-
LES PRVISIONSNotion de srie
chronologiqueQuest-ce?ExempleComposition
Types de sries chronologiques
Processus de prvisionModleQuest-ce quune prvision et que
prvoit-on exactementPrvisions et gestion des stocksNotion derreur
de prvision
Prvisions sur les donnes historiques
Intervalles de confiance
Classification des mthodes de prvisionTypologie
-
NOTION DE SRIE CHRONOLOGIQUE123456789 10
1060142611749168881283105612951268 ?PriodesDemande1 000 -2 000
-123456789 10Srie chronologique ou srie temporelle ousrie de
consommations
-
SRIE CHRONOLOGIQUEXt, t = 1, , T
-
QUEST-CE QUI ENGENDRE LES CONSOMMATIONSDes facteurs multiples,
dont certains sont inexplicables:composantes structurellesvariation
alatoires
Estimation des composantes structurelles:partie facile
Estimation des variations alatoires:partie difficile
-
LA STRUCTURE DE LA DEMANDE
-
TYPES DE SRIES CHRONOLOGIQUESSries stationnaires, semi
stationnaires et non stationnaires
Tendances additives et multiplicatives
Cycles saisonniers additifs et multiplicatifs
-
SRIES STATIONNAIRESLe niveau moyen des observations est
constant
Graph1
90
105
95
110
95
90
105
102.1
96.9
115
92.7
115
94.1
112.4
115
100
120
92.2
109.1
95
110
95
105
111
25
demande
LES
a=0.2
tXtPtetPt
190100.00-10.00200.00
210598.007.00178.00
39599.40-4.40163.40
411098.5211.48149.72
595100.82-5.82141.78
69099.65-9.65132.42
710597.727.28123.94
8102.199.182.92120.15
996.999.76-2.86116.54
1011599.1915.81112.61
1192.7102.35-9.65113.09
12115100.4214.58109.01
1394.1103.34-9.24110.21
14112.4101.4910.91106.99
15115103.6711.33108.07
16100105.94-5.94109.46
17120104.7515.25107.56
1892.2107.80-15.60110.05
19109.1104.684.42106.48
2095105.56-10.56107.01
21110103.456.55104.60
2295104.76-9.76105.68
23105102.812.19103.55
24111103.257.75103.84
25104.80105.27
LES
demande
LESA
b=0.2
tXtPtetabs(et)EtMtat
19095.00-5.005.00-5.005.000.40
210593.0012.0012.00-1.606.400.25
39596.00-1.001.00-1.485.320.28
411095.7214.2814.281.677.110.24
59599.08-4.084.080.526.500.08
69098.75-8.758.75-1.336.950.19
710597.077.937.930.527.150.07
812097.6522.3522.354.8910.190.48
9120108.3711.6311.636.2410.480.60
10115115.29-0.290.294.938.440.58
11125115.129.889.885.928.730.68
12115121.82-6.826.823.378.350.40
13115119.07-4.074.071.887.490.25
14125118.046.966.962.907.380.39
15115120.77-5.775.771.167.060.16
16120119.820.180.180.975.690.17
17120119.850.150.150.804.580.18
18105119.88-14.8814.88-2.336.640.35
1990114.65-24.6524.65-6.8010.240.66
209598.29-3.293.29-6.098.850.69
2111096.0213.9813.98-2.089.870.21
229598.97-3.973.97-2.468.690.28
2310597.857.157.15-0.548.390.06
249098.30-8.308.30-2.098.370.25
2596.23
LESA
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
demande
prvisions
priodes
demande et prvisions
LETS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
priodes
valeurs de at
LESAIS
a=0.5
g=0.5
b=0.5
tXtStbtItPt
13620.9526
23851.0132
34321.1368
4341380.00009.75000.8974
5382395.372212.56110.9594371.2882
6409405.810811.49991.0105413.3009
7498427.683116.68611.1506474.4164
8387437.815113.40900.8907398.7629
9473472.119123.85650.9806432.9066
10513501.820426.77891.0164501.1874
11582517.205121.08181.1380608.2211
12474535.240819.55870.8881479.4261
13544.0560
14583.7738
15675.8498
16544.8383
LESAIS
demande
priodes
demande
Srie non stationnaire
LETO2
a=0.5L=4
b=0.5X bar=380
tXtStItPt
13620.9526
23851.0132
34321.1368
4341380.00000.8974
5382390.49720.9654362.0000
6409397.09281.0216395.6354
7445394.26401.1328451.4318
8335383.78890.8851353.8000
9360378.33870.9585370.5235
10375372.71001.0139386.5002
11440380.57031.1445422.1924
12355390.82240.8967336.8512
13374.5963
14396.2385
15447.2813
16350.4628
LETO2
demande
prvisions
priodes
demande
LETO1
a=0.3
XtS'tS''tStbtPt
110911091109110910
21006106610831048-8
31105107710821073-21040
41034106410761052-51071
51095107410761072-11047
6108110761076107601071
7113610941081110751076
8111611001087111461112
9110911031092111451120
101199113211041160121119
111209115511191191151172
121232117811371219181206
131191118211501214141237
141239119911651233151227
151235121011781241131248
161330124611991293201255
171342127512211328231313
181332129212431341211351
191374131712651368221362
201402134212881396231390
211504139113191463311420
221502142413501498321493
231588147313871559371529
241607151314251602381596
251640
261677
271715
LETO1
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
observations
S't
S''t
prvisions
priodes
demande
MMP
a=0.3
g=0.4
tXtStbtPt
110911091.0010.00
211011101.0010.001101.00
311051109.209.281111.00
410341093.14-0.861118.48
510951093.09-0.531092.28
610811089.09-1.921092.56
711361101.823.941087.18
811161108.835.171105.76
911091112.504.571114.00
1011991141.6514.401117.07
1112091171.9320.751156.05
1212321204.4825.471192.69
1311911218.2720.801229.95
1412391239.0420.791239.06
1512351252.3817.811259.83
1613301288.1424.991270.19
1713421321.7828.451313.12
1813321344.7726.261350.24
1913741371.9226.621371.03
2014021399.5827.031398.54
2115041449.8336.321426.61
2215021490.9138.221486.15
2315881546.7945.291529.13
2416071596.5547.081592.08
251643.63
261690.71
271737.79
MMP
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Erreurs
w1=0.5w1=0.1
w2=0.3w2=0.2
w3=0.2w3=0.3
w4=0.4
tXtPtPt
190
2105
395
411097.00
595104.5097.50
69099.50102.00
710595.5099.00
812098.50101.00
9120109.5098.00
10115117.00103.50
11125117.50113.50
12115121.00119.50
13115118.00119.00
14125117.00118.00
15115120.00120.00
16120118.00117.00
17120119.50118.50
18105119.00120.50
1990112.50116.50
2095100.50114.00
2111095.50107.00
2295101.5099.00
2310599.5096.00
2490103.00100.50
2595.50102.50
Erreurs
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Feuil1
a=0.1
tXtPtetabs(et)
110911050.00
210061054.1048.1048.1
311051049.29-55.7155.71
410341054.8620.8620.86
510951052.77-42.2342.23
610811057.00-24.0024.00
711361059.40-76.6076.60
811161067.06-48.9448.94
911091071.95-37.0537.05
1011991075.66-123.34123.34
1112091087.99-121.01121.01
1212321100.09-131.91131.91
1311911113.28-77.7277.72
1412391121.05-117.95117.95
1512351132.85-102.15102.15
1613301143.06-186.94186.94
1713421161.76-180.24180.24
1813321179.78-152.22152.22
1913741195.00-179.00179.00
2014021212.90-189.10189.10
2115041231.81-272.19272.19
2215021259.03-242.97242.97
2315881283.33-304.67304.67
2416071313.80-293.20293.20
2516901343.12-346.88346.88
2617621377.80-384.20384.20
2717571416.22-340.78340.78
2818391450.30-388.70388.70
2918481489.17-358.83358.83
3019041525.05-378.95378.95
3119751562.95-412.05412.05
3220611604.15-456.85456.85
3321531649.84-503.16503.16
3422131700.15-512.85512.85
3522381751.44-486.56486.56
3623661800.10-565.90565.90
371856.69
-229.31233.25
EMEMA
Feuil1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
MM
moisdemande
Aug-971115
sept.-971125
oct.-971115
nov.-971120
dc.-971120
jan.-981105
fv.-981090
Mar-981095
Apr-981110
May-981095
Jun-981105
juil.-981090
MM
demande
mois
demande
Demande mensuelle
MM3MM5MM7
tXtPtPtPt
190
2105
395
411096.67
595103.33
690100.0099.00
710598.3399.00
812096.6799.0098.57
9120105.00104.00102.86
10115115.00106.00105.00
11125118.33110.00107.86
12115120.00117.00110.00
13115118.33119.00112.86
14125118.33118.00116.43
15115118.33119.00119.29
16120118.33119.00118.57
17120120.00118.00118.57
18105118.33119.00119.29
1990115.00117.00116.43
2095105.00110.00112.86
2111096.67106.00110.00
229598.33104.00107.86
23105100.0099.00105.00
2490103.3399.00102.86
2596.6799.0098.57
moy.=107.08
-
SRIES SEMI STATIONNAIRESLe niveau moyen des observations varie
peu et lentement
Graph2
90
105
95
105.2
95
90
105
102.1
111.3
115
105.7
115
107.1
112.4
107.1
100
98.7
92.2
104
95
95.4
95
105
93
25
demande
LES
a=0.2
tXtPtetPt
190100.00-10.00200.00
210598.007.00178.00
39599.40-4.40163.40
4105.298.526.68149.72
59599.86-4.86140.82
69098.88-8.88131.65
710597.117.89123.32
8102.198.693.41119.66
9111.399.3711.93116.15
10115101.7613.24115.18
11105.7104.401.30115.14
12115104.6610.34113.25
13107.1106.730.37113.60
14112.4106.805.60112.30
15107.1107.92-0.82112.32
16100107.76-7.76111.28
1798.7106.21-7.51109.02
1892.2104.71-12.51106.96
19104102.201.80104.01
2095102.56-7.56104.00
2195.4101.05-5.65102.20
229599.92-4.92100.84
2310598.946.0699.67
2493100.15-7.15100.74
2598.7299.19
LES
demande
LESA
b=0.2
tXtPtetabs(et)EtMtat
19095.00-5.005.00-5.005.000.40
210593.0012.0012.00-1.606.400.25
39596.00-1.001.00-1.485.320.28
411095.7214.2814.281.677.110.24
59599.08-4.084.080.526.500.08
69098.75-8.758.75-1.336.950.19
710597.077.937.930.527.150.07
812097.6522.3522.354.8910.190.48
9120108.3711.6311.636.2410.480.60
10115115.29-0.290.294.938.440.58
11125115.129.889.885.928.730.68
12115121.82-6.826.823.378.350.40
13115119.07-4.074.071.887.490.25
14125118.046.966.962.907.380.39
15115120.77-5.775.771.167.060.16
16120119.820.180.180.975.690.17
17120119.850.150.150.804.580.18
18105119.88-14.8814.88-2.336.640.35
1990114.65-24.6524.65-6.8010.240.66
209598.29-3.293.29-6.098.850.69
2111096.0213.9813.98-2.089.870.21
229598.97-3.973.97-2.468.690.28
2310597.857.157.15-0.548.390.06
249098.30-8.308.30-2.098.370.25
2596.23
LESA
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
demande
prvisions
priodes
demande et prvisions
LETS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
priodes
valeurs de at
LESAIS
a=0.5
g=0.5
b=0.5
tXtStbtItPt
13620.9526
23851.0132
34321.1368
4341380.00009.75000.8974
5382395.372212.56110.9594371.2882
6409405.810811.49991.0105413.3009
7498427.683116.68611.1506474.4164
8387437.815113.40900.8907398.7629
9473472.119123.85650.9806432.9066
10513501.820426.77891.0164501.1874
11582517.205121.08181.1380608.2211
12474535.240819.55870.8881479.4261
13544.0560
14583.7738
15675.8498
16544.8383
LESAIS
demande
priodes
demande
Srie non stationnaire
LETO2
a=0.5L=4
b=0.5X bar=380
tXtStItPt
13620.9526
23851.0132
34321.1368
4341380.00000.8974
5382390.49720.9654362.0000
6409397.09281.0216395.6354
7445394.26401.1328451.4318
8335383.78890.8851353.8000
9360378.33870.9585370.5235
10375372.71001.0139386.5002
11440380.57031.1445422.1924
12355390.82240.8967336.8512
13374.5963
14396.2385
15447.2813
16350.4628
LETO2
demande
prvisions
priodes
demande
LETO1
a=0.3
XtS'tS''tStbtPt
110911091109110910
21006106610831048-8
31105107710821073-21040
41034106410761052-51071
51095107410761072-11047
6108110761076107601071
7113610941081110751076
8111611001087111461112
9110911031092111451120
101199113211041160121119
111209115511191191151172
121232117811371219181206
131191118211501214141237
141239119911651233151227
151235121011781241131248
161330124611991293201255
171342127512211328231313
181332129212431341211351
191374131712651368221362
201402134212881396231390
211504139113191463311420
221502142413501498321493
231588147313871559371529
241607151314251602381596
251640
261677
271715
LETO1
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
observations
S't
S''t
prvisions
priodes
demande
MMP
a=0.3
g=0.4
tXtStbtPt
110911091.0010.00
211011101.0010.001101.00
311051109.209.281111.00
410341093.14-0.861118.48
510951093.09-0.531092.28
610811089.09-1.921092.56
711361101.823.941087.18
811161108.835.171105.76
911091112.504.571114.00
1011991141.6514.401117.07
1112091171.9320.751156.05
1212321204.4825.471192.69
1311911218.2720.801229.95
1412391239.0420.791239.06
1512351252.3817.811259.83
1613301288.1424.991270.19
1713421321.7828.451313.12
1813321344.7726.261350.24
1913741371.9226.621371.03
2014021399.5827.031398.54
2115041449.8336.321426.61
2215021490.9138.221486.15
2315881546.7945.291529.13
2416071596.5547.081592.08
251643.63
261690.71
271737.79
MMP
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Erreurs
w1=0.5w1=0.1
w2=0.3w2=0.2
w3=0.2w3=0.3
w4=0.4
tXtPtPt
190
2105
395
411097.00
595104.5097.50
69099.50102.00
710595.5099.00
812098.50101.00
9120109.5098.00
10115117.00103.50
11125117.50113.50
12115121.00119.50
13115118.00119.00
14125117.00118.00
15115120.00120.00
16120118.00117.00
17120119.50118.50
18105119.00120.50
1990112.50116.50
2095100.50114.00
2111095.50107.00
2295101.5099.00
2310599.5096.00
2490103.00100.50
2595.50102.50
Erreurs
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Feuil1
a=0.1
tXtPtetabs(et)
110911050.00
210061054.1048.1048.1
311051049.29-55.7155.71
410341054.8620.8620.86
510951052.77-42.2342.23
610811057.00-24.0024.00
711361059.40-76.6076.60
811161067.06-48.9448.94
911091071.95-37.0537.05
1011991075.66-123.34123.34
1112091087.99-121.01121.01
1212321100.09-131.91131.91
1311911113.28-77.7277.72
1412391121.05-117.95117.95
1512351132.85-102.15102.15
1613301143.06-186.94186.94
1713421161.76-180.24180.24
1813321179.78-152.22152.22
1913741195.00-179.00179.00
2014021212.90-189.10189.10
2115041231.81-272.19272.19
2215021259.03-242.97242.97
2315881283.33-304.67304.67
2416071313.80-293.20293.20
2516901343.12-346.88346.88
2617621377.80-384.20384.20
2717571416.22-340.78340.78
2818391450.30-388.70388.70
2918481489.17-358.83358.83
3019041525.05-378.95378.95
3119751562.95-412.05412.05
3220611604.15-456.85456.85
3321531649.84-503.16503.16
3422131700.15-512.85512.85
3522381751.44-486.56486.56
3623661800.10-565.90565.90
371856.69
-229.31233.25
EMEMA
Feuil1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
MM
moisdemande
Aug-971115
sept.-971125
oct.-971115
nov.-971120
dc.-971120
jan.-981105
fv.-981090
Mar-981095
Apr-981110
May-981095
Jun-981105
juil.-981090
MM
demande
mois
demande
Demande mensuelle
MM3MM5MM7
tXtPtPtPt
190
2105
395
411096.67
595103.33
690100.0099.00
710598.3399.00
812096.6799.0098.57
9120105.00104.00102.86
10115115.00106.00105.00
11125118.33110.00107.86
12115120.00117.00110.00
13115118.33119.00112.86
14125118.33118.00116.43
15115118.33119.00119.29
16120118.33119.00118.57
17120120.00118.00118.57
18105118.33119.00119.29
1990115.00117.00116.43
2095105.00110.00112.86
2111096.67106.00110.00
229598.33104.00107.86
23105100.0099.00105.00
2490103.3399.00102.86
2596.6799.0098.57
moy.=107.08
-
SRIES NON STATIONNAIRESLe niveau moyen des observations nest pas
constant
Graph3
362
385
432
341
382
409
498
387
473
513
582
474
13
14
15
16
demande
LES
a=0.2
tXtPtetPt
190100.00-10.00200.00
210598.007.00178.00
39599.40-4.40163.40
4105.298.526.68149.72
59599.86-4.86140.82
69098.88-8.88131.65
710597.117.89123.32
8102.198.693.41119.66
9111.399.3711.93116.15
10115101.7613.24115.18
11105.7104.401.30115.14
12115104.6610.34113.25
13107.1106.730.37113.60
14112.4106.805.60112.30
15107.1107.92-0.82112.32
16100107.76-7.76111.28
1798.7106.21-7.51109.02
1892.2104.71-12.51106.96
19104102.201.80104.01
2095102.56-7.56104.00
2195.4101.05-5.65102.20
229599.92-4.92100.84
2310598.946.0699.67
2493100.15-7.15100.74
2598.7299.19
LES
demande
LESA
b=0.2
tXtPtetabs(et)EtMtat
19095.00-5.005.00-5.005.000.40
210593.0012.0012.00-1.606.400.25
39596.00-1.001.00-1.485.320.28
411095.7214.2814.281.677.110.24
59599.08-4.084.080.526.500.08
69098.75-8.758.75-1.336.950.19
710597.077.937.930.527.150.07
812097.6522.3522.354.8910.190.48
9120108.3711.6311.636.2410.480.60
10115115.29-0.290.294.938.440.58
11125115.129.889.885.928.730.68
12115121.82-6.826.823.378.350.40
13115119.07-4.074.071.887.490.25
14125118.046.966.962.907.380.39
15115120.77-5.775.771.167.060.16
16120119.820.180.180.975.690.17
17120119.850.150.150.804.580.18
18105119.88-14.8814.88-2.336.640.35
1990114.65-24.6524.65-6.8010.240.66
209598.29-3.293.29-6.098.850.69
2111096.0213.9813.98-2.089.870.21
229598.97-3.973.97-2.468.690.28
2310597.857.157.15-0.548.390.06
249098.30-8.308.30-2.098.370.25
2596.23
LESA
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
demande
prvisions
priodes
demande et prvisions
LETS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
priodes
valeurs de at
LESAIS
a=0.5
g=0.5
b=0.5
tXtStbtItPt
13620.9526
23851.0132
34321.1368
4341380.00009.75000.8974
5382395.372212.56110.9594371.2882
6409405.810811.49991.0105413.3009
7498427.683116.68611.1506474.4164
8387437.815113.40900.8907398.7629
9473472.119123.85650.9806432.9066
10513501.820426.77891.0164501.1874
11582517.205121.08181.1380608.2211
12474535.240819.55870.8881479.4261
13544.0560
14583.7738
15675.8498
16544.8383
LESAIS
demande
LETO2
a=0.5L=4
b=0.5X bar=380
tXtStItPt
13620.9526
23851.0132
34321.1368
4341380.00000.8974
5382390.49720.9654362.0000
6409397.09281.0216395.6354
7445394.26401.1328451.4318
8335383.78890.8851353.8000
9360378.33870.9585370.5235
10375372.71001.0139386.5002
11440380.57031.1445422.1924
12355390.82240.8967336.8512
13374.5963
14396.2385
15447.2813
16350.4628
LETO2
demande
prvisions
priodes
demande
LETO1
a=0.3
XtS'tS''tStbtPt
110911091109110910
21006106610831048-8
31105107710821073-21040
41034106410761052-51071
51095107410761072-11047
6108110761076107601071
7113610941081110751076
8111611001087111461112
9110911031092111451120
101199113211041160121119
111209115511191191151172
121232117811371219181206
131191118211501214141237
141239119911651233151227
151235121011781241131248
161330124611991293201255
171342127512211328231313
181332129212431341211351
191374131712651368221362
201402134212881396231390
211504139113191463311420
221502142413501498321493
231588147313871559371529
241607151314251602381596
251640
261677
271715
LETO1
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
observations
S't
S''t
prvisions
priodes
demande
MMP
a=0.3
g=0.4
tXtStbtPt
110911091.0010.00
211011101.0010.001101.00
311051109.209.281111.00
410341093.14-0.861118.48
510951093.09-0.531092.28
610811089.09-1.921092.56
711361101.823.941087.18
811161108.835.171105.76
911091112.504.571114.00
1011991141.6514.401117.07
1112091171.9320.751156.05
1212321204.4825.471192.69
1311911218.2720.801229.95
1412391239.0420.791239.06
1512351252.3817.811259.83
1613301288.1424.991270.19
1713421321.7828.451313.12
1813321344.7726.261350.24
1913741371.9226.621371.03
2014021399.5827.031398.54
2115041449.8336.321426.61
2215021490.9138.221486.15
2315881546.7945.291529.13
2416071596.5547.081592.08
251643.63
261690.71
271737.79
MMP
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Erreurs
w1=0.5w1=0.1
w2=0.3w2=0.2
w3=0.2w3=0.3
w4=0.4
tXtPtPt
190
2105
395
411097.00
595104.5097.50
69099.50102.00
710595.5099.00
812098.50101.00
9120109.5098.00
10115117.00103.50
11125117.50113.50
12115121.00119.50
13115118.00119.00
14125117.00118.00
15115120.00120.00
16120118.00117.00
17120119.50118.50
18105119.00120.50
1990112.50116.50
2095100.50114.00
2111095.50107.00
2295101.5099.00
2310599.5096.00
2490103.00100.50
2595.50102.50
Erreurs
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Feuil1
a=0.1
tXtPtetabs(et)
110911050.00
210061054.1048.1048.1
311051049.29-55.7155.71
410341054.8620.8620.86
510951052.77-42.2342.23
610811057.00-24.0024.00
711361059.40-76.6076.60
811161067.06-48.9448.94
911091071.95-37.0537.05
1011991075.66-123.34123.34
1112091087.99-121.01121.01
1212321100.09-131.91131.91
1311911113.28-77.7277.72
1412391121.05-117.95117.95
1512351132.85-102.15102.15
1613301143.06-186.94186.94
1713421161.76-180.24180.24
1813321179.78-152.22152.22
1913741195.00-179.00179.00
2014021212.90-189.10189.10
2115041231.81-272.19272.19
2215021259.03-242.97242.97
2315881283.33-304.67304.67
2416071313.80-293.20293.20
2516901343.12-346.88346.88
2617621377.80-384.20384.20
2717571416.22-340.78340.78
2818391450.30-388.70388.70
2918481489.17-358.83358.83
3019041525.05-378.95378.95
3119751562.95-412.05412.05
3220611604.15-456.85456.85
3321531649.84-503.16503.16
3422131700.15-512.85512.85
3522381751.44-486.56486.56
3623661800.10-565.90565.90
371856.69
-229.31233.25
EMEMA
Feuil1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
MM
moisdemande
Aug-971115
sept.-971125
oct.-971115
nov.-971120
dc.-971120
jan.-981105
fv.-981090
Mar-981095
Apr-981110
May-981095
Jun-981105
juil.-981090
MM
demande
mois
demande
Demande mensuelle
MM3MM5MM7
tXtPtPtPt
190
2105
395
411096.67
595103.33
690100.0099.00
710598.3399.00
812096.6799.0098.57
9120105.00104.00102.86
10115115.00106.00105.00
11125118.33110.00107.86
12115120.00117.00110.00
13115118.33119.00112.86
14125118.33118.00116.43
15115118.33119.00119.29
16120118.33119.00118.57
17120120.00118.00118.57
18105118.33119.00119.29
1990115.00117.00116.43
2095105.00110.00112.86
2111096.67106.00110.00
229598.33104.00107.86
23105100.0099.00105.00
2490103.3399.00102.86
2596.6799.0098.57
moy.=107.08
-
VARIATIONS ALATOIRES SEULEMENTLa position de chacune des
observations est uniquementdtermine par un processus stochastique
stationnaire
Graph4
90
105
95
110
95
90
105
110
103
105
112
98
93
101
115
111
104
105
90
95
110
95
105
90
priode
demande
LES
a=0.1
tXtPtet
190100.00-10.00
210599.006.00
39599.60-4.60
411099.1410.86
595100.23-5.23
69099.70-9.70
710598.736.27
812099.3620.64
9120101.4218.58
10115103.2811.72
11125104.4520.55
12115106.518.49
13115107.367.64
14125108.1216.88
15115109.815.19
16120110.339.67
17120111.308.70
18105112.17-7.17
1990111.45-21.45
2095109.30-14.30
21110107.872.13
2295108.09-13.09
23105106.78-1.78
2490106.60-16.60
25104.94
LES
LESA
b=0.2
tXtPtetabs(et)EtMtat
19095.00-5.005.00-5.005.000.40
210593.0012.0012.00-1.606.400.25
39596.00-1.001.00-1.485.320.28
411095.7214.2814.281.677.110.24
59599.08-4.084.080.526.500.08
69098.75-8.758.75-1.336.950.19
710597.077.937.930.527.150.07
811097.6512.3512.352.898.190.35
9103102.001.001.002.516.750.37
10105102.372.632.632.535.930.43
11112103.498.518.513.736.440.58
1298108.41-10.4110.410.907.240.12
1393107.12-14.1214.12-2.118.610.24
14101103.67-2.672.67-2.227.420.30
15115102.8712.1312.130.658.370.08
16111103.827.187.181.968.130.24
17104105.55-1.551.551.266.810.18
18105105.26-0.260.260.955.500.17
1990105.22-15.2215.22-2.287.440.31
2095100.55-5.555.55-2.947.070.42
2111098.2511.7511.750.008.000.00
229598.25-3.253.25-0.657.050.09
2310597.957.057.050.897.050.13
249098.84-8.848.84-1.067.410.14
2597.58
LESA
LETS
priode
demande
LESAIS
a=0.5
g=0.5
b=0.5
tXtStbtItPt
13620.95
23851.01
34321.14
4341380.009.750.90
5382395.3712.560.96371.29
6409405.8111.501.01413.30
7498427.6816.691.15474.42
8387437.8213.410.89398.76
9473472.1223.860.98432.91
10513501.8226.781.02501.19
11582517.2121.081.14608.22
12474535.2419.560.89479.43
13544.06
LESAIS
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
LETO2
a=0.5L=4
b=0.5X bar=405
tXtStItPt
13620.89382
23850.95406
34321.07466
4441405.001.09463
5482472.130.96362.00555
6445470.120.95448.81512
7409426.781.01501.46451
8375385.581.03464.72443
9360380.810.95369.15417
10355377.520.94361.23405
11320346.790.97382.24368
12355345.601.03357.44400
13362328.79406
14385434
15432465
16441516
17482538
18445505
19409470
20375411
21360399
22355427
23320353
24355387
25362423
26385452
27432492
28441477
29482524
30445472
31409451
32375438
33360405
34355423
35320372
36355386
LETO2
435
426
487
488
505
489
470
431
410
380
362
404
396
414
500
466
517
477
452
424
389
415
340
384
400
408
485
470
513
497
441
448
388
384
373
426
priode
demande
LETO1
a=0.3
XtS'tS''tStbtPt
110911091109110910
21006106610831048-8
31105107710821073-21040
41034106410761052-51071
51095107410761072-11047
6108110761076107601071
7113610941081110751076
8111611001087111461112
9110911031092111451120
101199113211041160121119
111209115511191191151172
121232117811371219181206
131191118211501214141237
141239119911651233151227
151235121011781241131248
161330124611991293201255
171342127512211328231313
181332129212431341211351
191374131712651368221362
201402134212881396231390
211504139113191463311420
221502142413501498321493
231588147313871559371529
241607151314251602381596
251690156614671665421640
261762162515151735471708
271757166515601770451783
281839171716071827471815
291848175616521861451874
301904180116961905451906
311975185317431962471949
322061191517952036522009
332153198718522121582087
342213205519132196612178
352238211019722247592257
362366218720362337642306
2401
LETO1
MMP
a=0.3
g=0.4
tXtStbtPt
123661091.0010.001091
222381442.10146.441101.001006
322131775.88221.381588.541105
421532043.98240.061997.251034
520612217.13213.302284.041095
619752293.80158.652430.431081
719042287.9192.832452.451136
818482220.9228.902380.751116
918392126.58-20.392249.831109
1017572001.43-62.302106.191199
1117621885.99-83.551939.131209
1216901768.71-97.051802.441232
1316071652.26-104.811671.661191
1415881559.62-99.941547.461239
1515021472.38-94.861459.681235
1615041415.46-79.681377.511330
1714021355.64-71.741335.781342
1813741310.93-60.931283.911332
1913321274.61-51.091250.011374
2013421259.06-36.871223.521402
2113301254.54-23.931222.191504
2212351231.92-23.401230.601502
2312391217.66-19.751208.521588
2411911195.84-20.581197.921607
2512321192.28-13.771175.261690
2612091187.66-10.111178.521762
2711991183.99-7.541177.551757
2811091156.21-15.631176.451839
2911161133.21-18.581140.581848
3011361121.04-16.021114.631904
3110811097.82-18.901105.021975
3210951083.74-16.971078.922061
3310341056.94-20.901066.772153
3411051056.73-12.631036.042213
3510061032.67-17.201044.102238
3610911038.13-8.141015.472366
371030.00Xt
MMP
priode
demande
Erreurs
w1=0.5w1=0.1
w2=0.3w2=0.2
w3=0.2w3=0.3
w4=0.4
tXtPtPt
190
2105
395
411097.00
595104.5097.50
69099.50102.00
710595.5099.00
812098.50101.00
9120109.5098.00
10115117.00103.50
11125117.50113.50
12115121.00119.50
13115118.00119.00
14125117.00118.00
15115120.00120.00
16120118.00117.00
17120119.50118.50
18105119.00120.50
1990112.50116.50
2095100.50114.00
2111095.50107.00
2295101.5099.00
2310599.5096.00
2490103.00100.50
2595.50102.50
Erreurs
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Feuil1
a=0.1
tXtPtetabs(et)
110911050.00
210061054.1048.1048.1
311051049.29-55.7155.71
410341054.8620.8620.86
510951052.77-42.2342.23
610811057.00-24.0024.00
711361059.40-76.6076.60
811161067.06-48.9448.94
911091071.95-37.0537.05
1011991075.66-123.34123.34
1112091087.99-121.01121.01
1212321100.09-131.91131.91
1311911113.28-77.7277.72
1412391121.05-117.95117.95
1512351132.85-102.15102.15
1613301143.06-186.94186.94
1713421161.76-180.24180.24
1813321179.78-152.22152.22
1913741195.00-179.00179.00
2014021212.90-189.10189.10
2115041231.81-272.19272.19
2215021259.03-242.97242.97
2315881283.33-304.67304.67
2416071313.80-293.20293.20
2516901343.12-346.88346.88
2617621377.80-384.20384.20
2717571416.22-340.78340.78
2818391450.30-388.70388.70
2918481489.17-358.83358.83
3019041525.05-378.95378.95
3119751562.95-412.05412.05
3220611604.15-456.85456.85
3321531649.84-503.16503.16
3422131700.15-512.85512.85
3522381751.44-486.56486.56
3623661800.10-565.90565.90
371856.69
-229.31233.25
EMEMA
Feuil1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
MM
moisdemande
Aug-971115
sept.-971125
oct.-971115
nov.-971120
dc.-971120
jan.-981105
fv.-981090
Mar-981095
Apr-981110
May-981095
Jun-981105
juil.-981090
MM
demande
mois
demande
Demande mensuelle
MM3MM5MM7
tXtPtPtPt
190
2105
395
411096.67
595103.33
690100.0099.00
710598.3399.00
812096.6799.0098.57
9120105.00104.00102.86
10115115.00106.00105.00
11125118.33110.00107.86
12115120.00117.00110.00
13115118.33119.00112.86
14125118.33118.00116.43
15115118.33119.00119.29
16120118.33119.00118.57
17120120.00118.00118.57
18105118.33119.00119.29
1990115.00117.00116.43
2095105.00110.00112.86
2111096.67106.00110.00
229598.33104.00107.86
23105100.0099.00105.00
2490103.3399.00102.86
2596.6799.0098.57
moy.=107.08
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
-
TENDANCE POSITIVE ET NGATIVEObservations croissantesObservations
dcroissantes
Graph1
1091
1006
1105
1034
1095
1081
1136
1116
1109
1199
1209
1232
1191
1239
1235
1330
1342
1332
1374
1402
1504
1502
1588
1607
1690
1762
1757
1839
1848
1904
1975
2061
2153
2213
2238
2366
priode
demande
LES
a=0.1
tXtPtet
190100.00-10.00
210599.006.00
39599.60-4.60
411099.1410.86
595100.23-5.23
69099.70-9.70
710598.736.27
812099.3620.64
9120101.4218.58
10115103.2811.72
11125104.4520.55
12115106.518.49
13115107.367.64
14125108.1216.88
15115109.815.19
16120110.339.67
17120111.308.70
18105112.17-7.17
1990111.45-21.45
2095109.30-14.30
21110107.872.13
2295108.09-13.09
23105106.78-1.78
2490106.60-16.60
25104.94
LES
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
LESA
b=0.2
tXtPtetabs(et)EtMtat
19095.00-5.005.00-5.005.000.40
210593.0012.0012.00-1.606.400.25
39596.00-1.001.00-1.485.320.28
411095.7214.2814.281.677.110.24
59599.08-4.084.080.526.500.08
69098.75-8.758.75-1.336.950.19
710597.077.937.930.527.150.07
812097.6522.3522.354.8910.190.48
9120108.3711.6311.636.2410.480.60
10115115.29-0.290.294.938.440.58
11125115.129.889.885.928.730.68
12115121.82-6.826.823.378.350.40
13115119.07-4.074.071.887.490.25
14125118.046.966.962.907.380.39
15115120.77-5.775.771.167.060.16
16120119.820.180.180.975.690.17
17120119.850.150.150.804.580.18
18105119.88-14.8814.88-2.336.640.35
1990114.65-24.6524.65-6.8010.240.66
209598.29-3.293.29-6.098.850.69
2111096.0213.9813.98-2.089.870.21
229598.97-3.973.97-2.468.690.28
2310597.857.157.15-0.548.390.06
249098.30-8.308.30-2.098.370.25
2596.23
LESA
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
LETS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
LESAIS
a=0.5
g=0.5
b=0.5
tXtStbtItPt
13620.95
23851.01
34321.14
4341380.009.750.90
5382395.3712.560.96371.29
6409405.8111.501.01413.30
7498427.6816.691.15474.42
8387437.8213.410.89398.76
9473472.1223.860.98432.91
10513501.8226.781.02501.19
11582517.2121.081.14608.22
12474535.2419.560.89479.43
13544.06
LESAIS
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
LETO2
a=0.5L=4
b=0.5X bar=380
tXtStItPt
13620.95
23851.01
34321.14
4341380.000.90
5382390.500.97362.00
6409397.091.02395.64
7445394.261.13451.43
8335383.790.89353.80
9360378.340.96370.52
10375372.711.01386.50
11440380.571.14422.19
12355390.820.90336.85
13374.60
LETO2
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
LETO1
a=0.3
XtS'tS''tStbtPt
110911091109110910
21006106610831048-8
31105107710821073-21040
41034106410761052-51071
51095107410761072-11047
6108110761076107601071
7113610941081110751076
8111611001087111461112
9110911031092111451120
101199113211041160121119
111209115511191191151172
121232117811371219181206
131191118211501214141237
141239119911651233151227
151235121011781241131248
161330124611991293201255
171342127512211328231313
181332129212431341211351
191374131712651368221362
201402134212881396231390
211504139113191463311420
221502142413501498321493
231588147313871559371529
241607151314251602381596
251690156614671665421640
261762162515151735471708
271757166515601770451783
281839171716071827471815
291848175616521861451874
301904180116961905451906
311975185317431962471949
322061191517952036522009
332153198718522121582087
342213205519132196612178
352238211019722247592257
362366218720362337642306
2401
LETO1
MMP
a=0.3
g=0.4
tXtStbtPt
110911091.0010.00
210061072.50-1.401101.00
311051081.272.671071.10
410341068.96-3.321083.94
510951074.440.201065.63
610811076.550.961074.64
711361095.067.981077.51
811161106.939.541103.04
911091114.228.641116.46
1011991145.7117.781122.87
1112091177.1423.241163.48
1212321209.8627.031200.38
1311911223.1321.531236.90
1412391242.9620.851244.65
1512351255.1617.391263.81
1613301289.7924.281272.55
1713421322.4527.641314.07
1813321344.6625.471350.09
1913741371.2925.931370.13
2014021398.6526.501397.22
2115041448.8135.971425.16
2215021489.9438.031484.77
2315881545.9845.241527.97
2416071595.9547.131591.22
2516901657.1652.761643.08
2617621725.5459.011709.92
2717571776.2955.701784.55
2818391834.0956.541831.99
2918481877.8551.431890.64
3019041921.6948.401929.27
3119751971.5648.981970.09
3220612032.6853.842020.55
3321532106.4761.822086.52
3422132181.7067.182168.28
3522382245.6265.882248.88
3623662327.8572.422311.49
372400.26
MMP
priode
demande
Erreurs
w1=0.5w1=0.1
w2=0.3w2=0.2
w3=0.2w3=0.3
w4=0.4
tXtPtPt
190
2105
395
411097.00
595104.5097.50
69099.50102.00
710595.5099.00
812098.50101.00
9120109.5098.00
10115117.00103.50
11125117.50113.50
12115121.00119.50
13115118.00119.00
14125117.00118.00
15115120.00120.00
16120118.00117.00
17120119.50118.50
18105119.00120.50
1990112.50116.50
2095100.50114.00
2111095.50107.00
2295101.5099.00
2310599.5096.00
2490103.00100.50
2595.50102.50
Erreurs
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Feuil1
a=0.1
tXtPtetabs(et)
110911050.00
210061054.1048.1048.1
311051049.29-55.7155.71
410341054.8620.8620.86
510951052.77-42.2342.23
610811057.00-24.0024.00
711361059.40-76.6076.60
811161067.06-48.9448.94
911091071.95-37.0537.05
1011991075.66-123.34123.34
1112091087.99-121.01121.01
1212321100.09-131.91131.91
1311911113.28-77.7277.72
1412391121.05-117.95117.95
1512351132.85-102.15102.15
1613301143.06-186.94186.94
1713421161.76-180.24180.24
1813321179.78-152.22152.22
1913741195.00-179.00179.00
2014021212.90-189.10189.10
2115041231.81-272.19272.19
2215021259.03-242.97242.97
2315881283.33-304.67304.67
2416071313.80-293.20293.20
2516901343.12-346.88346.88
2617621377.80-384.20384.20
2717571416.22-340.78340.78
2818391450.30-388.70388.70
2918481489.17-358.83358.83
3019041525.05-378.95378.95
3119751562.95-412.05412.05
3220611604.15-456.85456.85
3321531649.84-503.16503.16
3422131700.15-512.85512.85
3522381751.44-486.56486.56
3623661800.10-565.90565.90
371856.69
-229.31233.25
EMEMA
Feuil1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
MM
moisdemande
Aug-971115
sept.-971125
oct.-971115
nov.-971120
dc.-971120
jan.-981105
fv.-981090
Mar-981095
Apr-981110
May-981095
Jun-981105
juil.-981090
MM
demande
mois
demande
Demande mensuelle
MM3MM5MM7
tXtPtPtPt
190
2105
395
411096.67
595103.33
690100.0099.00
710598.3399.00
812096.6799.0098.57
9120105.00104.00102.86
10115115.00106.00105.00
11125118.33110.00107.86
12115120.00117.00110.00
13115118.33119.00112.86
14125118.33118.00116.43
15115118.33119.00119.29
16120118.33119.00118.57
17120120.00118.00118.57
18105118.33119.00119.29
1990115.00117.00116.43
2095105.00110.00112.86
2111096.67106.00110.00
229598.33104.00107.86
23105100.0099.00105.00
2490103.3399.00102.86
2596.6799.0098.57
moy.=107.08
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
Graph2
2366
2238
2213
2153
2061
1975
1904
1848
1839
1757
1762
1690
1607
1588
1502
1504
1402
1374
1332
1342
1330
1235
1239
1191
1232
1209
1199
1109
1116
1136
1081
1095
1034
1105
1006
1091
priode
demande
LES
a=0.1
tXtPtet
190100.00-10.00
210599.006.00
39599.60-4.60
411099.1410.86
595100.23-5.23
69099.70-9.70
710598.736.27
812099.3620.64
9120101.4218.58
10115103.2811.72
11125104.4520.55
12115106.518.49
13115107.367.64
14125108.1216.88
15115109.815.19
16120110.339.67
17120111.308.70
18105112.17-7.17
1990111.45-21.45
2095109.30-14.30
21110107.872.13
2295108.09-13.09
23105106.78-1.78
2490106.60-16.60
25104.94
LES
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
LESA
b=0.2
tXtPtetabs(et)EtMtat
19095.00-5.005.00-5.005.000.40
210593.0012.0012.00-1.606.400.25
39596.00-1.001.00-1.485.320.28
411095.7214.2814.281.677.110.24
59599.08-4.084.080.526.500.08
69098.75-8.758.75-1.336.950.19
710597.077.937.930.527.150.07
812097.6522.3522.354.8910.190.48
9120108.3711.6311.636.2410.480.60
10115115.29-0.290.294.938.440.58
11125115.129.889.885.928.730.68
12115121.82-6.826.823.378.350.40
13115119.07-4.074.071.887.490.25
14125118.046.966.962.907.380.39
15115120.77-5.775.771.167.060.16
16120119.820.180.180.975.690.17
17120119.850.150.150.804.580.18
18105119.88-14.8814.88-2.336.640.35
1990114.65-24.6524.65-6.8010.240.66
209598.29-3.293.29-6.098.850.69
2111096.0213.9813.98-2.089.870.21
229598.97-3.973.97-2.468.690.28
2310597.857.157.15-0.548.390.06
249098.30-8.308.30-2.098.370.25
2596.23
LESA
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
LETS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
LESAIS
a=0.5
g=0.5
b=0.5
tXtStbtItPt
13620.95
23851.01
34321.14
4341380.009.750.90
5382395.3712.560.96371.29
6409405.8111.501.01413.30
7498427.6816.691.15474.42
8387437.8213.410.89398.76
9473472.1223.860.98432.91
10513501.8226.781.02501.19
11582517.2121.081.14608.22
12474535.2419.560.89479.43
13544.06
LESAIS
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
LETO2
a=0.5L=4
b=0.5X bar=380
tXtStItPt
13620.95
23851.01
34321.14
4341380.000.90
5382390.500.97362.00
6409397.091.02395.64
7445394.261.13451.43
8335383.790.89353.80
9360378.340.96370.52
10375372.711.01386.50
11440380.571.14422.19
12355390.820.90336.85
13374.60
LETO2
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
LETO1
a=0.3
XtS'tS''tStbtPt
110911091109110910
21006106610831048-8
31105107710821073-21040
41034106410761052-51071
51095107410761072-11047
6108110761076107601071
7113610941081110751076
8111611001087111461112
9110911031092111451120
101199113211041160121119
111209115511191191151172
121232117811371219181206
131191118211501214141237
141239119911651233151227
151235121011781241131248
161330124611991293201255
171342127512211328231313
181332129212431341211351
191374131712651368221362
201402134212881396231390
211504139113191463311420
221502142413501498321493
231588147313871559371529
241607151314251602381596
251690156614671665421640
261762162515151735471708
271757166515601770451783
281839171716071827471815
291848175616521861451874
301904180116961905451906
311975185317431962471949
322061191517952036522009
332153198718522121582087
342213205519132196612178
352238211019722247592257
362366218720362337642306
2401
LETO1
MMP
a=0.3
g=0.4
tXtStbtPt
123661091.0010.001091
222381442.10146.441101.001006
322131775.88221.381588.541105
421532043.98240.061997.251034
520612217.13213.302284.041095
619752293.80158.652430.431081
719042287.9192.832452.451136
818482220.9228.902380.751116
918392126.58-20.392249.831109
1017572001.43-62.302106.191199
1117621885.99-83.551939.131209
1216901768.71-97.051802.441232
1316071652.26-104.811671.661191
1415881559.62-99.941547.461239
1515021472.38-94.861459.681235
1615041415.46-79.681377.511330
1714021355.64-71.741335.781342
1813741310.93-60.931283.911332
1913321274.61-51.091250.011374
2013421259.06-36.871223.521402
2113301254.54-23.931222.191504
2212351231.92-23.401230.601502
2312391217.66-19.751208.521588
2411911195.84-20.581197.921607
2512321192.28-13.771175.261690
2612091187.66-10.111178.521762
2711991183.99-7.541177.551757
2811091156.21-15.631176.451839
2911161133.21-18.581140.581848
3011361121.04-16.021114.631904
3110811097.82-18.901105.021975
3210951083.74-16.971078.922061
3310341056.94-20.901066.772153
3411051056.73-12.631036.042213
3510061032.67-17.201044.102238
3610911038.13-8.141015.472366
371030.00Xt
MMP
priode
demande
Erreurs
w1=0.5w1=0.1
w2=0.3w2=0.2
w3=0.2w3=0.3
w4=0.4
tXtPtPt
190
2105
395
411097.00
595104.5097.50
69099.50102.00
710595.5099.00
812098.50101.00
9120109.5098.00
10115117.00103.50
11125117.50113.50
12115121.00119.50
13115118.00119.00
14125117.00118.00
15115120.00120.00
16120118.00117.00
17120119.50118.50
18105119.00120.50
1990112.50116.50
2095100.50114.00
2111095.50107.00
2295101.5099.00
2310599.5096.00
2490103.00100.50
2595.50102.50
Erreurs
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Feuil1
a=0.1
tXtPtetabs(et)
110911050.00
210061054.1048.1048.1
311051049.29-55.7155.71
410341054.8620.8620.86
510951052.77-42.2342.23
610811057.00-24.0024.00
711361059.40-76.6076.60
811161067.06-48.9448.94
911091071.95-37.0537.05
1011991075.66-123.34123.34
1112091087.99-121.01121.01
1212321100.09-131.91131.91
1311911113.28-77.7277.72
1412391121.05-117.95117.95
1512351132.85-102.15102.15
1613301143.06-186.94186.94
1713421161.76-180.24180.24
1813321179.78-152.22152.22
1913741195.00-179.00179.00
2014021212.90-189.10189.10
2115041231.81-272.19272.19
2215021259.03-242.97242.97
2315881283.33-304.67304.67
2416071313.80-293.20293.20
2516901343.12-346.88346.88
2617621377.80-384.20384.20
2717571416.22-340.78340.78
2818391450.30-388.70388.70
2918481489.17-358.83358.83
3019041525.05-378.95378.95
3119751562.95-412.05412.05
3220611604.15-456.85456.85
3321531649.84-503.16503.16
3422131700.15-512.85512.85
3522381751.44-486.56486.56
3623661800.10-565.90565.90
371856.69
-229.31233.25
EMEMA
Feuil1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
MM
moisdemande
Aug-971115
sept.-971125
oct.-971115
nov.-971120
dc.-971120
jan.-981105
fv.-981090
Mar-981095
Apr-981110
May-981095
Jun-981105
juil.-981090
MM
demande
mois
demande
Demande mensuelle
MM3MM5MM7
tXtPtPtPt
190
2105
395
411096.67
595103.33
690100.0099.00
710598.3399.00
812096.6799.0098.57
9120105.00104.00102.86
10115115.00106.00105.00
11125118.33110.00107.86
12115120.00117.00110.00
13115118.33119.00112.86
14125118.33118.00116.43
15115118.33119.00119.29
16120118.33119.00118.57
17120120.00118.00118.57
18105118.33119.00119.29
1990115.00117.00116.43
2095105.00110.00112.86
2111096.67106.00110.00
229598.33104.00107.86
23105100.0099.00105.00
2490103.3399.00102.86
2596.6799.0098.57
moy.=107.08
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
-
TENDANCE ADDITIVE ET MULTIPLICATIVELe taux de croissance est
constantLe taux de croissance est non constant
-
VARIATIONS SAISONNIRESLa position des observations est due un
effet cyclique priodiqueet rcurrent
Graph3
385
451
464
501
545
507
478
424
380
406
355
375
418
451
458
469
530
480
431
442
413
420
340
375
399
421
492
488
539
489
434
445
411
411
377
429
priode
demande
LES
a=0.1
tXtPtet
190100.00-10.00
210599.006.00
39599.60-4.60
411099.1410.86
595100.23-5.23
69099.70-9.70
710598.736.27
812099.3620.64
9120101.4218.58
10115103.2811.72
11125104.4520.55
12115106.518.49
13115107.367.64
14125108.1216.88
15115109.815.19
16120110.339.67
17120111.308.70
18105112.17-7.17
1990111.45-21.45
2095109.30-14.30
21110107.872.13
2295108.09-13.09
23105106.78-1.78
2490106.60-16.60
25104.94
LES
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
LESA
b=0.2
tXtPtetabs(et)EtMtat
19095.00-5.005.00-5.005.000.40
210593.0012.0012.00-1.606.400.25
39596.00-1.001.00-1.485.320.28
411095.7214.2814.281.677.110.24
59599.08-4.084.080.526.500.08
69098.75-8.758.75-1.336.950.19
710597.077.937.930.527.150.07
812097.6522.3522.354.8910.190.48
9120108.3711.6311.636.2410.480.60
10115115.29-0.290.294.938.440.58
11125115.129.889.885.928.730.68
12115121.82-6.826.823.378.350.40
13115119.07-4.074.071.887.490.25
14125118.046.966.962.907.380.39
15115120.77-5.775.771.167.060.16
16120119.820.180.180.975.690.17
17120119.850.150.150.804.580.18
18105119.88-14.8814.88-2.336.640.35
1990114.65-24.6524.65-6.8010.240.66
209598.29-3.293.29-6.098.850.69
2111096.0213.9813.98-2.089.870.21
229598.97-3.973.97-2.468.690.28
2310597.857.157.15-0.548.390.06
249098.30-8.308.30-2.098.370.25
2596.23
LESA
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
LETS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
LESAIS
a=0.5
g=0.5
b=0.5
tXtStbtItPt
13620.95
23851.01
34321.14
4341380.009.750.90
5382395.3712.560.96371.29
6409405.8111.501.01413.30
7498427.6816.691.15474.42
8387437.8213.410.89398.76
9473472.1223.860.98432.91
10513501.8226.781.02501.19
11582517.2121.081.14608.22
12474535.2419.560.89479.43
13544.06
LESAIS
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
LETO2
a=0.5L=4
b=0.5X bar=405
tXtStItPt
13620.89435
23850.95426
34321.07487
4441405.001.09488
5482472.130.96362.00505
6445470.120.95448.81489
7409426.781.01501.46470
8375385.581.03464.72431
9360380.810.95369.15410
10355377.520.94361.23380
11320346.790.97382.24362
12355345.601.03357.44404
13362328.79396
14385414
15432500
16441466
17482517
18445477
19409452
20375424
21360389
22355415
23320340
24355384
25362400
26385408
27432485
28441470
29482513
30445497
31409441
32375448
33360388
34355384
35320373
36355426
LETO2
385
451
464
501
545
507
478
424
380
406
355
375
418
451
458
469
530
480
431
442
413
420
340
375
399
421
492
488
539
489
434
445
411
411
377
429
priode
demande
LETO1
a=0.3
XtS'tS''tStbtPt
110911091109110910
21006106610831048-8
31105107710821073-21040
41034106410761052-51071
51095107410761072-11047
6108110761076107601071
7113610941081110751076
8111611001087111461112
9110911031092111451120
101199113211041160121119
111209115511191191151172
121232117811371219181206
131191118211501214141237
141239119911651233151227
151235121011781241131248
161330124611991293201255
171342127512211328231313
181332129212431341211351
191374131712651368221362
201402134212881396231390
211504139113191463311420
221502142413501498321493
231588147313871559371529
241607151314251602381596
251690156614671665421640
261762162515151735471708
271757166515601770451783
281839171716071827471815
291848175616521861451874
301904180116961905451906
311975185317431962471949
322061191517952036522009
332153198718522121582087
342213205519132196612178
352238211019722247592257
362366218720362337642306
2401
LETO1
MMP
a=0.3
g=0.4
tXtStbtPt
123661091.0010.001091
222381442.10146.441101.001006
322131775.88221.381588.541105
421532043.98240.061997.251034
520612217.13213.302284.041095
619752293.80158.652430.431081
719042287.9192.832452.451136
818482220.9228.902380.751116
918392126.58-20.392249.831109
1017572001.43-62.302106.191199
1117621885.99-83.551939.131209
1216901768.71-97.051802.441232
1316071652.26-104.811671.661191
1415881559.62-99.941547.461239
1515021472.38-94.861459.681235
1615041415.46-79.681377.511330
1714021355.64-71.741335.781342
1813741310.93-60.931283.911332
1913321274.61-51.091250.011374
2013421259.06-36.871223.521402
2113301254.54-23.931222.191504
2212351231.92-23.401230.601502
2312391217.66-19.751208.521588
2411911195.84-20.581197.921607
2512321192.28-13.771175.261690
2612091187.66-10.111178.521762
2711991183.99-7.541177.551757
2811091156.21-15.631176.451839
2911161133.21-18.581140.581848
3011361121.04-16.021114.631904
3110811097.82-18.901105.021975
3210951083.74-16.971078.922061
3310341056.94-20.901066.772153
3411051056.73-12.631036.042213
3510061032.67-17.201044.102238
3610911038.13-8.141015.472366
371030.00Xt
MMP
priode
demande
Erreurs
w1=0.5w1=0.1
w2=0.3w2=0.2
w3=0.2w3=0.3
w4=0.4
tXtPtPt
190
2105
395
411097.00
595104.5097.50
69099.50102.00
710595.5099.00
812098.50101.00
9120109.5098.00
10115117.00103.50
11125117.50113.50
12115121.00119.50
13115118.00119.00
14125117.00118.00
15115120.00120.00
16120118.00117.00
17120119.50118.50
18105119.00120.50
1990112.50116.50
2095100.50114.00
2111095.50107.00
2295101.5099.00
2310599.5096.00
2490103.00100.50
2595.50102.50
Erreurs
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Feuil1
a=0.1
tXtPtetabs(et)
110911050.00
210061054.1048.1048.1
311051049.29-55.7155.71
410341054.8620.8620.86
510951052.77-42.2342.23
610811057.00-24.0024.00
711361059.40-76.6076.60
811161067.06-48.9448.94
911091071.95-37.0537.05
1011991075.66-123.34123.34
1112091087.99-121.01121.01
1212321100.09-131.91131.91
1311911113.28-77.7277.72
1412391121.05-117.95117.95
1512351132.85-102.15102.15
1613301143.06-186.94186.94
1713421161.76-180.24180.24
1813321179.78-152.22152.22
1913741195.00-179.00179.00
2014021212.90-189.10189.10
2115041231.81-272.19272.19
2215021259.03-242.97242.97
2315881283.33-304.67304.67
2416071313.80-293.20293.20
2516901343.12-346.88346.88
2617621377.80-384.20384.20
2717571416.22-340.78340.78
2818391450.30-388.70388.70
2918481489.17-358.83358.83
3019041525.05-378.95378.95
3119751562.95-412.05412.05
3220611604.15-456.85456.85
3321531649.84-503.16503.16
3422131700.15-512.85512.85
3522381751.44-486.56486.56
3623661800.10-565.90565.90
371856.69
-229.31233.25
EMEMA
Feuil1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
MM
moisdemande
Aug-971115
sept.-971125
oct.-971115
nov.-971120
dc.-971120
jan.-981105
fv.-981090
Mar-981095
Apr-981110
May-981095
Jun-981105
juil.-981090
MM
demande
mois
demande
Demande mensuelle
MM3MM5MM7
tXtPtPtPt
190
2105
395
411096.67
595103.33
690100.0099.00
710598.3399.00
812096.6799.0098.57
9120105.00104.00102.86
10115115.00106.00105.00
11125118.33110.00107.86
12115120.00117.00110.00
13115118.33119.00112.86
14125118.33118.00116.43
15115118.33119.00119.29
16120118.33119.00118.57
17120120.00118.00118.57
18105118.33119.00119.29
1990115.00117.00116.43
2095105.00110.00112.86
2111096.67106.00110.00
229598.33104.00107.86
23105100.0099.00105.00
2490103.3399.00102.86
2596.6799.0098.57
moy.=107.08
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
-
EFFETS SAISONNIERS ADDITIFS ET MULTIPLICATIFSLeffet saisonnier
est le mmedun cycle lautreLeffet saisonnier est amplifidun cycle
lautre
-
CONSOMMATION LENTETaux de la demande faible et demandes
sporadiques
Graph1
0
0
1
0
2
0
0
0
1
0
0
3
priodes
demande
Feuil1
16220.9559.8559.8
25940.8475.2475.2
35620.85477.7477.7
45840.9525.6525.6
55310.95504.45504.45
65881617.4588
75471.1629.05601.7
86061.1727.2666.6
95971.1686.55656.7
106131.1674.3674.3
115671567567
125560.95528.2528.2
135940.8534.6475.2
145560.75444.8417
155500.8467.5440
165970.8537.3477.6
175311.05504.45557.55
185811.2610.05697.2
195531.4635.95774.2
205881.3705.6764.4
215291.3608.35687.7
225311.2584.1637.2
235991599599
245510.95523.45523.45
12.55
Feuil1
priode
demande
Feuil2
priode
demande
Feuil3
tend addsais addadd, addadd, multmult, addtend multsais
multmult, mult
1622100.9568.8568.8568.8100.9568.8
2594200.8491.2491.2484.8120.8484.8
3562300.85503.2503.2489.94140.85489.94
4584400.9561.6561.6541.152170.9541.152
5531500.95551.95551.95524.1492210.95524.1492
6588601648648612.8832251612.8832
7547701.1678.7678.7634.545824301.1634.545824
8606801.1754.6754.6706.0149888361.1706.0149888
9597901.1755.7755.7703.99798656431.1703.99798656
106131001.1784.3784.3731.057583872521.1731.057583872
115671101677677628.917364224621628.917364224
125561200.95642.2642.2598.7857952154740.95598.7857952154
136221300.9676.8601.6640.0449040343890.8568.928803586
145941400.8587.2550.5560.79456430331070.75525.7449040343
155621500.85605.2569.6586.83306948671280.8552.3134771639
165841600.9669.6595.2664.26319417131540.8590.4561725967
175311700.95665.95736.05680.09004595031851.05751.6784718398
185881801768921.6809.8611106742221.2971.8333328089
195471901.1810.71031.8894.55666608972661.41138.5266659324
206062001.1886.61047.81018.02799930773191.31203.1239991818
215972101.1887.71049.11078.41359916923831.31274.4887990182
226132201.1916.3999.61180.35631900314601.21287.6614389124
2356723017977971119.061438912455211119.0614389124
245562400.95756.2756.21157.55004036026620.951157.5500403602
a
b
Feuil3
priodes
demande
Tendance additive, saisonnalit additive
priode
demande
Tendance additive, saisonnalit multiplicative
priode
demande
Tendance multiplicative, saisonnalit additive
priode
demande
Tendance multiplicative, saisonnalit multiplicative
10
20
31
40
52
60
70
80
91
100
110
123
priodes
demande
-
LE PROCESSUS DE PRVISION
-
QUEST-CE QUUNE PRVISION ...ET QUE PRVOIT-ON EXACTEMENT?
-
IMPORTANCE DES PRVISIONS DE LA DEMANDEUn bon systme de prvision
peut aider diminuer les stocks de scurit ncessaires pour fournir le
niveau de service la clientle requis parce que ces stocks dpendent
de lampleur des erreurs de prvision;
les stocks de scurit requis ne dpendent pas seulement du niveau
ou de la variation de la demande, mais aussi de notre capacit bien
prvoir ce niveau et ces variations.
-
PRVISIONS ET ERREURS DE PRVISIONMthode de prvision qui tient
compte de la saisonnalit et de la tendance de la demande du
produitMthode de prvision qui nglige la saisonnalit et la tendance
de la demande du produitdistribution de probabilitdes erreurs de
prvision
-
LCART-TYPE DE LA DISTRIBUTION DES ERREURS prvision (m)s3s1s2
-
NOTION DERREUR DE PRVISIONet = Xt - Ptet = Pt - Xtou
-
PRVISIONS SUR LES DONNES HISTORIQUESX1X2X3X4 X5 X6 XtXt+1
Xt+2Donnes historiquesObservations futuresPt+1Pt+2Prvisions pour
les priodes futures partir des donnes historiquesP5P6Prvisions sur
les donneshistoriques partir de donnesantrieures
-
CLASSIFICATION DES MTHODES DE PRVISION
-
LES MTHODES DE PRVISIONLissage exponentiel adaptatifLissage
exponentiel deux paramtres pour une tendanceLissage exponentiel
doubleLissage exponentiel deux paramtres pour une
saisonnalitLissage exponentiel trois paramtres pour tendance et
saisonnalitRgressionDcomposition
-
LISSAGE EXPONENTIEL SIMPLEModleDcroissance des poidsIndpendance
des prvisions par rapport aux conditions initialesChoix de la
constante de lissageN = 2/a - 1
Graph1
0.10.30.5
0.090.210.25
0.0810.1470.125
0.07290.10290.0625
0.065610.072030.03125
0.0590490.0504210.015625
0.05314410.03529470.0078125
0.047829690.024706290.00390625
0.0430467210.0172944030.001953125
0.03874204890.01210608210.0009765625
a=0,1
a=0,3
a=0,5
t-i
poids
Feuil1
0.10.30.5
t-10.10000.30000.5000
t-20.09000.21000.2500
t-30.08100.14700.1250
t-40.07290.10290.0625
t-50.06560.07200.0313
t-60.05900.05040.0156
t-70.05310.03530.0078
t-80.04780.02470.0039
t-90.04300.01730.0020
t-100.03870.01210.0010
Feuil1
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
a=0,1
a=0,3
a=0,5
t-i
poids
Feuil2
Feuil3
-
LISSAGE EXPONENTIEL ADAPTATIF
]|Expr|[#>`b___})%# b'4$^" Symbol^: ;bP8&c0!"a^"!*|:!t_
,]
-
Initialisation LE adaptatifValeur initiale pour P1
Valeur initiale pour a1
-
LISSAGE EXPONENTIEL ADAPTATIF: ex. 1.5
Tableau 1.11
Lissage exponentiel adaptatif pour les donnes du tableau
1.10
t
Xt
Pt
et
|et|
Et
Mt
t
1
90
95,00
-5,00
5,00
0,40
2
105
93,00
12,00
12,00
-1,60
6,40
0,25
3
95
96,00
-1,00
1,00
-1,48
5,32
0,28
4
110
95,72
14,28
14,28
1,67
7,11
0,24
5
95
99,08
-4,08
4,08
0,52
6,50
0,08
6
90
98,75
-8,75
8,75
-1,33
6,95
0,19
7
105
97,07
7,93
7,93
0,52
7,15
0,07
8
120
97,65
22,35
22,35
4,89
10,19
0,48
9
120
108,37
11,63
11,63
6,24
10,48
0,60
10
115
115,29
-0,29
0,29
4,93
8,44
0,58
11
125
115,12
9,88
9,88
5,92
8,73
0,68
12
115
121,82
-6,82
6,82
3,37
8,35
0,40
13
115
119,07
-4,07
4,07
1,88
7,49
0,25
14
125
118,04
6,96
6,96
2,90
7,38
0,39
15
115
120,77
-5,77
5,77
1,16
7,06
0,16
16
120
119,82
0,18
0,18
0,97
5,69
0,17
17
120
119,85
0,15
0,15
0,80
4,58
0,18
18
105
119,88
-14,88
14,88
-2,33
6,64
0,35
19
90
114,65
-24,65
24,65
-6,80
10,24
0,66
20
95
98,29
-3,29
3,29
-6,09
8,85
0,69
21
110
96,02
13,98
13,98
-2,08
9,87
0,21
22
95
98,97
-3,97
3,97
-2,46
8,69
0,28
23
105
97,85
7,15
7,15
-0,54
8,39
0,06
24
90
98,30
-8,30
8,30
-2,09
8,37
0,25
25
96,23
-
LISSAGE EXPONENTIEL ADAPTATIF: GRAPHIQUES
Graph6
9095
10593
9596
11095.7218045113
9599.0779913897
9098.7509244099
10597.0737357338
12097.6492014301
120108.3658348318
115115.2889345824
125115.1201547473
115121.8215657785
115119.0658620625
125118.0430683572
115120.7742879211
120119.8223572649
120119.852570023
105119.8784324603
90114.6484044567
9598.2890138204
11096.0238485212
9598.9686054693
10597.8464404454
9098.3035823425
2596.2305596844
demande
prvisions
priodes
demande et prvisions
LES
a=0.2
tXtPtetPt
190100.00-10.00200.00
210598.007.00178.00
39599.40-4.40163.40
4105.298.526.68149.72
59599.86-4.86140.82
69098.88-8.88131.65
710597.117.89123.32
8102.198.693.41119.66
9111.399.3711.93116.15
10115101.7613.24115.18
11105.7104.401.30115.14
12115104.6610.34113.25
13107.1106.730.37113.60
14112.4106.805.60112.30
15107.1107.92-0.82112.32
16100107.76-7.76111.28
1798.7106.21-7.51109.02
1892.2104.71-12.51106.96
19104102.201.80104.01
2095102.56-7.56104.00
2195.4101.05-5.65102.20
229599.92-4.92100.84
2310598.946.0699.67
2493100.15-7.15100.74
2598.7299.19
LES
demande
LESA
b=0.2
tXtPtetabs(et)EtMtat
19095.00-5.005.00-5.005.000.40
210593.0012.0012.00-1.606.400.25
39596.00-1.001.00-1.485.320.28
411095.7214.2814.281.677.110.24
59599.08-4.084.080.526.500.08
69098.75-8.758.75-1.336.950.19
710597.077.937.930.527.150.07
812097.6522.3522.354.8910.190.48
9120108.3711.6311.636.2410.480.60
10115115.29-0.290.294.938.440.58
11125115.129.889.885.928.730.68
12115121.82-6.826.823.378.350.40
13115119.07-4.074.071.887.490.25
14125118.046.966.962.907.380.39
15115120.77-5.775.771.167.060.16
16120119.820.180.180.975.690.17
17120119.850.150.150.804.580.18
18105119.88-14.8814.88-2.336.640.35
1990114.65-24.6524.65-6.8010.240.66
209598.29-3.293.29-6.098.850.69
2111096.0213.9813.98-2.089.870.21
229598.97-3.973.97-2.468.690.28
2310597.857.157.15-0.548.390.06
249098.30-8.308.30-2.098.370.25
2596.23
LESA
demande
prvisions
priodes
demande et prvisions
LETS
priodes
valeurs de at
LESAIS
a=0.5
g=0.5
b=0.5
tXtStbtItPt
13620.9526
23851.0132
34321.1368
4341380.00009.75000.8974
5382395.372212.56110.9594371.2882
6409405.810811.49991.0105413.3009
7498427.683116.68611.1506474.4164
8387437.815113.40900.8907398.7629
9473472.119123.85650.9806432.9066
10513501.820426.77891.0164501.1874
11582517.205121.08181.1380608.2211
12474535.240819.55870.8881479.4261
13544.0560
14583.7738
15675.8498
16544.8383
LESAIS
demande
LETO2
a=0.5L=4
b=0.5X bar=380
tXtStItPt
13620.9526
23851.0132
34321.1368
4341380.00000.8974
5382390.49720.9654362.0000
6409397.09281.0216395.6354
7445394.26401.1328451.4318
8335383.78890.8851353.8000
9360378.33870.9585370.5235
10375372.71001.0139386.5002
11440380.57031.1445422.1924
12355390.82240.8967336.8512
13374.5963
14396.2385
15447.2813
16350.4628
LETO2
demande
prvisions
priodes
demande
LETO1
a=0.3
XtS'tS''tStbtPt
110911091109110910
21006106610831048-8
31105107710821073-21040
41034106410761052-51071
51095107410761072-11047
6108110761076107601071
7113610941081110751076
8111611001087111461112
9110911031092111451120
101199113211041160121119
111209115511191191151172
121232117811371219181206
131191118211501214141237
141239119911651233151227
151235121011781241131248
161330124611991293201255
171342127512211328231313
181332129212431341211351
191374131712651368221362
201402134212881396231390
211504139113191463311420
221502142413501498321493
231588147313871559371529
241607151314251602381596
251640
261677
271715
LETO1
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
observations
S't
S''t
prvisions
priodes
demande
MMP
a=0.3
g=0.4
tXtStbtPt
110911091.0010.00
211011101.0010.001101.00
311051109.209.281111.00
410341093.14-0.861118.48
510951093.09-0.531092.28
610811089.09-1.921092.56
711361101.823.941087.18
811161108.835.171105.76
911091112.504.571114.00
1011991141.6514.401117.07
1112091171.9320.751156.05
1212321204.4825.471192.69
1311911218.2720.801229.95
1412391239.0420.791239.06
1512351252.3817.811259.83
1613301288.1424.991270.19
1713421321.7828.451313.12
1813321344.7726.261350.24
1913741371.9226.621371.03
2014021399.5827.031398.54
2115041449.8336.321426.61
2215021490.9138.221486.15
2315881546.7945.291529.13
2416071596.5547.081592.08
251643.63
261690.71
271737.79
MMP
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Erreurs
w1=0.5w1=0.1
w2=0.3w2=0.2
w3=0.2w3=0.3
w4=0.4
tXtPtPt
190
2105
395
411097.00
595104.5097.50
69099.50102.00
710595.5099.00
812098.50101.00
9120109.5098.00
10115117.00103.50
11125117.50113.50
12115121.00119.50
13115118.00119.00
14125117.00118.00
15115120.00120.00
16120118.00117.00
17120119.50118.50
18105119.00120.50
1990112.50116.50
2095100.50114.00
2111095.50107.00
2295101.5099.00
2310599.5096.00
2490103.00100.50
2595.50102.50
Erreurs
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Feuil1
a=0.1
tXtPtetabs(et)
110911050.00
210061054.1048.1048.1
311051049.29-55.7155.71
410341054.8620.8620.86
510951052.77-42.2342.23
610811057.00-24.0024.00
711361059.40-76.6076.60
811161067.06-48.9448.94
911091071.95-37.0537.05
1011991075.66-123.34123.34
1112091087.99-121.01121.01
1212321100.09-131.91131.91
1311911113.28-77.7277.72
1412391121.05-117.95117.95
1512351132.85-102.15102.15
1613301143.06-186.94186.94
1713421161.76-180.24180.24
1813321179.78-152.22152.22
1913741195.00-179.00179.00
2014021212.90-189.10189.10
2115041231.81-272.19272.19
2215021259.03-242.97242.97
2315881283.33-304.67304.67
2416071313.80-293.20293.20
2516901343.12-346.88346.88
2617621377.80-384.20384.20
2717571416.22-340.78340.78
2818391450.30-388.70388.70
2918481489.17-358.83358.83
3019041525.05-378.95378.95
3119751562.95-412.05412.05
3220611604.15-456.85456.85
3321531649.84-503.16503.16
3422131700.15-512.85512.85
3522381751.44-486.56486.56
3623661800.10-565.90565.90
371856.69
-229.31233.25
EMEMA
Feuil1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
MM
moisdemande
Aug-971115
sept.-971125
oct.-971115
nov.-971120
dc.-971120
jan.-981105
fv.-981090
Mar-981095
Apr-981110
May-981095
Jun-981105
juil.-981090
MM
demande
mois
demande
Demande mensuelle
MM3MM5MM7
tXtPtPtPt
190
2105
395
411096.67
595103.33
690100.0099.00
710598.3399.00
812096.6799.0098.57
9120105.00104.00102.86
10115115.00106.00105.00
11125118.33110.00107.86
12115120.00117.00110.00
13115118.33119.00112.86
14125118.33118.00116.43
15115118.33119.00119.29
16120118.33119.00118.57
17120120.00118.00118.57
18105118.33119.00119.29
1990115.00117.00116.43
2095105.00110.00112.86
2111096.67106.00110.00
229598.33104.00107.86
23105100.0099.00105.00
2490103.3399.00102.86
2596.6799.0098.57
moy.=107.08
Graph7
0.2781954887
0.2350567956
0.0802029599
0.1916584577
0.0726023858
0.4794742957
0.5950663112
0.5841454966
0.6782910926
0.4039693826
0.2515564202
0.3925896795
0.1648568047
0.1700759566
0.1754218362
0.3515174073
0.6637099235
0.6887065312
0.2106987
0.2827605396
0.0639041156
0.2496540135
25
priodes
valeurs de at
LES
a=0.2
tXtPtetPt
190100.00-10.00200.00
210598.007.00178.00
39599.40-4.40163.40
4105.298.526.68149.72
59599.86-4.86140.82
69098.88-8.88131.65
710597.117.89123.32
8102.198.693.41119.66
9111.399.3711.93116.15
10115101.7613.24115.18
11105.7104.401.30115.14
12115104.6610.34113.25
13107.1106.730.37113.60
14112.4106.805.60112.30
15107.1107.92-0.82112.32
16100107.76-7.76111.28
1798.7106.21-7.51109.02
1892.2104.71-12.51
