© 2013 IBM Corporation
Technologies et Innovations 2013 « vers un nouveau champ des possibles »
Claude RIOUSSET Executive Architect Systems & Technology Group
Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
© 2013 IBM Corporation2
La technologie est au coeur de toutes les entreprises
Tous les deux ans, nous demandons à des dirigeants d’entreprise de désigner les trois facteurs externes qui auront le plus fort impact sur leur organisation. Si les facteurs de marché tiennent toujours le premier rang, les facteurs technologiques n’ont cessé de gagner en importance relative.
En 2011, ce sont plus de 3000 DSI couvrant 71 pays et 18 industries qui ont partagé comment cette technologie était au cœur du changement, de l’innovation et du succès de leurs entreprises. 2011 IBM Global CIO Study
« Le DSI Indispensable »“New technologies are about to disrupt the industry.”
Industrial Products CIO, Germany
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© 2013 IBM Corporation3Source: Q1 “What are the most important external forces that will impact your organization over the next 3 to 5 years?”
External forces that will impact the organization – 2012 CEO Study
Pour la première fois, les CEO’s placent la Technologie en tête des facteurs majeurs pour leur Entreprise.
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La 3ème génération de l’infrastructure informatique, la 3ème phase de l'Internet, et l'explosion de l'information entrent en résonance pour engendrer une transformation majeure des usages.
4HorizonWatch: Top Technology Trends To Watch In 2012
1964 2008200319941981
Amount of Data Collected and Stored
Generations of Computing Platforms
Phases of the Internet
20122020-2
Source: Bill Chamberlin
Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
© 2013 IBM Corporation5
Cette technologie est l'ADN d'IBM depuis toujours
2011+ Cognitive Computing Chip 2011 3D Chip 2011+ Watson2010 CMOS Integrated Silicon Nanophotonics2010 Transistor 100 GHz graphene2009 Nano MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging)2008 World’s First Petaflop Supercomputer 2005 Cell 2004 Blue Gene/L 2003 Carbon Nanotubes 1997 Copper Interconnect Wiring 1997 Deep Blue 1994 Silicon Germanium (SiGe)1987 High-Temperature Superconductivity 1986 Scanning Tunneling Microscope1980 RISC 1971 Speech Recognition 1970 Relational Database 1967 Fractals 1966 One-Device Memory Cell 1957 FORTRAN 1956 RAMAC
© 2013 IBM Corporation6
IBM inventors received a record 6,478 U.S. patents in 2012, marking the 20th consecutive year it has topped the list of the world’s most inventive companies. IBM became th e first company to be granted as many as 5,000 U.S. patents in a single year. It took IBM's inventors more than 50 y ears to receive their first 5,000 patents after the company was established in 1911. IBM's first patent: U.S. Paten t #998,631 issued July 25, 1911.
Un politique d’investissement dans l’innovation, et leader depuis 20 années
Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
© 2013 IBM Corporation
IBM Research: The World is Our Lab
Austin • Semiconductors • Processors
Tokyo• Integrated Solutions • Accessibility
Haifa• “Big Data” Analytics• Security
Zurich• Science • Nanotech Materials
India• Services • Mobile Communications
China• Software• Internet of Things (IoT)
Brazil• Natural Resources• Smarter Devices• Human Systems / Events
Melbourne• Natural Resources• Disaster Mgmt • Healthcare / Life
Sciences
Dublin• Smarter
Cities
Watson• Semiconductors• Systems• Software & Services
Almaden• Analytics• Storage • Nanotech
Healthcare
Africa• Smarter Cities
IBM Research Labs
IBM Research – Openings in 2011
IBM Research – Openings in 2012
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Vers un nouveau paysage de l’IT….
8
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Facteurs technologiques
Social – Mobile – Cloud – Big Data / Analytics
Une donnée multiple 4V & plus consommable� Data and data management� Workloads� Discovering insights� Interaction
L’accélération des rythmes � Evolving business ecosystem� Dynamic scalability� Minimize time-to-value� Keeping pace with technology and globalization
Une explosion des capteurs… � Proliferation of sensors and devices� Demand for personalization� Just in time
Croissance des usages / Accès simplifié � Users� Transactions� Computations� Data
…. structuré par Quatre grandes TendancesCercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
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90’s80’s60’s We are here
Vers un quatrième modèle.
Back OfficeComputing
Client Server PC - 1981
World Wide Web and eBusiness
Confluence of Social Mobile Cloud Big Data / Analytics
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© 2013 IBM Corporation11
4 Technologies clefs qui vont changer notre écosystème IT
Exascale (Datacenter-in-a-box)� Massive parallelism � Flexible system
optimization
Nano Devices
1B Transistors
Power7 chip
1T Devices
Nano Systems (Systems-on-a-chip)
Workload Optimized
Systems
Big Data
Compute+Natural
Language+Analytics
Cognitive Computing � “Synapse” devices
� Photonics � DNA Transistor
BIG/Fast� Data + analytics
(zettabytes + milli / microseconds
Deep Q&A Computers
Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
© 2013 IBM Corporation12
Des Nano Composants aux Nano Systèmes
Exascale (Datacenter-in-a-box)� Massive parallelism � Flexible system
optimization
Nano Devices
1B Transistors
Power7 chip
1T Devices
Nano Systems (Systems-on-a-chip)
Workload Optimized
Systems
Big Data
Compute+Natural
Language+Analytics
Cognitive Computing � “Synapse” devices
� Photonics � DNA Transistor
BIG/Fast� Data + analytics
(zettabytes + milli / microseconds
Deep Q&A Computers
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© 2013 IBM Corporation13
22/20 nm 15/11 nm 8 nm & Beyond
Conventional Planar Device
FINFET
ETSOISi Nano-Wire
C Electronics
Fully Depleted Devices
Si NWHfO2
Deposited Si
La Feuille de route vers le Nanomètre…
Des innovations et des ruptures technologiques à chaque étape.
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Vision : >1 Tbps dans un composant complexe en 3D
Light out for off-chip traffic
Modulator
Photo-detector
Analog CMOS
Digital CMOS
Inter-layer3D vias
Multiplexor
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© 2013 IBM Corporation15
La recherche au service de nouveaux usages: Séquencement de l’ADN
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© 2013 IBM Corporation16
Du Petascale à l’Exascale
Exascale (Datacenter-in-a-box)� Massive parallelism � Flexible system
optimization
Nano Devices
1B Transistors
Power7 chip
1T Devices
Nano Systems (Systems-on-a-chip)
Workload Optimized
Systems
Big Data
Compute+Natural
Language+Analytics
Cognitive Computing � “Synapse” devices
� Photonics � DNA Transistor
BIG/Fast� Data + analytics
(zettabytes + milli / microseconds
Deep Q&A Computers
Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Exascale, une nouvelle accélération
A large class of emerging applications (Smarter Planet, high-performance enterprise), for which network-speed processing and data/compute intensive modeling and simulation are an integral component, will require significant improvement in systems characteristics(consolidation, integration, performance, power efficiency, cost/performance). These applications represent a significant growth opportunity .
System Improvement(consolidation, integration, performance,power efficiency, cost/performance)
Historic trend:2x/2years
4x/2years
Now +5 yrs +10 yrs +15 yrs
1000x
Increasinglycommoditized space
30x
Smarter PlanetHigh-performance Enterprise
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Vers l’Exascale, via la maîtrise de nouveaux enjeux technologiques.
1 PetaFlop = 1/3 rack
Software
Phase Change Memory
CPU Silicon Photonics
3D
20 PetaFlop 96 BG/Q
Racks(2011-2)
1 PetaFlop 72 BG/P
Racks(2007)
Overall Performance = 1000XPerformance / watt = 135XPerformance / $ = 1000X
Footprint = <2%Referenced to1PF system
The Next Ten Years
Source: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/08/22/ibm_bluegene_q_chip/
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Des composants au Systèmes Intégrés Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
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De l’explosion des données vers une analyse réactive.
Exascale (Datacenter-in-a-box)� Massive parallelism � Flexible system
optimization
Nano Device
s
1B Transistors
Power7 chip
1T Devices
Nano Systems (Systems-on-a-chip)
Workload Optimized
Systems
Big Data
Compute+
Natural
Language+ Analytics
Cognitive Computing � “Synapse” devices
� Photonics � DNA Transistor
BIG/Fast� Data + analytics
(zettabytes + milli / microseconds
Deep Q&A Computers
Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
© 2013 IBM Corporation
1990’s 2020’s
Video
Text
Exa
Peta
Tera
Giga
Dat
a V
olum
e
2000’s 2010’s
Structured data
Audio
Image
Med
High
Low
Com
puta
tiona
l Nee
ds
Sop
hist
icat
ion
of A
naly
sis
Exp
ress
iven
ess
Digital Marketing
12% of video views
Wide Area Imagery
100’s TB per day72 video hrs/minute
Media
Source: IBM Market Insights based on composite sources
Safety / Security
Healthcare
Customer
1B camera phones
1B medical images/yr
10s millions cameras
Enterprise Video
Used by 1/3 of enterprises
Le Multimedia: La vague majeure du traitement de la DonnéeCercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
© 2013 IBM Corporation22
After processing this data the expectation is that per year between 300 and 1500 Petabytes of data need to be stored. In comparison, the approximately 15 Petabytes*** produced by the Large Hadron Collider at CERN per year of operation is approximately 10 to 100 times less than the envisioned capacity of SKA.
Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Raw data rate: 14 Exabytes / day.
10 minutes full HDTV
One week full HDTV
20 years full HDTV
20’000 years full HDTV **)
**) ~ 2 minutes of HDTV per human on earth.
Half page
Decent Book (5cm)
Small Library (50 Meters of
books)
Large Libary(50 Km of
books)
Library of Congress
Books around Earth Equator
half-a-minute
8 hours
~ 1 year
~ 1000 year
~ 1 million years
Books 1/3 Earth – Sun.~ 1 billion years
*)
*) = 140 books per human on earth.
Univ
ers
e L
ifetim
e (y
ears
)
Dat
a S
cale
(lo
g)
Exa
Peta
Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo 1’000
1’000’000
1’000’000’000
1’000’000’000’000
1’000’000’000’000’000
1’000’000’000’000’000’000
1018
1015
1012
109
106
103
An Exabyte: What is it?
© 2013 IBM Corporation24
De la programmation des systèmes à l’apprentissage
Exascale (Datacenter-in-a-box)� Massive parallelism � Flexible system
optimization
Nano Devices
1B Transistors
Power7 chip
1T Devices
Nano Systems (Systems-on-a-chip)
Workload Optimized
Systems
Big Data
Compute+Natural
Language+Analytics
Cognitive Computing � “Synapse” devices
� Photonics � DNA Transistor
BIG/Fast� Data + analytics
(zettabytes + milli / microseconds
Deep Q&A Computers
Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
© 2013 IBM Corporation
Les évolutions majeures du traitement de l’information
Programmable Systems Era
TabulatingSystems Era
CognitiveSystems Era
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© 2013 IBM Corporation
Surface best protocols
LegalSuggest defense/prosecution arguments
TelemarketingNext generation – persuasive –call center
Healthcare
FinanceEnhance decision support
Cognitive ComputingComplex Reasoning and Interaction Extends Human Cognition
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© 2013 IBM Corporation
Days
Innovation Discovery
Industry Solutions Lab
Workshops
GTO
Multi-year
Joint Development Agreements
First-of-a-Kind(FOAK)
IBM Research Services
Months to ~1 Year
Des synergies avec la recherche IBM Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
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Personalized Medicine
Cleaner Transportation
ImprovedMedical Diagnosis
& Treatment
CognitiveSystems
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© 2013 IBM Corporation
When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened.”
John M. Richardson, Jr., American academic and author
Claude Riousset , Executive Architect - Systems & Technology Group
Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
© 2013 IBM Corporation30
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