Chargeurs - AlphaValuecorporate.alphavalue.fr/.../Chargeurs.pdfChargeurs Les objectifs du groupe portent désormais sur la croissance organique POUR CONTRE Chiffres Clés 12/18A 12/19A

La recherche sous contrat est payée par la société faisant l’objet de la recherche. Les cours objectifs et opinion sont uniquement déterminés par les méthodes et procédures d’AlphaValue.

15 avr. 2021 Sponsored research

Sociétés holdings France

Opinion Achat Potentiel de hausse (%) 31,4

Cours (€) 23,2

Objectif de cours (€) 30,5

Bloomberg Code CRI FP

Capitalisation boursière (M€) 564

Enterprise Value (M€) 687

Momentum FORT

Sustainability 4/10

Credit Risk BB

Research Analysts

Jorge Velandia

+33 (0) 1 70 61 10 50

[email protected]

Conflits d’intérêts

Contrat de liquidité Non

Activité de placement (actions/obligations)

Non

Intérêt personnel de l'analyste Non

Conseil auprès de l'émetteur Non

Recherche financée par l'émetteur

Oui

Rencontres investisseurs payées par l'émetteur

Non

Activité de négociation sur titre chez AlphaValue

Non

Client de la recherche AlphaValue

Oui

Cette analyse a été commandée et financée par l’entreprise concernée et constitue donc un avantage non-monétaire mineur tel que défini par MIFID2

Chargeurs

Now pursuing organic growth ambitions

POUR

CONTRE

Chiffres Clés 12/18A 12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

PER ajusté (x) 20,1 26,6 7,66 29,8 22,4

Rendement net (%) 2,90 2,28 4,29 2,80 3,02

VE/EBITDA(R) (x) 10,5 9,10 5,29 10,8 9,23

BPA ajusté (€) 1,15 0,66 2,07 0,78 1,04

Croissance des BPA (%) 5,56 -42,6 213 -62,4 33,3

Dividende net (€) 0,67 0,40 0,68 0,65 0,70

Chiffre d'affaires (M€) 573 626 822 649 708

Marge opérationnelle courant (%) 8,55 6,61 9,23 6,38 7,38

Résultat net pdg (M€) 26,6 15,1 47,2 18,0 24,1

ROE (après impôts) (%) 11,4 6,42 17,4 5,48 6,56

Taux d'endettement (%) 17,6 51,9 50,9 47,7 42,2

Se concentrant sur la croissance rentable et pertinente "à la Danaher", Chargeurs est un holding organisé comme un petit conglomérat industriel

L'activité principale, Protective Films, présente un potentiel remarquable en termes de FCF tant les besoins en qualité au sein des processus industriels sont importants.

Géré de façon serrée, Chargeurs n'hésite pas à investir dans les compétences. Cela ne nuit guère à sa distribution de dividendes.

En raison de sa petite taille en terme nominal, le groupe peut passer en dessous des radars de la plupart des investisseurs

Préparer la croissance à long terme par le biais des opex et d'acquisitions bien pensées demande du temps

Depuis 2019, le PDG a acquis une position largement majoritaire dans Columbus, holding de contrôle avec 30% de Chargeurs. C'est une bonne nouvelle pour les minoritaires. Cependant l'actionnariat précis de Columbus reste inconnu.

mailto:[email protected]

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

PER ajusté x 26,6 7,66 29,8 22,4

VE/EBITDA x 9,10 5,29 10,8 9,23

P/ANC x 1,71 1,18 1,55 1,40

Rendement du dividende % 2,28 4,29 2,80 3,02

Rendement du cash flow libre % -0,38 16,7 5,54 5,92

Rendement des fonds propres (ROE) % 6,42 17,4 5,48 6,56

Rendement des capitaux investis % 7,79 12,3 5,95 7,20

Dette nette/EBITDA x 2,91 2,01 3,15 2,72

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Chiffre d'affaires M€ 626 822 649 708

EBITDA M€ 60,0 97,3 63,3 74,6

Résultat operationnel courant M€ 38,9 75,9 39,0 51,2

Résultat d'exploitation (EBIT) M€ 31,9 68,9 31,0 43,2

Résultat financier net M€ -11,5 -12,8 -16,8 -20,8

Profits avant impôts et exceptionnels M€ 20,4 56,1 14,2 22,4

Impôts sur les sociétés M€ -4,92 -9,32 3,23 1,24

Résultat net pdg M€ 15,1 47,2 18,0 24,1

Résultat net ajusté, pdg M€ 15,1 47,2 18,0 24,1

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Cash flows d'exploitation total M€ 35,3 96,6 64,6 70,8

Investissements matériels M€ -25,3 -23,0 -18,0 -18,0

Flux d'investissement net M€ -34,7 -81,6 -28,0 -28,0

Dividendes (maison mère) M€ -8,60 -16,4 -15,8 -17,1

Augmentation de capital M€ -9,80 0,00 0,00 0,00

Flux financiers totaux M€ -15,2 97,1 -75,7 -79,7

Variation de la dette nette M€ -34,7 -17,1 1,21 2,13

Cash flow disponible (avant div) M€ -1,50 60,8 29,8 32,0

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Survaleurs M€ 136 206 213 219

Total actif incorporel M€ 173 244 251 257

Immobilisations corporelles M€ 87,3 110 134 157

Droits de tirage M€ 25,8 30,0 35,0 40,0

BFR M€ 48,5 31,8 25,8 22,8

Actif total (net des engagements CT) M€ 386 475 512 550

Capitaux propres part du groupe M€ 232 309 347 387

Provisions pour retraite M€ 18,3 16,2 16,5 16,8

Endettement net / (trésorerie) M€ 149 166 165 163

Passifs totaux M€ 386 475 512 550

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

BPA ajusté (avant amort. des survaleurs et dilution) € 0,66 2,07 0,78 1,04

Dividende net par action € 0,40 0,68 0,65 0,70

Cash flow libre par action € -0,07 2,66 1,29 1,38

Actif net comptable par action € 10,2 13,4 15,0 16,6

Nombre d'actions dilué (moyen) Mio 22,8 22,9 23,1 23,2

Detailed financials at the end of this report

Key Ratios

Compte d'exploitation consolidé

Tableau de financement

Bilan

Données par action

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Chargeurs (Achat)

avril 15 2021 Copyright AlphaValue - 2021 – cs.alphavalue.com Page 2

Table des matièresActivités et tendances............................................................................................................................................

Mécanismes de profit............................................................................................................................................

Valorisation............................................................................................................................................

DCF............................................................................................................................................

Actif net ............................................................................................................................................

Dette............................................................................................................................................

A Savoir............................................................................................................................................

Sustainability............................................................................................................................................

Gouvernance & Mgt............................................................................................................................................

Environment............................................................................................................................................

Social............................................................................................................................................

Staff & Pension matters............................................................................................................................................

Mises à jour............................................................................................................................................

Objectif de cours & Opinion............................................................................................................................................

Graphiques............................................................................................................................................

Comptes............................................................................................................................................

Méthodologie............................................................................................................................................

4

8

11

13

14

15

16

17

18

20

21

22

23

30

31

35

44


Chargeurs (Achat)


Chargeurs, under the aegis of a new owner-manager since the end of 2015, has quietly shifted from a status of a holding company essentially striving to pay back its bankers to that of an industrial conglomerate investing in profitable growth. So

far this successful re-energising has been achieved with the same business lines, though they have also undergone a transformation following the management revamp.

As with any holding company/conglomerate type business, the key is the extent of

the parent company’s involvement in the daily operations. Strategy is obviously the remit of the owner while active management is rather unusual with holding companies but more with conglomerates. That is why Chargeurs falls into that category.

Active management goes with one motto: growth in high-value niche markets with a

world scope. Unsurprisingly, “niche but world reach” is the common feature of the existing four business lines.

Chargeurs’ geographical breadth is a clearly a plus as growth can be built out of the existing rather lean network of commercial units, plants and offices.

The existing businesses are all profitable. After a first phase of relaunch/strategy redefinition, Chargeurs’ management team invested in younger management and an acquisition team. After accumulating financial ammunition in 2017, Chargeurs fired its first significant shots in 2018, both acquisition-wise and by speeding capex

and opex where returns were near-term realisations.

By mid-2019, Chargeurs had four business lines, while its growth ambitions (doubling of revenues by 2021) meant that a biggish acquisition was in the pipeline, possibly in a fifth business.

It may also be stressed that the new management team has displayed an inordinate ability to capture major society trends and turn them to its benefits. This is encapsulated in words such as going all digital, going for “premiumisation” & upmarket, embarking ESG best practices and playing with the ever more intricate supply chains. There is nothing here that other companies will not do, but

Chargeurs seems particularly nimble at extracting more from such shifts.

Protective-Films, Chargeurs’ staying cash machineProtective Films is the world-leader in plastic-films and technical-solutions for temporary surface protection with c.40-years’ experience and a global market share estimated to be above 25%.

Primary end-users (construction, household appliances, electronics, transport and auto sectors) reflect the pace of the global economy (components sourced from everywhere need to travel and be protected) all spurred by the general drive for quality, calling for the protection of parts comprising a finished product. The move to ever-thinner, usable films and associated glues also implies positive mix effects

over the long run. Thin films are also widely used in manufacturing processes such as stamping where they contribute to mechanical properties. Thin films technology can be fairly complex when they unfold at great speed, must not break and avoid

Activités et tendances


Chargeurs (Achat)


generating painful noise.

Thin films is one of those great (and discreet) businesses where the client needs a

quality supplier for a component which is hardly visible in the final cost of the product. Services in effect matter as much as the film. Chargeurs strengthened that link by acquiring in 2017 designers and manufacturers of film-laying machinery. This magnifies the relationship with clients and the value proposition.

2018 sales slowed down sharply after a firework 2017 when clients had both a good year and built up inventories. 2018 were flat on an organic basis. This included the 2016 acquisition of US Main Tape that presumably did well as it was brought to Chargeurs standards. This essentially added manufacturing capacity in the US, a much-needed step to reduce currency mismatches and to meet strong local demand.

Protective Films is still the most visible part of Chargeurs and where industrial performance matters most. The completion of new top notch capacity by H2 19 should be fairly effective in expanding the high value added part of the business

Fashion Technologies, made noble againFrom 2015, Chargeurs split its “old” Interlining business into a “new” Interlining, now dubbed Fashion Technologies, and a speciality business called Technical Substrates (please see below).

Plugging a new name on an old business tends to misfire rapidly. Not here as the plans were clearly to steer the old business of supplying interlining for traditional garments to one of servicing fast-fashion with interlining being a starting point. The big move happened in 2018 when Chargeurs bought a business PCC with its entrepreneurial boss immediately promoted to the head of the revamped Fashion Technologies. PCC is no longer about a product but about servicing the fashion

industry. The significance of the move is highlighted by the fact that the business has been rebranded PCC Fashion Technologies.

PCC started as a coating business which expanded in interlining that can be hot-fused in garments. Its geographical reach is very complementary to Chargeurs as

it adds the US and Asia from which it derives 90% of its revenues. PCC clearly brings to Chargeurs an access to the fashion brands in these two territories. PCC appears to complement the original interlining business of Fashion Technologies by adding new territories but, above all, adding a large service component as its stock in trade. This amounts to being selected as the “prime” contact by a given brand to ensure the timely supply of the various inputs to the actual manufacturers (usually a

motley lot). Brand designers indeed rely on subcontractors with frequent issues of quality consistency.

Fashion Technologies’ sales should overtake the €200m revenue mark as soon as 2019. EBIT margins may not be far from 9% once the integration of this €66m acquisition (7.5x Ebitda) is completed.

The 2018 regime change at Fashion Technologies is a big signal that this division, which employs half of the group’s staff but accounts for a quarter of sales, sees


Chargeurs (Achat)


itself as capable of moving the needle.

Museum Solutions (ex-Technical Substrates): a growth story in unexpected waysAs soon as 2014, it appeared that non-apparel end-markets for interlining (which is essentially a sophisticated non-woven robust textile) had gained substance. This has been the case in the advertising industry where technical textile bases

(although different from interlinings’) appear to have found fresh usages. The principle is to endow technical textiles with the right substrate to give them ad hoc features (say capture only a certain type of light). In 2015, Chargeurs segregated these activities into a new business called Technical Substrates.

The growth potential from an admittedly low base is high and seems to be a case of

discovering it as one walks. The acquisition of a small UK firm, Leach, has been a catalyst with the technical substrate being framed on a “lightbook”, thereby opening a vast market of high quality pictures used in fashion shops and museums alike. The latter quickly became the focus for the division through a series of acquisitions made in 2019. The addition of three companies (Design PM, MET Studio and Hypsos) to the Chargeurs roster of niche-focused businesses resulted in the

creation of a market leader in the business of museum servicing. In early 2020, the strategic redirection of the business was fully established, through the acquisition of the market leader in the US-based museum services market, D&P Incorporated and the subsequent renaming of the division to Museum Solutions. Going beyond the original technical substrate offering provided by Leach, to now encompass the

entire value chain in exhibit production and museum projects. The business ambitions are clearly set with a target tripling of 2018 sales to €100m by 2021, which is expected to be reached quite ahead of schedule thanks to the acquisition of D&P.

Luxury Materials (ex Chargeurs-Wool)Chargeurs has long been a leading world player in the “top making” and sale of combed, top of the range wool (6% est. market share). It knows the wool industry inside-out but essentially withdrew from the risk side (industrial processing, market making) back in 2012. It is about servicing with a turnover highly dependent on wool prices, though no risk at the operating profit level, which is stable at around 2.5% of the turnover.

Its knowledge has been put at work when Chargeurs launched its plan to act as a quality guarantor over the full wool manufacturing process. Blockchain based end-to-end quality control for top quality wools is the objective so as to capitalise on the demand for ever-higher-quality natural fibres and ever-thinner materials. This is an

ambitious plan (encapsulated under the Organica branding) as it will take time and considerable energy to convince the worldwide wool supply chain that this is a winning strategy. In 2018 and presumably to make the point, the wool business rebranded Luxury Materials launched a luxury wool brand: Amédée 1851 selling scarves. All very classy and useful to show that blockchain works in the wool industry.

Human assetsIn all, in less than four years, Chargeurs has successfully given a new life to its


Chargeurs (Achat)


Secteur 12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E Chgt 20E/19 Chgt 21E/20E

M€% du total M€

% du total

Total sales 626 822 649 708 196 100 % -173 100 %

Protective Films Chimie de spécialité 278 270 285 302 -8 -4 % 15 -9 %

Fashion Technologies (ex Inte...

Distribution textile 211 (1) 132 146 163 -79 -40 % 14 -8 %

Museum Solutions (ex Techni...

Matériaux technologiques

37,3 51,6 59,9 65,8 14 7 % 8 -5 %

Luxury Materials (ex Wool) Distribution textile 100 64,6 70,4 81,3 -35 -18 % 6 -3 %

Healthcare Solutions Autres services de santé

304 88,0 95,0 304 155 % -216 125 %

Other 0,00 (2) 0,00 (2) 0,00 0 0 % 0 0 %

four business lines through tight management and the conviction that any niche is worth exploring further. By successively convincing existing staff to wake up, go for

profitable growth and then hire young talents, train them and make acquisitions, Chargeurs has managed to surprise about every observer.

Nous identifions les expositions aux thématiques macro économiques (quelle est la part du chiffre d'affaires exposée au Dollar par ex.) plutôt que les sensibilités (quel est l'impact d'une variation de 5pc du Dollar sur le résultat net par ex.). Les expositions du chiffre d'affaires sont simples à comprendre. Celles qui concernent les coûts sont plus difficiles à identifier. C'est encore plus complexe en termes de fonds propres. L'évaluation se fait en prenant par défaut la position d'un investisseur en action jugeant de son patrimoine en Euro. Certains cas de figure sont délicats à démonter tel qu'un investisseur de la zone Euro achetant une valeur suisse cotant en CHF mais avec des comptes en Dollar...

Chiffre d'affaires par division

1. L'acquisition de PCC a augmenté d'environ 80m$ le chiffre d'affaires du groupe

2. Augmentation du chiffre d'affaires via les acquisitions. Estimation AV. Éventuellement avec la création d'un cinquième secteur d'activité

Revenus Coûts Fonds propres

$ Canadien 0,0 % 10,0 % 0,0 %

Devises "émergentes" 10,0 % 10,0 % 0,0 %

Dollar 15,0 % 10,0 % 0,0 %

Pétrole (Brent $/bl) 0,0 % 13,0 % 0,0 %

Renminbi 12,0 % 10,0 % 0,0 %

Risque climatique à long term 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 %

Principales expositions

Europe 43,0 %

Dont Italie 12,0 %

Dont Allemagne 7,0 %

Dont France 7,0 %

Asia 31,0 %

Dont Chine 12,0 %

Americas 26,0 %

Dont Etats-Unis 18,0 %

Géographie du chiffre d'affaires


Chargeurs (Achat)


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After a brilliant 2017, 2018 earnings slowed down on a combination of slowing

global growth and well-flagged opex efforts to ramp up the long-term growth potential. 2018 managed a commendable lfl top-line growth of +2.6% and underlying operating profit up 6.5% and thus slightly improving margins, propped up by a rising mix.

Year after year, the Chargeurs mantra of doing better through staff training, premiumisation and branding appears to be paying off.

Defining a business model for a holding company/conglomerate is primarily making a case about a management philosophy. Chargeurs’ is about keeping a firm hand

on growth plans devised by imaginative younger managers. It seems to be about investing in human beings rather than flipping assets with a bunch of private equity style asset managers. Genuine no-nonsense value creation has its benefits: a build-up of real, palpable assets that minority shareholders can hope to share through a rising stream of dividends.

The above has produced convincing growth and earnings growth over the last four years. It may be tested further by the stated ambition to hit a €1bn target in revenues by 2021, i.e. through acquisitions. The foundations are here but the build-up will be an interesting one nevertheless.

In the next few paragraphs, we address the idiosyncrasies of the four current business lines:

Protective Films: hopefully less cyclicalProtective Films has been working hard to make itself a must in processing

industries where it is needed. The culture is one of continuing investment in making the product ever better, thinner, more silent, greener, etc. Going upmarket is aimed at avoiding the boom-bust nature of chemical-related products.

Adding capacity in the right geographies also helps smooth cycles. As a de facto speciality chemicals business (polyethylene is the main base input), Protective

Films is all about capacity usage, productivity gains, passing on higher input costs through ad hoc price revisions and pass-through contracts, in addition to upgrading the product on a continuous basis.

Like so many industrial firms, Protective Films has been making a dash for more

with the acquisition of three small firms supplying thin-film application machines. This not only captures an extra turnover on must-have equipment but also offers an eye on the actual ways clients are using protective films. Providing extra insight into consumption will permit Protective Films to expand its service content, so far limited to delivery timeliness. This higher service component is a slow build-up process but creates the conditions for improved client stickiness and securing lasting high

margins.

The near-term earnings outlook for Protective Films is one when new capacity will come on stream, then ramped up and marketed as part of a holistic effort to raise the value proposition. This means EBIT margins gaining a few blips.

Mécanismes de profit


Chargeurs (Achat)


Where the upper limits stand for EBIT margins is rather hard to gauge as the business is concentrated on a small number of players but faces no serious barrier to entry for a chemical group willing to have a go. That has not really happened so far. Growth and subsequent margins are more determined by the flow of acquisitions aimed at locking market share here and there, and organic growth

through innovation, quality and services.

We see the Ebit developing as follows:

Source: Company reports, AlphaValue estimates.

Fashion TechnologiesFashion Technologies is driven by the apparel market and its inclination for boom-

bust economics. Recovering historic 5% peak margins looked an aggressive target. Well, 2016 reached 6.1%, only partly helped by the disposal of a loss-making Chinese operation, and 2017 managed 6.2% with flat sales (up 1.3% lfl) and 2018 shot through the roof to 9.2%, only partly helped by the booking over four months of the excellent margins at PCC.

The hunch that structural pressure due to competition from low-cost countries and fast-changing tastes could be dealt with a close collaboration with fast-fashion and strong-fashion brands proved correct. Designing the right type of high tech interlinings, helping clients, setting up capacity next to client plants and, above all, move into partnership/servicing type of business model has paid off. Indeed, clients need dependability and a high level of confidence in their suppliers due to their

extra short turnaround times. So that beyond the fact that price competition is bound to remain, there is a case in believing that margins may be partly defended by the higher level of service that Fashion Technologies is cultivating.

2018 showed a pickup in recurring EBIT margin that does not look sustainable in

the near term as the business integrates PCC and invests in moving further upmarket. However, the clear message is that margins should no longer see the volatility of the old “interlining” business.

Museum Solutions (ex-Technical Substrates)In its fourth year as a separate operation, the previously named Technical


Chargeurs (Achat)


http://corporate.alphavalue.fr/Secure/Handlers/ImageStampHandler.ashx?Id=b27c82d1-816a-e911-80ec-00155d062807&type=.png

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E Chgt 20E/19 Chgt 21E/20E

M€ % du total M€ % du

total

Total 41,4 75,9 41,4 52,3 35 100 % -35 100 %

Protective Films 23,6 17,6 22,5 26,6 -6 -17 % 5 -14 %

Fashion Technologies (ex Interlining) 17,5 5,67 9,03 13,4 -12 -34 % 3 -10 %

Museum Solutions (ex Technical Substrates) 2,80 2,12 4,31 5,53 -1 -2 % 2 -6 %

Luxury Materials (ex Wool) 2,70 -2,00 0,50 1,40 -5 -14 % 3 -7 %

Healthcare Solutions 58,0 10,6 10,8 58 168 % -47 137 %

Other/cancellations -5,20 -5,50 (3) -5,50 (3) -5,50 0 -1 % 0 0 %

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Total 6,61 % 9,23 % 6,38 % 7,38 %

Protective Films 8,49 % 6,50 % 7,90 % 8,80 %

Fashion Technologies (ex Interlining) 8,31 % 4,30 % 6,20 % 8,20 %

Museum Solutions (ex Technical Su... 7,51 % 4,10 % 7,20 % 8,40 %

Luxury Materials (ex Wool) 2,69 % -3,10 % 0,71 % 1,72 %

Healthcare Solutions 19,1 % 12,0 % 11,4 %

Substrates’ business model has shifted with the integration of Leach. What was an industrial act – producing technical substrates in the right quality – has now moved onto a final product (image displayed on a box) but with new unexpected markets such as museums. The growth ambitions with €100m planned by 2021 presumably mean acquisitions and most likely changing business models so that our 16% EBIT

margin is more a stab in the dark than a substantiated guess. The recent acquisition of US market leader D&P Incorporated sheds some light on the profitability of the business, expecting a c.10% recurrent operating margin, although potential synergies unlocked from Chargeurs’ roster of museum servicing companies may allow for improving margins in the mid-term.

Luxury Materials (ex. Wool)The wool industry is a world apart to which the group is applying its recipes of raised mix and branding. Moving toward the luxury end of the market by acting as a quality guarantor certainly involves a shift in the business model where branding as a quality warranty is generating revenues independently from volumes changing

hands. This will take time.

As a reminder market risks associated with the wool markets have been capped to the equity held (50% stakes worth about €11m as close 2018) in the wool-transforming associates with no additional commitment. The business thus no longer ties up any significant capital so that ROCEs are actually not bad at c.10%.

The risks have fallen but significant growth will hinge on a combination of demand shifts in favour of natural fibres and the ability of the division to charge for its effort to structure the industry along quality obligations with the help of modern tracking technologies.

Underlying operat. profit par division

3. Combine les coûts centraux d'environ 8m€ par an et la contribution au niveau de l'exploitation des cibles nouvellement acquises

Marge d'Underlying operat. profit par division


Chargeurs (Achat)


We regard Chargeurs SA as an industrial conglomerate with a holding company profile as its activities are clearly independent and do not complement each other beyond sharing common central costs and resources despite the fact that they all address high value niche markets. It is for the parent holding company to make sure that the world reach of its subsidiaries is better shared on an ad hoc basis. Recent experience has shown that these industrial businesses, while unrelated,

tend to move in synch in rapidly-deteriorating market conditions. There is little prospect of mutually offsetting business cycles in the current spread of assets.

Peer metrics are therefore mostly found within the holding company sector plus the odd reference to specialist chemicals as Protective Films are the dominant business of the small group with half of the sales and 67% of the EBITDA/recurring

profits. We used to apply a discount to the peer-based reference P/E to account for the fact that Chargeurs’ businesses are primarily B2B operations but the strong top-line growth combined with considerable agility no longer warrants this.

The DCF is based on fairly modest EBITDA growth of 3.2%, in line with industry

expectations. We assume that the well managed net debt situation of the group would warrant a tight spread now at 300bp. This reflects the fact that the firm seems determined to keep a substantial financing buffer. The DCF-based valuation is allowing for an acquisition stream before 2021 to match sales target by that date. It also allows for a necessary rights issue at €100m, assuming it will add 4m shares at a price of €25. We make no allowance for the net present value of the tax assets

(see below) beyond what stems from the relatively low tax rate projected from 2020 on (16%).

For the NAV, we stopped using data calculated and provided by the company in the parent company’s financial statements. The more entrepreneurial management

since late 2015 warrants the use of sector multiples which leads to the Protective Films business accounting for c. 67% of the gross assets. The €165m net debt position expected by year-end assumes €70m in acquisitions in 2019.

Finally, there is the vexing issue of what to do with the huge tax loss carry forwards resulting from the historical losses. The previous view, that they were unlikely to be

used up by operations over the next few years and the French tax rule tightening so that the open-ended portion was unlikely ever to materialise, is probably too cautious now that the earnings delivery of the group has been confirmed for the fourth year in a row. The “evergreen” tax loss carry forwards stand at €200m for the group at the closing of 2018, of which the bulk (€192m) in France. That

matters, as Chargeurs will need French profits to make use of tax losses carry forwards. Assuming that post 2021 earnings growth at 3% a year and a 25% tax rate, the NPV of the tax loss carry forward would be c.€40m.

Valorisation


Chargeurs (Achat)


Méthodes Valeurs

(€) Potentiel Poids

Somme des parties 31,9 38 % 55 %

Rendement Comparables 32,7 41 % 20 %

DCF 33,2 43 % 10 %

P/E Comparables 18,9 -19 % 10 %

Cours/Actif net comptable Comparables 23,6 2 % 5 %

Objectif de cours 30,5 31 %

Calculé sur 18 mois de prévisions P/E (x) Cours/Actif net comptable (x) Rendement (%)

Ratios des pairs 21,4 1,37 2,27

Ratios Chargeurs 26,4 1,49 2,89

Prime 0,00 % 10,0 % 10,0 %

Cours objectifs (€) 18,9 23,6 32,7

AkzoNobel 29,4 3,50 1,17

GBL 21,8 0,70 3,10

Bolloré 10,8 1,01 1,44

Hal Trust 39,6 1,63 3,87

Solvay 40,6 2,16 2,67

Wacker Chemie 30,8 2,30 0,93

Ackermans & van Haaren 13,4 1,35 1,83

Sonae 6,92 0,68 6,22

Valorisation

Valorisation basée sur les comparables


Chargeurs (Achat)


12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E Croissance 12/23E 12/30E

Chiffres d'affaires M€ 626 822 649 708 3,00 % 729 897

EBITDA M€ 60,0 97,3 63,3 74,6 3,00 % 76,8 94,4

Marge d'EBITDA % 9,58 11,8 9,75 10,5 10,5 10,5

Variation du BFR M€ -13,3 16,7 6,04 3,02 2,50 % 3,10 3,68

Cash flow d'exploitation total M€ 40,2 106 61,4 69,6 79,9 98,1

Impôts sur les sociétés M€ -4,92 -9,32 3,23 1,24 2,50 % 1,27 1,51

Bouclier fiscal M€ -3,45 -3,84 -5,04 -6,24 2,50 % -6,40 -7,60

Investissements matériels M€ -25,3 -23,0 -18,0 -18,0 4,00 % -18,7 -24,6

Investissements matériels/CA % -4,04 -2,80 -2,77 -2,54 -2,57 -2,75

Cash flows libres avant coût du financement

M€ 6,55 69,8 41,6 46,6 56,0 67,4

Divers ajustements (incl R&D, etc.) pour les besoins...

M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Free cash flow ajustés M€ 6,55 69,8 41,6 46,6 56,0 67,4

Free cash flow actualisés M€ 6,55 69,8 38,5 40,1 44,7 31,8

Capitaux investis € 347 436 470 506 527 693

DCF par action

Coût moyen pondéré du capital (CMPC) % 7,81

Valeur actuelle des cash flow des années 1 à 11

M€ 382

Free cash flow de l'année 11 M€ 68,7

Taux de croissance à l'infini "g" % 2,00

Sustainability "g" % 1,80

Valeur terminale M€ 1 144

Valeur actuelle de la valeur terminale M€ 540

en % de la valeur totale % 58,5

Valeur totale actuelle M€ 922

Dette (trésorerie) nette moyenne M€ 165

Provisions M€ 16,7

Pertes/(gains) actuariels non reconnus M€ 0,00

Immobilisations financières (juste valeur)

M€ 32,3

Intérêts minoritaires (juste valeur) M€ 0,00

Valeur des fonds propres M€ 772

Nombre d'actions Mio 23,2

DCF par action € 33,2

Impact de la durabilité sur le DCF % -2,35

Evaluer le coût du capital Taux sans risque synthétique % 3,50

Prime de risque normative % 5,00

Taux d'impôt normalisé % 30,0

Échéance moyenne de la dette Année 5

Bêta sectoriel x 0,87

Bêta de la dette x 0,60

Capitalisation boursière M€ 537

Dette nette (trésorerie) à valeur comptable

M€ 166

Dette nette (trésorerie) à valeur de marché (Est.)

M€ 134

Spread de crédit bp 300

Coût marginal de la dette % 6,50

Bêta de la société (endettée) x 1,02

Ratio d'endettement à valeur de marché % 30,9

Dette/VE % 23,6

Taux de rentabilité exigé par les actionnaires

% 8,62

Coût de la dette % 4,55

Coût des fonds propres desendettés % 7,86

Coût moyen pondéré du capital (CMPC) % 7,81

Calcul du DCF


Chargeurs (Achat)


% détenu Technique

d'évaluation Multiple utilisé

Participation à 100%

(M€)

Valorisationparticipation

(M€)

En devise par action

(€)

% des actifs bruts

Protective Films 100 % EV/EBITDA 14,5 447 447 (1) 19,2 49,2 %

Healthcare Solutions 100 % EV/EBITDA 10 223 223 9,60 24,6 %

Fashion Technologie... 100 % EV/EBIT 9 90,0 90,0 (2) 3,87 9,92 %

Museum Solutions (e... 100 % EV/EBIT 12 78,0 78,0 3,36 8,59 %

Luxury Materials (ex ... 100 % Adj.

historical price

35,0 35,0 1,51 3,86 %

Tax loss carryforwards 100 % AlphaValue

valuation 35,0 35,0 (3) 1,51 3,86 %

Autre

Actif brut 908 39,1 100 %

Trésorerie/(dette) nette fin d'année -166 (4) -7,14 -18,3 %

Engagements donnés

Engagements reçus

Somme des parties 742 31,9 81,7 %

Nbre d'actions net de l'autocontrôle (fin d'année) 23,2

Somme des parties par action (€) 31,9

Décote du cours actuel par rapport à la somme des parties (%) 27,3

Somme des parties

1. Compte tenu des multiples en vigueur dans le secteur de la chimie de spécialité

2. En tenant compte de l'acquisition de PCC en juin 2018

3. Valeur actuarielle nette des économies sur la facture d'impôt par emploi des reports fiscaux déficitaires

4. Trésorerie nette du groupe attendue en fin d’exercice


Chargeurs (Achat)


12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

EBITDA M€ 60,0 97,3 63,3 74,6

Cash flow des opérations M€ 38,8 67,3 42,0 47,2

Fonds propres M€ 232 309 347 387

Dette brute M€ 216 346 305 266

+ Trésorerie brute M€ 67,5 180 141 104

= Dette nette / (trésorerie) M€ 149 (4) 166 165 163

Ratio d'endettement % 51,9 50,9 47,7 42,2

Dette nette ajustée/EBITDA(R) x 2,91 2,01 3,15 2,72

Dette brute ajustée/EBITDA(R) x 3,92 3,72 5,09 3,80

Dette brute ajustée/(Dette brute ajustée+Fonds ... % 50,3 53,9 48,2 42,3

Ebit cover x 3,47 5,99 2,35 2,49

CF des opérations/dette brute % 16,5 18,6 13,0 16,7

CF des opérations/dette nette % 26,1 40,6 25,5 29,1

FCF/Dette brute ajustée % -0,64 16,8 9,25 11,3

(Tréso. brute + FCF + Découverts)/Dette CT x 2,89 5,96 4,37 3,85

FCF/Dette CT x 0,01 1,51 0,77 0,92

From 2014, Chargeurs has been running a net cash position down to c.€9m in 2017 and shifting to a €92m net debt as a result of the 2017 and 2018 acquisitions.

Funding has not been an issue as Chargeurs’ management wisely accumulated excess resources to that effect through a combination of private debt placings

(Euro PP) between 2016 and 2017 and various credit lines. Most notably, Chargeurs syndicated a bank loan of €230m at the close of 2018. While the group is left with significant dry powder to go and purchase its growth, its 2021 objective of reaching €1bn in sales cannot be exclusively debt funded, with the company feeling comfortable with a net debt/EBITDA ratio below 2.5x. On a funding scenario used in AlphaValue modelling where Chargeurs raises €100m in new equity by

2020, its net debt/EBITDA ratio would remain below 1.5x.


Begin End Trigger Condition Consequence

30/06/2017 31/12/2023 Net debt/Ebitda(R) < 3,50 Early repayment

30/06/2017 31/12/2023 Gearing < 85,0 Early repayment

Dette

Financement et liquidité

4. Includes €26.4m in short- and long-term lease liabilities.

Covenants


Chargeurs (Achat)


A bit of history2015 experienced a tectonic change in the Chargeurs shareholding with 28% of the equity changing hands (see Governance section). This brought to an end about 25 years of management by Mr Eduardo Malone backed by the historical main shareholder of Chargeurs, Mr Seydoux. Both then exercised their control through convertibles that were converted in September 2015. An ad hoc grouping of

investors named Columbus Holding SAS has since been the new “reference” shareholder. Columbus has been set up for the sole purpose of owning Chargeurs shares and is managed by Mr Michaël Fribourg who also acts as the Chairman and CEO of Chargeurs SA. The relative weights of the Columbus shareholders remain unknown but Mr Fribourg made it clear by early 2019 that he had gained the “vast majority” of Columbus. Columbus itself may be geared to some extent as

Chargeurs has established an active dividend policy.

Convincing driveThe big change introduced by the new owner and manager is to pursue a clear line of profitable growth across the existing four lines of business. They are identified

as niche businesses but big enough, due to the world reach of Chargeurs, to offer considerable earnings/dividends prospects provided there is a process to address that growth potential.

Over the last three years, it is clear that the new governance has whipped into positive action existing businesses and managed to surround itself with a new

breed of entrepreneurial managers at headquarter level. This appears to result in a positive mixture of extracting more from existing operations through a development logic (as opposed to the cost-paring obsessions of too many managers) and preparing the group for quality growth through well-prepared acquisitions.

Next big stepChargeurs’ drive for growth has set a 2021 target at €1bn, which requires acquired growth and a rights issue according to our projections. It is unknown whether such acquired growth may end up adding a fifth business line.

Nom % détenu Dont droits de votes

Dont flottant

Columbus Holding SAS 27,8 % 29,8 % 0,00 %

Sycomore Asset Mgt 10,4 % 10,2 % 10,4 %

Flottant 72,2 %

A Savoir

Actionnaires


Chargeurs (Achat)

15 avril 2021 Copyright AlphaValue - 2021 – cs.alphavalue.com Page 16

Sustainability is made of analytical items contributing to the E, the S and the G, that can be highlighted as sustainability precursors and can be combined in an intellectually acceptable way. This is the only scale made available

Score Poids

Governance

Independent directors rate 6/10 25 %

Diversité géographique du Board 3/10 20 %

Fonction de Chairman distincte de l’exécutif 5 %

Environment

CO² Emission 6/10 25 %

Water withdrawal 2/10 10 %

Social

Wage dispersion trend 3/10 5 %

Satisfaction au travail 0/10 5 %

Communication interne 10/10 5 %

Sustainability score 4,4/10 100%

Sustainability score


Chargeurs (Achat)


Since October 2015, the change of control has led to a change of governance with Mr Michaël Fribourg acting as Chairman and CEO whereas the previous set up was to split the Chairman and CEO positions. There are six new board members: Mr Fribourg, Mr Coquoin (an asset manager for the Habert-Dassault family office), Mr Urbain as a Columbus representative, Ms Cecilia Ragueneau, Ms Maria Varciu

and Ms Isabelle Guichot.

Mr Fribourg took over the full management of Chargeurs in a remarkably short time span by late 2015 and has since been shifting gears in the right direction with impressive results.

The striking aspect of the “new” Chargeurs is that it is new in its management style with a CEO keen to rebuild the growth potential of existing businesses through positive, entrepreneurial management. The eye remains keenly focused on the financial performance and a defensive balance sheet which is a hard act for anyone to execute.

So far, so impressive, with presumably more to come in the shape of add-on acquisitions.

Company (Sector) Independent board

6,1 (5,3) Oui

Parameters Société Secteur Score PoidsNombre de membres du CA 7 10 9/10 5,0 %

Féminisation du CA 42 35 8/10 5,0 %

85 68 3/10 10,0 %

Age moyen des membres du CA 54 60 8/10 5,0 %

Type of company : Small cap, controlled 4/10 10,0 %

Independent directors rate 57 38 6/10 20,0 %

Une Action, un droit de vote 10,0 %

Fonction de Chairman distincte de l’exécutif 0,0 %

Chairman n’est pas un ancien membre du comité de direction 5,0 %

Transparence totale des rémunérations du comité de direction 5,0 %

Transparence des seuils à atteindre avant attribution de bonus 5,0 %

Le comité des rémunérations rapporte au Conseil d’Administration 5,0 %

Statuts intelligibles et simples 15,0 %

Score de gouvernance 6,1/10 100,0 %

Gouvernance & Management

Score de gouvernance


Chargeurs (Achat)


Nom Fonction Date de naissance

Date d'entrée

Date de sortie

Salaire, in k€ (year)

Trésorerie Rémunération en

titres Michaël FRIBOURG M DG 1982 2015 1 325 (2019)

Olivier BUQUEN M DAF 2016 (2019)

Matthieu BALESCUT M Member of the management board 1976 2018

Joelle FABRE-HOFFMEISTER F Member of the management board 2016

Angela CHAN F Executive Officer 1967 2017

Laurent DEROLEZ M Executive Officer 1958

Sampiero LANFRANCHI M Executive Officer 1983 2017 (2019)

Federico PAULLIER M Executive Officer 1960 2013

Nom Indep. Fonction Fin du mandat actuel

Date de naissance

Date d'entrée

Date de sortie

Jetons de présence, in k€

(year)

Valeur des titres, in k€ (year)

Michaël FRIBOURG M Président 2018 1982 2015 0,00 (2019)

Emmanuel COQUOIN M Membre 2020 1961 2015 64,6 (2019)

Isabelle GUICHOT F Membre 2019 1966 2016 51,7 (2019)

Cecilia RAGUENEAU F Membre 2020 1973 2017 64,6 (2019)

Nicolas URBAIN M Membre 2019 1960 2015 64,6 (2019)

Maria VARCIU F Membre 2021 1973 2019 38,8 (2019)

Georges RALLI M Secretary 2019 1948 2013 51,7 (2019)

Management

Conseil d'administration


Chargeurs (Achat)


Environment

Company Sector

2018 2018

Energy (GJ) per €m in capital employed 3 001 394

Société Pays Environment score Energy (total, in GJ) CO2 Emissions (in tons) Water Withdrawal (in m3) Waste (total, (in tons)

GBL 3/10 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Ackermans & van Haaren 3/10 n/a n/a 811 n/a

Chargeurs 3/10 881 186 n/a n/a n/a

EdenRed 4/10 49 795 7 434 36 970 717

Vivendi 6/10 573 783 49 396 n/a 3 766

Bouygues 5/10 30 772 800 17 400 000 1 000 000 n/a

Eurazeo 4/10 10 373 748 806 754 37 979 804 44 377

Bolloré 3/10 5 627 624 346 672 1 731 283 188 942

Wendel 3/10 n/a 28 641 n/a 7 846

VIEL & Cie 3/10 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Amundi 7/10 85 187 11 754 36 573 289

Worldline 9/10 320 571 6 857 22 437 549

DWS 3/10 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Deutsche Boerse 9/10 245 171 6 736 74 633 32

Porsche 3/10 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Nexi 9/10 64 977 79 694 49 927 621

Exor 3/10 110 106 n/a n/a 7

Adyen 3/10 n/a 2 565 n/a n/a

Hal Trust 3/10 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Heineken Holding 4/10 25 604 800 1 529 000 93 100 000 4 443 250

Euronext NV 5/10 41 151 n/a 253 892 n/a

Sonae 3/10 3 470 999 198 540 2 938 251 125 433

Corporacion Financiera Alba 3/10 1 503 111 11 n/a

Investor 3/10 n/a 449 170 n/a n/a

Industrivärden 3/10 n/a 18 n/a n/a

Kinnevik Investment 3/10 n/a 602 n/a n/a

London Stock Exchange Group 9/10 247 635 8 546 98 077 822

Environmental Score

Data sets evaluated as trends on rolling calendar, made sector relative

Parameters Score Sector Poids

Energy 1/10 3/10 25 %

CO² Emission 6/10 6/10 30 %

Waste 1/10 2/10 15 %

Water withdrawal 2/10 4/10 30 %

Company (Sector)

2,80 (3,98)

Environmental metrics

Sector figures


Chargeurs (Achat)


http://corporate.alphavalue.fr/Secure/Company/LongPdf/LongPdf.aspx



























Company (Sector)

5,9 (5,6)

AlphaValue analysts tick boxes on essential components of the social/HR corporate life. Decision about ticking Yes or No is very much an assessment that combines the corporate’s communication on relevant issue and the analyst’s better judgment from experience.

Qualitative score

Parameters Oui / Non Poids

Accidents du travail 25 % Des objectifs ont-ils été fixés sur tous les sites du groupe? 10,0 %

Les accidents du travail sont-ils en diminution? 15,0 %

Developpement des ressources humaines 35 % Les compétences nécessaires pour atteindre les objectif du groupe sont-elles identifiées

3,5 %

Existe-t-il un plan de recrutement à moyen terme (2 à 5 ans) 3,5 %

Existe-t-il une stratégie de formation pour atteindre les objectifs fixés par la société?

3,5 %

Les salariés sont-ils formés aux objectifs de demain? 3,5 %

Tous les salariés ont-ils accès à la formation? 3,5 % Le groupe n’a pas fait de plan social ou tout autre forme licenciement économique sur l'année?

3,5 %

Les talents sont-ils restés? 3,5 %

Les managers ont-ils des objectifs de management? 3,5 %

Si oui, les résultats sont-ils pris en compte pour la reévaluation salariale? 3,5 % La mobilité interne entre les différentes unités du groupe est-elle encouragée?

3,5 %

Paye 20 % Existe-t-il un comité de rémunération ? 6,0 %

La rémunération variable prend-t-elle en compte la performance du groupe et celle du salarié?

14,0 %

Satisfaction au travail 10 % Existe-t-il une mesure de la satisfaction des salariés? 3,3 %

Chacun peut-il y participer? 3,4 %

Y a-t-il un plan d'action pour améliorer le moral des salariés? 3,3 %

Communication interne 10 % La stratégie et les objectifs du groupe sont-ils disponibles pour tous les salariés?

10,0 %

Qualitative score 9,0/10 100.0%

Social

Quantitative metrics (67 %)

Set of staff related numerical metrics available in AlphaValue proprietary modelling aimed at ranking on social/HR matters

Parameters Score PoidsStaffing Trend 7/10 15 %

Average wage trend 3/10 30 %

Share of added value taken up by staff cost 7/10 20 %

Share of added value taken up by taxes 3/10 15 %

Wage dispersion trend 3/10 20 %

Pension bonus (0 or 1) 0 Quantitative score 4,4/10 100%

Qualitative metrics (33 %)

Set of listed qualitative criterias and for the analyst to tick

Parameters Score Poids

Accidents du travail 10/10 25 %

Developpement des ressources humaines 10/10 35 %

Paye 10/10 20 %

Satisfaction au travail 0/10 10 %

Communication interne 10/10 10 %

Qualitative score 9,0/10 100%


Chargeurs (Achat)


12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Ratio des engagements retraite % 7,31 4,98 4,53 4,15

Fonds propres part groupe M€ 232 309 347 387

Valeur actualisée des engagements M€ 18,3 16,2 16,5 16,8

dont engagements financés M€ 1,70 2,96 2,82 2,69

dont engagements non financés M€ 16,2 12,8 13,2 13,6

dont autres engagements (santé) M€ 0,40 0,41 0,42 0,42

Ecarts actuariels non comptabilisés au bilan M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Exposition US % 33,0 33,0 33,0 33,0

Exposition GB %

Exposition Euro % 67,0 67,0 67,0 67,0

Exposition Pays Nordiques %

Exposition Suisse %

Autre exposition %

Total % 100 100 100 100

At the end of 2018, Chargeurs employed 2,000 staff, a big jump from the c.1,600 of 2017. Obviously, this is due to acquisitions. About half is European based with the bulk (600) in France mainly driven by the Protective Films and Fashion Technologies operations. Chargeurs is keen both to rebalance its geography of production assets (i.e. new plants out of France) and the need to rejuvenate the

French staff after many years of cost cutting.

Pension risks with a c.€17m deficit (mostly European unfunded plans) remain under control with the group using low discount rates to assess its obligations cautiously at least as far as Europe is concerned. The US discount rate at 4.3%

seems correspondingly high.


Effectifs et retraites

Synthèse des risques liés aux engagements de retraites

Répartition géo. des engagements de retraites


Chargeurs (Achat)


Recent updates

24/02/2021 CHS leads FY20 record result as Chargeurs embarks on new strategic plan Publication Res./CA

In a display of astute and agile management to face the difficult market context brought about by the pandemic, Chargeurs closed a successful FY20 with record profitability. This was driven by the group’s new personal protective equipment venture, in addition to a solid rebound at its core Protective Films division. Parting from an improved scenario in 2021, the group now looks forward to its ambitious 2025 objectives which put a bigger focus on nurturing lfl growth.

Actualité Chargeurs had already released its group revenues for FY20 in January, figures that came in slightly below our forecasts (-2.3%). Meanwhile, the recurring

operating result came in 4.5% above our forecast, reaching €79.3m, a historical high. The outperformance was driven by a stronger than anticipated profitability for Chargeurs Healthcare Solutions (CHS), which achieved an operating margin of 20.9% versus our 19.1% estimate. The operating performance for the group’s historical businesses fell in line with our expectations.

The descriptive P&L provided by the company, shown in the table below, clearly displays the different drivers behind the FY20 record result.

With regards to the group’s net debt position, there was little change as it increased just slightly from €122.4m in 2019 to €126.7m at the close of FY20. This coupled with a record EBITDA of €102.4m, driven by the strong operating results, led to a 1.2x net debt/EBITDA ratio, putting the group on a solid stance to execute its new strategic plan with a 2025 horizon.

The notable results have been accompanied by a notable dividend, jumping from €0.40 per share last year to €1.32 per share on the FY20 earnings (of which €0.28 has already been paid as an interim dividend).

Analyse Looking at Chargeurs’ FY20 release, we have to recognise the feat achieved by


Chargeurs (Achat)


http://corporate.alphavalue.fr/Secure/Handlers/ImageStampHandler.ashx?Id=e1fad69f-2e75-eb11-8106-00155d062807&type=.png

the group’s management, which was capable of turning an adverse context into an opportunity to create a novel business line that will now stand as the fifth pillar behind the group’s newfound organic growth ambitions, as it turns the page from the previous Game Changers strategic plan. It is also an accomplishment that Chargeurs exits a turbulent 2020 with a more solid financial standing, while funding

two tactical acquisitions adding the final flourish to complete the group’s “one-stop-shop” Museum Solutions division.

Divisional revenue breakdown

Source: Company reports

Protective Films’ strong Q4 20 bounce-back boosts 2021 outlookTaking into account the very challenging trading environment in the CPF’s main markets for a better part of last year, the division was able to recoup most of the

ground lost, closing the year with revenues of €270.4m, only -1.8% lfl below the 2019 level.

Profitability was also relatively resistant, as CPF’s products are an essential part of industrial supply chains worldwide, while its high-end market positioning helps diminish margin erosion. The decline was modest with the recurring operating profit

margin falling from 8.5% in 2019 to 6.3% (€17.0m) in 2020. The resilient operating result should lead to a material improvement in 2021 as volumes recover to their pre-pandemic levels.

Fashion Technologies: fashion sector woes weigh on results and near term scenarioDue to its exposure to the fashion sector, which was hard-hit by the pandemic and the lockdown restrictions that have significantly curtailed the activities of fashion retailers, the division could not escape the drag on revenues and earnings that stand out as the “chip on the shoulder” of an otherwise positive end to the year. CFT-PCC saw its revenues fall by 35.3% lfl in FY20 to €131.8m, and recurring

operating profit shrunk from €17.5m (8.3% margin) to €5.1m (3.9% margin).

Unlike CPF, the 2021 outlook for Fashion Technologies remains challenging, with management being transparent in that we will not see a return to the pre-pandemic levels in the near term. The focus this year should be in safeguarding profitability in

the context of structurally-lower volumes, hence we see profitability improving to a 6.2% recurring operating margin in 2021.

Museum Solutions: New additions offset technical substrates weakness


Chargeurs (Achat)


http://corporate.alphavalue.fr/Secure/Handlers/ImageStampHandler.ashx?Id=97b403a6-2e75-eb11-8106-00155d062807&type=.png

The division’s FY20 results were a contrast of the serious impact of the sanitary crisis on the activities of the legacy business and the good performance of the

newest additions serving the niche of museum servicing and solutions. Regarding the former, the poor retail environment provoked by lockdowns and social distancing measures led to a decline in demand for publicity and posters in retail stores, while the complete lack of expo shows meant a double-blow to the main end-markets for the technical substrates business.

Meanwhile, Chargeurs roster of museum-focused businesses continued securing important contracts that should bring good visibility for the near team. Overall, this resulted in revenues falling 47.5% organically but increasing +38.3% reported to €51.6m. Recurring operating profit came in at €1.9m (3.7% margin).

Healthcare Solutions: Remarkable profitability was a welcome surpriseWhile we had already recognised the accomplishment of the €303.6m revenue contribution from Chargeurs’ newest division. The real cherry on the cake was the exceptional profitability shown by a division that did not exist at the beginning of last year.

The 20.9% recurring operating margin stood above our already bullish (in our view) forecast. While the commercial success of its line of PPE products was facilitated by the unprecedented sanitary context, the fact that management was able to draw significant cash generation (recurring EBIT of €63.5m) out of existing assets

should be applauded. Moreover, the division was built up with a minimal need of capital employed, as the latter remained basically stable compared to the group’s 2019 level.

Although the breakthrough performance seen in FY20 is not likely to be replicated in FY21, as the pandemic is brought under control through the current vaccination

efforts, Chargeurs’ confidence in CHS reaching €50-100m in turnover this year shows that the company has been able to build a strategic asset that will support the group’s growth ambitions, as outlined by the targets in its new strategic plan.

New strategic plan shares acquired growth and lfl growth ambitionsThe publication of the 2020 results also marked the occasion for Chargeurs CEO, Mr Michael Fribourg, to present the roadmap that is set to guide the group over the next five years, dubbed “Leap Forward 2025”. While the pursuit of acquired growth characterised the previous strategic plan, now that the group has been able to forge five divisions anchored in five distinct niches with solid growth potential prospects, the role that organic (embedded in Chargeurs’ lingo) growth will be ever

more important for it to reach is 2025 targets.

The group aims for €1.5bn in revenues by 2025, with a target profitability of 10%, corresponding to €150m in recurring operating profit, compared to a “normalised” 2019 level of €49m. The roughly €100m in additional recurring profitability is to

come in equal parts from lfl growth and acquisitions. Debt should remain relatively stable (currently standing at a 0.5x equity gearing ratio). We see these objectives as a reassuring continuation of a strategy that has served the group well, as evidenced by the satisfactory performance in the midst of a sanitary and economic crisis.


Chargeurs (Achat)


Impact Our model is currently under revision as we incorporate the FY20 figures and we roll forward our forecasts until 2023. We maintain our positive stance on the stock.

28/01/2021 Upgraded FY20 EBIT guidance improves earnings outlook

2020 : € 2,07 vs 1,94 +6,40 %2021 : € 0,78 vs 0,75 +3,66 %

We have raised our EPS estimates for FY20 and FY21 on the back of an upgraded recurring operating profit guidance, from >€70m to over €75m. As a result, we have increased our underlying EBIT estimates from €71.8m to €76.1m in FY20, also increasing our operating result forecast for the Protective Films division (from €16.6m previously to €17.6m) driven by the division’s FY20 reported revenues of €270m, which came in above our forecast of €256m.

Changement d’EPS

28/01/2021 FY20 ends on a high note as Protective Films bounces back Publication Res./CA

While the FY revenues were clearly driven by the success of Chargeurs’ venture into personal protective equipment under the Healthcare Solutions banner, the Q4 figures held a welcome surprise as the Protective Films business bounced back to organic growth.

Actualité Chargeurs reported group revenues of €822m in FY20, a solid +27.5% lfl increase, led by the remarkable results from the Healthcare Solutions division (€304m contribution). Yet Q4 was led by the sales recovery at the Protective Films division

(+8.2% lfl), nearly offsetting the COVID-19 hit, and putting Chargeurs’ cash cow back on the path to profitable growth.

The company also upgraded its FY20 recurring operating profit guidance to over

€75m (versus >€70m previously), while sticking to a cautious 2021 outlook as it prepares for the the new 2025 strategic plan to be presented in February.

Analyse The trading performance of the Protective Films division saw a clear turnaround in H2, with growth accelerating in Q4 on the back of rising demand from construction

and household appliances, which utilise the division’s high quality films. The company was able to meet this demand, at least in part, due to the successful ramp


Chargeurs (Achat)


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-up from its newest production line in Italy.

The strong organic growth seen in Q4 almost fully offset the COVID-19 hit for the

FY, closing only -1.8% lfl below the 2019 level, which was explained by unfavourable pricing for polyethylene. The +8.2% lfl growth from what has been Chargeurs’ historical cash cow was likely the main driver behind the recurring operating income guidance upgrade announced by management.

While the group’s other core businesses remain affected by the pandemic and the

impact from lockdown and social distancing restrictions, Chargeurs was able to leverage its expertise and industrial assets from the CFT-PCC division and technical substrates (under the Museum Solutions banner) for the development of Healthcare Solutions, which became the main driver for the group’s revenue growth in 2020.

The €304m contribution from CHS and the commercial success of its line of personal protective equipment serves as proof of the remarkable execution by management to adapt and seize the opportunities brought by the sanitary crisis. Although the breakthrough performance seen in FY20 is not likely to be replicated in FY21, as the pandemic is brought under control through the current vaccination

efforts, Chargeurs’ confidence in CHS reaching €50-100m in turnover this year shows that the company has been able to build a strategic asset that will support the group’s growth ambitions.

Impact The FY20 revenues came in slightly below (-2.3%) our €841m forecast as we

overestimated the sales performance of CHS over Q4. On the other hand, the sales activity from the Protective Films division significantly outperformed our estimates (€270m reported versus €256m expected).

Given the improved cash generation prospects due to the high-margin contribution

from CPF, we will raise our adjusted EBIT forecast for FY20 which should have a slight positive impact on our valuation. We maintain our positive stance on the stock.

11/11/2020 Healthcare-led Q3 lifts full-year outlook Publication Res./CA

After a blockbuster Q2 led by the newly-added Healthcare division, Chargeurs’ Q3 results were once again bolstered by the strong sales performance in the health-related activities, this time accompanied by a welcome recovery in protective films (also health-related). The positive quarterly performance supports the group’s upgraded FY outlook, which we see as easily achievable.

Actualité Chargeurs’ Q3 revenues rose 12.3% lfl (15.9% reported) to €169.7m on the back


Chargeurs (Achat)


of strong sales at the Healthcare Solutions division, which more than offset the still affected, but improving, core businesses (Protective Films in particular). The 9M sales stand an impressive +45.7% above the 2019 levels at €688.2m, driven by

Healthcare Solutions (€300.6m), while the core businesses have significantly narrowed the sales contraction in Q3 compared to their ytd performance.

Revenue break-down by division

Source: Company reports

Analyse Healthcare leads the way once againThe €46.7m top-line contribution from the newest addition to Chargeurs’ diversified sector exposure has been the definite driver for the group’s quarterly

outperformance. The company has leveraged the expertise and industrial capacity from its core protective films, textiles and technical substrates businesses to solidify its health-related offering…to great results.

Based on the Q3 performance, we see our €312m forecast for the CHS as a low bar to clear. The substantial capacity additions that will result from the new 16

production lines covered by Chargeurs’ new €8m capex plan should support the division’s sustainable sales development in 2021 and beyond.

Protective films nearly out of the woodsAmong the core businesses, the Protective Films division showed a solid recovery

in Q3, with sales declining by just 1.9% lfl to €67.1m. The rebound was also driven by the health industry, as the division supplies high quality protective films used to protect healthcare equipment during transport, in addition to plexiglass needed to ensure social distancing mandates. We see these trends enduring through Q4 which would sustain a better FY sales performance than the 15% yoy contraction we are currently anticipating.

Other core businesses still face a challenging contextThe activity at PCC Fashion Technologies continues to be significantly affected by weakened demand in China and Hong Kong for high-quality interlining, with the global rebound in fashion being fast-fashion-led as evidenced by the positive

surprises at H&M, Zalando, among others. Divisional revenues decreased 29.5% to €32.9m during the quarter and we expect them to remain weakened in Q4. The current fashion industry’s dynamic also explains the poor performance at CLM (-53.6% in Q3 to €9.8m).

Lastly, Museum Solutions (€13m) benefited from scope effects following the integration of D&P, Hypsos and MET, while the historical technical substrates activities remains severely weakened due to the decline in retail and


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conferences/trade-shows; among the most affected industries by lockdown restrictions.

Impact Following the strong Q3, the group has raised once again its FY guidance, now expecting a top-line of +€800m (we currently forecast €812m) and a recurring operating profit of +€70m.

Based on the Q3 release, we will raise our FY revenue estimates for CHS and

CFP, which will mechanically raise our recurring operating income forecasts near the €70m level targeted by the company. We maintain our positive opinion on the stock, supported by the improved FY20 outlook and quite conservative FY21 assumptions.

11/11/2020 Mise à jour

2020 : € 1,94 vs 1,70 +14,4 %2021 : € 0,75 vs 0,69 +8,63 %

Our FY20 EPS estimate increases on the back of higher top-line expectations for the Healthcare Solutions division (€335m versus €312m previously) and a narrower than expected sales contraction for Protective Films (-8.0% versus -15.0% previously), both supported by the performance shown over Q3. The improved revenue expectations mechanically result in a higher recurring operating result,

from €68m prior to €71.8m; the latter falling in line with Chargeurs' upgraded 2020 guidance of +€70m.

These increases are slightly offset by lower FY20 top-line expectations of €52.2m for Museum Solutions, down 12.6% compared to our previous forecast and

explained by the weaker than expected performance from the technical substrates business in H2. Our FY21 outlook for the group remains mostly unchanged, with a slight increase to our top-line expectations of €647.9m, and a conservative €38.1m recurring operating profit forecast.

Changement d’EPS


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Cours & Objectif de cours

Bénéfices par action et Opinion


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L'analyse par le momentum consiste à évaluer la tendance boursière sur un instrument financier, à partir de l'analyse des flux d'échanges sur cet instrument.Les principaux indicateurs utilisés dans notre outil de momentum sont les moyennes mobiles simples sur 3 échelles de temps : le court terme (20 jours de bourse), le moyen terme (50j) et le long terme (150j). Le positionnement de ces moyennes mobiles les unes par rapport aux autres nous indique l'orientation des flux sur ces 3 échelles de temps. Par exemple si les moyennes mobile courtes et intermédiaires sont au dessus de la moyenne longue cela détermine une orientation haussière à confirmer. Nous prenons également en compte la position du dernier cours de bourse par rapport aux trois moyennes mobiles (indicateur avancé) ainsi que la dynamique de ces 3 moyennes -baissière, neutre, haussière- qui est plutôt un indicateur retardé.Les indications directionnelles données par les flux au travers des moyennes mobiles et les cours doivent être confirmées par les volumes pour valider le signal. Nous utilisons pour cela un calcul de hausse moyenne des volumes sur 10 semaines complété par un calcul relatif sur les volumes à la hausses et les volumes à la baisse pour valider nos analyses

: Momentum fortement positif correspondant a une tendance haussière des moyennes mobiles sur toutes les échelles de temps, confirmée par les

volumes.

: Momentum plutôt positif correspondant à une orientation globalement haussière des moyennes mobiles, atténué par une situation de sur-achat ou par l’absence de volumes.

: Momentum plutôt négatif correspondant à une orientation neutre ou baissières des moyennes mobiles, atténué par une situation de sur-vente ou

par l’absence de volumes.

: Momentum fortement négatif correspondant à une tendance baissière des moyennes mobiles sur toutes les échelles de temps, confirmée par les

volumes.

Momentum


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Moyenne mobile MACD & Volume


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€/$ sensibilité

Euro/Chinese Yuan sensibilité


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Brent $/bl sensibilité

Secteur Autres Financières


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12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

PER ajusté x 26,6 7,66 29,8 22,4

PER publié x 26,4 7,71 29,9 22,4

VE/EBITDA(R) x 9,10 5,29 10,8 9,23

P/ANC x 1,71 1,18 1,55 1,40

Rendement du dividende % 2,28 4,29 2,80 3,02

Rendement du cash flow disponible % -0,38 16,7 5,54 5,92

Cours moyen € 17,5 15,8 23,2 23,2

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Chiffre d'affaires M€ 626 822 649 708

Croissance du CA % 9,23 31,3 -21,0 9,02

CA par employé k€ 326 345 213 218

Croissance organique %

Achats et coûts externes (incl. IT) M€

Coûts de personnel M€ -98,9 -105 -115 -124

Loyers de location opérationnelle M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Coût des ventes (indicatif) M€ 459

EBITDA M€ 60,0 97,3 63,3 74,6

EBITDA(R) M€ 60,0 97,3 63,3 74,6

Marge d'EBITDA(R) % 9,58 11,8 9,75 10,5

EBITDA(R) par employé k€ 31,3 40,9 20,8 22,9

Dotations aux amortissements M€ -18,6 -18,9 -20,8 -19,9

Dotations aux amortissements/CA % 2,97 2,30 3,20 2,81

Dépréciations M€ -2,50 (5) -2,50 (5) -3,50 (5) -3,50

Résultat operationnel courant M€ 38,9 75,9 39,0 51,2

Marge opérationnelle courante % 6,21 9,23 6,01 7,23

Autres revenus/dépenses (cash) M€ -7,00 -7,00 -8,00 -8,00

Autres rev./dép. (non cash; incl. reévaluat° d'actifs) M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Valeur actuelle des instruments d'exploitation M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Résultat des JV M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Dividendes versés par les JV M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Cash flow provenant des JV M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Dépréciation des survaleurs M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Résultat d'exploitation (EBIT) M€ 31,9 68,9 31,0 43,2

Charges financières M€ -9,80 -10,8 -14,8 -18,8

dont effectivement décaissé M€ -9,80 -10,0 -14,0 -18,0

Produits financiers M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Autres produits (charges) financiers M€ -1,70 -2,00 -2,00 -2,00

Résultat financier net M€ -11,5 -12,8 -16,8 -20,8

dont services des engagements de retraites M€ -0,30 -0,14 -0,21 -0,24

Profits avant impôts et exceptionnels M€ 20,4 56,1 14,2 22,4

Eléments exceptionnels et autres (avant impôts) M€

dont composante cash M€

Impôt courant M€ -7,02 -16,8 -4,27 -6,26

Déficits fiscaux reportables M€ 3,00 6,50 6,50 6,50

Impôts différés M€ -0,90 1,00 1,00 1,00

Impôts sur les sociétés M€ -4,92 -9,32 3,23 1,24

Taux d'imposition % 24,1 16,6 -22,7 -5,55

Marge nette % 2,47 5,69 2,69 3,33

Mises en équivalence M€ -0,40 0,50 0,50 0,50

Dividendes reçus des mises en équivalences M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Intérêts minoritaires M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Detailed Financials

Clefs de valorisation

Compte d'exploitation consolidé 5. Dépréciation des immobilisations incorporelles acquises


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dividendes versés aux minoritaires M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Résultat des activités destinées à être cédées M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Résultat net pdg M€ 15,1 47,2 18,0 24,1

Dépréciation des survaleurs M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Autres ajustements M€

Résultat net ajusté, pdg M€ 15,1 47,2 18,0 24,1

Economie d'intérêts M€

Résultat corrigé et dilué M€ 15,1 47,2 18,0 24,1

NOPAT M€ 27,0 53,7 28,0 36,5

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

EBITDA M€ 60,0 97,3 63,3 74,6

Variation du BFR M€ -13,3 16,7 6,04 3,02

dont (augm.)/dimin. des créances clients M€ -6,60 -14,3 17,8 -6,70

dont (augm.)/dimin. des stocks M€ 1,80 -26,2 28,8 -11,8

dont augm./(dimin.) des dettes fournisseurs M€ -8,60 57,2 -40,5 21,5

dont augm./(dimin.) autres dettes M€ 0,10 0,00 0,00 0,00

Dividendes reçus des mises en équivalence M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Impôt payé M€ -3,30 -9,32 3,23 1,24

Eléments exceptionnels M€

Autres cash flows d'exploitation M€ -8,10 -8,00 -8,00 -8,00

Cash flows d'exploitation total M€ 35,3 96,6 64,6 70,8

Investissements matériels M€ -25,3 -23,0 -18,0 -18,0

Investissements / dotations aux amortissements % 120 108 74,1 76,9

Acquisitions de titres M€ -9,60 (6) -58,6 (6) -10,0 (6) -10,0

Autres flux d'investissement M€ 0,20 0,00

Flux d'investissement net M€ -34,7 -81,6 -28,0 -28,0

Charges financières nettes M€ -11,5 -12,8 -16,8 -20,8

dont compasante cash M€ -9,80 -12,7 -16,6 -20,6

Dividendes (maison mère) M€ -8,60 -16,4 -15,8 -17,1

Dividendes payés aux minoritaires M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Augmentation de capital M€ -9,80 0,00 (7) 0,00 0,00

dont (achat)/vente d'actions d'autocontrôle M€ -9,80 0,00 0,00 0,00

(Aug.)/réduction de la dette nette M€ 18,6 129 -40,3 -39,0

Autres flux financiers M€ -5,60 -3,00 -3,00 -3,00

Flux financiers totaux M€ -15,2 97,1 -75,7 -79,7

Variations de périmètre M€ -1,50 0,00 0,00 0,00

Variation de la trésorerie M€ -16,1 112 -39,1 -36,9

Variation de la dette nette M€ -34,7 -17,1 1,21 2,13

Cash flow disponible (avant div) M€ -1,50 60,8 29,8 32,0

Cash flow opérationnel M€ 35,3 96,6 64,6 70,8

Taux de réinvestissement (invest./Immo. corporelles) % 29,0 20,8 13,5 11,5

Tableau de financement 6. Niveau normalisé du coût des acquisitions à VE = 1,5x CA

7. L’émission de droits ou d’équivalent est supposée augmenter le nombre d'actions de 4m à 25€ pour maintenir la dette à un niveau acceptable (dette/EBITDA <2x)


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12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Survaleurs M€ 136 206 213 219

Autres immobilisations incorporelles M€ 37,2 38,0 38,0 38,0

Total actif incorporel M€ 173 244 251 257

Immobilisations corporelles M€ 87,3 (8) 110 134 157

Droits de tirage M€ 25,8 30,0 35,0 40,0

Immobilisations financières (invest. LT dans des sociétés) M€ 12,6 20,0 25,0 30,0

Autres immo. financières (optique de placement) M€ 6,70 7,00 7,00 7,00

dont disponible à la vente M€ 0,00 0,00

BFR M€ 48,5 31,8 25,8 22,8

dont clients (+) M€ 73,5 87,8 70,0 76,7

dont stocks (+) M€ 126 152 124 135

dont fournisseurs (+) M€ 151 208 168 189

dont engagements courants (+) M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Autres actifs courants M€ 31,6 32,0 35,0 37,0

dont actifs d'impôts M€

Actif total (net des engagements CT) M€ 386 475 512 550

Capitaux propres part du groupe M€ 232 309 347 387

Intérêts minoritaires M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Provisions pour retraite M€ 18,3 16,2 16,5 16,8

Autres provisions pour risques et charges M€ 0,40 0,50 0,50 0,50

Charges d'IS M€ -27,7 -30,0 -30,0 -30,0

Autres charges M€ 13,4 13,4 13,4 13,4

Endettement net / (trésorerie) M€ 149 (4) 166 165 163

Passifs totaux M€ 386 475 512 550

Endettement net moyen / (trésorerie) M€ 121 157 165 164

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

VE/EBITDA(R) x 9,10 5,29 10,8 9,23

VE/EBIT x 14,0 6,78 17,6 13,5

VE/CA x 0,87 0,63 1,06 0,97

EV/Capital investi x 1,57 1,18 1,46 1,36

Capitalisation boursière M€ 398 364 537 541

+ Provisions (incluant les retraites) M€ 18,7 16,7 17,0 17,3

+ Pertes/(gains) actuariels non reconnus M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

+ Dette nette fin d'année M€ 123 136 130 123

+ Droits d’utilisation (depuis 2019) / Dette implicite aux immo. en ...

M€ 25,8 30,0 35,0 40,0

- Immobilisations financières (juste valeur) et autres M€ 19,3 32,3 32,3 32,3

+ Intérêts minoritaires (juste valeur) M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

= Valeur d'entreprise M€ 546 515 687 688

Bilan 8. Compte tenu d'un investissement de 20m€ de Protective Film à partir de fin 2019 et des amortissements à compter de cette date

4. Includes €26.4m in short- and long-term lease liabilities.

Valeur d'entreprise


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12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

BPA ajusté (avant amort. des survaleurs et dilution) € 0,66 2,07 0,78 1,04

Croissance des BPA % -42,6 213 -62,4 33,3

BPA publié € 0,66 2,05 0,78 1,03

Dividende net par action € 0,40 0,68 0,65 0,70

Cash flow libre par action € -0,07 2,66 1,29 1,38

Cash flow opérationnel par action € 1,55 4,23 2,80 3,05

Actif net comptable par action € 10,2 13,4 15,0 16,6

Nombre d'actions ordinaires Mio 23,8 24,2 24,3 24,5

Equivalent nombre d'actions ordinaires (fin d'année) Mio 23,8 24,2 24,3 24,5

Nombre d'actions pour Capi. Mio 23,8 24,2 24,3 24,5

Autocontröle (fin d'année) Mio 1,15 1,14 1,14 1,14

Nbre d'actions net de l'autocontrôle (fin d'année) Mio 22,7 23,0 23,2 23,3

Nombre d'actions ordinaires moyen Mio 22,8 22,9 23,1 23,2

Conversion d'instruments de dette en actions Mio

Règlement de stock-options exerçables Mio 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Règlement probable de stock-options non exerçables Mio

Autres engagements d'émettre des titres Mio

Dilution (moyenne) Mio 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Nombre d'actions dilué (moyen) Mio 22,8 22,9 23,1 23,2

Survaleur par action € 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

BNA après amort. des survaleurs (dilué) € 0,66 2,07 0,78 1,04

BNA avant amort. des survaleurs (non dilué) € 0,66 2,07 0,78 1,04

Paiement effectif €

Taux de distribution % 60,2 33,1 83,8 67,7

Ratio de "pay out" (div. + rachat / résultat) % 174 33,4 95,3

Données par action


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12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

EBITDA M€ 60,0 97,3 63,3 74,6

Cash flow des opérations M€ 38,8 67,3 42,0 47,2

Fonds propres M€ 232 309 347 387

Dette brute M€ 216 346 305 266

dont échéance moins d'un an M€ 22,8 40,4 39,0 35,2

dont échéance entre 1 et 5 ans M€ 112 263 246 226

dont échéance moins de 2 ans M€ 4,70 39,0 35,2 29,0

dont échéance moins de 3 ans M€ 3,10 35,2 29,0 160

dont échéance moins de 4 ans M€ 41,7 29,0 160 22,0

dont échéance moins de 5 ans M€ 62,0 160 22,0 15,0

dont échéance à plus de 5 ans M€ 82,0 42,0 20,0 5,00

+ Trésorerie brute M€ 67,5 180 141 104

= Dette nette / (trésorerie) M€ 149 (4) 166 165 163

Emprunts bancaires M€ 132 120 108 103

Obligations émises M€ 81,0 81,0 81,0 81,0

Leasing M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Autres financements M€ 3,10 144 116 82,0

Ratio d'endettement % 51,9 50,9 47,7 42,2

Dette nette ajustée/EBITDA(R) x 2,91 2,01 3,15 2,72

Dette brute ajustée/EBITDA(R) x 3,92 3,72 5,09 3,80

Dette brute ajustée/(Dette brute ajustée+Fonds propres) % 50,3 53,9 48,2 42,3

Ebit cover x 3,47 5,99 2,35 2,49

CF des opérations/dette brute % 16,5 18,6 13,0 16,7

CF des opérations/dette nette % 26,1 40,6 25,5 29,1

FCF/Dette brute ajustée % -0,64 16,8 9,25 11,3

(Tréso. brute + FCF + Découverts)/Dette CT x 2,89 5,96 4,37 3,85

FCF/Dette CT x 0,01 1,51 0,77 0,92

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Charge d'IS (Net/Pretax pre-except.) x 0,74 0,84 1,26 1,08

Marge opérationnelle (EBIT/CA) % 5,09 8,38 4,78 6,10

Rotation des actifs(CA/actifs moyens) % 177 191 132 133

Levier (Actifs moyens/Fonds propres moyens) x 1,51 1,59 1,50 1,45

Rendement des fonds propres (ROE) % 6,42 17,4 5,48 6,56

ROA % 10,3 17,8 7,57 9,89

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Fonds propres année N-1 M€ 237 232 309 347

+ Profits nets de l'année M€ 15,1 47,2 18,0 24,1

- Dividendes (maison mère) M€ -8,60 -16,4 -15,8 -17,1

+ Augmentation de capital M€ -9,80 0,00 0,00 0,00

dont diminution (augmentation) de l'autocontrôle M€ -9,80 0,00 0,00 0,00

- Gains (pertes) actuariels non reconnus M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

+ Autres éléments de résultat ("comprehensive") M€ -1,48 45,9 35,4 33,5

= Fonds propres fin d'année M€ 232 309 347 387

Financement et liquidité 4. Includes €26.4m in short- and long-term lease liabilities.

Analyse du ROE par la méthode de Dupont

Réconciliation des capitaux propres


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12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Chiffre d'affaires par employé k€ 326 345 213 218

Coûts de personnel unitaire k€ -51,5 -44,1 -37,8 -38,1

Variation des coûts de personnel % 7,15 6,23 9,74 7,30

Variation des coût de personnel unitaire % 0,01 -14,3 -14,4 0,70

Coûts de pers./(Ebitda+Coûts de pers.) % 62,2 51,9 64,5 62,4

Nombre d'employés moyen utp 1 920 2 380 3 050 3 250

Europe utp 810 865 920 1 000

Amérique du Nord utp 310 315 330 350

Amérique du Sud utp 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Asie utp 800 900 1 000 1 000

Autres pays clés utp 0,00 300 800 900

Coûts totaux de personnel M€ -98,9 -105 -115 -124

Salaires M€ -98,9 -104 -114 -123

dont contributions sociales M€ -24,2 -24,7 -25,2 -25,7

Paiement en titres M€

Coûts relatfs aux retraites M€ -0,86 -0,86 -0,86

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Total sales M€ 626 822 649 708

Protective Films M€ 278 270 285 302

Fashion Technologies (ex Interlining) M€ 211 (1) 132 146 163

Museum Solutions (ex Technical Substrates) M€ 37,3 51,6 59,9 65,8

Luxury Materials (ex Wool) M€ 100 64,6 70,4 81,3

Healthcare Solutions M€ 304 88,0 95,0

Other M€ 0,00 (2) 0,00 (2) 0,00

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Underlying operat. profit Analysis

Protective Films M€ 23,6 17,6 22,5 26,6

Fashion Technologies (ex Interlining) M€ 17,5 5,67 9,03 13,4

Museum Solutions (ex Technical Substrates) M€ 2,80 2,12 4,31 5,53

Luxury Materials (ex Wool) M€ 2,70 -2,00 0,50 1,40

Healthcare Solutions M€ 58,0 10,6 10,8

Other/cancellations M€ -5,20 -5,50 (3) -5,50 (3) -5,50

Total M€ 41,4 75,9 41,4 52,3

Underlying operat. profit margin % 6,61 9,23 6,38 7,38

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Europe % 43,8 43,0

Of Which Italy % 11,6 12,0

Of Which Germany % 6,60 7,00

Of Which France % 6,50 7,00

Americas % 23,9 26,0

Of Which United States % 17,6 18,0

Asia % 32,3 31,0

Of Which China % 11,8 12,0

Other % 0,00 0,00

Personnel

Chiffre d'affaires par division 1. L'acquisition de PCC a augmenté d'environ 80m$ le chiffre d'affaires du groupe

2. Augmentation du chiffre d'affaires via les acquisitions. Estimation AV. Éventuellement avec la création d'un cinquième secteur d'activité

Résultat par division 3. Combine les coûts centraux d'environ 8m€ par an et la contribution au niveau de l'exploitation des cibles nouvellement acquises

Géographie du chiffre d'affaires


Chargeurs (Achat)


12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Rendement des capitaux investis % 7,79 12,3 5,95 7,20

CFROIC % -0,43 13,9 6,34 6,32

Survaleur M€ 136 206 213 219

Dépréciation cumulée des survaleurs M€ 16,0 16,0 16,0 17,0

Immobilisations incorporelles M€ 37,2 38,0 38,0 38,0

Dépréciation cumulée des immo. incoporelles M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Couvertures à LT M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

R&D mmobilisée M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Droits d’utilisation / Valeur actuelle des engagements de leasing M€ 25,8 30,0 35,0 40,0

Autres actifs immobilisés M€ 87,3 110 134 157

Amortissements cumulés M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

BFR M€ 48,5 31,8 25,8 22,8

Autres actifs M€ 12,6 20,0 25,0 30,0

Pertes/(gains) actuariels non reconnus M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Capitaux employés après amortissement (Capitaux investis) M€ 347 436 470 506

Capitaux employés avant amortissement M€ 363 452 486 523

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Protective Films M€

Fashion Technologies (ex Interlining) M€

Museum Solutions (ex Technical Substrates) M€

Luxury Materials (ex Wool) M€

Healthcare Solutions M€

Other M€ 347 436 470 506

Total capital employed M€ 347 436 470 506

ROCE

Capitaux employés par division


Chargeurs (Achat)


12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Ratio des engagements retraite % 7,31 4,98 4,53 4,15

Fonds propres part groupe M€ 232 309 347 387

Valeur actualisée des engagements M€ 18,3 16,2 16,5 16,8

dont engagements financés M€ 1,70 2,96 2,82 2,69

dont engagements non financés M€ 16,2 12,8 13,2 13,6

dont autres engagements (santé) M€ 0,40 0,41 0,42 0,42

Ecarts actuariels non comptabilisés au bilan M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Taux d'actualisation Groupe % 1,50 2,34 2,34 2,34

Taux d'actualisation normalisé recalculé % 2,00

Taux de croissance futur des salaires Groupe % 2,00 2,00 2,00 2,00

Taux de croissance normalisé des salaires recalculé % 2,00

Taux de rentabilité attendu des actifs Groupe % 3,50 3,50 3,50 3,50

Taux de rentabilité attendu des actifs recalculé % 2,82

Financées: impact du changement des hypothèses actuarielles M€ 1,29

Non financés: impact du changement des hypothèses actuarielles M€ 1,06

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Exposition US % 33,0 33,0 33,0 33,0

Exposition GB %

Exposition Euro % 67,0 67,0 67,0 67,0

Exposition Pays Nordiques %

Exposition Suisse %

Autre exposition %

Total % 100 100 100 100

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Couverture des obligations financées (déficit) M€ -3,20 -4,23 -4,03 -3,84

Couverture des obligations non financées (déficit) M€ -15,1 -16,7 -17,3 -17,9

Total comptabilisé M€ -18,3 -21,0 -21,3 -21,8

Pertes/(gains) actuariels non reconnus M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Provisions (au bilan) sur obligations financées M€ 1,70 2,96 2,82 2,69

Provisions (au bilan) sur obligations non financées M€ 16,2 12,8 13,2 13,6

Autres provisions de retraite (santé) M€ 0,40 0,41 0,42 0,42

Total des provisions de retraite compatbilisées au bilan M€ 18,3 16,2 16,5 16,8

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Charges relatives aux engagements financés M€ -0,20 0,06 0,02 0,00

Charges relatives aux engagements non financés M€ -0,90 -1,05 -1,08 -1,09

Total des charges relatives aux engaments M€ -1,10 -0,99 -1,06 -1,09

dont celles inclues dans les frais généraux M€ -0,80 -0,86 -0,86 -0,86

dont celles inclues dans les frais financiers M€ -0,30 -0,14 -0,21 -0,24

Pension Risks

Synthèse des risques liés aux engagements de retraites

Répartition géo. des engagements de retraites

Impacts sur le bilan

Impacts sur le compte de résultat


Chargeurs (Achat)


12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Engagements de retraite début de période M€ 17,4 18,4 18,2 16,6

Coût des services rendus M€ 0,10 0,11 0,11 0,11

Coût des intérêts M€ 0,70 0,37 0,36 0,33

Contributions des employés M€

Impact du changement des hypothèses actuarielles M€ 1,40 1,29 0,00 0,00

dont impact du changement du taux d'actualisation M€ 1,29

dont impact du changement du taux de croissance des salaires M€ 0,00

Changements du périmêtre de consolidation M€

Effets de change M€ 0,20 0,00 0,00 0,00

Prestation versées aux bénéficiaires M€ -1,40 -2,00 -2,00 -2,00

Autres M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Engagements de retraite fin de période M€ 18,4 18,2 16,6 15,1

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Actifs début de période M€ 13,8 15,2 13,9 12,6

Produits attendus sur les actifs des régimes de retraite M€ 0,60 0,53 0,49 0,44

Gains / (pertes) actuariels M€ 1,70 -0,10 -0,09 -0,09

Cotisations du Groupe M€ 0,30 0,30 0,28 0,27

Contributions des employés M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Changements du périmêtre de consolidation M€



Autres M€

Actifs fin de période M€ 15,2 13,9 12,6 11,2

Taux de rentabilité attendu des actifs (réalisé et estimé) M€ 2,30 0,43 0,39 0,36

12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E

Engagements de retraite début de période M€ 13,8 15,1 16,7 17,3

Coût des services rendus M€ 0,70 0,75 0,75 0,75

Coüt des intérêts M€ 0,20 0,30 0,33 0,35

Contributions des employés M€

Impact du changement des hypothèses actuarielles M€ 1,00 1,06 0,00 0,00

dont impact du changement du taux d'actualisation M€ 1,06

dont impact du changement du taux de croissance des salaires M€ 0,00

Changements du périmêtre de consolidation M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00



Autres M€ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Engagements de retraite fin de période M€ 15,1 16,7 17,3 17,9

Engagements financés

Valeur des actifs de fi. des engagements de retraites

Valeur actuelle des engagements de retraites non financés


Chargeurs (Achat)


Opinion fondamentale

S’il est implicite que les recommandations formulées par AlphaValue sont de bonne foi, elles ne devraient jamais constituer l'unique fondement d'une décision d'investissement.

Les recommandations sont construites dans une approche de “père de famille”.

Les valorisations sont calculées du point de vue d’un actionnaire minoritaire, à moyen terme (6 mois).

Les outils de valorisation sont présentés de façon transparente, toutes les valeurs sous-jacentes sont accessibles, et cohérente, la méthodologie est la même quelque soit le titre, en tenant compte cependant des différences de nature entre valeurs financières et non financières. Une action avec un objectif de cours en-dessous de son cours actuel ne sera jamais associée à un Accumuler ou un Achat.

Les recommandations se basent sur des objectifs de cours sans prendre en compte le rendement du dividende. Les seuils pour les quatre niveaux de recommandations peuvent changer de temps à autres selon les conditions de marché. Les seuils sont définis comme indiqué ci-dessous, SI L’ON SUPPOSE que les taux longs sans risque demeurent entre 2 et 5%.

RecommandationVolatilité Faible

10 < VIX index < 30 Volatilité Normale

15 < VIX index < 35Volatilité Elevée35 < VIX index

Achat Plus de 15 % de potentiel Plus de 20 % de potentiel Plus de 30 % de potentiel

Accumuler De 5 % à 15 % De 5 % à 20 % De 10 % à 30 %

Alléger De -10 % à 5 % De -10 % à 5 % De -10 % à 10 %

Vente Moins de -10 % Moins de -10 % Moins de -10 %

L’absence de recommandation « neutre » est délibérée. Investir dans les actions est sans intérêt si le retour attendu n’est pas au moins au niveau des taux sans risque (avant prise en compte du dividende).

Bien que les recommandations soient déterminées par les objectifs de cours, la direction d'AlphaValue entend maintenir une cohérence globale sur son univers de couverture et est susceptible, de temps à autre, de changer certains paramètres globaux, ce qui pourrait affecter le niveau de définitions des recommandations et/ou la distribution des recommandations dans les quatre champs ci-dessus. Par exemple, baisser la prime de risque dans un contexte de prudence excessive pourrait augmenter la proportion de recommandations positives.


Chargeurs (Achat)


Valorisation

Les méthodes de valorisation ont été élaborées dans un soucis de cohérence et de transparence.

Les sociétés sont reparties en 3 catégories selon leur activité principale: Banques, Assurances et Non Financières.

L'appartenance à une de ces 3 catégories détermine la méthode de construction du cours objectif.Le cours objectif résulte d'une pondération de plusieurs critères de valorisation, qui peuvent être changés en cas de besoin. Toutes les sociétés d'une même catégorie sont valorisées de la même manière et donc de façon cohérente entre elles.

Au sein de l'univers des sociétés Non Financières, 4 sous-catégories permettent de prendre en compte les spécificités inhérentes au secteur d'activité: 1) "Industrielles standard"; 2) "Holdings" pour lesquellles la mesure de l'actif net réévalué est prépondérant; 3) "Valeurs de croissance" pour lesquelles l'accent est mis sur la valorisation par analogies avec des valeurs comparables; 4) "Sociétés en perte" pour lesquelles justement la valorisation par les comparables ne fonctionne pas. La valorisation est alors assise principalement sur la méthode du DCF (Discounted Cash Flow ou actualisation des flux de trésorerie futurs) et la mesure de l'Actif net réévalué. Ces deux dernières méthodes reviennent à « redonner du long terme » à la société sous revue.

Méthodede valorisation

Industriellesstandard

Valeursde croissance

Holdingcompany

Sociétésen pertes

Banques Assurances

DCF 35% 35% 10% 40% 0% 0%

Actif net réévalué 20% 20% 55% 40% 25% 15%

PER 10% 10% 10% 5% 10% 20%

VE/EBITDA 20% 20% 0% 5% 0% 0%

Rendement 10% 10% 20% 5% 15% 15%

Actif net comptable 5% 5% 5% 5% 15% 10%

Valeur intrinsèque (banques) 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0%

Embedded Value 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40%

Capi./Résultat d’exploitation brut 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0%


Chargeurs (Achat)


Documents

Chargeurs - AlphaValuecorporate.alphavalue.fr/.../Chargeurs.pdfChargeurs Les objectifs du groupe portent désormais sur la croissance organique POUR CONTRE Chiffres Clés 12/18A 12/19A