.1-0.11.53 3,596.21.20.40.21.10.20.21.93

1,301.31.20.31.42.10.80.84.53 2,296.41.20.6-0.30.5-0.3-0.30.53

( ) 296.8-0.1-0.8-2.00.30.60.6-2.03

( ) 35.4-0.3-1.7-1.74.6-3.3-3.3-1.33

) (108,368.10.5-1.4-0.51.5-0.6-0.6-0.23

94,899.30.4-1.5-0.21.7-0.7-0.70.23

( )32,731.40.4-1.51.13.3-0.7-0.72.33

205.43.84.32.1-8.6-4.3-4.3-5.93 206.0-0.7-1.11.9-0.8-2.4-1.0-3.91

89.5-0.6-6.08.10.8-0.84.31.63( " ) 76.50.42.70.89.55.212.819.63

( )2 0.70.30.60.21.11.12.43

0.80.30.80.41.31.52.43 0.40.40.90.51.21.52.43

2 9,276.50.30.50.60.01.00.81.83 8,954.60.80.30.60.40.71.01.93

9,437.20.10.60.9-0.21.10.81.93 1.00.30.7-1.912

64.264.364.264.263.83 60.460.460.260.660.43 5.96.16.25.65.43

3 23.119.616.721.221.63

: . * ,(2) ; - ,(3)

. - ,(12) ; - ,(1) ; -

, - . : ; , ; ,

, ; " , ; , .

.( ) 3

. 1

. . 2

2015 2014 , :3-'

( , )

( , )

2014

Page 31: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

31

2015 2014 ,139

201512014IIIIIIIVI*

-1.80.5-0.8-1.5-5.31.43 -2.7-0.1-1.6-2.3-6.70.23

2

-1.30.6-0.9-1.0-1.30.10.4-0.53 -6.90.4-5.0-4.1-6.90.02.8-0.53

5.60.24.13.25.60.1-2.4-0.13 -29.9-0.3-4.4-6.2-19.00.7-7.71.03

13.9-1.2-0.24.93.78.55.03 12.0-1.41.12.53.811.64.73

:11.5-11.4-20.08.06.011.30.43 " -0.30.110.6-0.71.210.53.43

1.90.62.90.06.33.12.63 3.05.95.83.84.61

:3.3-1.77.38.24.213 -2.82.6-0.2-1.6-0.51

3.73.96.36.16.26.05.43

2015 2014 , :4-'

20142015

2014

. , :

: . * ; - ,(1) ; - ,(2) ; - ,(3)

. - ,(12)

. 2

. 1

. 3

Page 32: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

32

20152,12014IIIIIIIVI

2*

4

4.41.4-0.3-0.50.2-6.9-3.5-4.23

:9.03.51.02.23.0-11.5-1.91.13

4.91.1-4.8-1.33.9-15.7-4.9-11.73

2.30.70.8-1.5-2.4-1.5-3.9-3.93

1.4-0.5-4.10.40.8-1.60.2-6.03

:1.5-0.8-3.52.0-0.4-2.5-0.7-5.83

: -1.5-6.8-3.4-2.76.28.59.2-4.23

98,52325,60324,58624,24924,08523,7143 93,14823,63523,18123,75522,57822,0203

/ 5,3751,9691,4054941,5071,6943 / 13,2534,6824,3961,5252,6492,8853

2( " ) -8,573-961-1,845-498-5,269-3,46132 :6,7383,2141,4992,056-304,2003

29,5552,8641,8811,9162,8949683

2 "11,9074,2875,5121,7173924,53132 , 86,10185,56286,81986,18386,10184,969-1.4-0.732,5( ) -35.6-29.6-29.0-31.4-34.3-37.33

. 1

. :

. , , 4

. 2

. 3

. 5

2015 2014 , , :5-' ( )

: . * ; - ,(2) ; - ,(3)

. - ,(12) ; - ,(1)

( ) 3

2014

Page 33: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

33

2015 2014 ,139

* 0.3-0.20.0-0.9-0.70.3-1.2-1.03

0.20.10.0-0.4-0.40.2-0.3-1.031 0.40.30.60.40.80.43.03.43

2 -0.72.4-1.9-0.84.46.510.114.833 1.31.01.2-1.8-1.50.73.73.53

1.61.11.3-2.2-2.70.33.01.734 0.30.40.41.00.30.12.43.83

2 0.20.20.20.20.20.10.21.032 5- " -0.4-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.4-0.23

2,5 -0.2-4.4-3.5-0.7-0.1-1.1-8.3-23.83

-0.3-0.1-0.2-0.5-1.0-1.0-0.6-0.53

. 4

. :

38 28 ( ) 3

. ,

. 1

. 6

. 2

. . Credit Default Swap (CDS) 5

6 12-

, , , , :6-'

: . * ; - ,(2) ; - ,(3)

. - ,(12) ; - ,(1)

2015 2014 ,

( )

20142015

Page 34: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

34

20152016

20132014 "3.43.43.53.8

1 1.41.82.42.4

5.04.64.34.7

3.53.43.74.7 2.13.33.34.3

3.13.33.24.1 5.53.73.55.5

4.63.45.35.7

( ) - 2-0.9-7.5-39.612.9

-1.2-4.0-14.1-1.0

( ) 1.41.40.41.43( ) 0.40.30.71.9

0.20.20.00.0( ) 7.97.36.96.6

.2015 ,World Economic Outlook (IMF) :

( , )

:7-'

. World Economic Outlook- 1

.

. , " 96.25 2014- (U.K. Brent, Dubai, West Texas) 2

. 65.65 2016 , 58.14 2015

. LIBOR- - ; LIBOR- - 3

Page 35: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

35

2015 2014 ,139

:'

.2008

.2014 ,

,

.

,

,

.

,

.

.1

.2008-

2008 :

,( ) 1.7%

. 2014 11.5%-

6%

,2007 , .1(1 )

, ( ) 60%-

.80%- 2012

� 2007-

.22007-

. 1

35%- , 2

� 2007 .2005- 2000 30%- � 80%- 20% ) . ( ,

.

,2010 ; ) �

.(2011

)

, (

, .3

.4

, )

, ,(

,

.

, -

/ :

. /

.

. 6%

,

.

.

- /

.

3

.Card and Ransom (2011) Scholtz et al. - Martin and Whitehouse, 2008

.(2006).2-' , ,(2011) 4

Page 36: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

36

,

.

65%-

( " 9,000- 2,000 )

) 5

.5(

.2

, ,

.

, .

,2008

.6

5

2001- .( 55) 60- 22 ;2006 75%- ,2006- 72%- ,2007- .2012 . ,56%- 60% ,

. ( ) 6

,( )

.

,

, .

.

:

) .

.(1 ) (

, ,

2007- 1

. 0

5-

.7(2012- 2007 )

,

,

. ,

10%

,

.

5 7

. ,

.

: :1 ( , )

"

1.1.20080.830.830.832.5

1.1.20091.661.661.685

1.1.20102.52.52.57.5

1.1.20113.333.333.3410

1.1.20124.164.164.1812.5

1.1.201355515

1.1.201465.5617.5

Page 37: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

37

2015 2014 ,139

.2012- 2000

, ,

.

,

2001 ,

) 2006-

.(2001

2012 2007

,2006 2001

:

0 1

.8

, ,2012 2001

.

,

, , 8

,

.

.

2006- 2001

,2012- 2007

,

, :

)

,(

.9

,

.

, ,

.

.

,

,

.

, ,

(2012 2007)

� ,(2006 2001)

" 4,000- )

.(2007

,

.

4,000- ,

. , "

.

,

.

,

. 9

, . ,

.( 4 )

* -100.

: .

1 64-25 ,

2001 2006 -2007 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

- 2001

- 2007

0 1 2 3 4 5

Page 38: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

38

,

, .

. ,

,

.

, .

,

5%- .

, 2008

.

.

,2001

,2007

,2 .10

,

, , ,

.

.

.3

2007-

,11(3 )

� 10

36% � .2012- 2007 40% 2006- 2001

. ,23%- 21%- 11

,( ) 2007 , .

2001 , :2 12007-

2001-

2007-

2001-

2007-

)(

0.520.510.40.43

( ) 36.3436.9933.2834.24

1989 0.290.280.240.21

%) (0.720.760.620.65

( " ) 64.2468.1945.3246.09

11.1311.399.9310.34

/ /0.260.290.40.42

3 0 0.290.30.30.31

18 4 0.890.860.780.9

30 1 0.140.140.380.36

100 30 0.230.220.310.3

1,000 100 0.40.410.230.25

1,000- 0.230.230.080.09

(55 ) 60 22 , " 9,000- 2,000 1

) " 2,000 5 , .2007 .(

Page 39: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

39

2015 2014 ,139

.2006- 2001 � �

2012- 2007

7.5%- 2007-

,2007-

2001 4.5%-

.2006-

,121%

.(1 ) 4.16% � 2012

: 4 .

-

.

.-5.25 t 12

12012 2007- 2006 2001 : :3 ( ) :

2007

2012-t

2001

2006-t

-7.612-13.73**-2.958-4.27**

-20.79-26.24**-19.569-18.28**

3 0 -2.081-4.51**-2.939-4.87**

8 4 -3.14-7.97**-2.971-5.6**

1988 -7.466-13.22**-5.662-7.75**

( " ) -5.341-71.8**-4.976-51.87**

( " ) 0.03162.44**0.0346.04**

" 48- -8.524-9.53**-9.554-8.34**

6.23810.32**3.0513.801**

1.6586.79**1.6835.05**

10.02157.4**9.22342.31**

0.0076.68**0.0064.9**

133.06124.29**149.85420.59** 88,61267,756

R squared0.180.13

.2 1

,2007- ,2007- , , , : , * , * , * , * ,2007- , * , * ,2007- , 50 30 , 30 15 , 15 ,25 19 ,18 9

** .2001 2007 2006 2001 .2012- 2007 .1%

Page 40: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

40

2012- 2007

,

, , .3

2012 2007

,2007 2002 2005 2000

.13

)

,( -

.

,

.

2006 2001 , 13

. 2012 2007 2000 2000 : 2007- 2007 , ,

.

,

. ,

/

,

.14

2001 �

,2009 2007- 2003

� 14

. � , .

. 35 30

1 - - :4

2012 2007- 2006 2001-

-7.61-2.96-4.65

2005 2000 -7.61-2.51-5.10

2007 2002 -7.61-3.12-4.49

-7.41-2.51-4.90

-5.38-1.11-4.27

-9.9-5.43-4.47

" 9,000- 4,000 -4.31-0.79-3.52

" 7,000- 2,000 -7.48-3.58-3.90

" 6,000- 3,500 -5.55-2.14-3.41

" 6,000- 3,000 -6.28-2.68-3.60

-7.52-3.07-4.45

23 -7.17-2.42-4.75

57 : 52 -7.49-2.44-5.05

26 21 -7.62-2.99-4.63

22009 2007- 2003 2001 -4.75-3.03-1.72

. ;3 1

.(1%- ) 3.09 t . 2

Page 41: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

41

2015 2014 ,139

� (1 )

.15

� �

.2007-

,

,2012- 2007 ,2003 "

.

,

)

) .(

(

.

.

,

.

, . ,

,

. �

,

.

, .

15

2003- ,2006- 2001 .2009 2007 2009 ,2009 2003 ,

.

.

" " ,

:

,

.

, 8%- 4%

, .

,

.16

.

.4

� �

;4.5% 4%-

.2012 4.16% �

.

,

.

.

- 16

� . � , , . ,

.

Page 42: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

42

,

.1780%- 50%

,2014 ,2007-

, 11%-

.2007

,

,

.

,

.

.

,

,

,

. 18

:

. ,(2011)

" ,(2010) '

,84 ,"

.123-87 '

" ,(2011) '

.119-90 ' ,(1/2) 58 ,"

;(1998) Poterba and Krueger ,Fuchs 17

.(2009) Melguizo and Paramo-Gonzales (2014) . ,

. 18

,(2011) .2-' ,

,(2014) ' '

, ,

.2014.08

Card D. and M. Ransom (2011), "Pension Plan

Charactersitics and Framing Effects in Employee

Savings Behavior",

93(1), pp. 228�243.

Fuchs V.R., A.B. Krueger and J.M. Poterba (1998),

"Economists' Views about Parameters, Values

and Policies: Survey Results in Labor and Public

Economics", 36(3),

pp. 1387�1423.

Martin, J., Whitehouse, E., 2008. Reforming

Retirement-Income Systems: Lessons from the

Recent Experiences of OECD Countries. Working

Papers, 66. OECD Social, Employment and

Migration.

Gonzales-Paramo, M. and Melguizo (2009), "Who

Bears Social-Security Taxes? A Meta-Analysis

Approach", Instituto de Estudios Fiscales, 20/09.

Scholz, J., Ananth Seshadri, K., Khitatrakun,

S., 2006. Are Americans Saving �Optimally' for

Retirement? . 114, 602-

643.

Page 43: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

43

2015 2014 ,139

� (1994 )

.

.

,

.

.

.1

, , 2013- 2010

28

2013- .1

,2

.

.

.

,

, .

.

, ,

.

,

,

.

� 2012- 2011 , 11,000 2010 1

) 1,000- � 2013 , 8,000 .( , ,

. - , 2

.

) .3

;(4

;

.

,2009

, :

.

( ) , 10

.5 1,500

, 7.9

.

.6

5.8%-

4 ,

, .72008 2000

2009 :

.

" : 13 9 ' 3

" , ,(2011 ) ." , , : " , 4

,(2014) . " " .144 142 '

- 2015 " " 5

. 18,000 Assessment of the Effectiveness of Scrapping" 6

Schemes for Vehicles � Economic, Environmental andSafety Impacts" (March 2010), HIS.

Monitoring CO2 emissions from new passenger" 7

cars in the EU: summary of data for 2012", European Environment Agency, Page 7.

Page 44: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

44

***

.8

.

,

. 3

,

,

,

. ,

.2

2010

-

20 .

,

1994

,

.9 70%-

� 2010

.10

,

.

( )

,(2008 ) " " (1 : 8

" (2 ; " " " ,(2011 ) " : " ,

." , , EMEP/EEA emission inventory guidebook, 2013, page 9

33. " 10

24- 22 15 ' ,(2011 ) " .28

.

-

.

,

,

.

" 3,300-

,

.12 ,11 " 200-

� " 100 �

.13 " 3,000

,14 28-

.1994 60,000-

.3

, :

) ,

.15(

. �

,

.

" 11

.24 23 ' ,(2011 ) " ) " 7,000- 12

40- ( . 1993- , " 300- 750-

. . " 13

, ,1994- 1993. " 3,000

.(2 ) , " 87 14

' ,' 15

" ,(2014) ' , , ," -

.

Page 45: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

45

2015 2014 ,139

.

.

,

.

"

,162013 2009

,1994

.

.

1994 �

� 1994

.(1 )

.

,

.17

,( )

� 16

, , : .(" " ") . ,(9%) .(4.5%) 21,765 , 31,839 , � (68%) " . : .( ) :7 , ," " , "

. , � 17

� ( , , ) . " 60%- American Association of State Highway and : Transportation Officials" (2010), Highway Safety Manual.

.

.181 �

� ( / )

.2

,

,

(' ) .

. , 18

. � 29 25 � (10%)

.(15%)

0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1 1

,

2009 2013

1 1994.: .

, :1 2013 ,

1994 : 1994 :

24-1523.5%21.9%

69-2570.9%74.5%

70+5.2%3.6%

. :

Page 46: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

46

)

.19(

,

. ( )

,

.

.

,20

.

.

, :

.(2 )

,

.

(2013 2011)

.

:24.14 ,2014 , " 19

, , , (' ) .

20

. , . , . ,

.

21(3 )

.(2 )

.22

" 1,015

, .

( " ) 21

. ,2012.

22

.

, :3 (2012 ) "

6.10

1.53

0.12

.2 ,72 ' ,2012 " :

.

, :2 2013 ,

1994 : 1994 :

-38.6%33.6%

61.4%66.4%

. :

4.4

0.9

6.0

2.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2

: ,

2011 2013

1994 1994

: .

Page 47: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

47

2015 2014 ,139

, .4 -

, -

.1994

30%-

.

( ) 4

. 23

1993

,70%-

.

:

.

1995-

" 1,000- �

.

.4

� 1994

,2013 2010

.13 23

.

,

.

,

.

,

� ( )

" "

.

2012 , " 3,000- )

.(2013

,

.

.24" "

.25

,

. ,

24

. 40 " 200 , 25

. "

1 :4

( )

- 2

-

39,5172,92712,444

412,5663,86516,430

515,5544,78420,339

618,4855,68524,170

. 2% 1

,(2011 ) " " : 2

." "

" " :

, : " , ,(2011 )

. " ,

Page 48: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

48

.

,

" , .

,

.(2%)

,

"

.

, "

,

.1

, "

. ,

"

. "

-

.

.

, " "

.(Break-Even Inflation Rate) BEIR

,

.

(FOMC- ) 1

2014 , , , Fed- . Federal Reserve, Minutes of the Open) .(Market Committee, December 16-17, 2014 (ECB- ) , " . ECB-

.(ECB, Economic Bulletin, March 2015) 2%-

,

.26

.

,

,

) 26

,( . , )

.(

.2014

,(3% 1%) 2014

.-0.2% �

:

, ,

.

.

,

.

,

.

,

.

,

,

.

Page 49: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

49

2015 2014 ,139

,(Zero-Coupon Inflation Swaps) ISwaps

( )

(Swap Rate- )

.2

,

,(five-year, five-year forward)

.

,

.

1

BEIR- , " ,

)

Barclays (2014), "Global Inflation- 2

Linked Products: A User's Guide"

- BEIR- .(

, ISwaps

)

.(70% � " ,50%

,2014

, " . "

, .

� .2%-

, �

BEIR- .(2%) ECB-

� 2%- ,2014

.

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

% "

BEIR

Iswap

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

%

BEIR

Iswap

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

%

BEIR

Iswap

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

%

BEIR

: � . " � . -BEIR -BEIR ,

" . " -.Fed

1 :BEIR ISwaps , , , 2007 2015

Page 50: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

50

,

.

,

.

.3

:

"

.

"

ISwaps- .BEIR-

. , "

.

" ,

" , ,

.

.

: "

" .

� "

" .

.BEIR- , "

2000-

, (1%- )

,

, 3

Kerkhof (2005), "Inflation . Derivatives Explained: Markets, Products and Pricing",Lehman Brothers.

.4 ,2008-

"

"

- ISwaps-

.5BEIR

:ISwaps-

,

.

,

.ISwaps-

BEIR- 1

ISwaps- . ISwaps-

,BEIR-

.6 " ,1

.

Fleckentstein et 4

al. (2014), "The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle", . Grishchenko and Huang (2012), "Inflation Risk Premium: Evidence from the TIPS Market",

.Federal Reserve Working Paper Haubrich et al. (2012), "Inflation 5

Expectations, Real Rates, and Risk Premia: Evidence.from Inflation Swaps",

6

. " .ISwaps-

ISwaps- BEIR- :1

BEIRISwaps

-

ISwaps- -

. (-) .

Page 51: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

51

2015 2014 ,139

"

BEIR- "

,ISwaps-

.

,

, " BEIR- ISwaps-

,7

"

.(2 )

,2008 � 2

,Lehman Brothers

.2011

, .

, " ,

2014 .

,

.

BEIR- ISwaps- 7 , ,

.6 .

. "

2015

.

,

"

.

: " (bid-ask spread)

.

" , "

.(3 ) "

)

, " (bid-ask spread-

. BEIR-

,

,

. BEIR-

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2 : ISwap -BEIR spot) (" , , , 2005 2015

"

: . -BEIR -BEIR , " .-BEIR " -Fed.

Page 52: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

-

52

,

.

,

.

.

,

,

.

, , ,

.

, "

, .(1 )

"

,

. 8

,ECB- ,

,2% 2015

) 1.6%- � ISwaps-

9(

,

,

.

, ,

.

2015 Fed- 8

Fed- ,2014 Board of) Governors of the Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy

.(Report, February 2015, pp. 12-13 9

) ECB- .(1

.

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

3 : )bid-ask spread ( : " , ,

2008 2015

"

"

: .

Page 53: התפתחויות הכלכליות בחודשים האחרונים · 5 2015 2014 ,139 :' ,4.3% (2015 2014 ). - ," ".1" " 2014, . , . 2015 . , , ,2014

53

2015 2014 ,139

- .

,

, .

.

"

,

.

,

, .

.