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Impacts de la crise de la zone euro sur l’Afrique sub-saharienne
Shanta DevarajanBanque mondiale
http://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan
Source: Demombynes and Trommlerova, 2012
Politiques économiques améliorées
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Net exports contribution to growthDomestic demand contribution to growthGDP growth
Resilient domestic demand supported 2011 GDP growth in Sub Saharan Africa
percent
Source: World Bank
Diversification des partenaires…
…mais pas des exportations
94%
69%
55%
81%
94%
67%
54%
80%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oil countries Non-oil resource rich
Coastal Landlocked
1998~2000 2008~2010
Proportion des exportations des trois biens les plus importants
Sources: COMTRADE and Staff calculations
Hypothèses: Impacts d’une crise sur la croissance économique, relatif au « baseline »
(% PIB)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2La zone euro -3.4 -8.5Autres pays de l’OCDE
-2.3 -3.3
Les pays en voie de développement
-2.6 -4.0
L’Afrique sub-saharienne
-2.4 -3.7
L’impact d’une crise de la zone euro
• Canaux de transmission– Marchés financiers
L’impact d’une crise de la zone euro
• Canaux de transmission– Marchés financiers– Termes de l’échange
Prix des matières premières baissent
1-M
ay
3-M
ay
5-M
ay
7-M
ay
9-M
ay
11-M
ay
13-M
ay
15-M
ay
17-M
ay
19-M
ay
21-M
ay
23-M
ay
25-M
ay
27-M
ay
29-M
ay
31-M
ay
2-Ju
n4-
Jun6-
Jun8-
Jun
10-J
un
12-J
un
14-J
un60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Corn Cotton Crude Oil Aluminium Copper
Nickel Rubber Soybean Wheat Sugar
Most commodity prices have declined since May
L’impact d’une crise de la zone euro
• Canaux de transmission– Marchés financiers– Termes de l’échange– Les exportations
Exportations des biens de consommation
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
SSAMozambiqueSao Tom & P.
BeninSenegal
Cape VerdeComoros
SwazilandKenya
LesothoSeychellesMauritius
Madagascar
Share of consumer goods as % of total exports
Sources: COMTRADE and Staff calculations
Dépendance vis-à-vis de l’union européenne
20%
33%
37%
39%
59%
70%
71%
92%
93%
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
South Africa
SSA
Kenya
Comoros
Madagascar
Ethiopia
Mauritius
Seychelles
Cape Verde
Consumer-good export to EU as % of total consumer good export
Sources: COMTRADE and Staff calculations
L’impact d’une crise de la zone euro
• Canaux de transmission– Marchés financiers– Termes de l’échange– Les exportations– Les investissements directs étrangers, les
transferts des migrants, l’aide publique du développement
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Net private inflows (equity + debt)Foreign direct investmentPortfolio equity
Flux de capitaux étrangers vers l’Afrique Sub-saharienne ($ milliards)
Marge de manœuvre: Compte courant
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Curr
ent a
ccou
nt b
alan
ce a
s %
of G
DP
2007/08
2010/11
non oilresource rich
Oil exporting countries
Source: IMF WEO database and staff calculations
Marge de manœuvre: Soldes budgétaires
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Fisc
al b
alan
ce a
s %
of G
DP
2007/08
2010/11
non-oil resource rich countries
oil exporting countries
Source: IMF WEO database and staff calculations
Marge de manœuvre: Dette extérieure
10
13
8
19
20
22
24
31
31
42
59
19
20
23
25
26
27
30
40
40
49
82
0 50 100
Ethiopia
Uganda
Botswana
Mali
Burkina Faso
Ghana
Kenya
Tanzania
Sierra Leone
Senegal
São Tomé & Príncipe
Some countries are now seeing higher debt burdens
Debt total debt stock as a percentage of GDP in 2008 (in percent)
Change in debt burden between 2008 and 2011 (in percentage points)
Source: IMF WEO database and staff calculations
Impact on Growth
Low High
Fiscal Space
Less Comoros, DR Congo, The Gambia, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi
Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Eritrea, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Mauritania, Namibia, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe
More Ethiopia, Liberia, Rwanda
Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina, Burundi, CAR, Cameroon, Chad, Congo Rep., Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Mali, Mauritius, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, South Africa, Togo, Zambia
