LA GESTION DES MIGRATIONS DES

TRAVAILLEURS QUALIFIÉS: ENJEUX,

ÉVIDENCES, POLITIQUES

Attirer les talents étrangers en France et dans l’Union européenne Paris, vendredi 18 octobre 2013

Jonathan Chaloff Division des Migrations Internationales

1) Skilled labour migration in context

2) Migration management: approaches and choices

3) Instruments: challenges to traditional thinking

4) Policy mechanisms: – the obvious

– New practices

– Where is the “Red Carpet”?

5) The limits of migration policy

Outline

Labour migration is a small part of total

migration flows in OECD countries

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

Family Free movements Work Humanitarian Accompanyingfamily of workers

Other

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Permanent immigration in OECD countries by category of entry or of status change, standardised statistics, 2007-2011

Permanent immigration into selected OECD countries, share by category of entry or of status change, 2011

For some countries, however, labour

migration is a large share of entries

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Work Accompanying family of workers Family Humanitarian Other Free movement

• Skilled labour migrants are mostly Indian and Chinese

5

Those who come under skilled

programmes are largely from Asia

Source: OECD (2012), “The Changing Role of Asia in International Migration”, International Migration Outlook, OECD Publishing, Paris, except Germany (2011) and Denmark and Norway, pooled 2011-2012. DNK Asia includes only Bangladesh and Pakistan. NLD: Asia is Japan only (HQ) and Indonesia only (OY, 2009-2010). Sweden is based on ISCO classification 1-2. Norway is geographical Asia, other countries exclude Southwest and Central Asia.

Share of skilled migrants in selected OECD countries, by permit programme, 2010-12, by nationality

0

50

100

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DEU NOR GBR IRL DNK SWE NLD BEL USA CAN AUS NZL

China India Other Asia

• What is labour migration policy supposed to do? – Labour market needs (“to meet labour needs not

being satisfied in the domestic labour market, without adverse impacts on domestic workers”)

– Other objectives

• Universal enthusiasm (almost) about the “highly talented”, because of perception of positive impact and benefits of high-skilled migration

Approaches: setting objectives

Simple objective, many choices involved

Element Options, parameters

Gatekeepers Police/public security, public employment services,

social partners, experts, etc.

Criteria for admission Supply/Demand, minimum standards, labour market

test (LMT), shortage occupations, quotas/caps

Location of matching Recruitment, job-search visas, training periods,

intermediaries

Labour market access Occupational mobility, geographic mobility, duration

of restrictions

Prospects Renewal, extension, permanent residence,

naturalisation

Welfare access Limits on access to social benefits, public goods

Auxiliary rights Family reunification and labour/welfare access for

family members.

In addition, there is a question of degrees of transparency and responsibility, accessibility and costs

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)

• Post-secondary, tertiary, etc.

– USA: multiple levels in the EB Green Card system (skilled, very skilled, very very skilled)

• What about shortages?

• Definitions of “skilled” changes according to the labour market context

– Australia: SOL changes in 2008

What is a “talent”

Percentage of companies reporting shortages, by firm size and skill level, 2011

Source: OECD/DIHK Employer Survey (2011)

Germany: labour shortages are not only for

high-skill workers

SMEs expect skills shortages to increase in the future in both the higher and

middle skill areas

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Low skill level Medium skill level High skill level

Small companies Medium-sized companies Large companies

• “Instant permanent residence”, earned permanent residence, and imposed temporariness – Instant permanent residence a rarity in Europe…

– … and in practice, rare in settlement countries.

– temporary programmes with no extension not only for low-skilled, but also some intra-corporate transfers, research fellows, etc.

• Does it make a difference? Permanent migrants leave, temporary migrants stay, at roughly the same rate

First question: Temporary vs.

Permanent?

• Canada loses more than 30% of its permanent labour migrants quickly, and another 10% by year seven.

Skilled labour migrants with permanent status

are more likely to leave than other categories

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(2

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Probability of remaining in Canada by visa class and duration (years)

• Who picks the migrant to admit? The state (supply) or the employer (demand)?

Second question: Supply vs. Demand:

admitting the job vs. admitting the person

Admission criteria: Demand

Demand + LMT (- list) - contractual criteria

LMT (labour market test) Who does it and how? On-line automatic (USA), mandatory advertising period, individual review, committee examination, etc. Real or pro forma? Does it lead to local hires? Or is it an irritating “speed-bump”? Does it filter out marginal requests? Transparency: US lists published

Shortage occupation list How to decide on “shortages” (and how often): Who decides: social

partners, outside experts, PES, lobbies, etc. According to what parameters (vacancy, employment, wage, etc.) What link with occupational forecasts?

What role (admission or exemption from LMT)

Job characteristics Skill level, salary, conditions (and subsequent enforcement issues), match with qualifications

Language (what level)

Who is responsible for a worker after arrival?

• Demand-side: special permits offering exceptional conditions for workers and their family members

– EU Blue Card

– Japan: high-salary, patent-holding, high-level, etc. allowed to bring domestic workers

– Korea: accelerated permanent residence

• Points-based systems or other criteria to select qualified job-seekers

– NZL: “Silver Fern”

• Facilitations for graduating university students

Well-known policy mechanisms

implemented to “attract talent”

Talent-oriented supply-driven systems

Occupation Experience

Shortage lists

Prior wage how to evaluate home-country salaries

Age

Language How to evaluate language skills? At what level?

Spousal characteristics / family

Other Discretionary elements

Most common system is the points-based system

Education/training Determining the value of education acquired abroad

• in some, but not all, countries this is largely related to non-labour migrants

• overqualification rates for immigrants increased from 2003/04 to 2009/10

Picking winners? High-educated immigrants

don’t always end up in high-skilled jobs

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Difference in overqualification rates of highly-educated foreign-born employees relative to those of native-born highly-educated employees

Source: Settling In: OECD Indicators of Immigrant Integration 2012. aged 15 to 64 not in education, 2009-10

High educated foreign-born employees are more likely to be

overqualified for their jobs than high-educated native-born

Difference in the net direct fiscal contribution between working-age immigrant and native-born households, by education level of the household head, 2007-2009 average

High-educated immigrants pay into the system more

than they take, but not as much as high-educated

native-born workers

-12 000

-9 000

-6 000

-3 000

3 000

6 000

9 000

12 000

Italy

Icel

and

Fin

land

Gre

ece

Slo

veni

a

Sw

eden

Ger

man

y

Irel

and

Den

mar

k

Aus

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Bel

gium

Por

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Est

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OE

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Pol

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Sw

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High-educated

Low-educated

Source: OECD (2013), “The fiscal impact of immigration in OECD countries”

• But most also insist that the job match their qualifications or be tertiary-level

Most countries let graduates stay and

look for work

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Minimum Maximum

None

fro

m 2

01

4

Duration of job-search periods for post-graduate schemes in OECD countries

Red indicates skilled occupational requirement for status change from job-seeker to worker

• “Two-step” migration – The Canadian Experience Class formalises the

temporary-to-permanent change

• “Expression of Interest” model – New Zealand, Canada, Australia: picking from a

pool of candidates

– Reduces backlogs, allows screening

• Sponsorship – Streamlining and controlling employers through

pre-certification

New policy practices for selection and

admission

Almost every OECD country claims to have an “active” policy to attract the desired categories, but what is active?

• Australia: subsidised trade fairs

• Chile: “Start-Up Chile”

• Québec: information and marketing, targeted promotion

• Israel: Public agency promoting immigration, subsidies for new arrivals

Where is the real “Red Carpet” for

talents ?

• Most OECD countries report low barriers to migration by the most skilled… but procedural requirements may represent more of a barrier than permit issuance criteria

• In a demand system, employers determine inflows. Conditions for spouses matter

• Public opinion, diversity, salaries/standards of living, weather, language, etc. may be more influential than admission policy

The limits of policy – open doors and

yet no one comes?

Half of those recruited are in occupations considered to be in shortage

Sweden: mostly not skilled workers

Note: Excludes seasonal workers (by occupation SS YK 921). Covers only occupations included on the Barometer (62% of occupations). Rankings are for the Spring 2010 or most recent Occupational Barometer. Where multiple rankings are provided for the same SS YK4 code, the main occupation is used. Source: Swedish Migration Board (SM B) permit database, 25 May 2011; Swedish Statistical Office (SCB) total employment by occupation, 2009; Swedish PES (Arbetsförmedlingen) Occupational Barometer.

Occupations of labour migrants, by cumulative entries 2009-11 relative to total employment 2009, according to surplus/shortage ranking on the Occupational Barometer

The size of the circle represents the number of entries

Distribution of skill levels by reason for migrating, recent non-EU migrants, Southern Europe and Northern and Western Europe, 2008.

In practice, employers hire migrants

who are already in the country.

• Don’t confuse the objective with the instruments

• “The devil is in the details”: the same instruments can have very different features, functions and effects… and migrants know this!

• Innovation is taking place… faster than evaluation

• Three paradoxes: – More high-skilled migrants, but more underqualification

– Focus on the highest skilled, but needs for middle-level skills

– Competition to open to recruitment of highly skilled foreigners, but employers recruit locally

Conclusion:

Thank you for your attention!

www.oecd.org/migration