Outils pour traiter les points de vulnérabilité par Olivier Mesly (webinaire du PMI-Montréal)

_____ ____ _______ ___ ______ __ _____________Outils pour traiter les points de vulnérabilité

Par Olivier MeslyLe 22 septembre 2016

De 12h00 à 13h00

PMI-Montréal

Olivier Mesly© - Points de vulnérabilité

AGENDA

Conférencier - portraitIntroduction

Risques ≠ Points de Vulnérabilité (PDV)Les 4 P du projectQue faire ? - Outils

Conclusion et questions

CONFÉRENCIERAuteurProfesseur et consultant

intrants extrants

Transformation

UN PROJET

Introduction

PROJET

INNOVATEUR

UNIQUE

IMPLIQUE DES PARTIES PRENANTES

CONTIENT DES DÉFIS TECHNIQUES

DURÉE

BESOIN, OPPORTUNITÉ, IDÉE

UN PROJET

CALENDRIER

DÉFIS COÛTS

CALENDRIER

DÉFIS COÛTS

UN PROJETOlivier Mesly© - Points de vulnérabilité

Gestation

Planification Mobilisation DéploiementRéalisation

et évaluation

Effort

Temps(Inspiré de PMBOK 5)

UN PROJETOlivier Mesly© - Points de vulnérabilité

Risques ≠ PDV

So-called “social risks”

identified by the Shi, Q., Liu,

Y., Zuo, J., Pan, N., and Ma, G.

(2015) (p. 489)

Demotivating factors identified1 by Oyedele,

L.O. (2013). Analysis of architects' demotivating

factors in design firms. International Journal of

Project Management 31, 342–354, p. 347

Underlying

Construct

“Social conflicts”

“Poor communication within design teams” (5)

“Poor co-ordination of design teams” (11)

“Uncooperative behaviours of clients/other

project stakeholders” (15)

“Counterproductive behaviours from co-

workers” (23)

“Distrust and dishonesty among design team

members” (38)

Conflicts

“Unfair land compensation”;

“Unfair house demolition

compensation”;

“Inadequate salaries and rewards” (6)

“Inadequate opportunity for career

development/promotion” (14)

Fairness

1 With ranking out of 43 sources of motivation listed by the author.

Olivier Mesly© - Points de

vulnérabilité

Risques ≠ PDVOlivier Mesly© -

Points de vulnérabilité

• Conflits sociaux

• Sentiment d’iniquité

Ceci est un risque

van Wyk., R., Bowen, P., and Akintoye, A. (2008). Project risk management practice: The case of a South African utility company. International Journal of Project Management 26, 149–163. The Western Cape Recovery Plan project (pp. 151, 156)

Risk Explanation

“Regulatory risk that encompasses the need for

clear regulatory framework and adequate price

increases to ensure long-term sustainability”

“outsourced information technology service

contract”

“Potential for commissioning delays due to the

rotor from France not being identical to the one

removed to Rosherville”

“Unavailability of Palmiet hydro-electric

supply”

“Fog and mist”

“Extent of consumer adoption of energy

efficiency measures less than expected”

vulnérabilité

Ceci est un risque

vulnérabilité

• Règles• Information extérieure• Fournisseurs extérieurs• Brouillard• Réaction des consommateurs

Ceci est une vulnérabilité

Vulnerability Explanation

“The ongoing ability to maintain consistent

supply”

“Aging plant”

“The ability to respond to changes in the

industry arising from the proposed new

Electricity Supply Industry in South Africa

while meeting the shareholder’s objective

for the company”

“The impact of HIV/AIDS”

“Insufficient numbers of authorized staff

for manual switching operations”

“Poor operational communications”

Ceci est une vulnérabilité

• Habileté à maintenir l’approvisionnement• État de l’usine• Habileté à répondre aux changements• Nombre insuffisant de travailleurs• Communication pauvre

RISQUES

socioculturel

environnemental

technologique

marketingorganisationnel

politico-légal

financierFinancier

Politique

Organisationnel

Environnemental

Technologique

Marketing

Légal

vulnérabilité

RISQUES ET VULNÉRABILITÉS

RISQUES

U (SM)

RISQUES = K / PDV

vulnérabilité

U (SM) – Utilité de la stratégie managériale

RISQUES

U (SM)

RISQUES ET VULNÉRABILITÉSOlivier Mesly© -

RISQUES

U (SM)

RISQUES

U (DP)

Les 4 P du projet

Pouvoir

Processus Personnes

vulnérabilité

intrants

Pouvoir

(…)Processus

Personnes

Mécanique

Humain

Les 4 P du projetOlivier Mesly© -

Plan et Processus

Impacts

Produits

Transformation

Personnes et Pouvoir

Mécanique

HumainPDV

Les 4 P du projetOlivier Mesly© -

Exemples de vulnérabilités

Source: Shore (2008, p. 11, 8). Systematic Biases and Culture in Project Failures. Project Management Journal 39(4), 5–16.

vulnérabilité

• Microsoft XBox• Guarde côtière• Navette Columbia• Projet Mars

Example Problem

Symptom: psychological

or structural (Project

triangle or 4 P’s)

Microsoft Xbox 360 “Groupthink was also an issue” 1 Psychological

(collaboration)

Coast Guard Maritime

Domain Awareness

Project

“Project leaders succumbed to the

illusion of control bias”2 Psychological (control)

Columbia Shuttle “It was a culture where people were

unwilling to speak up”3

Psychological

(control/collaboration)

Mars Climate Orbiter

and Mars Polar

Lander

“Selective perception… design team,

failed to coordinate with the operational

team at NASA.” 4

Psychological

(perception,

collaboration)

1 Shore (2008, p. 11). 2 Shore (2008, p. 8). 3 Shore (2008, p. 8). 4 Shore (2008, p. 10).

Source: Shore (2008, p. 11, 8). Systematic Biases and Culture in Project Failures. Project Management Journal 39(4), 5–16.

vulnérabilité

Source: Winch (2013). Escalation in major projects: Lessons from the Channel Fixed Link. International Journal of Project Management 31, 724–734.

Source: Flyvbjerg (2008). Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice. European Planning

Studies16 (1), 3–21.

vulnérabilité

• Aéroport de Denver• Métro de New York• Eurotunnel• FIFA 2014

Denver Baggage

Handling “Overconfidence…[and ] the sunk cost”1

Psychological (self) and

structural (costs)

New York City

Subway

Communications

System

“Conservatism, overconfidence, and

illusion of control.” 2

Psychological (self,

perception, control)

Denver International

Airport

“Exceeded the original budget by 200%

and was delivered 16 months over

schedule”3

Structural (budget)

Eurotunnel Average 69% increase in costs 1986 vs.

19944 Structural (costs)

FIFA World Cup

2014 project budget

increased from the

“Originally estimated €1 billion to €11

billion.” 5 Structural (costs)

Merck Vioxx “Sunk cost trap dominated” 6 Structural (costs)

1 Shore (2008, p. 9). 2 Shore (2008, p. 12). 3 Flyvbjerg (2005). 4 Winch (2013). 5 Flyvbjerg (2005). Sure ?? 6 Shore (2008, p. 11).

Source: Winch (2013). Escalation in major projects: Lessons from the Channel Fixed Link. International Journal of Project Management 31, 724–734.

Source: Flyvbjerg (2008). Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice. European Planning

Studies16 (1), 3–21.

vulnérabilité

Source: Brady and Davies (2010). From hero to hubris – Reconsidering the project management of Heathrow’s Terminal 5. International Journal of Project Management 28, 151–157

vulnérabilité

• Airbus 380• Aéroport Heathrow

Airbus A380

“Failed to transform itself from a

balkanized organization into an

integrated company”1

Heathrow Airport T5

(finished on time and

within budget but

with a number of

problems at launch)2

1) troubles locating parked cars

2) Signage problems.

3) baggage handling delays

4) unserviceable escalators

5) electrical problems

6) guidance systems incorrectly

calibrated

7) Failure of the automated temperature

controls.

1 Shore (2008, p. 7). 2 Brady and Davies (2010).

Source: Brady and Davies (2010). From hero to hubris – Reconsidering the project management of Heathrow’s Terminal 5. International Journal of Project Management 28, 151–157

vulnérabilité

Source: Dissatisfaction factor on the part of the client as per Yu-Chih Liu, J., and Rizki Yuliani, A. (2016). Differences Between Clients’ and Vendors’ Perceptions of IT Outsourcing Risks: Project Partnering as the Mitigation Approach. Project Management Journal 47(1), 45–58

VULNÉRABILITÉS – aspect humainOlivier Mesly© -

• Appréhension• Confiance• Collaboration• Engagement

VULNÉRABILITÉS – aspect humain

Psychological aspect

Dissatisfaction factors Underlying construct 4 P’s

“Inadequate staffing” --- PEOPLE

“Lack of team morale” ---- PEOPLE

“Biased portrayal by the vendor” Apprehension PEOPLE

“Lack of top management support” Collaboration POWER

“Lack of communication between the client and

vendor

Collaboration PROCESS

“Lack of vendor commitment” Commitment PEOPLE

“Lack of active management of the vendor” Commitment POWER

“Conflict between the client and vendor” Conflict PEOPLE

“Lack of experience and expertise with project

activities”

Trust PEOPLE

“Lack of project management know-how” Trust POWER

“Lack of knowledge transfer” Trust PROCESS

vulnérabilité

VULNÉRABILITÉS – aspect humain

Oyedele, L.O. (2013). Analysis of architects' demotivating factors in design firms. International Journal of Project Management 31, 342–354

Demotivating factors (examples) #1 Underlying

Construct

4 P’s

“Perceptions of lack of respect among co-

workers” 41 Apprehension

People

“Uncooperative behaviours of

clients/other project stakeholders”; “Poor

communication within design teams”

15, 5 Collaboration

People

“Inadequate commitment among design

teams members” 21 Commitment

People

“Incompatibility of design team

members”; “Unhealthy competition

among co-workers”

12, 14 Conflict

People

1 Out of 43 demotivating factors identified by the authors.

vulnérabilité

VULNÉRABILITÉS –aspect humain

vulnérabilité

• Contrôle• Transparence• Équité• Soi

“Inept leadership personal behaviours

(e.g. dictatorial, bullying,

Intimidation, etc.)”

8 Control

“Inadequate salaries and rewards” 6 Fairness Process

“The working environment is focused on

negative criticism” 37 Self

Process

“Lack of open interaction between leaders

and subordinates”; “Poor feedback and

inappropriate evaluation system”

17, 19 Transparency

vulnérabilité

Escalation determinants as per Meyer, W.G. (2014). The Effect of Optimism Bias on the Decision to Terminate Failing Projects. Project Management Journal 45(4), 7–20

Some escalation determinants Underlying construct 4 P’s

“Optimism and illusion of control” Control Power

“Invulnerability effect” Control Power

“Self-justification” Self ----

“Norms for consistency” Self Process

“Saving face” Self People

vulnérabilité

• Calendrier• Coûts• Qualité

VULNÉRABILITÉS aspect mécanique

Project triangle

Dissatisfaction factors Parameters 4 P’s

“Vendor financial instability” Cost PLAN

“Failure to consider all costs” Costs PLAN

“Lack of documentation management” Quality Process

“Lack of effective development methodology” Quality PROCESS

“Incomplete contracting” Quality PLAN

“Improper definitions of roles and responsibilities” Quality PLAN

“Poor change management” Quality POWER

“Inadequate planning” Quality/Time PLAN

“Requirements misunderstanding (or unclear) Quality… PLAN

“Lack of schedule and budget management” Time, cost PLAN

vulnérabilité

Project triangle

Demotivating factors (examples) #1 Parameter

“Working excessively long hours” 9 Time

“Design decisions are dictated by cost and not quality factors” 3 Cost

“Clients demand for radical and high-degree of innovation in

design”; “Frequent design changes/variations” 2, 3 Quality

1 Out of 43 demotivating factors identified by the authors.

vulnérabilité

Escalation determinants as per Meyer, W.G. (2014). The Effect of Optimism Bias on the Decision to Terminate Failing Projects. Project Management Journal 45(4), 7–20

Project triangle

Some Escalation determinants Parameter 4 P’s

“Government intervention” Control Power

“Legal implications” Costs Power

“Sunk cost effect” Costs Plan

vulnérabilité

VULNÉRABILITÉS – humain et mécanique

Hwang, B.-G., Zhao, X., and Goh, K.J. (2014), p. 704 and demotivating factors (closely associated by us with the work of as per Oyedele, L.O. (2013). Analysis of architects' demotivating

factors in design firms. International Journal of Project Management 31, 342–354.

• Un mélange humain et mécanique

VULNÉRABILITÉS – humain et mécanique

Hwang, B.-G., Zhao, X., and Goh, K.J. (2014), p. 704 and demotivating factors (closely associated by us with the work of as per Oyedele, L.O. (2013). Analysis of architects' demotivating

factors in design firms. International Journal of Project Management 31, 342–354.

Demand Nature of problem Potential Demotivating factors (p. 347)1

“Replacement of materials by the client” Technical “Clients demand for radical and high-

degree of innovation in design” (2)

“Obstinate nature of the client” Psychological

“Difficulty in understanding idiosyncratic and tacit needs of clients” (10) “Uncooperative behaviours of clients/other project stakeholders” (15)

“Financial problems faced by the client” Cost ----

“Impediment in prompting the decision making of the client” Psychological/Social ---

“Change in specification by the client” Technical “Unrealistic project demands from

clients” (2, 22) “Inadequate/incomprehensive project objectives by the client”

Cognitive ----

“Change of plans or scope by the client”

Could be many causes ----

1 Survey respondets : 172. Rank out of 43 causes of demotivation.

PROBLÈMES IDENTIFIÉS PAR LES MANAGERS % 4 P

MANQUE D’ENGAGEMENT 59

PERSONNES ET POUVOIRCOMMUNICATION 54

CONFLITS 35

RESSOURCES INSUFFISANTES 69 PROCESSUS

BUTS AMBIGÜS 67

PLANCALENDRIER IRRÉALISTE 63

PLANIFICATION PAUVRE 56

CHANGEMENTS INAPPROPRIÉS 42

OUTILS

• DÉFINITION

• RISQUES ET VULNÉRABILITÉS

• POTENTIEL

• PARAMÈTRES

• BASES DE SUCCÈS ET ERREURS À ÉVITER

vulnérabilité

• Un effort concret • Réalisation d’un résultat unique et innovateur• Répondant à un besoin• A un début et une fin• Implique des personnes • Comporte des défis • A des impacts positifs et possiblement négatifs • Génère une documentation officielle

vulnérabilitéDÉFINITION

• MULTIDISCIPLINAIRES

• MULTICULTURELLES

• DISPERSÉES

CALENDRIERRISQUES

COÛTSVULNÉRABILITÉ

NORMES

PROJECT

PEOPLE

PROCESSES

Contrôle

Transparence

Équité

Confiance

Collaboration

Engagement

POUVOIR

PROCESSUSPERSONNES

PROJET

AFFINITÉS

BIENVEILLANCE

HABILETÉS

INTÉGRITÉ

CONFIANCE

FLEXIBILITÉ

ÉCHANGE D’INFORMATION

RÉSOLUTION COMMUNE DE PROBLÈMES

ORIENTATION

COOPÉRATION

TECHNIQUE DU CONSENSUS

TECHNIQUE DU PRO

TECHNIQUE DU SVOR

FORCES

VULNÉRABILITÉS

OPPORTUNITÉS

RISQUES

SOURCES

ENCOURAGER DÉCOURAGER

POUVOIR

o Adaptation et flexibilitéo Effort participatifo Qualité de l’informationo Sentiment de sécurité

o Leadership faibleo Manque d’esprit d’équipe

PERSONNES

o L’intégrationo La compétence et

expérienceo La multidisciplinaritéo L’ouverture d’esprit

o La communication pauvreo Les conflitso Les divergences de points de vue o L’absence d’esprit gagnant-

gagnanto Le dénigrement du projet o La résistance aux changements

SOURCES ENCOURAGER DÉCOURAGER

PROCESSUS o Adhérer au plan initialo L’absence de plan de

contingence

o La compréhension mutuelle

o La gestion des objectifs

o Les objectifs irréalisableso La planification déficiente

Questions

Merci !

Olivier Mesly

Outils pour traiter les points de vulnérabilité par Olivier Mesly (webinaire du PMI-Montréal)

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